NFL PICKS WEEK 9 THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP 2014

______POSTGAME______

GLAD I STAYED OFF
HALF RIGHT 
SAINTS COVERED
IF PANTEHRS COULD CATCH - WOULD HAVE GONE OVER. 

______PREGAME______
NO -3 @ CAR (49.5) 

VIEW FULL MATCHUP 

YOU MAKE THE CALL!

http://happycapper.com/2014WK9EARLY.htmL

OFF THIS GAME

REALLY CLOSE  BE CAREFUL

CASE FOR SAINTS

 SAINTS HAVE #1 OFF LINE AND RUSH OFF - CAR DL AND RUSH DEF NEAR LAST . NO 4TH PASS OFFENSE VS CAR 16TH PASS DEF. CAR BAD RED ZONE OFF

 CASE FOR PANTHERS

SAINTS ARE NEAR LAST IN PASS DEF, BAD RED ZONE OFF AND ON THE ROAD, HUGE PENALTIES AND TURN OVERS.  CAR FEW PENALTIES. 

NO - RB / DEF STARTERS OUT

 CASE FOR UNDER

 BOTH ARE HORRIBLE IN RED ZONE - OVER FACTORED AT (49.5)

 CASE FOR OVER

SAINTS WILL RUN AND PASS ON CAR - CAR WILL PASS ON NO

THAT COULD SET UP CAR RUN GAME TOO

BEST GUESS

NO BY 4 / OVER (49.5)

JUST A GUESS - OFF THIS GAME
SAINTS INJURIES AND ROAD RECORD - RISKY
SAINTS COULD RUN IT UP OR GET CLOBBERED?

NFL PICKS WEEK 8 REVEIW

PARODY!

RIGHT NOW THERE ARE TWO GREAT TEAMS IN FOOTBALL

(I SAY "GREAT" - BUT THEY HAVE WEAKNESSES TOO)

 THE REST ARE JUST GOOD, BAD OR ON THE FENCE

IN ORDER OF WIN POTENTIAL

GREAT

NEW ENGLAND (6-2)

GOOD PO AND PD THE REST IS COMING TOGETHER

 DENVER (6-1)

SOLID TEAM BUT RUSH OFFENSE IS WEAK

GOOD

KC (4-3) 

DEF AND RUN GAME SOLID / PASS OFF SUSPECT - IMPROVING

 BAL (5-3)

SOLID OFF AND DEF - FLACCO BETTER BUT SUSPECT

CIN (4-2-1)

GOOD OFF/ WEAK DEF LINE AND RUSH DEF - THEY USUALLY CRASH

ARI (6-1)

GOOD RUSH DEF BUT BAD IN RED ZONE PALMER SUSPECT

IND (5-3)

SOLID OFF AND DEF - BUT UNTESTED SCHEDULE

DET (6-2)

GOOD DEF MAKING UP FOR HORRIBLE OFF LINE AND RUSH OFF

 PHI (5-2)

GOOD QB/ TALENT AND OFF LINE - DEF ? AND BAD IN RED ZONE

GB (5-3)

BAD OLINE AND DLINE  GOOD PASS OFF

DAL (6-2)

SOLID OLINE BUT AVG DEF  -  ROMO / COACH SUSPECT

HOU (4-4) 

PASS OFF AND DEF SUSPECT - COMING TOGETHER OF LATE

SD (5-3)

LACK OF RUSH OFFENSE KILLING THEM

ON THE FENCE 
 PIT (5-3)

JUST AVG / WEAK DEF LINE / BAD RED ZONE - BETTER LAST 2?

SEA (4-3) 

GOOD OL AND RO BUT PO AND PD STRUGGLING - TEAM IN TURMOIL

SF (4-3)

BAD COACHING KAPS ARM A LIABILITY

BUF (5-3)

SOLID DEFENSE AND ORTON SAVING LAST PLACE OFFENSE

CHI (3-5)

TOP 10 DEF BUT 3 AND OUTS WEARING DEFENSE DOWN

CAR (3-4)

NO OFF OR DEF LINE - PASS OFF SAVING THEM - BAD COACH

NO (3-4)

SOLID OFF LINE BUT HORRIBLE PASS DEF ( BAD ON RD)

ATL (2-6)

TALENTED OFF - BUT BAD OFF LINE AND NO DEFENSE 

 MIA (4-3) 

