HOW TO READ THE SYSTEM

The purpose of my NFL Handicapping System is to provide Head to Head Statistical Game Data - so you can make better picks. This isn't available anywhere else - which is why I created it. 

Based on the last two years - the system is right about 70% of the time. There is no guarantee that will continue. So, once again - it's really about using the data to make an educated guess. 

The system will tell us who SHOULD win the game. It's up to you to decide who WILL. 

When I choose the picks from the system - I like best - rather than just providing you with the top rated picks - the results vary.  

Week 4 System Picks 2-1 66%

(W) IND  - 8.5 OVER JAC

(W) KC       -4 OVER NYG

(L) STL     +3 OVER SF

My Top Week 4 System Picks 2-1 66%

(W) IND  - 8.5 OVER JAC 

(L) CIN  - 3.5 OVER CLE

(W) TB / ARI  UNDER   

Had I chose the top System Picks with the TB under I called - we would have had a Winning Parlay.

(W) IND  - 8.5 OVER JAC

(W) KC       -4 OVER NYG

(W) TB / ARI  UNDER  


My Week 4 Picks were 7-4 63%

To Simplify Things:
I will Post The System Picks in order of Ratings - So YOU can SEE who Qualified and WHO were the Top PICKS. It's pretty simple. We are looking for a WINNER or and OVER / UNDER pick. (see below).   Thank you anonymous for your input and support

WEEK 4 NFL GAMES AND PICKS

NEW AND IMPROVED. 

(Quick View) Games and Picks: 
http://www.happycapper.com/GamesWk4.html

New Head to Head Game Matchups:
Happycapper.com/Head_To_Head
(updated Sat) (Pryor Out Oak)


My Top 3 Picks for the Week:

IND  - 8.5 OVER JAC  (BET QUICK - LINE WILL RISE)
CIN  - 4.5 OVER CLE (CIN DID NOT COVER SPREAD IN MUP)
UND (40.5)  - TB /ARI

These are all System Picks that I also Picked on my own. 
  
Crazy Moneyline of the Week:

NYG OVER KC +185
PHI OVER DEN+450  

Highest Rated System Matchup Winners

IND - 8.5 OVER JAC  IND BY (149)
KC  - 4    OVER NYG  KC BY (134)    ( I took NYG ) What do I know?

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL POST GAME REVIEW. NINERS ARE BACK!

Jim Harbough - the coach of the San Francisco 49ers could learn something form 20 year old PGA rookie Jordan Spieth.

The Niners just played 3 of the best teams in football. Yeah they lost a few. In response he paniced. Harbough even took the game out of Cappernicks hands for the first quarter of the Rams Niner game. On their first possession Harbough calls a draw to Gore on 3rd and 11.That didn't work. Yeah Gore deserved more touches - but not on 3rd and 11. By the second quarter he gave the ball back to Cap and Boldin. What do you know - TDs!. It's all about balance, Gore had a great game because the pass threat was working. In turn, Gore helped the pass game as a rushing threat. 

Ay problems SF is suffering are due to coaching and play calling - not player talent or devotion. Jordan Spieth has come back several times on a Sunday to win or place after being down by more than 6 strokes. When you get a little behind or loose a few - you dont panic - just stay loose, confident and play to your game.

Prime time was a little hard on Bradford who has maintained a good passing rating with no Offensive Line or Run Game. He is not the Problem in St. Louis. Caution, Gore ran it up vs a very tired Ram defense. Offense wasn't on the field much. That's why they held SF to 3 in the first quarter then the damn burst.

Props to Navaro Bowmen for stepping up in place of Smith and Willis. I called the return of the Niner offense, but not the banged up Niner Defense. Knock it off Bowmen - I had the Over. Luckily, the Niner offense covered for me. 

WEEK 3 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013

SEASON TOTAL: 21 -7 72% / STRATEGY
Games and Picks available at: 
http://www.happycapper.com/Results2013.html

WEEK 3: 9 - 3 75%

System is solid and I haven't won a bet yet.  It's always a challenge to choose between what you see watching games ad what the stats tell you. Intangibles can be priceless or worthless. Had to figure Cleveland had given up for the season last week - trading Richardson that early in the season. But - they were fired up and won. At the same time - watching Seattle run up scores of 50+ last year - gave me confidence to give 19.5 on them last week vs the worst team in the league. System also called that. They covered easy. 

