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Postgame ____________________________________
Monday Night
Going into Monday Night we are 3-3 50%. Not what I was looking for - but Oh well, a Panther win and we have a winning week at least. I predicted the CAR defense would hand Luck his ass. They did up 10-0 1st Qtr. with about 10 minutes left in the 4th - CAR (line dropped to -6) is up 23 -6. A few bad calls and 2 TDs later - I'm rooting for Luck to get them in FG range and tie it - so we have a chance to cover 6 in OT. We lose the toss - great! Now if Colts score a FG we can t cover 6 win with a TD. They do - OK now I'm rooting for our team to NOT score and settle for a FG. They do 26-26 OT. Now I need a pick 6 or 3 and out and CAR TD. INT! We have the ball on the IND 40! But all they need is a FG we need 6 to cover! Come on Superman - I'm thinking. Nope! 4th down. FG 29 - 26 CAR = NO cover.
Parody
If parody was a virus the CDC would be posting a PSI every hour, it is beyond epidemic.
Think about it? Denver has a great defense but that offense is near last in every category. The Packer had not played a good defense (Combined Opponent defenses avg 28th) the Denver D is real. So, 3 and outs make old man Manning and an offense look good. There is literally one team left you can count on to win - The Patriots and you cant always count on them to cover.
Good News
I thought about the importance of teams trending up or down right now, and their ability to cover. - IE Atlanta. So I did a little creative digging into data sources and found some great trend stats for next week that would have added a 1 Win saved 2 Losses this week. Not grasping at straws - that's pretty significant. So not giving up - getting smarter and will eventually get lucky as well - or just not get so damn unlucky all the time - let's face it - we have made a lot of great calls that shoulda covered. Our time is coming. We are not upside down or way behind. So, How we finish the season is all that matters.
Pregame _____________________________________
Week 8
I did not try to bet more games this week. I simply streamlined my data in order to view it more clearly and found major miss matches in the 7 games below. If you take a look at the Head to Head - you will see what I mean. All 7 games are one sided statistically. So, although that is no guarantee - I am not throwing up wood to see if it sticks. Old saying - I have no idea what it means -LOL.
I did not have time to post match ups on games we are not betting - but I did cap and review all of this weeks games. Makes no sense to waste time on games that did not qualify. Instead I focused on the ones that did.
The teams below "should" cover. We'll have to wait and see who will?
Hoping for a good week. ''Good luck!
DET + 3.5 (Sorry - just realized this is in London "not" KC) Live on Fox Now 630AM!
My bad - I never bet over seas games. I was in a hurry to post the picks. Also I just noticed I broke my own rule without realizing it. Projected KC 21-20. Fav or Dog must cover spread (-3.5) by 4. Lions did not Qualify. All the other picks did - let's hope they do better.
Let's see - I call "Off" the Pats projected to cover and "On" the Lions Projected to lose.
No Excuses - Bonehead moves on the first 2 games. Giving myself a "Come On Man!
I hope I can make it up to you with the other games - Good Luck!
DET +3.5
MIN -1
ATL -7
STL -8
ARI -5.5
GB -3
CAR -7
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK - VIEW IMAGE, MAGNIFY TO ENLARGE)
Bank Statement
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Posting Schedule
Thursday Night Match Up - THU 12 noon (PDT)
All Other Games - SAT 12 noon (PDT)
@NE -8 vs MIA (51)
Projected NE 31-21 (52)
(OFF)
The Stats and ATS love NE - They own MIA. The experts on the other hand are Split 50/50 on the Spread. I am not a fan of Campbell - but many believe he has turned the team around.
It will be up to Lamar Miller to keep Brady off the field. If Campbell is so smart - he will give Jonas Gray most of the snaps. That would be fun to see him run up 4 TD "against" Belichick.
But - I don't think Campbell will. If I did - I'd take MIA Money line.
The Big Problem for MIA - Tannehill avg 3 sacks per game and Pats avg 4. They lose every match up and barely win Rush Offense by a rank or 2. Pats weak in Red Zone Defense - But Strong Pass Defense and projected at 65% inside the 20 themselves.
If MIA can establish the Run it could open up the Pass - But not betting on Ifs.
Also not gonna spend the week cussing Belichick for screwing us on a cover again.
