$100 2 TEAM PARLAY
BUF+1 @PHI
NE-3.5 @HOU
I know I swore off parlays - But - I only have 2 teams I feel strong about this week - so it makes sense for the bank. If these 2 hit - 14 weeks into one of the hardest handicapping seasons ever - the bank will be in the black going into week 15.
I do also like CAR as well - but ATL is the 12th ranked scoring defense and Panthers are giving 8.5. They should cover - but after 13 weeks you learn to trust your intuition. I visualized Bengals covering easy at home and did not be them vs Cleveland. I can picture Falcons keeping it close this week - they shouldn't - but I'm gonna trust my gut and stay off.
RICK PICKS (OFF THE RECORD)
OAK +7 @ DEN
I do Like Del Rio to throw the kitchen sink at Denver. Broncos defense will be missing some key players. The #3 Pass Off of Oakland could keep it close
@STL+3 vs DET
Keenum will start at home and I like fisher to give Stafford headaches.
Far from a lock - just like Keenum to redeem himself in this situation.
There are a lot of other games that look like obvious Dog Plays. Saints and Titans +7 - but the match ups favored the favorites pretty heavy. May still be good dogs - just staying off them.
SEA cold cover 13 at BAL with Schuab or Clausen at QB and star TE Gilmore (4tds) Doubtful.
Hawks RB Rawls already has more TDs (4) than Lynch (3) with less than half the carries. The knock on this one is the BAL Rush Def is 8th.
WHAT THE HELL?
Nothing makes sense this year - why should we. Actually there are dogs I like and love in a tease. Also favorites I feel good about giving less points. So, risking $50 for chance at a nice return.
NOTE:
(A friend encouraged me to take a little less profit 3-1 instead of 4-1 with a 7 point teaser- instead of 6 and get 10 on the Rams and 14 on Oakland). No reason to be greedy or careless. "Hogs get fat - Pigs get slaughtered". I think that's how the saying goes. I can't pad the record with the tease. The whole ticket is 1 win or 1 loss.
BONUS BANK BET
5 team 7 Point Tease
HEAD TO HEAD (2 team Parlay)
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
PostGame_____________________
Well, Vikings Fumble in Red Zone and Drop a Pick 6 or we cover. Vikings In FG Range at the end to make it 23-23 and a guaranteed cover for us in OT (MIN+11) & (Over 46.5). Fumble. Can't whine about it. On to the weekend.
BTW only breaking my rules on parlays on the Thursday and Monday games when it makes sense. No regrets - if they played tomorrow I'd bet it again.
PreGame______________________
MIN+11 @ARI (46.5)
BANK BET MIN+11 (OVER 46.5)
The Safe bet is just the OVER. Both defenses are hurting bad. MIN is hurting worse - thus the line. But - I factored both and still like the Vikings to cover 11. Vikings lose on Pass Off but win big on Off Line and Rush Offense - should slow Cards enough for MIN to cover 11.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
I had 3 people tell me they hate football and quit betting last week - not followers of mine - just people at the golf range. Our Local Las Vegas Guro from the newspaper went 0-5 a week ago. Oh well... no on said it would be easy.
85 games left - I love a good challenge and the late season has always been very good to us. Our Win/Loss Record is just above 49% and the bank is only down about 20%.
I think we have survived arguably the hardest season to handicap in history rather nicely.
Let end it with some wins!
@WAS -3.5 vs DAL (42)
(OFF) Projected 20-20 (40)
When I capped this game - I fully expected the Redskins to dominate the Match Up. They didn't. Neither team did. (See Head to Head Below)
I'm off - but - I suggest you do a 7 point teaser with the team you like and the Over.
HEAD TO HEAD
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That's Entertainment
May not have gone our way - but it wasn't boring. On the NFL Sunday Ticket - 4 team mosaic - I simultaneously watched a blocked punt run back for a TD against our Pats and a blocked extra point run back vs our Panthers.
Later in the afternoon the Mosaic was down to 2 games. We got to watch Brady damn near comeback from a 21 point deficit - with Gronk and Eddelman in - he probably would have. On the other half of the screen Brees and Newton went down to the wire like super heroes battling over Gotham City. Newton prevailed but did not cover. We got our money's worth.
NE
3 Special teams muffs by NE cost us 21 points and the game. 1) Failed onside resulting in PHI TD drive. 2) Blocked Punt TD and 3) Punt Returned for TD all by the Eagles.
CAR or CIN
The system called 2 teams Panthers and Bengals. I chose the wrong system pick. Hindsight is always 20-20. Lets see Bengals at home vs Browns or Panthers vs Brees and Payton in the dome. In my defense - if Eifert with 12 TDs was not out for Bengals - we would have taken them instead.
DEN
Was a great call. I predicted the Broncos Defense would shut down Rivers and win it - they did 17-3.
IND
Started out OK - but Steelers ran them over at Home. I do not think PIT is that good - But Colts were that bad last night.