So, my new strategy is to pick from the system picks the 3 games that qualify - that I like best. Or 2 - 3 team parlays. I can always throw in another small ticket based strictly on Gut picks and or Money lines.  

I don't believe in betting anything I cant afford to throw out the car window. That's why I still live indoors. Otherwise, obviously - @ (21-7) - $100 a game straight up and I'd be ahead by about $1400 minus the vig. But, that's a lot of stack to throw around each week. I can win that in 2 parlays anyway. 


If you bet $50 at 6-1 there's $300 profit (plus your $50 buck back). Then take the $300 and bet a 3 team parlay again the next week. If you hit two weeks in a row - $1800. Money risked - $50. 
If not start over with the $50 you have left over form the first week. Oh yeah if you hit 2 weeks in a row - keep the money and start over. Maybe with $100?

Good luck everyone!

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 4 2013

As Promised!

SF - 3 vs STL
System Pick: STL +3
Rick Pick: Over   

The system picked STL with a Matchup Rating of (45), which is strong. But projected a TIE: - 21-21, so STL only technically Qualifies as a System Pick by getting 3 points. I see a 50 50 chance of this being a close game and STL squeaking out a win.  My System has been way better at predicting winners this year than I have.  

I do think there is also a 50% chance that SF comes out swinging and blows STL right off the field. 

SF has played 3 very good teams, GB,  SEA and yes - IND. I was not impressed with Colts after week 2, but stats show them ranked 7th overall; 4th in Off Line, 2nd rush off and 8th in Pass Def.  STL won close games over ARI (27th), A decent ATL team (14th) and lost to (6th) ranked DAL.  It is so early that these ranks may be upside down within 2 weeks. We do know SF played tough teams. 

I still think SF is a top 5 team.  However, with Aldon Smith gone, and Patrick Willis not practicing this week - the DEF is banged up.  Vernon Davis also (DNP) and is questionable on Offense. SF also has to travel cross country.  Fischer is a smart coach. If it is close (projected 21-21) the STL kicker 100% has the advantage over the Niner kicker 75%. For these reasons STL has a chance.

The STL Rush Off is 30th without Steven Jackson, so the banged up Niners defense can handle the Run. The wild card here is Bradford. With no Run game and a 25th ranked Off Line, the guy has performed with little or no support. That is not a recipe for long term success though.

SF is deep on Pass Offense and the STL Pass Def is 28th - Let's not forget about
Anquan Boldin.  STL Pass Offense currently 6th. Rather than picking a winner,  I like the OVER in this one (42). In a Dome. 

New Monday Night Football Opening

The lighting storms really disappointed me last week. Nothing hit John Gruden. We finally got rid of that backward ass country Muppet - Hank Williams jr. I used to actually change the channel until the game started. Now I have to listen to Gruden try to sound tough for 90 minutes. He's not coaching anymore because even his play calls talked to much. 

Actual Gruden play call :

"flip right, double-X, Jet, 36 counter, naked waggle, X-7, X-quarter.”

It's like someone cloned Howard Cosell with Christian Slater and gave them an 8 ball of meth. Watching the game now with the mute button on, listening to Dark Side of the Moon. May have to start smoking weed again. Zanex? Mute button?  Zanex? Mute button?

Speaking of Cosell, Love the new Monday Night Football retro opening, Hope they keep it for a while.

- Rick Jansen


Thank you Anonymous! 

Please see their comments (below). Good tips on early and late betting.  Also, thanks for the suggestion of posting earlier. I have been posting much later than usual. The excuse would be waiting for injury updates. But the truth is I've just been busy running my Web Design company. Right now I am trying to post the system in a way that is easier to view and understand, But, thanks to your suggestion, I will post the raw string and Picks earlier this week in the meantime on http://www.happycapper.com  I'll have The Thursday Night Game up by Tomorrow - Wednesday night. I'll have the rest up by Friday, One problem I can not solve is that the stats I pull are not available until Tuesday, sometimes Wednesday morning. I will keep working on this and hope the new look (once it's up - will be easier to read and understand). The goal is to provide helpful data and let you make the final call.

Thank you gamble4life for following. 