I really hope Gray gets a chance for revenge though and we have a game worth watching - Enjoy!
HEAD TO HEAD
(CLICK, VIEW IMAGE , MAGNIY TO ENLARGE)
We made a lot of great calls this week, but only 2 picks to go 1-1 50%
Read our Week 7 Weekend Post (Below)
I'm not hesitant to pull the trigger. Parody is so bad that only 2 teams qualified.
I am looking at more ways to capitalize on good calls without compromising the System.
The Good
I studied the System Picks closely and called Off both. Both Failed to cover.
So is the System slipping? (No - See Below)
I went ahead and Bet an Non System Pick that Won big - SEA.
The Bad
I gave back the SEA win betting on ATL.
System told me ATL could run all over the Titans - they chose not to in the Red Zone - Result 2 INTs and they did not cover.
In Our Defense
Penalties called over 100 yds worth of Runs and they missed 2 FGs. But the System told me ahead that ATL would have trouble passing on TEN. My bad - not the System.
Refinement
I will no longer count on a team to see strengths and weaknesses if they have failed to in the recent past. ATL had failed to do so in the past. (See 4. Intangibles below)
The Process
The Data process is faster than ever. I was not rushed this week to finish the Match Ups on time. This allowed me to study each game pretty closely.
The System
Each week I Tweak the system just a little as needed. Like slightly adjusting the fuel in a Formula 1 race car. There are a few main categories I use to determine a System Pick. Offensive Line was a Big factor until late last year. I have added that back as a factor in qualifying based on data.
Factors
There are 4 Main Factors in selecting a team to Bet
1. Head to Head Match Up
2. Spread Cover
3. Key Injuries
4. Intangibles (Recent Performance)
1 -3 are performing well.
1. Head to Head Match Up (Performing Well)
Adding Offensive Line Match Up back.
>The Ravens won Off Line match up big vs Cards and ARI did not cover.
4. Intangibles
4 is the
Tricky One. But Not so Much anymore. I take Gut out of it. I listen to
my gut but then I look to substantiate any reasons to re inspect the
System Pick or take a 2nd look at a Non Pick.
This
week I will be looking closely at Recent Performance - Not the Recent
Stats but whether or Not the team will utilize the strength found in the
Match up.
For Instance:
>ARI + 3 for 3 and Outs vs BAL. ARI did not capitalize on those 3 and outs vs BAL.
>ARI did the same vs PIT I spotted it ahead this time.
As you can see its just a matter of refining the games down and squeezing the juice out of each weeks match ups. We should find 3 or 4 a week.
FINAL BANK STATEMENT WEEK 7
POST GAME
FINAL ARI 26 BAL 18 (44)
If you watched - you know Ravens dominated and led first half. Then it looked like Cards were gonna cover. In the end ARI by (8). Original Spread ARI (-8) The total looked like it would go way under 1st half. 1 more TD in the 4th and it goes over (50) .
I'm very glad we stayed OFF this game.
_____________________________________________________
@ARI -10 vs BAL (50)
OFF
This game has more angles than a protractor.
Cardinals
Win Pass Match Up and are 69% in the Red Zone
but
Ravens
Projected to Sack Palmer 3 times and only allow 43% in Red Zone
Cardinals
Win the Pass Defense Match Up big
I expect them to pick Flacco twice tonight.
but
Ravens
Offensive Line Wins Big and Forsett can Run.
That Run game could open up the passing game to Steve Smith Sr.
Originally I gave extra points to Cards for potential 3 and Outs by Ravens as they lose on Pass Offense. Then I Looked at last weeks blog. Cards got a ton of 3 and outs from PIT and did nothing with them. And the Steelers did not win the Offensive Line like the Ravens do in this Match Up.
I went ahead and gave ARI 3 points for Flacco picks, but gave Ravens 4 with a healthy Steve Smith. That would make it 31-24 , With the Line moving to ARI (-10) Cards would not cover. ARI is "Not" a System Pick. If Cards do get 3 and Outs and Picks from Ravens they should cover.
As you can see this is good game to pass on tonight. We were already Off but wanted to give you as much info as possible for tonight.
