OK! Here is the Full System this week. To Qualify a Team must:
1. Cover the Spread (By) Cover = Check Mark
2. Win the Head to Head - RO, PO, RZ. (Winning Team in Color)
Favorite in Green. Underdog in Brown
Once again. I did not love this weeks Matchups. But, unlike last week, 2 Teams actually qualified to Cover, and Won the Head to Head - DET & ARI. My 3rd System Pick NYG, Covered the Spread and did dominate the Head to Head vs MIN. (See Below)
Parody is so rampant, that I'm still not sure who mos of these teams really are.It would not surprise me is the Bears and Rams pulled an upset. However, there is no reason to have a system if we don't use it. I'm going to trust it this week and bet the 3 best System Picks.
Good Luck!
HEAD TO HEAD
( Click, View Image, Magnify)
BANK BET
BOOKS HAUL - PROS FALL!
I said I was no thrilled with last weeks games and thought of just making one bet. Turns out - for good reason. The Sportbooks cleaned up and the Experts got clobbered.
Example, we were 9-2 82% going into Week 3. The top NFL pros according to http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/ were 73% and 71%.
This morning, after week 3, the Top Pros dropped to 68% and we're at 64%.
One Bet and One Loss would have left us at 75% - leading the Pros.
Lesson Learned - Don't Like the Games - Take a Week OFF.
THE GOOD NEWS
Our Progressive Parlay Strategy Works!
1 Winner and 2 Losing weeks = Our Progressive Bank is UP $20.
MADE GREAT CALLS!
We went 11-5 predicting game results aside from the system picks.
(See Head to Head Below)
ONLY USED PARTIAL SYSTEM!
The System went 2-9. I called OFF 6 potential Losses. So this could have been a lot worse.
In Fairness to The System, we've only been using the Scoring Projections this year. That's only 30% of the System. I Revised the Original System - so it only takes me about an Hour per Week. I will be using the Full System the rest of the year,
Guess How many Picks the Full System Qualified? (0)
Not a single team in Week 3 Won: Rush Pass and Red Zone Offense.
HOW THE SYSTEM WORKS! (Simplified)
(1) The System complies Stats for all 32 Teams
These include:
PO: Pass Offense
PD: Pass Defense
RO: Rush Offense
PD: Rush Defense
RZ: Red Zone Offense
(See Head to Head Below)
and other stats. Those stats are not just pulled from NFL.com. They are a combination of specific stats used to complete each category.
(2) Those Stats are Matched Head to Head for each game
Example:
Favorite PO (Pass Offense) is 5th
Dog PD (Pass Defense) is 10th
Favorite PO 5
(See Head to Head Below)
(3) Scoring Data is also complied and matched up to arrive at Projected Scores. This determines how much a team WILL + or WILL NOT - cover the spread (BY)
Full System
I mention week 1 that I would not fully Cap all 32 teams.
I was just using the Scoring (Step 3).
That worked pretty well, But, those Head to head Stats (Step 2) dramatically effect Scoring projections and whether a team will cover or Not.
As I mentioned (above), not a single team qualified (Step 2) Week 3.
Qualifying
So, there are 2 Qualifier now, like last year.
1. Favorite covers The Spread (BY) 4 or more or if -4 or less Dog Covers
2. Favorite or Dog must Win RO (Rush Offense) , PO (Pass Offense) RZ (Red Zone Offense)
(See Head to Head Below)
Strategy + Full System + Great Start!
I spent days last week making the System plug and play manageable. It only takes a few hours to do now. So, we have a betting strategy that works and a proven System. My goal this year is 65% plus. But any Pro will tell you 60% would place us at the Top with the Best Pros in the world by year end. So, we are off to a Great start!