GOOD DEFENSE - NO OFFENSE

MIN (3-5) 

TEDDY AMAZING - NO OFFENSIVE LINE - GOOD PD

WAS (3-5)

WEAK OFFENSE - SOLID DEF LINE

BAD

NYG (3-4)

CRUZ LOSS WAS CRITICAL - BAD BUT STILL DANGEROUS

 CLE (4-3)

GOOD OFF LINE BAD DEF LINE QBs QUESTIONABLE

TB (1-6)

GLENNON GOOD QB BUT NEAR LAST IN OFF AND DEF 

STL (2-6)

DEF NEAR LAST - FISHER MAKES THEM DANGEROUS

TEN (2-6)

QB CHANGES KILLING THEM / BAD PO AND RD

JAC (1-7)  

GOOD DEF LINE - NEAR LAST ON OFFENSE

OAK (0-7)

BAD OFF LINE AND DEF BUT GOOD OFF IN RD ZONE?

NYJ (1-7)

CLOWN CAR IS BEING TOWED

OUR RECORD 

34-21 62% (61.8)

NOT THRILLED WITH 62%

BUT LOOK A THE COMPETITION
AVG 45-50%
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/

LOTTA SEASON LEFT

IT SHOULD GET EASIER NOW

3-2 WEEK 8

 GOOD LUCK!

NFL PICKS WEEK 8 MONDAY NIGHT MATCHUP 2014

______POSTGAME______

As predicted Colt McCoy was Horrible. 
Yeah they won and he had 2 good runs.
But he under-threw receivers all night. 
That gave DAL enough 3 and outs for a route.
But the 10th Ranked WAS Def Line 
Forced 3 and Outs of their own.
So many, that it turned into a practice session for McCoy.
He got enough right for the win. 
 The 10th Ranked WAS Def Line 
Was in Our Matchup.
I'll do a "Case For" Each Team like normal on Thursday. 
That will help us catch those Mismatches on either side.
Good Luck!


______PREGAME______

@DAL - 9.5 vs WAS (49.5)

VIEW FULL MATCHUP
SCROLL TO BOTTOM OF PAGE 
http://happycapper.com/2014WK8LATE.htmL

OFF THIS GAME

HERE IS A PREVIEW:

BOTH TEAMS HAVE PLAYED AVERAGE OPPONENTS

THAT CAN SKEW THE STATS A LITTLE

DAL OFFENSE 4TH / DEFENSE 16TH

WAS OFFENSE 27TH / DEFENSE 9TH

DAL TOP 10 OFF LINE, RUSH OFF AND PASS OFF  

THE KEY HERE IS THE QBS

MCCOY (STARTING FOR WAS) HAS A MISERABLE RECORD

LAST WEEK MCCOY HAD GREAT CATCHES - NOT GREAT THROWS

 WHO KNOWS - PEOPLE CHANGE - BUT NOT OFTEN.

 THAT HOLD TRUE FOR ROMO

I''LL BET HE WILL BE ROMO AGAIN SOON AND GIVE UP THE BALL

 MAYBE NOT TONIGHT

DAL HAS A TON OF WEAPONS

COUSINS ISN'T THE PROBLEM OR MCCOY THE ANSWER IN WAS

WAS OFFENSE 27TH - COULD PRODUCE 3 AND OUTS

THAT WOULD LET DAL RUN IT UP

BUT WAS SHOULD SCORE TOO

RG3 MAY HAVE TO COME IN TO REPLACE MCCOY

BEST GUESS

 DAL BY 10 OVER 49.5

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NFL PICKS WEEK 8 2014

 _______POSTGAME_______
3-2
 KC At Home -7 vs STL (KC 34-7)

Called 3 and Out and a Route - It was

HOU -3 At TEN (HOU 30-16)
Predicted Disaster for Rookie QB and TEN - it was.

IND -3 At PIT (PIT 51-34)

 Who knew the Colts Defense Would Miss the Plane

THURSDAY
 @DEN - 9 VS SD Under (51.5)

DEN penalties extended Failed Red Zone Attempts by SD. 
Otherwise - Match Up Called Game Perfectly.

Most Proud of Traps we Avoided
Stayed OFF Several Games that Looked Like "Sure Things"
That's why we only had 3 Picks and The Rest were Leaning. 
OFF DET
OFF GB
OFF BAL
OFF SEA
None of Those 4 Teams Covered.

