As Promised!
SF - 3 vs STL
System Pick: STL +3
Rick Pick: Over
The system picked STL with a Matchup Rating of (45), which is strong. But projected a TIE: - 21-21, so STL only technically Qualifies as a System Pick by getting 3 points. I see a 50 50 chance of this being a close game and STL squeaking out a win. My System has been way better at predicting winners this year than I have.
I do think there is also a 50% chance that SF comes out swinging and blows STL right off the field.
SF has played 3 very good teams, GB, SEA and yes - IND. I was not impressed with Colts after week 2, but stats show them ranked 7th overall; 4th in Off Line, 2nd rush off and 8th in Pass Def. STL won close games over ARI (27th), A decent ATL team (14th) and lost to (6th) ranked DAL. It is so early that these ranks may be upside down within 2 weeks. We do know SF played tough teams.
System Pick: STL +3
Rick Pick: Over
The system picked STL with a Matchup Rating of (45), which is strong. But projected a TIE: - 21-21, so STL only technically Qualifies as a System Pick by getting 3 points. I see a 50 50 chance of this being a close game and STL squeaking out a win. My System has been way better at predicting winners this year than I have.
I do think there is also a 50% chance that SF comes out swinging and blows STL right off the field.
SF has played 3 very good teams, GB, SEA and yes - IND. I was not impressed with Colts after week 2, but stats show them ranked 7th overall; 4th in Off Line, 2nd rush off and 8th in Pass Def. STL won close games over ARI (27th), A decent ATL team (14th) and lost to (6th) ranked DAL. It is so early that these ranks may be upside down within 2 weeks. We do know SF played tough teams.
I still think SF is a top 5 team. However, with Aldon Smith gone, and Patrick Willis not practicing this week - the DEF is banged up. Vernon Davis also (DNP) and is questionable on Offense. SF also has to travel cross country. Fischer is a smart coach. If it is close (projected 21-21) the STL kicker 100% has the advantage over the Niner kicker 75%. For these reasons STL has a chance.
The STL Rush Off is 30th without Steven Jackson, so the banged up Niners defense can handle the Run. The wild card here is Bradford. With no Run game and a 25th ranked Off Line, the guy has performed with little or no support. That is not a recipe for long term success though.
SF is deep on Pass Offense and the STL Pass Def is 28th - Let's not forget about
Anquan Boldin. STL Pass Offense currently 6th. Rather than picking a winner, I like the OVER in this one (42). In a Dome.
1 comment:
Good call on the over, thanks
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