______Post-Game_________
The System called ATL and the Over. I called OFF so it doesn't count toward our Record.
But Good Job System! ATL actually scored 38 without a late pic 6.
______Pre-Game_________
@NO -2.5 vs ATL
Opening Line NO -3
PROJECTED
ATL 38 NO 34 (72)
We're OFF tonights game. The books made a fortune this weekend. We played it conservative and kept a winning record. I'm Not looking to chase a Monday Night win.
The system likes ATL, but Saints win the Head to Head. 2 weeks are not enough to count on scoring projections. Falcons are not projected well in the Red Zone 41% and allow 80% on Red Zone Defense. Both teams have weak Pass Defenses and strong Pass Attacks. Over is factored at (54) but could go much Higher. That 41% Red Zone Offense for ATL scared me off the Falcons and the Total though? Were (OFF)
HEAD TO HEAD
x
We are off to a great start 9-2 82%. I would like to keep it that way.
When I saw the lines come out this week - I was not thrilled. A lot of tough match ups. I need one more week of stats to start to separate pretenders from contenders. I was only going to go with one - my top pick this week - @PIT - 3.5 over PHI. But I did a full cap on all the games and found 2 more diamonds in that rough (I hope). So, we have our 3 Team Parlay.
I Also revised the System Picks to add more info and make it real clear which ones count. This week only the 3 we are betting count toward our record.
PICK OF THE WEEK
@PIT -3.5 OVER PHI
BANK BETS
SYSTEM PICKS
x
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https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
IN THE BLACK!
Winning Ticket!
Bank up $70 after week 2.
Love the Progressive Parlay Strategy
As we predicted, by betting parlays, even a 2 teamer in this case, we were able to recoup losses in just one week. We started with $500. After a $100 loss in week1, the bank is up $70 after week 2. Also, by only betting one parlay, at $50 per week, we have a huge cushion. We could literally lose 10 weeks in a row, hit a 3 parlay and be back to $350
Big Money
In addition to NOT going broke, we have big money potential. A few 3 Teamers and were up to around $1500 in just a few weeks.
Avoided Traps
There were 3 games this week that seemed like a lock. BAL over CLE, SEA over LA, and PHI over CHI. Those 3 dogs were horrible in week 1. But the Fav's were giving 6.5 and none of them scored well in week 1. So far, 2 of the 3 did NOT cover. We are Off the 3rd - PHI over CHI.
I cant stand Cutler, but the CHI defense played well and he has weapons. It's also a Home Opener for the Bears, In Chicago, On Monday Night. I'll quit this week while were ahead.
Pick of the Week 2-0
We are 100% calling the Pick of the week.
Week 1 Texans
Week 2 Cowboys
Posted Weekly on Twitter
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
System Results Week Two 2-0
Season Record 9-2 82%
I posted the Naked System Picks as promised. There were 3 I specifically steered away from - they are mentioned above and were posted in RED on Wednesday. That left 2. Another bad dog in week 1 was WAS. We took DAL Moneyline, WAS played a lot better, but we got a win. We also predicted ARI would man handle TB, they did. 2-0 Week 2.
Note: We steered away from SF, SEA, and PHI. So the System does NOT get credit for the PHI Cover That game did NOT effect our record.
It almost seems too easy this week. Horrible Bears and Skins giving points? Maybe it is.
Could just be a Jedi Mind Trick by the books.
"These are not the Odds you're looking for, move along."
Some potentially great teams only played bad teams in week one. So it is too early to assume anyone is a lock.
I like all the system picks, But, this is the hard part, picking 3. There are potential fleas on a few Dog's and Fav's - that I have noted (below) under SYSTEM PICKS.
I am only doing two teams for the bank, that I feel strongest about. DAL and ARI. I'm taking DAL Money Line, so that 2 Team Parlay pays 3.4 -1, to make up for not doing a 3 teams @ 6-1
Good Luck!
