NO OFFICIAL PICKS THIS WEEK.
3 TEAM PARLAY
HEAD TO HEAD
We finished strong last week and learned a lesson the 3 weeks prior. Before I handicap the games each week I look at the schedule of games. I usually see a few I like and then cap them to confirm. Starting week 16 thru week 18 - I seriously did not see a game I liked. I was tempted not to make any picks at all. I know you look for picks each week so I tried to find a few.
After capping the games, stats showed a few promising picks each week. However, over the years I learned the best wagers are gut picks with stats to back them up. Had I laid off for 3 weeks, we would now have the #1 record with around 60%.
Crazy COVID year, so I'm happy to finish second at 57% and most importantly I made you money +$1200. All's well that ends well as they say.
Our Final Season record is below. I will post unofficial Picks through the Super Bowl for you.
10 YEAR AVERAGE 64% (BEST IN THE WORLD)
FINAL SEASON RECORD
Here's How we compared this year to the other capper that charge for picks.
Some of us have been betting 3 teams parlays for years. We hit and have a great week, then lose it all back the next. Others spend $1000 to win $900 on their pick of the week. A lot of us just want to have money on the night games to have a reason to watch. One thing most of us have in common is a zero balance by the end of the season. I've beaten the spread for years, but I have not been the best at money management either. I wanted that to change this year.
The plan was to spend just $150 for the season, make 3 single bets at $50 each, go 2-1 or better each week and make a few thousand by the end of the year.
We started the bank in week 5. Balance ($150)
Week 5 - Trouble
only had 2 or 3 losing weeks in 8 years. Ironically, the year I roll
out a new money management system - we go 1&2 week 5. Balance ($95)
Week 6 - Disaster
We added $55 to have $150 for 3 $50 bets week 6. Then I go 0-3. Ouch! Balance ($0)
Other Peoples Money
Keep in mind, I bet my own money on this, more importantly, I have friends and followers that do the same. Losing money for myself is one thing, but when others trust my picks and lose their hard earned money - I don't sleep well at night.
A friend of mine made me feel better. He told me he was just happy to be part of a strategy that can work and had lost less money this year than he did last year betting parlays. After all, if you bet a 3 team and lose one pick, you lose it all.
Week 7 - Decision Time
After 2 losing weeks I'm thinking what now? Tell everyone to put in another $150? A long time Vegas bettor said "yeah", not a big deal, that's what you do, it gambling, you lose and start over.
Before telling everyone to spend another $150 - I looked at the week 7 Thursday Night game and liked the Giants and the Under. I calculated that a 2 leg parlay on those for $41 would give us $150 for the week 7 bets. It Hit! The plan was 3 picks per week. I add one more pick and hit KC -7.5. Balance ($195). On to week 4.
Week 8 - Again?
Week 8 Balance $195. One thing that I hated was being forced to choose 3 picks. So I switched it up a little. I Stayed with the $150 and did 5 picks at $30. To be honest, although I felt good about the picks, there was a lot going on that week and I did not vet them as well as I should have. Result 1-4! Balance ($102)
Week 9 - Crunch Time!
The beauty of the system is that after investing just $246 (a lot of bettors spend that in a week) we survived my start to the season ever and still had $105 left in the bank for week 9. Yeah, the progressive bank works! I just need to hit more winners.
OK, we have $105 bucks. Its already week 9, we need to make some real money and don't have much left. 2 bad $50 picks and were broke again.
The whole idea of the bank is to hit singles consistently and avoid parlay losses. However, I started to look at this like a boxing match. If you see an opening, throw the punch. If you're down points in the final round, throw knockout blows. The opening I saw was Packer and Ravens. A $50 2 leg parlay pays $187.
It all started with a parlay bet Thursday night on Green Bay. By Sunday morning 6am I turn on European Golf Tour and hit a golf bet. Later that morning, the 2nd leg of the GB parlay hits and 2 more NFL picks win.
At 3pm I remembered I had a PGA bet to watch on DVR. OMG! Ortiz wins $400.
Sunday night I hit nother 2 leg on Saints and Under. Monday Night I hit Jets and Over.
Thursday Night - $50 *Leg 1 Parlay Packers Win Easy.
Sunday Morning 6am - $6 Euro Golf Pick Wins Macintyre $156
Sunday Morning Games - *Leg 2 Parlay Ravens Win $187
Sunday Morning Games - $20 ea Vikings & Bills Win - $76
Sunday 3pm - PGA $5 Golf Picks Wins Ortiz $400
Sunday Night Game - $23 2 Leg Parlay NOS & Under Wins - $90
Monday Night Game - $20 2 Leg Parlay NYJ & Over Wins - $71
Total Wins Week 9 - $980
Progressive Bank Wins - $425
8-3 for the week, minus 3 Losses - Bank Balance ($333)
That's right - we hit 3 - 2 Leg Parlays in a row. Most of our picks will still be singles, but if I see an opening for a 2 team parlay - I'll take it. It's the 3 teamers that kill you.
Initial Stake - $150
Added - $96
Total Invested $246
Bank is back up, we've made money on the year - up $87. The progressive bank strategy helped us survive a rough start long enough to turn it around and make a profit. On to week 10.
- Rick Jansen
Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip for Live Bets and Last Minute Parlays.