WEEK 3 HEAD TO HEAD (RESULTS)
(Click, View Image, Magnify)
Note: This is Last weeks Partial System, The Check Marks show Cover (BY)
But in the Full System (Next Week) - The team names Would only Light Up is Green Or Brown if they also win the Match Up RO, PO, and RZ. None Qualified Week 3
BANK BALANCE
______Post-Game_________
The System called ATL and the Over. I called OFF so it doesn't count toward our Record.
But Good Job System! ATL actually scored 38 without a late pic 6.
______Pre-Game_________
@NO -2.5 vs ATL
Opening Line NO -3
PROJECTED
ATL 38 NO 34 (72)
We're OFF tonights game. The books made a fortune this weekend. We played it conservative and kept a winning record. I'm Not looking to chase a Monday Night win.
The system likes ATL, but Saints win the Head to Head. 2 weeks are not enough to count on scoring projections. Falcons are not projected well in the Red Zone 41% and allow 80% on Red Zone Defense. Both teams have weak Pass Defenses and strong Pass Attacks. Over is factored at (54) but could go much Higher. That 41% Red Zone Offense for ATL scared me off the Falcons and the Total though? Were (OFF)
HEAD TO HEAD
x
We are off to a great start 9-2 82%. I would like to keep it that way.
When I saw the lines come out this week - I was not thrilled. A lot of tough match ups. I need one more week of stats to start to separate pretenders from contenders. I was only going to go with one - my top pick this week - @PIT - 3.5 over PHI. But I did a full cap on all the games and found 2 more diamonds in that rough (I hope). So, we have our 3 Team Parlay.
I Also revised the System Picks to add more info and make it real clear which ones count. This week only the 3 we are betting count toward our record.
PICK OF THE WEEK
@PIT -3.5 OVER PHI
BANK BETS
SYSTEM PICKS
x
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IN THE BLACK!
Winning Ticket!
Bank up $70 after week 2.
Love the Progressive Parlay Strategy
As we predicted, by betting parlays, even a 2 teamer in this case, we were able to recoup losses in just one week. We started with $500. After a $100 loss in week1, the bank is up $70 after week 2. Also, by only betting one parlay, at $50 per week, we have a huge cushion. We could literally lose 10 weeks in a row, hit a 3 parlay and be back to $350
Big Money
In addition to NOT going broke, we have big money potential. A few 3 Teamers and were up to around $1500 in just a few weeks.
Avoided Traps
There were 3 games this week that seemed like a lock. BAL over CLE, SEA over LA, and PHI over CHI. Those 3 dogs were horrible in week 1. But the Fav's were giving 6.5 and none of them scored well in week 1. So far, 2 of the 3 did NOT cover. We are Off the 3rd - PHI over CHI.
I cant stand Cutler, but the CHI defense played well and he has weapons. It's also a Home Opener for the Bears, In Chicago, On Monday Night. I'll quit this week while were ahead.
Pick of the Week 2-0
We are 100% calling the Pick of the week.
Week 1 Texans
Week 2 Cowboys
Posted Weekly on Twitter
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
System Results Week Two 2-0
Season Record 9-2 82%
I posted the Naked System Picks as promised. There were 3 I specifically steered away from - they are mentioned above and were posted in RED on Wednesday. That left 2. Another bad dog in week 1 was WAS. We took DAL Moneyline, WAS played a lot better, but we got a win. We also predicted ARI would man handle TB, they did. 2-0 Week 2.
Note: We steered away from SF, SEA, and PHI. So the System does NOT get credit for the PHI Cover That game did NOT effect our record.
It almost seems too easy this week. Horrible Bears and Skins giving points? Maybe it is.
Could just be a Jedi Mind Trick by the books.
"These are not the Odds you're looking for, move along."
Some potentially great teams only played bad teams in week one. So it is too early to assume anyone is a lock.
I like all the system picks, But, this is the hard part, picking 3. There are potential fleas on a few Dog's and Fav's - that I have noted (below) under SYSTEM PICKS.