Everyone feel free to comment. Please encourage your friends to post comments and follow.  Power in numbers! You can always be sure your data is private, never shared and you wont be spammed. This site is about enjoying sports and helping each other beat the odds - nothing else.

Good luck and thanks again! 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TWO TEAM PARLAY WEEK 3 2013

LAST CHANCE TO HIT THIS WEEK. 

JUST FOR FUN

$20 OAK MONEYLINE OVER
WITH 
$20 OAK MONEYLINE UNDER

AT +1000 AND -110,  IT PAYS $400 EITHER WAY. OR NOTHING.

OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A FUN PICK NOT A SERIOUS CALL. ALTHOUGH I DO THINK THE OAK DEF (4.5 SACKS PER GAME AND TOP 10 PASS DEF) HAS A 20-30% CHANCE OF GIVING MANNING TROUBLE. THEY ARE ALSO #2 IN RUSHING - (2 WEEKS IN). BUT PRYOR (2ND IN TOTAL PASSING YDS) AND THE OAK 28TH RATED PASS OFFENSE WILL NEED TO HAVE A BIG GAME AGAINST TOP 10 DENVER PASS DEF AND #1 PASS OFF.   60- 70% CHANCE DENVER BLOWS THEM OFF THE FIELD. DEN GIVING 15 POINTS FOR A REASON.  WORTH A SHOT FOR $40 AT THOSE ODDS.

TOP NFL PICKS WEEK 3 2013

SYSTEM PICS

HOU   -2.5 BAL

BUF +2.5  NYJ

CAR +1  NYG
SEA  -19.5  JAC

RICK PICS

GB   -3   CIN 

SF  -10   IND
TEN  -3  SD (RICK)

OAK   +15   DEN

VIEW ALL HEAD TO HEAD NFL MATCHUPS, PICKS AND STATS:

http://www.happycapper.com/images/Head_To_Head_NFL_Matchups_Week_3.JPG

NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS WEEK 2

TOTAL: 12-4 75%

WEEK 2: SYSTEM: 7-2 78%
WEEK 2: RICK: 6-7 46%

WEEK 1: SYSTEM: 5-2 71%
WEEK 1: RICK: 5-2 71%

See Picks, Games and Scores:  http://www.happycapper.com/Results2013.html

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL GAME SUMMARY WEEK 2

PHI

1. PHI PASS DEFENSE IMPROVED
OR 
SAND DIEGO PASS OFFENSE IS LEGIT (THE LATER)

2. LIGHTNING FAST OFFENSE HAS STALLED
OR
KC DEFENSE IS FOR REAL.

4. VIC IS STILL CARELESS AND WILL TURN IT OVER.


KC

1. DEFENSE MAY BE REAL. HELD PHI TO 16.

2.ONE MAN OFFENSE - JAMAL CHARLES

3. 5 TRIPS TO RED ZONE 4 FGs.

4. OFFENSIVE LINE IS POROUS.

WEEK 3 STATS

STILL TOO EARLY TO TRUST STATS. FOR EXAMPLE:
KC 100% RED ZONE OFFENSE LAST WEEK. THIS WEEK 20%.
PHI ALLOWED 60% RED ZONE TDs - ONLY 20% THIS WEEK.

PARODY MAKES IT EVEN MORE DIFFICULT.  FOR INSTANCE - PHI 28TH PASS DEF AFTER PLAYING SD. IS SD THE PASS OFF LEGIT? OR IS PHI PD THAT BAD. RIVER IS HISTORICALLY HORRIBLE -- BUT GREAT RECEIVERS. SO FOR NOW WE RESPOECT SD PASS OFF? UNTIL THEY PLAY SEA, GB OR SF.  ONCE WE SEPARATE THE CONTENDERS FROM PRETENDERS IT WILL GET EASIER.

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL WEEK 3 MATCHUP 2013

This one was hard. Off! Don't want this one to count against the System Record.

Here's the Juice!

Both teams untested.  

CASE FOR PHI:
KC WINS ARE VS JAC (32) AND DAL(12) - NOT TESTED.
VET LB COLE 71 SACKS OVER ROOKIE BACK UP KC TE
KC KICKER SUCCOP ONLY 50% FG %
ROMO FOUND SOME OPEN RECEIVERS VS KC LAST WEEK. - TOO MUCH SPEED AND TALENT ON PHI TO COMPLETELY SHUT THEM DOWN. 
REED WAS A HORRIBLE OFFENSIVE COACH IN PHI - TIME WILL TELL IN KC. 

