NFL PICKS SUPERBOWL 2014

________POSTGAME_______

MON - FEB 2ND ----

 

AS PREDICTED - BAD PLAY CALLING BY SEATTLE
IT HAS BEEN CALLED THE WORST PLAY CALL IN SUPERBOWL HISTORY.
SEE OUR PREGAME SUMMARY BELOW. CAROL IS A GOOD DEFENSIVE COACH
HE AND BEVELL DO NOT HAVE A CLUE ON OFFENSE. 
THEY WILL NEED A NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR TO COMPETE NEXT YEAR. 

BELICHICK DEACTIVATED JONAS GRAY. 
BLOUNT ONLY RAN  FOR AN AVG OF 2.8 YDS PER CARRY (14 FOR 40). 
LACK OF RUN GAME GAVE WILSON AND LYNCH ENOUGH MULIGANS TO KEEP IT 
CLOSE.  THE PATS DEFENSE FAILED TO CAPITALIZE ON HORRIFIC PASSING BY 
WILSON.  HE THREW FLOATING FRISBEES ALL NIGHT.  THAT LAST MINUTE DEEP CATCH IN THE FIRST HALF WAS ENOUGH TO TAKE THE TOTAL OVER. 
AS I PREDICTED BRADY MADE ENOUGH PLAYS TO COVER.


FINAL NE 28-24
PROJECTED 30-17
( PATS RAN IN RED ZONE - PROJECTED 30 - FINAL 28)
ABSENCE OF JONAS GRAY AND RUN GAME 
PUT IT ALL ON BRADY - FORCING TWO INTS
THIS GAVE THE BALL BACK TO SEATTLE SEVERAL TIMES
(PROJECTED SEATTLE 17 FINAL 24)



MORE TO COME AND PHOTOS LATER THIS WEEK.


________PREGAME_______

FRI - JAN 3OTH ----

KEYS TO VICTORY

PATRIOTS WILL WIN IF:
NE
1. CONTINUES THE QUICK RELEASE SHORT PASS GAME
2. RUNS REGULARLY AND  ROTATES BLOUNT W/ JONAS GRAY
(NEED A MIX OF BLOUNT FORCE & GRAYS SPEED AND MOBILITY VS SMART SEA DEF)
3. RUNS IN THE RED ZONE.
SEA
1. LETS WILSON TAKE DEEP DROPS AND RUN AROUND BACKFIELD
(IF SO - PREDICTED NE 30-17)

SEAHAWKS WILL WIN IF:
SEA
1. LIMITS OFFENSE TO SHORT PASSES, RUNS AND BOOTS - ONLY
2. ABLE TO EXPOSE NE WEAKNESS AT RT GUARD WENDELL

NE
 1. ABANDONS RUN
2. FAILS TO RUN IN RED ZONE
(IF SO - PROJECTED SEA 20-17)
 
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

SUMMARY: 

AS YOU CAN SEE IN THE KEYS TO VICTORY (ABOVE) - THESE TWO TEAMS ARE EQUALLY TALENTED - EXCEPT AT QB.  THIS WILL COME DOWN TO OFFENSIVE PLAY CALLING. WILSON AND THE HAWKS ARE HERE DUE TO 3 MIRACLES AND DO NOT REALIZE IT. THAT LEADS ME TO BELIEVE CAROL WILL NOT CHANGE HIS OFFENSIVE GAME PLAN. THAT MEANS WILSON RUNNING AROUND THE BACKFIELD = 3 AND OUTS AND TURNOVERS. 

I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT BELICHICK WONT OUTSMART HIMSELF AND (ABANDON RUN).  I AM COUNTING ON CAROL AND BEVELL'S POOR PLAY CALLING AND A COCKY, CARELESS WILSON TO LOSE IT.  BRADY SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH PLAYS TO COVER. 

