SYSTEM PAID FOR MY WEEKEND! 4 SYSTEM DOGS $40 WON $520

AJ GREEN BACK FOR CIN! TAKE BENGALS OVER CLE!!!!!!

TAKE THE 6.5 BEFORE IT GOES TO 10 - NUF SAID.
NOT A SYSTEM PIC - SYSTEM SAID CIN WOULD NOT COVER - Loss - With Green back they should have - CLE played great Def but - Cin got down to the 2 yard line with a minute left - ran 3 (play for the FG) runs and kicked a FG- not even 1 pass attempt - a TD would have covered. Hate that play for the FG crap - even without the spread that strategy can cost you a game and leave the opposition a easier chance to tie. I'm crying in my beer - but true - I lost that one.

Calling All PImps!

The "FridgeHog" Jen has been smacking it up since she took over our beloved Fridge. Her $5 to win $415 ticket equates to 83 to 1 and will be hard to beat. I'm am confident though - that one of you He-Pimps can knock her off.  Her total MoneyLine odds on that ticket were like +850 and it was a 4 teamer. I know, we almost have to tuck our manhood just to place a ticket with those odds.  Trigga (also female) came closest so far with 5 out of 6.  The estrogen is strong - but I know you can do it guys!

Just Kidding Jen - but you are going down. You have become Elaine and I am Costanzas dad. "You want a piece of me!

Monday NIght - NE vs KC

NE will score passing and running.  KC will rack up yds but horrible in RedZone. I could see 31-17 NE. But that won't cover the 17 they are asking you to give for NE. I like KC + 17 and the over - 46.5. 

What do I know?

View Match Up 

Well, looked good first half - but Jeeeez! Palko throws like Tebow!  How do these guys get in the NFL? Palko had 0 Pics and a 90% QB rating entering the game. I never saw him play before. Let's just say his rating has been adjusted. I would have covered 17 easy - if they didnt choke on all 6 trips to the RedZone. At least now I know how well our RedZone stats work - had them at the bottom. Congrats MikeG Loyal Pats fan. I like em too just needed a late moneyline to make anything on Monday night.

INJURY PICS / RUN PASSES

INJURY PICS 

No more injury pics for me. The oddsmakers take a game off the board when a major injury occurs. Gonna follow their lead. Just too hard to know back ups or who will really play. One exception would be a lousy back up QB - still gotta cash in on that.

IT'S A BIRD-  IT'S A PLANE -  IT'S A PASS - ITS A RUN?

How do you win win a crappy QB?  Answer- throw Run/Passes. Vince Young must have converted 3 or 4 clutch first downs last night with short swing passes. Bears have won with Cutler doing the same thing.

WEEK 11

Oddly no Favorites actually qualified by the specific rules of the system. But! found some gold.

Love CHI to hurt Rivers with Oline injuries to SD
Win!  - but never even pressured Rivers - still scratching my head

Like NYG at Home vs PHI without Vick or Maclin. System called PHI though.

Loss - No more injury pics. There is a reason they only named one son Pay-town . Eli is still the baby faced kid who looks like he has a learning disability and Coughlin -is still an Ahole. It was like Baltimore Jetlag zombies all over again and they were at home? Mike called a good game by Young. Have to concede that he didnt lose it for them - but he looked like a dear in the headlights in the 1st quarter and Giants didn't capitalize. Reed was forced to play smash mouth run football without Vick - if he had done that all year they would be in first place. Shoulda seen it coming.

System Win - system called PHI

GB should cover the 14 at home vs TB.
Loss - won no cover

SF should also cover 10 at home vs AZ
Win - easy money

Great UNDERS! -STL and JAC games.

Win! - Were like 4-0 on unders this year

Win!

VIEW ALL MATCH UPS!

Upset of The Week! Nailed One! Den over NYJ

We Called this Thursdays game based on a few specific factors. Give Jen credit for spotting a team coming off Monday Night to play again on Thursday. I noticed they were traveling to Mile High and got on the Jen train ( I call her Capper now) she's on top the Fridge with last weeks ticket already. Since Tebow can't throw - we looked at the NYJ Rush Defense and saw a weakness at 31st.   Add DEN OLine 6th vs NYJ OLine at 25th and that was our recipe for a DEN Moneyline / UNder win. OK... Jen called the Under. I wussed out and did two tickets 1 over and 1 under with the DEN moneyline for $30 each. Not a bad way to go though if you only have 1 game left to bet. Still paid $173 and got 30 of my $60 back too. Just forgot to take a pic before Jen made me cash it and pay her a $40 vig for coming up with the idea.  No fridge for me this week. Think she did that on purpose. Fridge Hog!

We also want to welcome 2 new Fridge Dwellers. Trigga and Mike G.  Nice Tickets!  Mike nailed the Denver game on his own and Trigga went 5 of 6 to almost knock Jen off the top of the Fridge. View Da Fridge!