Fun facts while you're watching:
Cardinals Horrible Punter (Avg 39 yds)
Ravens Great Punter (Avg 49 yds)
HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP
x
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POSTGAME_________________
System Pick LOSS
ATL -6 @ Titans (BANK BET)
Note: I apologize, this was a Bank Bet that counts toward the Record and bank total. But is was "not" a System Pick. It did not qualify and I did not mean to list it as one. .
Final ATL 10 -7
Really?
1st Half
I predicted the Falcons could Run all over the Titans. They did. But penalties called back several 30 yard Run plays. Then they abandon the Run on crucial 3rd and 4th downs. Some nice Runs and a Pass get them inside the 20. In the red Zone They Pass? - Result - INT.
In the 2nd half they Return to the Run but Penalties again call back huge gains. A TD to make it 17-10 (spread -6) is called a foot short. In the Red Zone (from a yard out) they "Pass! Result - INT.
In spite of all this we would have still covered if not for 2 Missed FGs!
We can call it perfect and still lose sometimes.
_________________________________________________
Impossible?
Parody is epidemic in the NFL. It is now considered impossible by the experts to go 60% or better against the NFL Spread. That's OK! I Love a good challenge. Tell me something is impossible and I that just makes it worth doing even more.
We've done this better than anyone for 4 years. So this is like a progressive slot machine. If you don't quit - you cant loose. I refined the system even further this week. I will go 60% plus this year - just to prove it can be done. I Can't wait for next week.
Take a look below at how well we are calling these games. We know what should happen - that's half the battle. The hardest part is guessing what will? It's not easy - but - it's not impossible either.
Week 7 Report Card
It's just a matter of translating what we are correctly predicting into more winning tickets.
Here's How Our System did Overall so far This Week. (Pretty Damn Good Calls)
+ SEA - Predicted SeaHawks Blow Out (SEA 20-3)
+ Called Off the Bills (Lost to JAC)
+ Projected Vikings to cover -2.5 (MIN by 9)
+ Called Miss Match Stronger D Line and Pass Def STL (STL 24 CLE 6)
+ Called Off the Colts (Saints Won Outright)
+ Called Off PIT (KC Won Outright)
+ Called Off a Texans team with Foster back - (MIA Won Big)
+ Called Off NE -9 - Projected Score (30-24) Final (30-23)
+ Predicted TB's Doug Martin would Factor vs WAS ( Rushed for 136 yds!) TB covered.
+ Predicted OAK Beats SD (OAK 37-6 3rd)
+ Called Off NYG -3.5 (NYG 27-20) If you watched you were glad I stayed off. I'll Take a +
+ Called both sides CAR to Cover and the Under.
+ Called OFF ARI -8.5 on SAT. ARI by 8.
PREGAME_________________
We only have 2 Bank Bets this week. 1 is in the bag - a win with SEA. The other is ATL. I am not trying to be super careful - this week just features a lot of close games that did not quality as system picks. Two that did are have intangibles that called me off.
System Pick OFF
Steelers -2.5 @ KC
PIT should Roll all over KC with Bryant back & projected at 73% in the Red Zone. Landry Jones has 2 TDs 0 INTs - they should Sack Smith and produce 3 and outs. I like them even more now - giving less than a TD.
However, I swore off betting on Todd Haley's offense. He was fired by KC for doing a Lousy job Been horrible this yr too and KC knows his tendencies. I was gonna still bet PIT - But - they lose the Offensive Line match up BIG and I do not like the way running back Bell shops around for an opening on the way to the hole. I just have visions of him caught behind the line. Also KC is a team desperate for a win at home in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Jones looked good last week - But may not be ready for all that.
Steelers are statistically a solid System Pick - Not risking a loss.
You make the call though with your cash
System Pick OFF
Cardinals -8.5 vs Ravens
ARI wins the Pass Offense match up big and BAL loses it big. But the Ravens Offensive Line matches up to dominate the Cards Def Line - Rush Off too and Forsett has mad skills. That might not be enough to call off - but the Spread (line) is ARI -8.5. They re only projected at 56% in the Red Zone and do not win the Rush Offense match up to run out the clock and cover 9 points with 2 minutes left if needed.
Cardinals are statistically a solid System Pick - Not risking a loss.
