Projected ATL 23-20 (43)
Bet $100 ATL+3 / Under 59
Injuries
New England: 3 Receivers, DE, MLB Questionable (All Expected to Play)
Atlanta: None
Match Up
The Falcons are the best Offense the Pats face all year. The Pats are the best Defense the Falcons will play. A closer look at the numbers reveals that although Pats Allow about 7 points Less per game - ATL Scores 14 More points per game. If you do the math - that gives the edge to ATL by 7 - which is what the system predicts 27-20 ATL. I factored the Pats 3rd ranked Rush Defense and Stingy 25% allowed in the Red Zone and took 4 points Off ATL - 23-20.
The Pats are projected at 62% in the Red Zone - ATL only 49%. But Falcons score often outside the 20.
Edge
The Match Up is fairly even - But Falcons Win Pass Offense. Pats have a strong Rush Defense, But If Falcons Pass First to Set up Run - They Win. They have an arsenal of healthy targets and should be able to do that. (ATL by 3).
Total
Although I like Falcons to Outscore Pats - I'm Talking by 3 - 7 points. They wont Run it up vs the New England Defense. They will sustain drives and keep Brady off the field long enough to to keep him from posting a huge number either. (Under 59)
Head to Head
Bank Bet
