BUF+10.5 @ GB (44.5)
I like what I saw with Josh Allen leading Bills last week. His ability to run opens up the pass and run game from the backfield. Packers lose Rush Offense and struggled vs WAS. It is early, last week could be a fluke vs MIN - but I was surprised by the line and will take 10.5 and the Bills. Historically - giving 10 with a low total (44.5) is a bad idea. Go Bills!
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Shout Out (Thank You!) to Canada and France for following me here!
WK 3
IND @ PHI
Pick UNDER (48)
Predicted IND 21-14 (34)
Final IND 20-16 (36)
System called the SIDE & UNDER & the SCORE within 3.
Last year most of our losses cam in the first 5 weeks. Last years top handicapper has 10 picks already and dropped to 50% in 3 weeks. We have been patient and its paying off so far. Record Perfect and Bank is in the black!
#1 in the World This Week!
I know it is only 1 week and only 1 pick. But it is a major strategy change for us. We are NOT betting 5 games anymore to try and win 3 and stay at 60%. That mentality can end in 45% after a few bad weeks. BTW 45% is the average percentage by year end for Pros that charge for picks. We finished 5th in the world last year at 57%. I want more!
Pro Handicapping Records 2018 NFL
Source http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/
All our picks are posted pregame on Twitter for legitimacy (Twitter posts can not be edited)
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
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I'm still waiting for 5 weeks of data before I start betting every week. But - may have found some low hanging fruit? No guarantees - but here is our first official pick of the season....
IND @ PHI UNDER (48)
The system loves the UNDER and PHI is without Ajayi and Sproles. RB Mack is out for IND. So I will take a chance on the UNDER.
HEAD TO HEAD
I said prior to week one that most of our losses came in the first 5 weeks last year, and for that reason I would go slow until week 5. I didn't want to disappoint followers by not posting for 5 weeks, I also see games I like right now. But, the system is based on stats not gut feelings.
I like today's picks, but I am calling OFF ALL BETS until week 5. I'll still post each week, but not risking our bank or our record until we have enough stats to make educated predictions. Weeks 2-4 will be test weeks - that's all.
I found myself shooting for 60% this year - that may be best in the world - but it used to be a bad year for us - its a loser mentality. I'd rather wait until week 5, shoot for 100% and settle for 80%.
-Rick Jansen
I'm trying to take it slow, more bets this week than I planned. But I like these. We'll see?
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This week was a good test. 3-3 consider it a wash. We'll hit reset, start collecting stats and ease into the season next week. 3 Great Picks in CHI, Under NYG and a blow out upset for Jets.
Interesting that the best picks came - not from preseason performance, but from the ones I ran head to head off last years stats. This week also reaffirmed my strategy to start slow and separate contenders from pretenders before risking our record and the bank. New bank, new season next week.
(L) PIT v CLE (42) (Under 41.5)
Blame the weather man. The ATS video on Covers predicted weather so bad - they literally stated that they did not know how the game could even be played. Lost by half a point, only because PIT turned it over like 4 times in the 4th.
(W) NYG v JAC (Under)
Easy call with 2 decent defenses and inept offenses.
(W) GB v CHI (+8)
Great upset call, CHI should have win and covered easy.
(W) DET v NYJ (+6.5)
Great upset call. Jets blew them out!
(L) NOS -9.5 v TB
My original game notes on Saints was that they were on fire in preseason last yr and struggled early regular season. Then I picked the Saint to over 10. Lesson, if conflicted, lay off.
Final Results
Trying to take it slow early in the season, but found 5 I feel are solid bets. Staying with $25 units for now, so not risking much bank. Its early, so don't bet the farm.
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2018 STRATEGY
Last year we went 57%, tied for 5th in the world vs the NFL spread. Most of our losses came in the first 5 weeks. A slower start would have put us closer to 70%. My strategy this year is to start slow, let the stats build and ease into he season. We will be full speed on picks around week 5.
WEEK 1 THURSDAY NIGHT
ATL @ PHI (PICK) (44)
NO BET
Just for fun - here's my take. I like an intact Falcons team here, with an electric RB in Freeman and better weapons at WR. Eagles have a good run and pass game too. So no heavy favorite either way. Both offenses will be a little rusty, facing good D's. So If I had to bet - Under (44) maybe. But with 2 talented offenses - I do not see a solid play here. Just a game that will probably be worth watching.
-Rick Jansen
Once again we were Top 5 in the world vs the NFL spread in 2017.
Source: http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/