You make the call though with your cash
System Pick ON
ATL -6 @ Titans (BANK BET)
I may be wrong - But - All the pieces fall in place for me with this game.
Mariota is Out for TEN. Yes the falcons have a weak Pass Defense - But - Titans Pass Offense is 25th with Mariota. Titans back up QB Mettenberger is decent but 8 TDs and 7 INTs. More importantly 19 sacks in his short 7 game career. I'm guessing an Offensive Line with a mobile QB like Mariota may not adjust immediately to a slow pocket passer. The Titans Offensive Line is ranked 29th!
The 10th Ranked Atlanta Pass Offense loses the Match up to the Titans 2nd ranked Pass Defense. But only by 8 ranks - both are top 10. BTW although the Falcons schedule strength is a weak 24th. The Titans are 30th. The real key for me though is the #1 Rush Offense of Atlanta vs the 30th Ranked Rush Defense of TEN. Freeman can run all over them and open up the Pass for Ryan. Falcons offense is projected 74% in the Red Zone. So, I expect them to take a nice lead and run out the clock at the end to cover less than a TD ATL -6.
Falcons are do not Qualify as a System Pick but are my 2nd and last Ban Bet of the Week.
You make the call though with your cash.
BANK BET RECEIPT
HEAD TO HEAD ALL GAMES
(CLICK - VIEW IMAGE - MAGNIFY TO ENLARGE)
Post Game
(WIN) Final SEA 20-3
Good start. No smack. Staying humble. On to the weekend.
________________________
SEA -6 @SF (42)
PICK > SEA -6
PROJECTED SEA 30 SF 10
OFF - OVER UND
SEA would have been a system pick if not for a poor Red Zone Offense. However, SF has a very weak Red Zone Defense and is near last in every Defensive category.
Kaepenick never learned how to throw a football - he lofts the ball. Can't do that against talented corners. I'm betting the SEA secondary has 2 or 3 INTs before they are done with him.
Lynch is back vs a very weak SF Rush Def - his success running should open up the Pass Game for Wilson.
I am not playing fast and lose with the Bank money. So in spite of not being an actual System Pick - the Hawks are projected to cover and I feel this is a solid pick.
Just to be clear - SEA does "NOT" meet the full standard I'm using to pick winners from here on out. This is a Bank Bet and counts toward our Bank and Record though.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
Well, this is the first time we have ever fallen below 50% in our history. Only now - when we put it out there for everyone to see. LOL. I guess I should be proud. The fact that we have never experienced what every other handy-capper goes through each month - says a lot about the consistency of our system.
In case you're wondering - I'm not frantic or confused. In fact I have never seen the Data more clearly than I do going into the week. There are trends in common with the teams winning and losing that I have spotted in the data. I will use that information this week. Not changing the system - just the opposite - learning to follow it closer than ever. There will always be weeks when some games defy the stats - but in the long run - a horse is a horse, and a dog is a dog.
Look at last weeks losses. 3 teams dominated as projected then gave it away in the 2nd half. ATL, ARI, NE - There's 3 losses. 2 games involved freak injuries Titans (Marriotta- Knee - could barely walk 2nd half) and Patriots (Edelman - Finger - 3 drops and a Fumble for TD) both those injuries cost us covers. Also, The system called 2 winners I called off. Bengals and Panthers. It also projected the winner last night to go 2-1 for the last 3 Monday/Thursday Games.
"So what's Wrong?...... Nothing! On to Week 7!
As always, in spite of my confidence - I will remind you that this is gambling. There is no such thing as a sure thing or Perfect System. I do care though, and hate the idea of any of you losing a dime on my account. Working hard to make that up to you.
CURRENT BANK STATEMENT
I do not trust either team tonight and neither qualified as a System Pick or Bank Bet.
Here's Tonight's Head to Head Match Up.
@PHI -3.5 vs NYG (51)
Projected PHI 31 NYG 20 (51)
If the spread is close as the odds-makers predict:
PHI 28-24 (52) ?
Notes:
Both Pass Defenses are so weak - they could open up the run for both teams.
Bradford can be so bad it keeps me from betting on Eagles.