CASE FOR KC:
PHI WINS ARE VS WAS (29th) AND SD (27th) - NOT TESTED.
KC PASS DEF 2ND ( VIC IS CARELESS) RUSH DEF 1ST (ITS EARLY THO)  
PHI PASS DEF IS HORRIBLE AT 28TH VS QUESTIONABLE TEAMS - SMITH WAS EFFICIENT VS DALLAS AND SHOULD PERFORM SURGERY ON PHI PD. 
REED  WANTS THIS ONE BAD 

W KC: (27)  3 PASS TDS, 1 - INT RESULTING IN A FG. 1 RUN RESULTING IN A FG. 
PHI (24) : 2 PASS TDS, 1 RUN TD AND A FG.
L OVER 50.5  (51) W System called UNDER 46.5 (below)

WHAT THE HELL DO I KNOW?  ASK ME ABOUT GOLF. LOL

                                                  

                                               CLICK TO VIEW MATCH UP BELOW

DONT BUY THE CALVIN KLEINS

Unless of course a young Brooke Shields is still in them. I wasted money on brand names last week. Ignored my system and went with trusted names over perennial losers. 

Much like Wal-Marts insistence on low prices has forced American institutions to produce inferior products overseas. The NFL's campaign for parody has produced an epidemic of mediocrity. Tried to cut a tomato with a Farberware steak knife lately? Splat! 

There are three professional teams in football right now. Seattle, San Francisco and Green Bay. The other 29 teams should be viewed from a wait and see perspective.

PGA BMW - HAD THE LEADERS ALL WEEKEND - 4 WINS IN 5 WEEKS - THANKS ZACH!

http://www.happycapper.com/PGA.html

NFL UPSET OF THE WEEK WEEK 2 3013

L NYG +4.5 OVER DEN

I have been saying for a while that the loss of McGehee in DEN will spell disaster for Peyton Manning. He has no run game. My prediction was that as soon as Broncos play a team with a decent Pass Rush and prolific Offense - they would lose.

As pathetic as NYG may be. They do qualify. The New York Defensive Line will win this for NYG. Look for Manning - Peyton that is - face down for a good part of this game

NFL PARLAY OF THE WEEK WEEK 2 2013

L PHI - 7 OVER SD

I could be wrong, it's only one week - but the PHI no huddle offense was on fire last week. Speed kills and if they repeat anything close to the Offensive Laser show last week - it should equate to an easy win. I am not sold on SD.  Rivers is one of the worst QBs in the NFL. I do not expect him to repeat his 4 TD performance of last week. Chargers defense seemed strong - but stats are all in the 20s. D line 23rd, Pass Def 28th, Rush Def 20th. Eagles sacked RG3 - 3 times last week. Should be long day for Rivers. Hey, Chargers could be for real and PHI week 1 performance could be a fluke. My money's on PHI. At least this week verses a perennial loser like SD. If Vick doesn't get too careless - this ones money. 

W ATL - 6.5 OVER STL

Two words, Stephen Jackson. Can you say "Payback? Rams looked good last week - but verses ARI.  STL has no run game and Falcons have just too many weapons. 

W OAK -5.5 Over JAC

The worst team in the NFL (JAC) has to travel cross country. JAC 0 TDs in Red Zone last week. Red Zone Defense Allowed 100% TDs. KIcker Janikowski is hurting - but they may not need him. OAK 67% TDs in RedZone verses Colts.  OAK 4 sacks last week. Gabbert and Henne vulnerable to sacks.

NFL WEEK 2 MATCHUPS PARLAY 1 (TOP PICKS)

NFL WEEK 2 MATCHUPS PARLAY 2

WEEK 2 NFL MATCHUPS (NON BETS)

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME SUMMARY. RYAN TAKES CLOWN CAR ON THE ROAD

Jets Defense
If you're a Jets fan - here's the good news. After just one week I doubted the validity of top 10 Defensive Line and Pass Defense stats. Don't! They are for real. Rex Ryan has always been an above average Defensive coach. The jets defense carried the team for 4 quarters. Congratulations! Fantastic Performance. You almost won the game. Maybe if you played both ways.