Upset of The Week!

Vikings to Cover or Wins vs GB!
Loooser- GB squeaked by 45-7.  We use a the OSR now - which includes win verses and wins not just Opponent wins. If that is better look for Den over NYJ

Min along with San Fransisco have played the toughest schedule of all teams in the league.

With a combined 25 opponent wins - the Vikings have played a lot of good teams.

GB on the other hand has an opponent win total of just 15 wins.

Don't get me wrong - GB has other good opponent stats and are for real. But, 13.5 is way to many points to give against a Viking team that matches up well against the Packers.

To be safe - take the points. LONGSHOT - MONEYLINE TO WIN? 

WEEK 10 TOP PICKS!

The Top Two Picks Chosen By The System are:

BAL - 6.5 over SEA - View Match Up (below)

http://www.happycapper.com/images/BAL-SEA.jpg

Loss: Who were those undead zombies in Ravens uniforms? To put this upset in perspective - Seattle has the worst Off Line in the NFL, have been victim to 29 sacks and were led my the human pic machine - The Virus Jackson. The Ravens have the #2 ranked Def Line. Never blitzed or even pressured the Seattle QB and had no pics. This was not the team that beat the Steelers or the Falco who looked confident and poised against Pittsburgh. We couldn't predict 2 fumbled kick offs in the first half - resulting in Seahawk TDs.  Hawks have a good Pass Def - but even with a Falco pic - they win and cover if not for the fumbles.  Mike says it was all due to a rare Monday, Sunday cross country road combo that victimized Baltimore. I am not a fan of historical data - But - since I did not even recognize the team that showed up for Baltimore in Seattle - perhaps Mike has something?

AND  

HOU -3 over TB- View Match Up (below)

http://www.happycapper.com/images/HOU-TB.jpg

Winner! Just like the system called it.

Opposition Strength Stats - Wins of teams played

NFL Team	OW
Chicago Bears	25
Minnesota Vikings	25
San Francisco 49ers	22
Denver Broncos	22
New York Jets	22
Kansas City Chiefs	22
St. Louis Rams	22
Houston Texans	21
Dallas Cowboys	20
Jacksonville Jaguars	20
Miami Dolphins	20
Indianapolis Colts	20
Baltimore Ravens	19
Atlanta Falcons	19
Buffalo Bills	19
New Orleans Saints	19
Detroit Lions	19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19
Philadelphia Eagles	19
Cincinnati Bengals	18
Pittsburgh Steelers	18
Oakland Raiders	18
Carolina Panthers	18
New York Giants	16
Green Bay Packers	15
New England Patriots	15
Seattle Seahawks	15
Arizona Cardinals	15
Tennessee Titans	13
San Diego Chargers	11
Cleveland Browns	11
Washington Redskins	8

HUGE! 4 Team Parlay of The Week!

Winner! - I'd say 3 pics including 2 pic sixes is a bad day for Rivers.  Don't let the score fool you. They beat them so bad they forgot they were there - let them come back and beat them some more.
GB - 5.5 Over SD - Don't buy the Hype - "Rivers was on Fire Last Week!  Mathews. Floyd and Jackson all hurting. They are not playing KC this week - Rivers has a "very" bad day. GB crushes SD!   http://www.happycapper.com/SD-GB.html

Double Winner!  Under ! System called SF to win too

SF - Was - Under 37.5 All Lines Up - Best Under I Have Ever Seen!

http://www.happycapper.com/SF-WAS.html

Loss - Focused on NE Pass Def - Give credit to NYG Pass Def  -They won the game.
System called the Giants - I should have listened. 
NE - 9 over NYG.  NYG Rush and Pass game Decimated with Injuries. Also Starting Center out for Giants. NE poor Pass Def wont Matter. NE 26-2 After a Loss and are 18-1 or something at Home this week. Pats Easy!  http://www.happycapper.com/NE-NYG.html

Winner! - The baked beans were tasty too.

ATL -6.5 over IND. IND has a laundry list of Injuries. 29th and 30th in Pass and Rush Def.

Turner, Gonzalez and White should bring potato salad - its gonna be a picnic.

http://www.happycapper.com/ATL-IND.html

Winner! Listen...mmm,,, I dont hear any Steeler smack this morning?
Unrelated - Regarding the Steelers Ravens game - Two Words - Terrell Suggs!

Sunday / Monday NIght Home Advantage?

Mike L. has been preaching that playing at home on a Sunday or Monday night nationally televised game is worth 7 points to the home team.   Really?  Well I did the stats.   

Home teams were 13 and 4 or 76%! 

Now the Colts played in two of those games and have no wins - so I threw then out.  That's still 11-4 or 73%.   The home teams won by and avg or 8.7   

So, kudos to Mike L.!   Although trends can change - you may want to factor that 7 points in to the spread on those night games. We will have 3 per week as Thursday night games return next week.