SAT - JAN 24TH ----

PICK
NE PK (BY 6)

UNDER (49)

PROJECTED
NE 23 SEA 17 (40)
IF PATS RUN IN RED ZONE- 30-17 (47)


(UPDATED - CLICK TO ENLARGE)

 

MY OLYMPIC SCORECARDS

 FOR EACH TEAM

(NE OFFENSE) - GREAT? (8/10)

VS

 (SEA DEFENSE) - GREAT (9)

WHY IS THE NE OFFENSE 8/10 - BAD RED ZONE TD %

THEY RUN AT WILL ON TEAMS - WHEN THEY MIX

RUN WITH QUICK RELEASE PASSES

 BUT THEY TRY TO PASS ON 1ST AND GOAL =
BAD RED ZONE TD %

IF THEY RUN IN THE RED ZONE - THEY BECOME A (10)

UNLESS BELICHICK LOSES HIS MIND -ABANDONS THE RUN

AND KEEPS PASSING ON SHORT AND GOAL - THEY OUTSCORE SEATTLE

 (SEA OFFENSE) - BAD PLAY CALLING (6)

VS 

(NE DEFENSE) - GOOD SOLID (8)

CAROL AND OFF COORDINATOR BEVELL ARE CLUELESS

IF THEY CONTINUE TO LET WILSON RUN AROUND THE BACKFIELD

WILSON WILL THROW ANOTHER 3 PICKS.

IF THEY DON'T STAY VERTICAL - RUNS, BOOTS AND QUICK PASSES

3 AND OUTS = TIRED SEA DEFENSE = PATS BY 6+ 

I'M JUST STATING FACTS ABOVE
OFFENSIVE PLAY CALLING WILL DECIDE THE WINNER
YOU DECIDE WHAT EACH COACH WILL DO?

THE UNDER

SEATTLE DEFENSE WILL HANG IN - NO MATTER WHAT

THIS SHOULD KEEP IT UNDER (49)

LUCK takes HAWKS not COLTS to SUPERBOWL

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP RECAP
Rus sell Please....   To hear him talk, you would think Russell Wilson won the NFC Championship game. "I told the guys at halftime - we didn't make the plays in the first half, we will make them in the second." or something like that was Wilson's post-game speech. We? You threw 3 INTs in the first half. Wilson seems to have his head so far up ownerships ass that he blissfully dawns the emperors new clothes. He loves the way they look "I guarantee it".

Wilson and the Seahawks didn't win, and Green Bay didn't lose it.  The Hawks got lucky - Period.  So leave poor Bostick alone. We have all been guilty of not looking before we back out of the driveway. We're all just lucky our Superbowl hopes weren't on a big wheel behind us. 

I play the Horn at Craps. It's a High Return Low Odds to win bet.  2,3,11 or 12 have to hit and it pays 16-1 for 3 or 11 and 30-1 for 2 or 12. If you sit and play that bet for an hour - you will go broke. I bet it for two rolls, hit or walk away. When I stand there and watch 2 12s hit in a row, I'm elated. But unlike Russell Wilson - I realize I had nothing to do with it.

The Hawks hit on Sunday against similar odds. Fake Punt, Onside Kick and a careless desperation pass - thrown straight up in the air for a 2 point conversion. That million to 1 shot completion  - was a direct result of Horrible play calling by Bevell.

Seattle did everything possible to lose on Sunday. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and Head coach Pete Carol have obviously learned nothing. In my pregame post  - I clarified what the Seahawks Must and Must Not do. They did exactly the opposite. Result - 16-0 Packers. 19-7 2nd half. 

The winning formula has not changed over the last 3 years for Seattle.  STAY VERTICAL!  Run Lynch, short passes and boots. NO deep drops, or letting Wilson run around the backfield. Wilson spent most of the game running around the backfield and threw 4 interceptions in the process. 

Richard Sherman, The Seattle Defense, and Marshawn Lynch are For Real. Sherman ended an early GB drive with an aggressive, athletic pick. A swat team could not have stopped Beast Mode when he knew he had to score. He even waited short of the goal line in case anyone else wanted to try. 

Bevell and Carol have had plenty of time to learn what not to do. They haven't.  It cost them a Superbowl trip 2 years ago and will cost them a 2nd trophy on February 1st. 
I'd rather be lucky than smart any day.  But I don't count on it. Neither can Seattle vs Tom Brady and the Patriots.  If the Seahawks were in Vegas, I would advise them to leave the table, take their winnings and get on a plane home.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP RECAP
There is a ball inflation controversy in New England. However, the only thing the Patriots Deflated on Sunday was Andrew Luck's Over Inflated Ego. Colts players have come straight out and admitted Luck talks down to his teammates and bosses everyone around.  I thoroughly enjoyed watching his demise for that reason. 

