Wednesday, November 18, 2020

NFL PICKS WEEK 11 #TNF #MNF

#NFL Picks Week 11 #TNF #MNF
I don't love this weeks match-ups. So, here are 3 I like.
@AZCardinals
@Vikings
@Buccaneers
Gonna spend less - $50 and Hit it or Quit it this week.
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Final Picks 1 Last Parlay 

A few weeks ago we had 4 or 5 dependable teams. By week 11 its look like 1 or two - maybe? Lotta evenly matched teams & bad lines. I'm just spending less this week and breaking the rules with 2, 3 team parlays. Back to mostly singles next week.
 

 



















As I mentioned before. I don't like this weeks match ups. Parody is Epidemic. Spent less and threw a few parlays out there this week. Back to mostly single bets next week.
 
1st Parlay Kicked, But 2 Left - We'll See? 
 
ALL BETS
 

 


WEEK 10 (RECAP)

 Coming Soon...

Thursday, November 12, 2020

NFL PICKS WEEK 10

 BANK BETS


 






 

HEAD TO HEAD (UPDATED Sat Noon)


WEEK 10 TNF

#NFL  #TNF Head to Head Preview!

@Colts  (PK) at @Titans (48.5)   

This one is tricky! Stats love Colts & I Love Titans Stats IND 28-14 (42) Me TEN 27-24 (51) You Choose? I put $25 on TEN w/ Over
 

 

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 (Early Line Pick)

#NFL Early Line Pick Week 10 
 

 

WEEK 9 RECAP (WIN STORM)

The Plan

Some of us have been betting 3 teams parlays for years. We hit and have a great week, then lose it all back the next. Others spend $1000 to win $900 on their pick of the week. A lot of us just want to have money on the night games to have a reason to watch. One thing most of us have in common is a zero balance by the end of the season. I've beaten the spread for years, but I have not been the best at money management either. I wanted that to change this year.

The plan was to spend just $150 for the season, make 3 single bets at $50 each, go 2-1 or better each week and make a few thousand by the end of the year. 

                                      We started the bank in week 5. Balance ($150)

Week 5 - Trouble

We've only had 2 or 3 losing weeks in 8 years. Ironically, the year I roll out a new money management system - we go 1&2 week 5. Balance ($95)

Week 6 - Disaster

We added $55 to have $150 for 3 $50 bets week 6. Then I go 0-3. Ouch! Balance ($0) 

 

 

 

Other Peoples Money

Keep in mind, I bet my own money on this, more importantly, I have friends and followers that do the same. Losing money for myself is one thing, but when others trust my picks and lose their hard earned money - I don't sleep well at night. 

A friend of mine made me feel better. He told me he was just happy to be part of a strategy that can work and had lost less money this year than he did last year betting parlays. After all, if you bet a 3 team and lose one pick, you lose it all. 

Week 7 - Decision Time

After 2 losing weeks I'm thinking what now? Tell everyone to put in another $150? A long time Vegas bettor said "yeah", not a big deal, that's what you do, it gambling, you lose and start over. 

Before telling everyone to spend another $150 - I looked at the week 7 Thursday Night game and liked the Giants and the Under. I calculated that a 2 leg parlay on those for $41 would give us $150 for the week 7 bets. It Hit! The plan was 3 picks per week. I add one more pick and hit KC -7.5. Balance ($195).  On to week 4. 

Week 8 - Again?

Week 8 Balance $195. One thing that I hated was being forced to choose 3 picks. So I switched it up a little. I Stayed with the $150 and did 5 picks at $30. To be honest, although I felt good about the picks, there was a lot going on that week and I did not vet them as well as I should have. Result 1-4! Balance ($102)

Week 9 - Crunch Time!

The beauty of the system is that after investing just $246 (a lot of bettors spend that in a week) we survived my start to the season ever and still had $105 left in the bank for week 9. Yeah, the progressive bank works! I just need to hit more winners.

OK, we have $105 bucks. Its already week 9, we need to make some real money and don't have much left. 2 bad $50 picks and were broke again.  

The whole idea of the bank is to hit singles consistently and avoid parlay losses. However, I started to look at this like a boxing match. If you see an opening, throw the punch. If you're down points in the final round, throw knockout blows. The opening I saw was Packer and Ravens. A $50 2 leg parlay pays $187.

Win Storm!

It all started with a parlay bet Thursday night on Green Bay. By Sunday morning 6am I turn on European Golf Tour and hit a golf bet. Later that morning, the 2nd leg of the GB parlay hits and 2 more NFL picks win. 

At 3pm I remembered I had a PGA bet to watch on DVR.  OMG! Ortiz wins $400. 

Sunday night I hit nother 2 leg on Saints and Under. Monday Night I hit Jets and Over.
 

Thursday Night - $50 *Leg 1 Parlay Packers Win Easy.

Sunday Morning 6am - $6 Euro Golf Pick Wins Macintyre $156

Sunday Morning Games - *Leg 2 Parlay Ravens Win $187

Sunday Morning Games - $20 ea Vikings & Bills Win - $76

Sunday 3pm  - PGA $5 Golf Picks Wins Ortiz $400

Sunday Night Game - $23 2 Leg Parlay NOS & Under Wins - $90

Monday Night Game - $20 2 Leg Parlay NYJ & Over Wins - $71

Total Wins Week 9 - $980

Progressive Bank Wins - $425

8-3 for the week, minus 3 Losses - Bank Balance ($333)

That's right - we hit 3 - 2 Leg Parlays in a row.  Most of our picks will still be singles, but if I see an opening for a 2 team parlay - I'll take it. It's the 3 teamers that kill you.  