- Rick Jansen
BANK PICKS
SYSTEM PICKS
Play Along at Home
The System
The whole idea of this site is to help everyone win money. Beat the NFL Spread.
The system I invented 5 year ago works. The moron running it "Me" has always been able to help or hurt it. Not anymore. This year I will post the Naked System Picks and they will count toward the Season Record, period.
In my defense - I did call the Pick of the Week - Texans and it Hit!
Injuries
You could argue that I should call off some system picks due to an injury. But the spread often reflects injuries and half the time the injury report is wrong. Waiting on injuries also delays my posting the System Picks. I got complaints about that in the past from some of you serious gamblers - as it can hurt your line If you're taking the favorite.
Calling Off System Picks
If there is a MAJOR case for calling Off a System Pick I will. But I won't make a habit of it and will still post the naked System Picks with a note of why I'm off that game - so you can choose for yourself.
Bets and Bank
I have to choose 3 Teams for a 3 team parlay each week. That is how, in the past I can help or hurt the system. I pick which System picks count. Not anymore. I will post the naked System Picks and you can choose what you bet in your bank.
Advantage
This way you have the advantage of the System Picks, and the the Progressive Bank money management strategy. That's a huge advantage. What you do with it is up to you, as you play along at home, with your real money.
I will still post my bank picks (from the top 6 System Picks) and balance. But this way you'll get all the system picks early and unfiltered.
System Record Week 1 (7-2)
As you can see the System did just fine on its own. I played with it and added points to Buffalo. Because they scored more in preseason the one game Tyrod Taylor played. Then I spent hours on a full head to head matchup and bet the Rams at the last minute (not a system picks). Not doing that anymore. How did I go 7-2 and not make money? LOL. Giants beat the Cowboy and I added Buffalo. Otherwise the top 3 Favorites (Top Green) and Top 3 Dogs (Bottom Brown) All hit. Here is how "my" System did without "my" help .
Progressive Bank Balance Week 1
The good thing about just betting 1 $50 parlay a week - we can take a chance on a Monday night game, lose and still have 8 weeks of bets left.
I'll have this weeks pick up by tomorrow at the latest.
Good Luck
-Rick Jansen
There is a lot of talk about Overs and Unders tonight. Over PIT vs WAS and Under LA vs SF.
I took the time to do full Head to Head Match Ups for both games - based on week 17 2016 and this years preseason. I wont be doing that on 32 teams this year. I may be wrong, but I found traps for the most part. Its week one, so these teams are still a box of chocolate.
I did find one game I am willing to Risk $50 on in a straight single bet. Yes it counts toward the Bank.
BANK BET
$50
RAMS -3 @ SF
HERE ARE THE FULL HEAD TO HEAD MATCH UPS
(THU Noon) All Games Head2Head w/out Injuries & TNF Pick
(SAT Noon) All Games Head2Head w/ Injuries & FINAL Picks
(PST)
Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip for Live Bets and Updates
Our Money Management Strategy
As you know, I'm not a believer in
betting $1000 on one team to win $900. There are no sure things, especially
with parody running rampant in the league. There is a method though, for making the most of the money you have to bet....
Progressive Bank
This method is is how professional gambling houses turn 100k into several million. But you can get similar results with a much smaller amount. Progressive Bank cash management allows us to potentially make a large amount of money
with a small initial investment. You bet a percentage of your bank each
week. If we win, our Balance increases and so does the amount we can bet
each week, and thus the amount you can win. If you win consistently, it's like
an interest earning savings account - but grows much faster at a rate of
return.
Straight Bets
You have a better
chance of making money every week with straight bets. That can help the
bank to grow exponentially, Which is the point of a progressive bank.
Good Luck!
-Rick Jansen
WEEK ONE PICKS
.