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POST GAMES
No bad picks this week - just got burned. But - I spent way too much time posting charts that no one really cares about. Going black and white next week. Just Picks and Lines and Totals. That's what everyone wants anyway. More time to study the data myself and make good picks - filter the cream. Little pissed, but not down about any of this. Our Projected scores were super close on a lot of games. The system is working - Look at Atlanta and Arizona - absolute domination - as predicted - then fail to cover. I'm seeing more tells in the stats tho and will use them next week. Thank you Vikings - Go Pats! Hope Belichick doesn't burn me again. If they cover we are down like $50 for the year (be even if not for a parlay bet). If NE Covers we are at 52% on the year. Not the end of the world. If not - 50% is 5% above the average Pro that charges. Lotta season left. 2/3rds of the season still ahead of us .
_______________________
Here are the 4 new bets for the
Weekend. The Atlanta loss counts and was recorded on the Bank Statement
(below). The only Dicey pick is Vikings as they do not Qualify as a
system pick or win the Offensive Matchups. That Pick based on 3 and Outs
by KC without Charles and success by Vikings passing vs weak KC Pass
Def.
LIVE UPDATES
MIN -3.5- We were right - KC no Offense without Charges - But stats also right about NO MIN Offense.Vikings 3-0.They Run all yr then pas in Red Zone? OK Now back to Peterson! 10-0, 2nd half - 13-0 KC Threatens inside 10 - Vikings Hold on 4th and 1 HUGE! Vikings offense letting them hang around - 13-10 not covering now? Missed pass for 1st but make FG MIN 16-10 just gotta hold them for 4 plays? Were we right can we stop them w/out Charles?
KC Kelce to the 50! FUMBLE VIKINGS BALL! can they run it out 4:35 4TH. long pass on 3rd - bonehead call- KC ball 2:17 4th on own 30? MIN Holds on 4th! Back Up RB Fumbles 16-10Vikings Win!
ARI -3.5 We were right- Haley's Offense is Horrible - BUT - Cards not taking advantage - Letting PIT hang around - Missed FG 7-3. .Palmer's missing open receivers - gives 7 away. ARI chokes in red zone again 10-3. Vick hurt Landry Jones in - TD to Bryant! PIT 12-10. Palmer still missing open receivers - now sacked. FG 18-13 PIT. Cards need to take the game back.. Palmer driving inside PIT 30 - Picked PIT Ball! Bryant takes a short slant the distance - his return makes huge difference for PIT. BUT hang this one n Palmer he lost it for Cards. ARI dominated and let them hang around - Fatal mistake. PIT 25-14
TEN -1 - Damn! Jonas Grey active for MIA - No way I touch this game knowing he's it in it. Dirty Hit - They just took out Marriotta's Knee! Kid's tough - didn't even miss a play - but Limping. BAM! there's our predicted Pass DEF by TEN - Big Pick!
Titan's stripped MIA Running all over them 17-3. Titans threaten - But Marcus immobile - taking sack. Pick 6 - MIA running away with it 24-. McCluster is the man! TD! 24-10 still have a chance. OK stats said Titans Pas Def could Dominate - Sack! McCluster return inside MIA 40!
TE Open over middle for TD diving Pick. MIA ball - now threatening to put it away. Go find the car its over MIA 38-10
NE -9
How many time have we seen this? > The spread is Patriots - about 10. The Patriots are covering. With under 5 minutes left in the game - Patriots do not get a first down or make any real effort to run out the clock on 2 separate possessions. Then they just happen to allow a late score to blow the cover. I'm sorry but I've watched this happen so many times I truly believe that Belichick may have a deal on the side with a bookie. Never giving more than 7 ever again with Patriots. I'm not crazy and know that is unlikely --but it is a much too common occurrence by a coach that doesn't do anything by accident. .
Once again this weekend a bizarre injury effects the outcome of a game. Edelman breaks his finger and costs us at least one TD (and the cover) . What a weekend!
Some Nice Dirt on This Weeks Picks from Reid:
"Like the picks . Bruce Arians would love to go into Pitt and win.
Steelers fired him. I think patriots go for the throat on whisteblowing
colts. They will pay in their own house for deflategate bullshit. Titans
are better than their record. Pf 102 pa 91. Doubt they lose 3 in row at
home. Good luck Rick"
I didn't think about any of that - Great Stuff man!
