POSTGAME______________
Well, that's twice this month that we lost a win by a missed extra point. No loss - push - but Jets played like drunken Buffoons. People were tweeting - "Are they trying to lose?. They did fail to even try to score inside the Dallas 30 with 3 time outs and 49 seconds left. They did nothing but set up a FG for a kicker who already missed 2 kicks. Did that with :30 left in the 4th. That left time for 5 plays by Dallas only needing a FG to tie.
I've heard people over the last few weeks say they think the NFL is fixed, they quit betting and quit watching. That is bad for the game and for the sportsbooks for that matter. It's the end of the world as we know it - and I feel fine. Guess I'm used to it now.
You have to have a thick skin and stay positive. You never know, an influenza outbreak could hit the Giants locker room. A mutiny could break out against Chip Kelly in Philadelphia. A lot of good things can still happen for us this weekend. "On to Sunday."
PREGAME_______________
NYJ-3 @DAL (41.5)
PROJECTED
NYJ 35 DAL 9 (44)
BANK PICK JETS
It almost seems too easy - but Jets dominate the Match Up and are only giving 3. Big day for Ivory, long day for Cassell.
PARLAY LOVERS
(2 TEAM NO TEASE)
ARI -3.5 @PHI
NYJ -3.5 @DAL
FINAL BANK PICKS FOR THE WEEK
EARLY LINE PICKS
(8:29 AM Tue 12/15/15)
ARI-3.5 @PHI (Anywhere)
CAR-4 @NYG (Wynn) (CAR-TE Olsen Prob) (RB Stewart Out)
Note: Got a good line early - but caution - Stewart was only ? when we bet CAR.
BUF(PK) @WAS (Stations)
NOTE: Early Line Picks placed prior to match ups - no match ups posted
PICKS ADDED SATURDAY
NYJ-3 @DAL
@NE-14 vs TEN
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
OFF GAME NOTES
MIA @SD-2
Projected MIA 20-17 OT
SD wins on Pass Off - but Stevie Johnson is out. I like Campbell has his team fired up - I like them by FG in OT.
HOU @IND-2
(?)
I like Whitehurst if he starts, and although Yates has played well - he was one of the worst back ups in the league. HOU wins the Match Up Big! But I like IND at home. (OFF)
@NO-2 vs DET
Projected DET 27-24
I like Saints at home - but the Match Up does not - Lions projected at 87% TDs in the Red Zone and a weak Saints Pass Off may let them get there enough to win?
X
Post_______________________________
I could not ask for much more. My boy Case redeemed himself and I win a $50 ticket. I would have liked to have given us a win for the bank - but - At the same time - the match up was dead on. If you watched - the Bucs were 1 TD away from killing the cover. Here's what the match up predicted:
1. TB would shut down the Rams Run Game. (Gurely had less than 50 yds rushing)
2. Rams Rush Defense Ranked 26th. (Bucs Ran on them at will.)
Only a stellar performance by the Rams secondary kept TB out of the Red Zone - where they were projected to score a TD 69% of the time.
A dazzling performance by Austin saved the game. Keenum played solid - but - without Austin's 2 TDs - the Rams lose and fail to cover. So, as much as I wish we had bet the Rams for the bank - calling off was the safe move.
_________________________
@STL-2.5 vs TB
Projected STL 27-14
(OFF)
I like Keenum in this situation, at home, vs a beat up Bucs defense. But I'm a Keenum Fan and to be realistic - Rams main weapon is Gurley. Bucs strength is Rush Def (9th). Multiple injuries on the Bucs Def Line and at MLB could make open up the run for the Rams. But - STL has a very weak Rush Defense (26th) vs a Running QB and a good RB in Doug Martin.
I like the Rams giving less than 3 - but would be breaking all the rules if I bet them with bank money - they do not qualify as a pick in the match up - Rams lose on Rush Off, Pass Off and Red Zone Def.
I'll have $50 on Keenum to save his career on a Network Night Game at Home. But hoping and Predicting are 2 different things. I believe in the kid though. Predicted years ago he would become a top 10 NFL QB. This may be his last chance tonight. These rookies are not groomed anymore - just thrown off the cliff and expected to fly. I hope he earns his wings tonight.
Go Case!
HEAD TO HEAD
X
Making a couple early picks before the lines move against us.
BANK BETS
(8:29 AM Tue 12/15/15)
ARI-3.5 @ PHI (Anywhere)
CAR-4 @NYG (Wynn) (CAR-TE Olsen Prob)
BUF(PK) @ WAS (Stations)
BANK RECEIPT
JUST FOR FUN - MONEYLINE
DEN VS PIT
CHI VS MIN
ATL VS JAC
POST__________
We would have won if I stayed on Giants - but it did get real close.