PICK SUMMARY
BUFFALO....
caps out at a push +3. I think the Bills have more talent and a better QB on offense than the Ravens, and just as good a defense. I see them winning outright by 4 but I'll take the 3
(Pick of The Week)
HOUSTON.....
is probably the strongest of the 3 picks, Cutler should have retired years ago. The Texans should have their way with him. Brock Osweiler should be fine at QB. Lamar Miller should step up and take the pressure off him to win the game. Texans by 10.
DALLAS.....
If the preseason was any indicator, the Giants (averaging only 10 points per game) could be in for a long year. On the other hand, the best thing that happened to the Cowboys this year may be Romo's bad back. Dak Prescott was on fire in the preseason. I like him at home this week vs what I hope will be a NY team in decline. Cowboys by 7.
Don't bet the farm. Week one is based on preseason stats.
WEEK 1 PREVIEW
JUST FOR FUN, 4 TEAM MONEYLINE
Hey, its week one, Odds makers make mistakes this time of year. No, these Fun Picks do not count toward our Progressive Bank or our Season Record. But I actually like these picks.
Good Luck!
We Bought the Opening Line
CAR -4 vs DEN (44.5)
OVER (44.5)
Current Line
CAR -5.5 vs DEN (44.5)
Projected
CAR 37-17
I'm taking SuperFly over the Super Old White Guy. The Panthers picked apart an immobile Carson Palmer. Manning is older, slower and throws like Betty White. Sorry Betty. The Cards also had one of the top defenses in the league - that did not stop Cam.
I was not a fan of Rivera, but he has let Cam and the players take over and it's working. Kubiak is no genius. Wade Philips isn't either and a good defense will only take you so far without an offense to match. Especially vs a team with both.
The DEN Defense matches up well vs the CAR Offense - But the Broncos offense does not look good vs the CAR D. Manning only 9TDS & 17 INTs. DEN Pass Off is 26th vs the CAR Pass Def 4th. Look for 3 and out to wear out a solid DEN D. This will open things up for CAM and Company. Newton has 35 TDs and only 10 INTs on the yr. DEN loses the Turnover Ratio CAR +20 DEN -4. DEN punter is lousy too and wont give them much breathing room.
MATCH UP
BANK RECEIPT ($100 2 Team Parlay) CAR + Over
EARLY LINE PICK
FINAL BANK BET
CAR -4
Some Great Odds in Golf This week....
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/
EARLY LINE PICKS
THESE ARE FINAL BANK BETS
NE -3
CAR -3
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
(2 TEAM PARLAY $100)
POSTGAME BANK BALANCE
VIRTUAL BANK WINS BIG!
(3 Team Parlay Pays $1200)
Bank Up $552 155% on the Year
EARLY LINE PICKS
THESE ARE FINAL BANK BETS
NE -4.5 (WIN)
CAR -1.5 (WIN)
DEN -6 (WIN)
@NE -4.5 vs KC (43)
Post: NE 27-20
Projected NE 17-10 (27) (NE) (WIN)
Although the Chiefs scored 30 vs the Texans - most of those points were the result of 3 and outs and turnovers by the Houston offense. Several turnovers occurred in the first half, about 6 scoring ops resulted in just 13 points by an ineffective KC Red Zone Offense. The Pats have a laundry list of injuries including Gronk and Amendola listed as questionable. However, Gronk is expected to play and Edelman is also Probable. NE has a better offense and defense, I like them by a TD at Home. < Correct - NE won by a TD )
Over / Under (OFF)
With limited targets - Brady may not run it up vs the 3rd ranked KC pass defense. However, KC allows 75% TDs in the red Zone and the Pats defense may hand Brady 3 and outs which could take it Over 43? < Correct - Total went over - 47)
@ARI -7 vs GB (49.5)
Post: ARI 26-20 (My Gut was Right - Cards Did Not Cover)
Projected ARI 34-21 (55) (OFF)
If
you like the Cards - the Stats agree. ARI may indeed blow out GB. I
just do not feel comfortable betting them. Cards dominate the match up -
but they scored 6 vs Seattle and the Packers put up 35 vs the Skins.