As far as the Patriots are concerned - the crazy old man did what he needed to do. 
I implored him to play Blount in the Divisional Playoff last year. He gave him 5 carries, sat him and lost.  Bount's first 4 or 5 carries didn't go for many yards this year either. But, this time Belichick left him in. He ended up running for 148 yds and 3 TDs. In my Pregame Post I insisted Belichick must not abandon the Run and must play Jonas Gray. He got the first part right. I love Bount by the way. He looked like a Water Buffalo on meth. He deserves the rock on short and goal in the Superbowl.

That leads me to the one mistake Belichick continues to make. When the Patriots run game is firing on all cylinders, they move down the field with ease. Normally they end up with a short yardage 1st and Goal. This is where Belichick loses his mind. Blount was averaging like 8 yards per carry in the 2nd half.  They ran 7 or 11 passes (lost count) inside the 15 on one drive Sunday and did not score a TD.  RUN the Fricken ball on 1st and Goal Bill!

A Mack Truck was the right tool against a weak Colts Rush Defense. Seattle does not have a weak Rush Defense though. More Speed and mobility may be needed to penetrate that Defensive line.  For that reason, I'll stick with my prediction that Jonas Gray still holds the final key to the Lombardi returning to New England. 

Russell Wilson should be young, dumb and on the Run. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid, but he has a lot to learn. When a PGA pro holes one out of a bunker - they lower their head and smile. They know they stole one. Wilson stole one vs GB on Sunday.  He just doesn't know it yet. Bevell and Carol are clueless on offense. if they continue to call plays that take time to develop - Wilson's Fran Tarkenton imitation will produce 3 or 4 more picks vs the Patriots defense.  If the Patriots answer with a single back, spread offense, they will win with short passes and a sustained run attack.  

An Offense limited to Short Drops, Quick Releases, and a Consistent Run Game, is the only formula that works in the NFL these days. If both teams subscribe - we might actually have a game worth watching. But don't count on it. 

I rolled the dice on Seattle last week. I'm putting money on New England Now at even odds.

- Rick Jansen

NFL Picks Conference Championships 2014

_______POSTGAME________

NE 45-7 
1 - 0
100%
Season 66-43 60%

Patriots did what they were supposed to - RUN.
Seattle Did the Opposite.  
 
Obvious was the Right Call
I posted GB +7.5 on Friday.
What's that they say about your first answer being right?
Glad the system called off that one.
I really thought Bevell and Carol learned their lesson last year.
They havent. Wilson ran around the backfield again!
They did not stay Vertical. 

_______PREGAME________

IGNORE THE OBVIOUS in SEATTLE

IF BELICHICK ISN'T SENILE PATS COVER

The Obvious gut picks would be NE to Cover 6.5 and GB +7.5. But....

If Belichick doesn't Lose his Mind and abandon the Run - the Pats should cover Easy.
Its not just a Good Match up for Pats - Good Rush Off vs Weak Rush Def. 
Running the Ball Keeps the Colts Offense Off the Field - otherwise Colts can score and Pats barely cover like last week - 2 14 point deficits. 

Last week the Packers were at Home vs a Dallas Defense with the 20th Ranked defensive Line and 23 Ranked Rush Defense. That is not the case this week. Both Rodger's and Lacy are Limited. If the SeaHawks Jam Receivers at the Line - they get to an Immobile (Calf) Rodgers. The SEA Rush Def can stop Lacy (Knee) - Force 3 and Outs - Dominate time of possession and cover.  Seattle just needs to Stay Vertical - No Waiting for Plays to Develop, or Wilson Running around the Backfield. Run Lynch - Short Passes - PERIOD!

VIEW MATCHUPS 

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

@SEA -7.5 vs GB

 SEA 

CAN RUN ON GB - BUT GB PASS DEF 3RD. GB RED ZONE DEF WEAK THO - SEA PROJ AT 83% IN RZ. OFFENSIVE DRIVE STATS GOOD FOR SEA.
EXPECT A BIG DAY FROM LYNCH
THIS SHOULD OPEN UP THE PASS GAME FOR WILSON
IF SEATTLE STAYS VERTICAL - WILSON NOT RUNNING AROUND BACKFIELD
SEATTLE COVERS 

 GB 

OL, RO, AND PO GOOD - BUT SEA BETTER IN EACH CAT. GB SHOULD HAVE GOOD FIELD POSITION - BUT OFFENSE PROJECTED AT JUST 40% IN RED ZONE