I am only doing two teams for the bank, that I feel strongest about. DAL and ARI. I'm taking DAL Money Line, so that 2 Team Parlay pays 3.4 -1, to make up for not doing a 3 teams @ 6-1
Good Luck!
- Rick Jansen
BANK PICKS
SYSTEM PICKS
Play Along at Home
The System
The whole idea of this site is to help everyone win money. Beat the NFL Spread.
The system I invented 5 year ago works. The moron running it "Me" has always been able to help or hurt it. Not anymore. This year I will post the Naked System Picks and they will count toward the Season Record, period.
In my defense - I did call the Pick of the Week - Texans and it Hit!
Injuries
You could argue that I should call off some system picks due to an injury. But the spread often reflects injuries and half the time the injury report is wrong. Waiting on injuries also delays my posting the System Picks. I got complaints about that in the past from some of you serious gamblers - as it can hurt your line If you're taking the favorite.
Calling Off System Picks
If there is a MAJOR case for calling Off a System Pick I will. But I won't make a habit of it and will still post the naked System Picks with a note of why I'm off that game - so you can choose for yourself.
Bets and Bank
I have to choose 3 Teams for a 3 team parlay each week. That is how, in the past I can help or hurt the system. I pick which System picks count. Not anymore. I will post the naked System Picks and you can choose what you bet in your bank.
Advantage
This way you have the advantage of the System Picks, and the the Progressive Bank money management strategy. That's a huge advantage. What you do with it is up to you, as you play along at home, with your real money.
I will still post my bank picks (from the top 6 System Picks) and balance. But this way you'll get all the system picks early and unfiltered.
System Record Week 1 (7-2)
As you can see the System did just fine on its own. I played with it and added points to Buffalo. Because they scored more in preseason the one game Tyrod Taylor played. Then I spent hours on a full head to head matchup and bet the Rams at the last minute (not a system picks). Not doing that anymore. How did I go 7-2 and not make money? LOL. Giants beat the Cowboy and I added Buffalo. Otherwise the top 3 Favorites (Top Green) and Top 3 Dogs (Bottom Brown) All hit. Here is how "my" System did without "my" help .
Progressive Bank Balance Week 1
The good thing about just betting 1 $50 parlay a week - we can take a chance on a Monday night game, lose and still have 8 weeks of bets left.
I'll have this weeks pick up by tomorrow at the latest.
Good Luck
-Rick Jansen
There is a lot of talk about Overs and Unders tonight. Over PIT vs WAS and Under LA vs SF.
I took the time to do full Head to Head Match Ups for both games - based on week 17 2016 and this years preseason. I wont be doing that on 32 teams this year. I may be wrong, but I found traps for the most part. Its week one, so these teams are still a box of chocolate.
I did find one game I am willing to Risk $50 on in a straight single bet. Yes it counts toward the Bank.
BANK BET
$50
RAMS -3 @ SF
HERE ARE THE FULL HEAD TO HEAD MATCH UPS
(THU Noon) All Games Head2Head w/out Injuries & TNF Pick
(SAT Noon) All Games Head2Head w/ Injuries & FINAL Picks
(PST)
Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip for Live Bets and Updates
Our Money Management Strategy
As you know, I'm not a believer in
betting $1000 on one team to win $900. There are no sure things, especially
with parody running rampant in the league. There is a method though, for making the most of the money you have to bet....
Progressive Bank
This method is is how professional gambling houses turn 100k into several million. But you can get similar results with a much smaller amount. Progressive Bank cash management allows us to potentially make a large amount of money
with a small initial investment. You bet a percentage of your bank each
week. If we win, our Balance increases and so does the amount we can bet
each week, and thus the amount you can win. If you win consistently, it's like
an interest earning savings account - but grows much faster at a rate of
return.
Straight Bets
You have a better
chance of making money every week with straight bets. That can help the
bank to grow exponentially, Which is the point of a progressive bank.
Good Luck!
-Rick Jansen