You can't compare those teams defensively - but Rodgers got hot vs the
Vikings if he does again this week - and Cards stall again - anything
can happen in a year where everything has. It may be a mistake but my
gut says stay off this one. (It sure as hell did) LOL.
Over / Under (OFF)
Packers could stall vs a solid Cards defense - if so this one goes under. Off.
(Correct - Total went under - 49.5)
@CAR -1.5 vs SEA (47)
Post: CAR 31-24
Projected CAR 27-20 (47) (CAR) (WIN)
Pete Carrol and his inept offensive coordinator Darrell Bevel are allowing Russell Wilson to run around the backfield again. This strategy will result in absolute failure on offense vs the Panthers. Last week - 3 visits to the MIN 30 resulted in 0 TDs. Unless they stay vertical with short passes, boots and a lot of lynch - 3 and outs will = a route for CAR. You have 2 good defenses and 1 good offense in this one - led by Cam Newton - "NOT" Russell Wilson. Panthers roll by 7 or more.
Over / Under (OFF)
It would not surprise me one bit if Wilson is allowed to take deep drops and run around the backfield. If so - 3 and outs by SEA could wear down the SEA Defense. This would allow the Panthers to run over the Hawks and it could go over.
@DEN -6 vs PIT (39.5)
Post: DEN 20-13
Projected DEN 24-13 (37) (DEN) (WIN)
Denver is scary healthy. The Steelers on the other hand will be without their top Running back Williams and WR Brown. Ben is expected to play but is hurting. That is "NOT" the main reason hey will lose. That burden will fall on Offensive coordinator Todd Haley. He is the worst play caller in the league. The PIT offense struggled vs CIN "with' Brown in the line up for 119 yds receiving. Manning's days in the NFL are numbered. He should have a decent one Sunday though - vs a tired PIT defense - worn out by bad playing calling and 3 and out on Offense. DEN by 10.
Over / Under (OFF)
We have the total within a few points of the Book - so were off the Over / Under.
BANK RECEIPT (3 team pays $1200)
KC -3 @HOU (Everywhere)
Chiefs are just a much better team.
Caution: (OFF) No QBs out for HOU - Texans won the match up!
3 TEAM PARLAY
BANK BET
$200 Pays $1200
@CIN +3 vs PIT (Wynn)
Let's Hope Todd Haley Calls a bad game for Steelers again.
I like Bengals at Home getting a FG. PIT has the weaker Pass Def.
SEA -4.5 @MIN (MGM)
Lynch Full Practice - Buy Now - Line May Move toward SEA Soon.
Lynch refuses to board plane "I'm not feeling it" - OUT!
Details:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AfANEPSIZc
GB @ WAS OVER (45.5)
Skins hot, at home, and win Match Up. Projected by 10+ - But - WAS Pass Def 27th vs Rodgers? WAS Rush Def 25th? Taking the Over instead.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
The sportbooks cleaned up as every sensible bet went south. I miss professional Football. Haven't seen much of that this year. Most games seem to be decided by luck more than skill this year. Oh well, no time to whine - onto the playoffs.
The Good News
If we only go 50% this year - our 5 year average will be 68% - that is still the best record on the planet by a mile. Part Time - with no staff - full crew next year.
NEXT YEAR - NO WIN - NO CHARGE!
After the first 0-5 week in our history I thought about next year. If we start charging $40 a month for full access to our data and picks I made a decision. Any month we do not show a profit - the next month is free. We will be "Hands Down" the best deal in town. Keep in mind too - right now I do this part time. Next year I will have a full crew full time. Can't wait!
WEEK 17 BANK
7 POINT TEASER
BONUS - OFF THE RECORD
$100 PAYS $450
SEE BANK BETS (PREVIOUS POST)