(DNQ) RICK PICK - SEA

PROJECTED - SEA 28-17  

 WE HAVE SEA BY 7  BUT IF SEA JAMS RECEIVERS - THEY GET TO RODGERS AND CAN STOP A LIMITED LACY = GB 3 AND OUTS = SEA BY 10

@NE -6.5 vs IND

 

 NE

CAN RUN ON COLTS IF BELICHICK DOESN’T OUTSMART HIMSELF
 AND PLAYS GRAY
IND WEAK RED ZONE DEF.  PATS +11 T/O IND -5 

IND

COLTS HORRIBLE RUSH OFF - BUT WIN OFF DRIVE STATS. GOOD PUNTER. BAD PLAY BY MANNING GAVE LUCK MULLIGANS - BRADY WONT.

SYSTEM / RICK PICK NE

PROJECTED - NE 31-20 

BOTH GOOD OFFENSES - BUT COLTS WEAK DEFENSE. IF PATS RUN - COLTS OFFENSE IS OFF THE FIELD AND EASY NE COVER.

NFL PICK DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS 2014

_______POSTGAME_______
We Picked 4 to Advance
3 Did - NE, SEA, GB

NE - Belichick Abandons Run - Nearly Costs them the Win
SEA - Easy Cover - Blowout as Predicted
GB - Projected Final at 27-10. Final Score 26-21
DEN - Manning's Arm loses it for Denver

WHAT DOES BAD GOLF
 AND BRONCOS LOSS 
HAVE IN COMMON? 
NO HIP - NO ZIP
  Although Manning was Suffering from a Leg (Calf or Thigh) injury.
However, he did not adjust properly to the injury.
Regarding his throwing Mechanics
The Hips are where the Power Come from. 
Just like in your Golf Swing.
Forward Hip Rotation creates the Whip or Zip.
As You Can See from the Photo (Below)
Manning Had little or No Hip Rotation. 
Result - Off target throws with NO ZIP.

 Result - Denver Loss.

WILL BELICHICK RUN VS COLTS / SEATTLE
 OR WATCH SUPERBOWL ON TV?
Last year he Sat Blount after 5 Carries.
Sure, Denver was stopping the Run.
However, the Man Power used to stop Blount
Was then Directed at Brady.
Result - Patriots Lost that Playoff Game. 
Vs Baltimore - Similar Scenario
Belichick Abandoned the Run Early
Result - Almost Lost to the Ravens
WHY YOU MUSt RUN!
It Keeps the Other Offense Off the Field
Patriots continually gave the ball back to BAL
Result 2 14 Point Deficits.
JONAS GRAY - KEY TO THE LOMBARDI
Gray averages a TD Every 15 Carries.
After Sleeping In and Being Late - 7 Weeks Ago!
Gray Has Been all But Erased from the Patriots Game Plan.
I'm All for Discipline - 1 Game - Respect - 7 Games - EGO!
37 Carries 4 TDs vs IND.  Only 20 Carries in 6 Games Since.
Jonas Gray was Deactivated for the Ravens game.
They Crushed the Colts with Gray in the Last Meeting.
Vs Colts 37 Carries 4 TDs. Vs Jets 6 Carries 1 TD!
They Need him to get Past the Divisional this Week.
If they do Beat the Colts - which they should - Easily - 
Patriots will NOT beat SEA without a Consistent Run Game!
 Stats Don't Lie
Pats Play Gray or Throw the Lombardi Away

I'll be watching the NE Injury Reports/News Closely
and Making MY Pick According

_______PREGAME_______

 FAVORING THE FAVORITES

ONLY 1 GAME QUALIFIED (DEN)

BUT - PICKING ALL 4 FAVORITES TO COVER.
A $100 TICKET - 4 TEAMS - PAYS $1300
HERE'S WHY I WENT WITH THE FAVs. 