___________________________
NYG PK @ MIA
(OFF)
Giants win pass offense big. NYG defense has some injuries but MIA loses Rush Offense and top receiver is out. They do not project well in Red Zone - But - have big play potential outside the 20. Jonas Gray was cut again by MIA - if Giants key on Lamar Miller - they can shut down a one denominational attack. I like the Giants here with something to prove - coming off 2 loses on a network night game.
However, I just remembered how hard the Dolphins are playing for Campbell and had 2nd thoughts. Home Night game for MIA and Giants have been playing like crap. (OFF)
HEAD TO HEAD
5 Team Teaser Hit (All Covered ATS - Straight Up!)
IF IT WERE AN ATS MONEYLINE (WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE)
Good week that should have been a great week. I'm not referring to what could have been with a moneyline - but the other bets we did make.
No
last second strip or we hit with MIN.
Won 2 legs of 3 and were a play away from covering the 3rd.
Really bad coaching or BUF wins
easy too. Lost by 2 points.
Bills playing 10 yards off receivers and only rushing 3 made Bradford look like Brady. Long, low percentage passes on 3rd and short killed 5 scoring drives. The Offensive and Defensive coordinators should be fired in Buffalo. This is arguably the 2nd most talented team in the NFL. They will watch the playoffs at home because of bad coaching. Those great young players deserve so much more.
Those 2 hit the Bank is at a nice profit this week without the teaser win
In an effort to provide insight and into our methods - I can make the mistake of sharing more information than is really needed. I can talk to much sometimes. When we started - just doing in dept Head to Head match ups was enough to win consistently. By week 5 or 6 you had teams you could count on to cover. Parody has changed the league so much - I have to constantly adjust and rethink our strategy on a weekly basis. So in a few words - that kind of is the key...
Teasers do make sense sometimes - I think that is something I learned this year - there is no hard and fast rule for every situation. Black and white thinking in life and betting rarely works. I have to weigh each week case by case as far as betting strategy.
Learned a lot this year already. We've come a long way from 4 team money-lines to 2 team spread parlays that win or lose by half a point. There are like 50 games left - so we still have a solid shot at achieving that "so-called" impossible 60% and showing a profit for the bank. Feeling good!
WEEK 14 BANK STATEMENT
$100 2 TEAM PARLAY
BUF+1 @PHI
NE-3.5 @HOU
I know I swore off parlays - But - I only have 2 teams I feel strong about this week - so it makes sense for the bank. If these 2 hit - 14 weeks into one of the hardest handicapping seasons ever - the bank will be in the black going into week 15.
I do also like CAR as well - but ATL is the 12th ranked scoring defense and Panthers are giving 8.5. They should cover - but after 13 weeks you learn to trust your intuition. I visualized Bengals covering easy at home and did not be them vs Cleveland. I can picture Falcons keeping it close this week - they shouldn't - but I'm gonna trust my gut and stay off.
RICK PICKS (OFF THE RECORD)
OAK +7 @ DEN
I do Like Del Rio to throw the kitchen sink at Denver. Broncos defense will be missing some key players. The #3 Pass Off of Oakland could keep it close
@STL+3 vs DET
Keenum will start at home and I like fisher to give Stafford headaches.
Far from a lock - just like Keenum to redeem himself in this situation.
There are a lot of other games that look like obvious Dog Plays. Saints and Titans +7 - but the match ups favored the favorites pretty heavy. May still be good dogs - just staying off them.
SEA cold cover 13 at BAL with Schuab or Clausen at QB and star TE Gilmore (4tds) Doubtful.
Hawks RB Rawls already has more TDs (4) than Lynch (3) with less than half the carries. The knock on this one is the BAL Rush Def is 8th.
WHAT THE HELL?
Nothing makes sense this year - why should we. Actually there are dogs I like and love in a tease. Also favorites I feel good about giving less points. So, risking $50 for chance at a nice return.
NOTE:
(A friend encouraged me to take a little less profit 3-1 instead of 4-1 with a 7 point teaser- instead of 6 and get 10 on the Rams and 14 on Oakland). No reason to be greedy or careless. "Hogs get fat - Pigs get slaughtered". I think that's how the saying goes. I can't pad the record with the tease. The whole ticket is 1 win or 1 loss.