PREGAME ________________
I feel good about this weeks picks. We'll see? View Head to Head Notes.
The system also loves Bengals - but Giving 9 and starting TE Eifert (12 TDs) is Doubtful for CIN. Love my Bills too - but the system doesn't - HOU very weak schedule strength tho - Bills 2nd hardest. (See Other Games Below)
@ NE -9 vs PHI
IND +7.5 @ PIT
CAR -6.5 @ NO
DEN -3.5 @ SD
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK - VIEW IMAGE MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
OTHER GAMES
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK - VIEW IMAGE MAGNIFY)
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I was just talking to my business partner about lst nights parlay. For no reason in particular he just reminded me out of the blue - that when you lose and push on a teaser (or win and push for that matter) You get your money back. In the back of my mind - I thought - didn't we have one of those recently?
As you know Teasers are not my specialty - I've only done 2 I think on the virtual bank. Lucky for us - one of them was a loss and a push.
In Week 10 we had a 7 point Teaser with:
Green Bay (teased to -4.5) vs Lions (Loss)
and
Patriots (teased to -1) vs Giants - Final NE 27-26 (Push)
I did not know at the time that we get our money back on that ticket. I never put the $150 back in the Virtual Bank. On the left in the Week 10 Bank Receipt (below) Return Week should have been $150 - Not $0.
WEEK 10 BANK RECEIPT
We began the week with $641 in the Virtual Bank.
with the win last Night paying for $107 and that $150 from Week 10 - we're already back to $898. Only down 10% on the year and our Win / Loss Record is just above 50%. 32-31.
WEEK 13 BANK RECEIPT
[ As of today there are 99 games left in the year counting playoffs and the super bowl. Plenty of games to achieve our goal of 60% and to make a profit for the bank. ]
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PostGame - Miracle at Motown!
I honestly believe that luck is progressive. It makes sense mathematically. You keep pulling that handle - the slot gets full and eventually spits out coins. If you chase bets in a casino - you can lose your house that way too - but you know what I mean. Knowing we were due for a little "good luck" truly was a big part of why I bet tonight. It was a good match up for GB - but in addition - we have had so much bad luck we really were due for a little good.
I could not have imagined, in my wildest dreams, how much luck it would take for us to win tonight. It's all part of history now. Framing that ticket.
Yeah that just Happened....
(2nd Half) - Packers Scoreless. (DET 20 -0)
(5:48 3rd Quarter) GB recovers own fumble in End Zone. (DET 20-7)
(4:06 3rd Quarter) Rodgers to Adams end zone TD! (DET 20-14)
(7:07 4th Quarter) Lions FG - Ouch! This is Over. (DET 23-14)
(3:04 4th Quarter) 3rd /11 - Rodgers forced out of Pocket runs 20yds TD! (DET 23-21)
(0:06 4th quarter)
Keep in mind at this point - 6 Seconds Left - We Have GB -2.5 / Over 47
So, GB can win with a FG but not cover and would Push the Over (47) = We Lose.
(0:06 4th quarter) GB from their own 21
Aaron Rodgers short pass to Jones
Jones tosses it back to Rodgers, he turns and throws it back to Aaron Rodgers
Rodger pulled down - Game Over - Wait - "We got a flag! Facemask called on DET.
(It was a bad call - Lions Defender grazed but never pulled on Facemask - not 15 yds)
GB gets the 15 yd penalty - moves the ball to the GB 40.
Fortunately for us out of FG range.
(Last Play of the Game - for real this time)
Rodgers from shotgun - rolls left - sacked - no - gets away - rolls right
Sets up to throw - launches it high and deep 70 yards! -
Richard Rodgers backs into end zone - leaps - catches it - TD!
The packers go nuts - clipboards flying - arms raised - Packers Win!
(Final) GB 27-23
GB -2.5 BY 4 OVER 47 (50)
This has to be a first:
WR- Richard Rodgers to QB - Aaron Rodgers
Next Play
QB -Aaron Rodgers to WR - Richard Rodgers
Watch Video
@RickOnTheStrip
PreGame _________________
Bank Bet
GB -2.5 @DET (47) Over
Projected GB 34 -21 (55)
I did not plan on betting this game at all. However, the line dropped to less than a FG and GB does look really good in the Match Up - as does the Over. The bank has $41 Spare change so I went for it. The knock with this game is that GB is 31st in Schedule Strength, but DET is 21st. They don't win Off Line - but neither does DET. Packers do not win Red Zone Def - But neither does DET - thus the Over. GB does win Pass Off Big!
If you look at Overall Off vs Def in the middle of the Match Up (below) - GB Blue on both Sides and DET Red on both. I know I swore off parlays - But - We're not risking much and stand to make a nice gain if we hit. I do think Green Bay has something to Prove tonight after losing to the Lions at home. Hard to beat a team twice in the same year. Especially one that has had your number for a decade. Go Packers! Run it up guys - just win by 3 Pack.
Head to Head
Bank Receipt