 @(NE) -7 OVER BAL

 RAVENS PLAYED WEAK SCHEDULE - NE STRONG. NE WILL STOP RUN - PRESSURE FLACO WHICH SHOULD TIRE BAL DEF.  PATS CAN THROW AND KEEP
BAL DEF OFF BALANCE WITH SOLID RUN GAME
[ KEY TO PATRIOT VICTORY]
QUICK RELEASE - SHORT PASS GAME AND DO NOT ABANDON RUN

@(SEA) -11 OVER CAR

  MUP IS CLOSE - BUT CAR HAS ONLY BEATEN WEAK DEFENSES. NEITHER CAM OR RIVERA CAN HANDLE SEA AT HOME - THIS SHOULD PRODUCE 3 AND OUTS AND ALLOW SEA TO COVER 11.
[ KEY TO SEAHAWKS VICTORY]
STAY VERTICAL. WILSON MUST NOT TAKE DEEP DROPS

OR RUN AROUND BACKFIELD - OR THEY WILL NOT COVER.

WILSON WONT WIN IT WITH HIS ARM - CAR PASS DEF IS GOOD
STICK TO LYNCH, SHORT PASSES AND BOOTLEGS.

THE DEFENSE WILL WIN IT - THE OFFENSE HAS TO CLOSE.

 @(GB) -6 OVER DAL

  DAL DEF IS HURTING. MATHEWS WILL GET TO ROMO IN THE COLD AND THE WEAK DAL PASS DEF WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE.
[ KEY TO PACKERS  VICTORY]
DAL HAS ADVANTAGE ON OFF LINE AND RUSH OFF. 

DEF LINE MUST STEP UP AND CONTAIN MURRAY

THEY MUST ALSO PRESSURE ROMO

THEY CANT GET BEHIND. WEAK DAL PASS OFF CAN GIVE THEM A LEAD

GET DALLAS TO ABANDON RUN.

@(DEN) -7 OVER IND

 DEN WINS OFFENSIVE MATCHUP ACROSS THE BOARD - IND LOSES RUSH OFFENSE BIG. DOME TEAM IN COLD @DEN. IND PROJECTED 38% RED ZONE ALLOWS 71%

[ KEY TO BRONCOS  VICTORY]
MIX IT UP - RUNS / QUICK STRIKE PASSES ON OFFENSE.

THEY CAN STOP THE RUN - MUST STOP COLTS ON 3RD DOWN

PRESSURE BUT ALSO CONTAIN LUCK

NO 3RD DOWN RUNS BY LUCK FOR 1ST DOWNS. 

NFL PICKS WILD CARD WEEKEND 2014

 _______POSTGAME_______
2-0
Season 
67-42
61%

2-0 
WILD CARD SATURDAY
 CAR 20 ARI 16
BAL 30 PIT 17

WILD CARD SUNDAY
CIN +3.5 @ IND (INJURY OFF)
@DAL -6.5 vs DET ? 

_______PREGAME_______

SYSTEM LIKES 2 OUT OF 4
I DO NOT LOVE ANY OF THESE GAMES
NOT ONE DEPENDABLE TEAM IN THE BUNCH
ALL I KNOW IS THE PATRIOTS SHOULD WIN THE SUPERBOWL
I JUST WENT WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT - SYSTEM DOESN'T KNOW FLACCO, DALTON, ROMO OR RIVERA

SYSTEM PICKS 
CAR
BAL

CIN (INJURY OFF)
AJ GREEN (OUT) / TE GRESHAM (LIMITED BACK) = -7
SEE UPDATED MATCHUP (BELOW)

I ALREADY BET CIN TOO - NEED SOME LUCK (NOT ANDREW)
AND CIN DEF TO WIN THIS ONE - IND -5 T/O RATIO

? DAL/DET
(OFF)
 DAL PROJECTED TO COVER
HAVE A TICKET WITH DAL
BUT CANT CALL THIS ONE

CAR-ARI
FULL MATCHUP
(CLICK TO  ENLARGE)

PIT-BAL
FULL MATCHUP
(CLICK TO  ENLARGE)

 IND-CIN
(INJURY ALERT!)
FULL MATCHUP
(CLICK TO  ENLARGE)

  DAL-DET
FULL MATCHUP
(CLICK TO  ENLARGE)
 

HANDICAPPING RECORD - REGULAR SEASON 2014

PARODY IS EPIDEMIC IN THE NFL

OUR WORST YEAR EVER

BUT - STILL ON TOP

REGULAR SEASON 

65-42 (61%)

ALL TIME

284-119

4 YR AVG

VS 

NFL SPREAD

70%

IT AINT OVER

PLAYOFFS LAST YEAR

9-3