BANK BETS
Re: BANK BETS
Good Question in Our "Comment" Section (bottom of each blog post)
From Reid:
"Hi Rick, looks like Vikings are system pick with projected score 31-10 ?
Did you write they are not a system pick this week? Please advise"
Answer:
Thanks for the ? Regarding Vikings. A System Pick means the Team
1. Dominated the Head to Head Match up
AND
2. Is projected to Covers the Line by 4 or more.
MIN did "NOT" win the Match Up by enough to be a System Pick (See Chart Above)
ON THE LEFT OFFENSE
X R - RUN -5 (LOST BY 5 RANKS)
X P - PASS 1 (WON BY ONLY 1 RANK) MIN PASS OFF 31ST - KC PASS DEF 32ND.
RZ - RED ZONE ( PROJECTED TO SCORE TDs INSIDE 20 67% OF TIME)- STRONG!
ON THE RIGHT DEFENSE VS KC
R - RED ZONE DEF ( ONLY PROJECTED TO ALLOW 47% TDs) STRONG!
P - PASS DEF ( -20 KC ) STRONG!
R - RUN (+11 KC) KC Wins that - This does "NOT" allow for Loss of RB Charles*
*The Loss of Jamal doesn't change the Rank Match Up - But is factored into the projected Score though, and Projected 3 and OUTs by KC. If
a Back Up RB steps up - MIN R Rush Def is weak vs Run. This could Kill
the whole premise of the BET.- open up pass for Smith (KC Points) and
eliminate 3 and OUts by KC which account for some of Vikings
projected points and cover. The good news is - MIN dominates on Pass
DEF and both side of the Red Zone vs KC so we should be OK.
If
a Team has the Word (BET) next to it - it is a "Bank" Bet and counts
towards our "Record" and the "Virtual Bank" whether it is a System Pick
or Not. In some cases a team may NOT dominate match up - but if
projected to cover spread by a large enough margin - may become a BANK
(BET). In the case of the Vikings - They did "NOT" dominate Match UP
enough - BUT - Are Projected to Cover BIG 31-10.
I
mentioned it is a "Dicey" pick - statistically - only because I would
not normally give points on a team that does not dominate R- Running or
P- Passing on Offense. I've always thought though that Jamal Charles
"is" KC and if he ever gets hurt - KC is dead in the water. We'll find
out Sunday if that is true.
BANK STATEMENT
OTHER GAMES
(Click - View Image - Magnify to Enlarge)
BUF
I
love E.J.Manuel and the Bills to Rock Bengals this week - But BUF not
did qualify as a pick and Tyrod Taylor is out. Scoring projections favor CIN
(very weak schedule so far though).
BAL
Ravens
were the first team to ever win every single category in a Match Up -
but -Huge injuries - including Smith, Forsett and Dumervill made me call
off.
JAC vs HOU
Should
be a fun game - got it 31-31. Jaguars win the Run, Pass and Red Zone
match up. But - Foster and Shorts back for Hoyer. Should be a good game
for 2 bad teams.
POSTGAME
No Apologies: If you saw the absolute domination the Falcons Offense was capable of in the first half - you can see why the system called it the way it did. ATL defense played great 1st half, Rush Def held up too. They just got worn out. ATL should have scored 28 1st half easy. Saints -5, Falcons +5 Turnover Ratio coming in. ATL 5 fumbles - 3 lost. The Saints Pass and Red Zone success projected (below) wasn't even the key. If you take away the 5 fumbles - Saints score about 24 - Falcons 35+ - just as projected. Over It. On to the weekend!
____________________________________
ATL -3.5 @NO (51.5)
PICK ATL -3.5
OFF OVER UNDER
I kind of feel like one of the suits walking off the cliff in the Apple Lemmings commercial with this pick. Everyone is on the Falcons. If Saints are going to win another game - this is a good opportunity - Home Network Night Game. Payton vs Rookie Coach. However, stats say they wont and that ATL will run rampant on the weak NO defense. I do look for Brees to find the end zone 2 or 3 times - but for the Falcons to do so easily.
The match up shows ATL Rush Def 9th vs 20th Saints Rush Offense. That will slow down Brees if true. Hope so, and we don't get burned. Falcon were terrible vs run last year. Going with System ATL -3.5. Could be a great game. I'll be happy to win by 4 if it is.