Ledger

Initial Stake - $150

Added - $96

Total Invested $246

Balance $333

Up $87

Bank is back up, we've made money on the year - up $87. The progressive bank strategy helped us survive a rough start long enough to turn it around and make a profit. On to week 10.

- Rick Jansen

Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip for Live Bets and Last Minute Parlays.

BANK

Saturday, November 7, 2020

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 WEEKEND

#NFL  Head to Head Preview Week 8 w/ Updated Injuries and Lines
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BANK BETS 

 

Thursday, November 5, 2020

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 TNF

#NFL #TNF Full Head to Head Preview w/ Injury Updates

@Packers (-6.5) at @49ers (48.5) (SouthPoint, DraftKings or Circa)
Projected GB 27-17 (44) 
Caution: Based more on quality of QBs than on stats.
 

 
 
 
 
 
2 Team Parlay...
@Packers (-6.5) at @49ers (Tonight)
@Ravens (-2) at @Colts (Sunday)

WEEK 8 RECAP

. #NFL #TNF Progressive Bank
Lotta upsets last week. But, still have $150 in the bank from 3-0 Week 7. 
We also won an Extra $176 on Golf. 
Starting Week (9) with a 2 team parlay for $50.
 
BANK 












RESULTS WEEK 8



 
 

Thursday, October 29, 2020

WEEK 8 TNF

#NFL  #TNF Full Head to Head Preview w/ Updated Injuries & Lines

At @Panthers (-2.5) vs @AtlantaFalcons (51) 

Projected CAR 27-24 (51) CAR has the edge statistically. With Julio back I like the over. But not enough for a bank bet on side or total


 

NFL PICKS WEEK 7 RECAP (3-0!)

We hit the 2 team parlay early and our third pick straight up. $245 in the Bank! 

RESULTS



 

 

 

 

 

 

BANK 



Saturday, October 24, 2020

NFL PICKS WEEK 7 WEEKEND

 #NFL Week 7

(Full Head to Head Preview) Updated Lines and NFL Injuries 
We Hit 2 Winners Thursday already.
 
I mentioned early I hate this weeks lines. Traps? I have a rule, when I win big at a casino - I leave. We have a saying..."Hit it or Quit it" In and out. Our goal is to go 2-1 each week. We have 2 wins already up $150. Here's my 3rd Pick for the Wk. 
$50 KC -7.5 vs DEN
 
QUICK PICKS

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
HEAD TO HEAD

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
BANK

 
 

Friday, October 23, 2020

WEEK 7 TNF PARLAY (WINNER) - WERE BACK!

Called both sides AGAIN last night and hit! $150 deposited back in our bank!











Bank


 


Thursday, October 22, 2020

WEEK 7 TNF (2 Team Bank Parlay)

I hate this weeks Matchups. Trying a 2 Team Parlay for $41 to re-fund the bank to $150.  NYG is low vig at -105, so this 2 team parlay pays well, $41 pays $150. Taking a chance with 40 bucks is less expensive than spending $150 to play the weekend or next week with 3 $50 picks. What the hell! Worth a shot. 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

With Major Injuries on Offense for PHI - Giants (+4,5) have a chance to win and the Under (45) is a decent bet.  No sure thing - but fun & gives us a reason to watch.

HEAD TO HEAD





BANK

NFL WEEK 6 RECAP (Parlay Winner)

Some Really Bad Beats, But called  both sides and Hit the Monday Night 2 Team Parlay!


 

 





BANK



Saturday, October 17, 2020

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

WEEK 5 BANK

#NFL Progressive Bank 
Bad Beats w/ KC Upset and Dak Injury. But all on me. I leaned on previous meetings, KC (by 31) & Dallas (By 19) - Not Again. OK to Lose if you Learn. We only lost $55, a Parlay would have left us nothing. Load $55 to bank - on to week 6. 3-0=Up $80 Wk 6?
 

 

Thursday, October 8, 2020

WEEK 5 BANK PICKS

QUICK PICKS









HEAD TO HEAD 


 

NEW NFL PROGRESSIVE BANK!

We had the best record in Vegas last year 72%. Average 65% over 9 years. But - there is no such thing as a sure thing!

WARNING - NEVER BET MONEY YOU CANT AFFORD TO BURN!  

Making money betting football is not easy. A straight bet pays a little less than even money.   $100 x 1.9 (-110) Pays $190. You make $90. Parlays can pay, but every pro better will tell you they are sucker bets. You bet a 3 team parlay, go 2-1 and make nothing. Sure, spending $20 on a 3 team money line to hit big is fun and if you have it - go for it once in a while. 

But - if you want to have more money than you started with at the end of the year - you need a money management strategy. If you are pulling money out of your pocket every week and hoping for a big week to get even - there is a better way...

PROGRESSIVE BANK

This allows you to start with a stake you can afford - say $150. You then bet 3 Units of $50. If you hit 2 out of 3 - you made money. You do that every week. Once your balance is twice your stake - you double your units.  What I like about this - is you may only have to spend $150 for the whole season and make a few grand by Superbowl. If you have a bad streak you may have to reload and start over, But you'll probably spend less and make more than you have been.

I am doing this myself and will post my 3 bank picks and update bank grid weekly. With injuries -  I don't love this weeks match ups. If you don't either - wait and start next week. You can start with $300, $150 or as little as $60 - just divide your stake by 3 and that is your unit amount. 

Pick Posting Schedule:

Thursday by 12 Noon (TNF)

Saturday by 12 Noon (All other games)

Those times allow us to check the injury reports after the final pregame practice. 

PROGRESSIVE BANK TABLE