Jets Offense
The bad news is that Rex couldn't spell "Offense" with with a sharp crayon in a quiet room. His ignorance starts at the top and works its way down, into every aspect of the offense.

Stupid is What Stupid Does
Lets start with his Offensive coordinator.  Marty Mornhinweg is as smart as he looks. You have two running backs averaging over 4 yards per carry. So, lets take away any run threat that might give your rookie QB breathing room - by running a shotgun offense. While you're at it Marty- don't let either back develop any rhythm - switch them out every play. Chris Ivory is a superstar in waiting. The idea of a simple run, run pass progression easily eludes Marty.


Ryan's incompetence is most visible in his inability to coach offensive players. Receivers dropping balls. He has absolutely no idea what to do with Geno Smith. He's posing and throwing off his back foot. Has no idea how to look off, lead a receiver, or read coverage. He actually stands in the pocket and stares at his target. A corner-backs wet dream.

Ryan Takes Clown Car on the Road
Rex out did himself tonight, by choosing not to put anyone back to field punts. Which, by the way, didn't get them even close to blocking a single punt. It did however, cost them close to a hundred yards in lost return yardage. Not to mention Field Position that would have given them several opportunities to kick a winning field goal.

Sanchez is worthless and should pursue a reality TV career - while people still recognize his name.  As bad as Geno Smith is, he shows some great raw talent. He just needs to be coached. Sorry wrong team for that. Rex should be selling shoes and look for Mark on the next Celebrity Rehab Survivor.   

Belichick Ego Out of Control 
His enormous ego has finally caught up to him.  Sure... you can get rid of your entire receiving core and just make new players. Good luck with that.
 

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL WEEK 2 MATCHUP 2013

Torn on this one. Brady two bad games in a row? At Home verse the clown car. I'm OFF - but here's a fun cover, $30 NYJ Moneyline and Under (pays $325). $20 NE / OVR ($72). Gangedt o OVR on NE-  if Brady gets hot.  I like Ivory vs week DLine and RD of NE. Smartest play - don't bet, or just take NYJ and the points<WINNER. But that wouldn't be any fun.

Click to enlarge stats below.

NFL RESULTS WEEK ONE 2013 5-2 71%

VEGAS ODDS PGA BMW 2013

PAYS AMT OD PLAYER 300 20 15 Rory McIlroy (Bad Dr Acur) 450 30 15 >Steve Stricker 500 20 25 Jason Dufner 900 30 30 >Jordan Spieth 600 20 30 Jim Furyk 400 10 40 Zach Johnson 400 10 40 >Graham DeLaet 800 10 80 >Roberto Castro 750 5 150 Angel Cabrera 150 10 15 FIELD
My Top 10 Above. > = My Top Picks Here are the live odds that can be found on the Bet Sheets at LVH http://www.golfodds.com/

Eagles Invade Washington. RG3 Mounts Comeback.

I wrote the first line of this article at halftime. "The Washington Redskins have more heart than any other team in the NFL." I considered this in my attempt to predict a final outcome near the end of the second quarter. The skins were down big. Would Vic be careless and give up the lead?  Could RG3 and the Skins regroup? We'll come back to heart. 

Speed kills and the Philadelphia offense is living proof. A lighting fast no huddle offense ran over a confused and helpless Redskins defense - right out of the gate. It was like a hoard of Ninjas attacking an unsuspecting group elderly insurance salesmen. The Skins defense might have recovered sooner from the shock, but were never given the opportunity to catch their breath. The Redskin offense wasn't on the field long enough to relieve them.

The appearance of RG3 didn't seem like the deployment of a state of the art weapon. This was  retro fashion and last years Ipod. His injury prevented him from pushing off his right leg, taking the power and accuracy away from his passes. Unlike Vic, he was not a running threat. We all knew he was headed out of bounds. His lack of play put the whole offense into slow motion. An offense that the was no longer new to the league or unfamiliar to a college coach like Chip Kelly. The cadence, was new to the offensive line, who had not played with him for a year. False starts and miscues plagued Washington like locust. It was kind of sad, had we seen the last of the smartest most talented QB to enter the NFL in decades? 