Caution: The Projected success for Saints Passing and Red Zone Offense (below) maybe a sign to pull off this game. The complete Offensive Domination by ATL in the match up kept me on it. If Saints cover - I will respect that indicator even more in this weekend.
Match Up
The Numbers reflect the difference in rank for each category.
ATL Run Offense (2nd) was 28 Ranks better than NO Rush Defense (30th) etc.
The Red Zone % is projected TDs inside 20 vs Opponent.
Official Bank Bet
(Click then View Image to Magnify)
This Week 4-2 67%
It's Finally all coming together for us. Spent a lot of time on bet strategy early this year. I had to get back into the groove of reading the game data. By the time I get all the data done (It takes a lot less time than it used to) I still need to carefully review which picks we go with. Now that I am capping every game - we can be more selective. I did a better job of that this week - But - not nearly good enough (see Cutting Our Losses below). Next year we'll have a team doing all the data and I'll spend all my time just reviewing it.. I have all I need now though, and feel great moving forward.
Week 5 Bank Results
(Click to Enlarge then View Image to Magnify)
Cutting Our Losses
We had two losses this week that could have easily been avoided by following our normal protocol. BUF and ATL were not projected to cover (See "By" column above) - that's all I need to call Off a team - and will in the future. It's OK if a team does not fully qualify in the Match up - like New England this week. But cant be betting teams not projected to cover (See Spread Stat Success below). We called Off BAL and NYG due to Injury and CIN as they're on our don't bet list. That saved 3 loses. As you can see - it is a process of elimination.
The Parlay Cost Us Money this Week
We made and 18% Return this week. If All Picks were Straight Bets we make 27% GB Won - we made nothing on that game as part of a losing parlay. As we start hitting 4-2 and 5-1 weeks - there is no need to give away a win. Eliminating parlays doesn't stop anyone from putting 3 picks together. I have to remember the main goal here is to make money for you and the bank.
Parlay Whores
I'll probably post something separate and special for us special needs betters (Parlay Whores) LOL - a 3 team parlay moneyline or something to keep it fun. It wont count toward Bank or Record - But It will be something I believe in and bet myself too. I'll post it off the charts on the blog only - so it is not confusing - when I have time - right now just have to focus on the Bank bets.
Thursday Night
No reason to get silly on Thursdays. If the game qualifies as a System pick - we will bet it as one of the Single Bank Bets. Forcing one game it into a 2 team parlay is bad capping - calling both sides of any game is amateurish nonsense. As a single team bet the Thursday game will not rush or hurt the other picks and only becomes a pick if it qualifies - just like all the other games. I'll still be posting a full Head to Head Match up for that game - so everyone will have all they need for the Spread and Over Under Pick on Thursdays. As I write this, it all comes back to eliminating parlays. No rush if Thursday is not potentially part of our parlay for the week. Not betting parlays solves that too.
Betting Strategy
Progressive Bank is all about maximizing Funds and Profits. Parlays lower our odds of winning an potentially cost us money - like this week. At this point - It makes sense to just place single team bets for however many teams make it through the final cut. If it's 5 Teams great - If it's 1 that's fine too. "Winning" is what makes the Bank Work. In this case the Lombardi rule applies. "it isn't everything .....It's the only thing".
Injury Note
Checking every injury update on every game is time consuming.
We do check them for every game. However, I will be checking for last
minute updates on picks we choose. Last night Bryant was listed on the depth chart for PIT but did not play. I will double check the Key Injuries on the games we bet even closer from now on.
Spread Stat Success!
This week the System went 11-1 calling which teams should cover. Our pregame predictions were pretty good too. I may be getting the hang of this. LOL (See Chart below)
Laying Out all the games where I can see them like this should help me filter and finalize picks better. As you can see - ATL and BUF should have been filtered out and we'd be 3-0 this week. All the data in the world doesn't help - if you can't see the forest for the trees.
(Click to Enlarge then View Image to Magnify)
Enough patting myself on the back. 60% plus should be a weekly occurrence - it has been for years. I have work to do. On to week 6!
Thank you all for your support!
- Rick Jansen