BONUS BANK BET
5 team 7 Point Tease
HEAD TO HEAD (2 team Parlay)
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
PostGame_____________________
Well, Vikings Fumble in Red Zone and Drop a Pick 6 or we cover. Vikings In FG Range at the end to make it 23-23 and a guaranteed cover for us in OT (MIN+11) & (Over 46.5). Fumble. Can't whine about it. On to the weekend.
BTW only breaking my rules on parlays on the Thursday and Monday games when it makes sense. No regrets - if they played tomorrow I'd bet it again.
PreGame______________________
MIN+11 @ARI (46.5)
BANK BET MIN+11 (OVER 46.5)
The Safe bet is just the OVER. Both defenses are hurting bad. MIN is hurting worse - thus the line. But - I factored both and still like the Vikings to cover 11. Vikings lose on Pass Off but win big on Off Line and Rush Offense - should slow Cards enough for MIN to cover 11.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
I had 3 people tell me they hate football and quit betting last week - not followers of mine - just people at the golf range. Our Local Las Vegas Guro from the newspaper went 0-5 a week ago. Oh well... no on said it would be easy.
85 games left - I love a good challenge and the late season has always been very good to us. Our Win/Loss Record is just above 49% and the bank is only down about 20%.
I think we have survived arguably the hardest season to handicap in history rather nicely.
Let end it with some wins!
@WAS -3.5 vs DAL (42)
(OFF) Projected 20-20 (40)
When I capped this game - I fully expected the Redskins to dominate the Match Up. They didn't. Neither team did. (See Head to Head Below)
I'm off - but - I suggest you do a 7 point teaser with the team you like and the Over.
HEAD TO HEAD
X
That's Entertainment
May not have gone our way - but it wasn't boring. On the NFL Sunday Ticket - 4 team mosaic - I simultaneously watched a blocked punt run back for a TD against our Pats and a blocked extra point run back vs our Panthers.
Later in the afternoon the Mosaic was down to 2 games. We got to watch Brady damn near comeback from a 21 point deficit - with Gronk and Eddelman in - he probably would have. On the other half of the screen Brees and Newton went down to the wire like super heroes battling over Gotham City. Newton prevailed but did not cover. We got our money's worth.
NE
3 Special teams muffs by NE cost us 21 points and the game. 1) Failed onside resulting in PHI TD drive. 2) Blocked Punt TD and 3) Punt Returned for TD all by the Eagles.
CAR or CIN
The system called 2 teams Panthers and Bengals. I chose the wrong system pick. Hindsight is always 20-20. Lets see Bengals at home vs Browns or Panthers vs Brees and Payton in the dome. In my defense - if Eifert with 12 TDs was not out for Bengals - we would have taken them instead.
DEN
Was a great call. I predicted the Broncos Defense would shut down Rivers and win it - they did 17-3.
IND
Started out OK - but Steelers ran them over at Home. I do not think PIT is that good - But Colts were that bad last night.
PREGAME ________________
I feel good about this weeks picks. We'll see? View Head to Head Notes.
The system also loves Bengals - but Giving 9 and starting TE Eifert (12 TDs) is Doubtful for CIN. Love my Bills too - but the system doesn't - HOU very weak schedule strength tho - Bills 2nd hardest. (See Other Games Below)
@ NE -9 vs PHI
IND +7.5 @ PIT
CAR -6.5 @ NO
DEN -3.5 @ SD
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK - VIEW IMAGE MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
OTHER GAMES
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK - VIEW IMAGE MAGNIFY)
x
I was just talking to my business partner about lst nights parlay. For no reason in particular he just reminded me out of the blue - that when you lose and push on a teaser (or win and push for that matter) You get your money back. In the back of my mind - I thought - didn't we have one of those recently?
As you know Teasers are not my specialty - I've only done 2 I think on the virtual bank. Lucky for us - one of them was a loss and a push.
In Week 10 we had a 7 point Teaser with:
Green Bay (teased to -4.5) vs Lions (Loss)
and
Patriots (teased to -1) vs Giants - Final NE 27-26 (Push)
I did not know at the time that we get our money back on that ticket. I never put the $150 back in the Virtual Bank. On the left in the Week 10 Bank Receipt (below) Return Week should have been $150 - Not $0.
WEEK 10 BANK RECEIPT
We began the week with $641 in the Virtual Bank.
with the win last Night paying for $107 and that $150 from Week 10 - we're already back to $898. Only down 10% on the year and our Win / Loss Record is just above 50%. 32-31.
WEEK 13 BANK RECEIPT
[ As of today there are 99 games left in the year counting playoffs and the super bowl. Plenty of games to achieve our goal of 60% and to make a profit for the bank. ]
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