Friday, January 22, 2021
We finished strong last week and learned a lesson the 3 weeks prior. Before I handicap the games each week I look at the schedule of games. I usually see a few I like and then cap them to confirm. Starting week 16 thru week 18 - I seriously did not see a game I liked. I was tempted not to make any picks at all. I know you look for picks each week so I tried to find a few.
After capping the games, stats showed a few promising picks each week. However, over the years I learned the best wagers are gut picks with stats to back them up. Had I laid off for 3 weeks, we would now have the #1 record with around 60%.
Crazy COVID year, so I'm happy to finish second at 57% and most importantly I made you money +$1200. All's well that ends well as they say.
Our Final Season record is below. I will post unofficial Picks through the Super Bowl for you.
10 YEAR AVERAGE 64% (BEST IN THE WORLD)
FINAL SEASON RECORD
Here's How we compared this year to the other capper that charge for picks.
Saturday, January 16, 2021
Friday, January 8, 2021
Saturday, January 2, 2021
Sunday, December 27, 2020
Saturday, December 26, 2020
Thursday, December 17, 2020
Saturday, December 12, 2020
Wednesday, December 9, 2020
Saturday, December 5, 2020
Monday, November 30, 2020
Saturday, November 28, 2020
Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Wednesday, November 18, 2020
A few weeks ago we had 4 or 5 dependable teams. By week 11 its look like 1 or two - maybe? Lotta evenly matched teams & bad lines. I'm just spending less this week and breaking the rules with 2, 3 team parlays. Back to mostly singles next week.
As I mentioned before. I don't like this weeks match ups. Parody is Epidemic. Spent less and threw a few parlays out there this week. Back to mostly single bets next week.
Thursday, November 12, 2020
Wednesday, November 11, 2020
Some of us have been betting 3 teams parlays for years. We hit and have a great week, then lose it all back the next. Others spend $1000 to win $900 on their pick of the week. A lot of us just want to have money on the night games to have a reason to watch. One thing most of us have in common is a zero balance by the end of the season. I've beaten the spread for years, but I have not been the best at money management either. I wanted that to change this year.
The plan was to spend just $150 for the season, make 3 single bets at $50 each, go 2-1 or better each week and make a few thousand by the end of the year.
We started the bank in week 5. Balance ($150)
Week 5 - Trouble
only had 2 or 3 losing weeks in 8 years. Ironically, the year I roll
out a new money management system - we go 1&2 week 5. Balance ($95)
Week 6 - Disaster
We added $55 to have $150 for 3 $50 bets week 6. Then I go 0-3. Ouch! Balance ($0)
Other Peoples Money
Keep in mind, I bet my own money on this, more importantly, I have friends and followers that do the same. Losing money for myself is one thing, but when others trust my picks and lose their hard earned money - I don't sleep well at night.
A friend of mine made me feel better. He told me he was just happy to be part of a strategy that can work and had lost less money this year than he did last year betting parlays. After all, if you bet a 3 team and lose one pick, you lose it all.
Week 7 - Decision Time
After 2 losing weeks I'm thinking what now? Tell everyone to put in another $150? A long time Vegas bettor said "yeah", not a big deal, that's what you do, it gambling, you lose and start over.
Before telling everyone to spend another $150 - I looked at the week 7 Thursday Night game and liked the Giants and the Under. I calculated that a 2 leg parlay on those for $41 would give us $150 for the week 7 bets. It Hit! The plan was 3 picks per week. I add one more pick and hit KC -7.5. Balance ($195). On to week 4.
Week 8 - Again?
Week 8 Balance $195. One thing that I hated was being forced to choose 3 picks. So I switched it up a little. I Stayed with the $150 and did 5 picks at $30. To be honest, although I felt good about the picks, there was a lot going on that week and I did not vet them as well as I should have. Result 1-4! Balance ($102)
Week 9 - Crunch Time!
The beauty of the system is that after investing just $246 (a lot of bettors spend that in a week) we survived my start to the season ever and still had $105 left in the bank for week 9. Yeah, the progressive bank works! I just need to hit more winners.
OK, we have $105 bucks. Its already week 9, we need to make some real money and don't have much left. 2 bad $50 picks and were broke again.
The whole idea of the bank is to hit singles consistently and avoid parlay losses. However, I started to look at this like a boxing match. If you see an opening, throw the punch. If you're down points in the final round, throw knockout blows. The opening I saw was Packer and Ravens. A $50 2 leg parlay pays $187.
It all started with a parlay bet Thursday night on Green Bay. By Sunday morning 6am I turn on European Golf Tour and hit a golf bet. Later that morning, the 2nd leg of the GB parlay hits and 2 more NFL picks win.
At 3pm I remembered I had a PGA bet to watch on DVR. OMG! Ortiz wins $400.
Sunday night I hit nother 2 leg on Saints and Under. Monday Night I hit Jets and Over.
Thursday Night - $50 *Leg 1 Parlay Packers Win Easy.
Sunday Morning 6am - $6 Euro Golf Pick Wins Macintyre $156
Sunday Morning Games - *Leg 2 Parlay Ravens Win $187
Sunday Morning Games - $20 ea Vikings & Bills Win - $76
Sunday 3pm - PGA $5 Golf Picks Wins Ortiz $400
Sunday Night Game - $23 2 Leg Parlay NOS & Under Wins - $90
Monday Night Game - $20 2 Leg Parlay NYJ & Over Wins - $71
Total Wins Week 9 - $980
Progressive Bank Wins - $425
8-3 for the week, minus 3 Losses - Bank Balance ($333)
That's right - we hit 3 - 2 Leg Parlays in a row. Most of our picks will still be singles, but if I see an opening for a 2 team parlay - I'll take it. It's the 3 teamers that kill you.
Initial Stake - $150
Added - $96
Total Invested $246
Bank is back up, we've made money on the year - up $87. The progressive bank strategy helped us survive a rough start long enough to turn it around and make a profit. On to week 10.
- Rick Jansen
Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip for Live Bets and Last Minute Parlays.