Back to heart. Washington is not a team deep in talent or speed. But I can not recall a team more devoted to playing for each other until they win or drop dead trying. And that is exactly what they did. An exhausted defense made plays to give Griffin another chance. He took it. Not by running, but passing. He suddenly started dissecting the Eagle defense with veteran reads and pin point accuracy. He, I mean they, didn't quit.  They almost pulled it off. Heart can be a game changer.  Wish they had a stat for it.

NFL PARLAY OF THE WEEK

#1
SEA - 3.5 OVER  CAR

CAR  has a good defense. But, my opinion of Cam Newton has gone from "Boy Wonder" to "I Wonder". He needs to follow the leadership example set by RG3 - actually watching the game and supporting his team, during a sideline interview.  A stark contrast to Newton's sideline antics, which border on hyperactive and downright silly.  Last year he hung his head and complained. This year he is over doing it the other way. He's a great talent - hope he matures into the superstar he is capable of becoming. However, at this point - the Panthers are not even close to being ready to handle the best team in the NFL.

#2
HOU - 4 OVER SD 

After last years pathetic performances - Schaub is suspect. *I was surprised to find HOU statistically #1 in Pass Offense after calculating overall Preseason stats. I will trust the numbers this week vs a bad team like the Chargers. *The SD 30th ranked Pass Offense -will not keep up with Foster ( Full Practice) and the rest of the HOU offense. A whiny Phillip Rivers will be pummeled by pro bowlers Cushing and Watt.

#3
CIN + 3 OVER CHI

*The Bengals #1 Offensive Line should control the game vs the 26th rated Def Line of CHI. Cutler,. like River's is also a Whiny bitch. *CHI ranked 29th in Pass Offense during the Preseason.

*NOTE:  We'll see this week if Preseason stats hold any water for week one.

NFL WEEK 1 TOP PICKS

RAVENS BEAT THEMSELVES...DENVER NEXT TO FALL

Raven players knocking each other out of the game (including two starters that may be out for weeks) was the least of Baltimore's problems. Harbough ignored screaming players alerting him to challenge an obvious dropped ball by Denver. A simple challenge makes it 4th down, prevents a Bronco TD and the Denver scoring orgy that ensued. When you see this level of disorganization and veterans like Dallas Clarke dropping not one - but two balls - the blame for lack of preparation falls squarely on the coach.

The Baltimore offensive line did not open a hole all night. This left Rice zig zagging in the backfield the entire game.  Tom Brady signed for 57 million. Flacco's $120 Million dollar contract reminds me of the Peanuts insurance commercial. Some things should be five cents. Flacco wasn't great last year to begin with. The Ravens were erratic and mediocre most of last year. They somehow snuck into the playoffs and got lucky - verses superior teams with faulty game plans. 

Flacco threw first quarter pick sixes in two separate preseason games this year and I do not see things improving. I predict he loses the starting job to Tyrod Taylor by mid season. Taylor  secured two second half preseason victories following lack luster Flacco performance's. They will need a mobile QB with an offensive line unable to produce any kind of run game. That was Harbough's second huge blunder tonight. Down by 3 TDs he didn't give his enormously talented back up a chance to prove himself late in the game. Harbough needs to take a lesson from his brother in SF.  However, the price tag they paid Flacco will likely prevent them from benching Flacco any time soon. "Buh Bye now Ravens". Call me when you smell the coffee.

Denver has no run game. Manning has viable targets. But if you can't run - you cant pass. The impact of the loss of McGehee has been gravely underestimated. Moreno is not the answer. Defenses will tee off on Peyton all year long.  Wes Welker is one of the few reasons they will win half their games this year. Sending him back to return punts may prove to be a costly mistake down the road. 

Put this one in your back pocket. These two teams will beat up on the lower end of the NFL gene pool and get creamed by any team with a pass rush and prolific offense.  Baltimore is toast as long as Flacco remains at the helm. Without a run game - Manning will probably not survive the season. Don't let the network celebration of the emperor's news cloths mislead you. The ineptitude of the Baltimore offense required the Raven defense to stay on the field the majority of the game. That and only that allowed Denver to shine in the second half.  Here's the good news. You can still get +7 or more when Denver plays a decent team and gets their ass handed to them. Can you say Moneyline?

NFL WEEK 1 MATCHUPS 2013