 _______PREGAME_______

NOT AN EASY WEEK

 BUT 3 SOLID PICKS

 THIS WEEKS PICKS

KC At Home -7 vs STL

HOU -3 At TEN

IND -3 At PIT 

EARLY GAME MATCHUPS
http://happycapper.com/2014WK8EARLY.htmL 

LATE GAME MATCHUPS

http://happycapper.com/2014WK8LATE.htmL

OFF THE RECORD 
LEANING?
MIN +2.5 @ TB
BAL +1 @ CIN
GB +2 @ NO

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NFL PICKS WEEK 8 THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP 2014

________POSTGAME________

Wow, the Matchup called that game Perfectly. 
It was like having a Crystal Ball.
DEN dominates Def Line (Accurate)
DEN  78 % in Red Zone (Accurate)
DEN 3.5 Sacks (Accurate)
Both Teams Drives Started Inside Own 30 (Accurate)
Total only (21) at Halftime = Under (Accurate) 

Only problem was Penalties by Denver.
SD Offense Projected 53% in Red Zone. (Accurate)
Penalties by DEN extended (Three) Red Zone Drives.
Making SD 100% in Red Zone. 
One of those Penalties came after a 4th down fail by SD in the RZ. 
+7 SD.
DEN 35-21 (56) 4.5 Over
Without that - we Hit the Cover and the Under. 
(WON) DEN to Cover (LOST) Under
1-1. 
Good Start.
The Matchups are Working.

 ________PREGAME________

@DEN - 9 VS SD (51.5)

TAKING DEN -9 AND THE UNDER 

 CASE FOR DENVER

DEN WEAKNESS RUSH OFF - BUT SD EVEN WORSE

DEN DEF LINE AND RUSH DEF WILL DOMINATE

DEN AVG 3.5 SACKS PER GAME

BAD FOR RIVERS WITH NO RUN GAME

DEN OFFENSE PROJECTED 78% IN RED ZONE.
DEN DESTROYED SF AND A GOOD JETS DEFENSE
SD LOST TO KC AND BARELY SURVIVED OAK
DEN BEST TEAM IN FOOTBALL AT THIS POINT
(DEN BY 10)

CASE FOR UNDER

BOTH TEAMS HAVE GOOD FIELD POSITION DEFENSES
BOTH BAD FIELD POSITION OFFENSES
SO - BOTH SHOULD START THEIR DRIVES INSIDE OWN 30
BOTH TEAMS EXCELLENT DEFENSES.
(UNDER 51.5)

VIEW FULL MATCHUP
http://happycapper.com/2014WK8EARLY.htmL

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NFL PICKS WEEK 7 MONDAY NIGHT 2014

 __________PostGame_________

I Said it could go either way.
It Did. 
Texans Defeated Houston
NOT A TYPO
23-30


__________PreGame_________

@PIT -3 vs HOU (45)

OFF THIS GAME

I THOUGHT ABOUT PICKING BOTH SIDES OF THIS GAME

 TO TRY TO GET TO 50% FOR THE WEEK

2-4 FOR THE WEEK

NOT GONNA DO IT

WAY TO TOUGH

BUT

HERE IS THE MATCHUP, NOTES AND MY BEST GUESS 

CLICK LINK BELOW TO VIEW MATCHUP - GAME AT BOTTOM

http://happycapper.com/2014WK7LATE.htmL

CASE FOR STEELERS

THE PIT OFFENSE (STATISTICALLY ) SHOULD DOMINATE

THE DL, RD, AND PD OF HOU IS AN AVG OF 24TH

THEY ARE AT HOME ON TURF - SHOWERS EXPECTED

LOVE BLUNT AND BELL VS WEAK HOU RUSH DEF

RB BELL AND WR BROWN AVG NEARLY 100 PER GAME

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE IS 28TH 

CASE FOR TEXANS

PIT OFFENSE IS ONLY 37% IN RED ZONE

HOU RED ZONE DEFENSE ONLY ALLOWS 41% TDs. 

PIT LAST 2 OPPONENTS WERE WEAK - JAC / CLE.

HOU LAST 2 WERE DAL AND IND AND PLAYED THEM CLOSE

HOU OFF LINE AND RUSH OFF ARE TOP 10

PIT DEFENSE LOOKED SLOW TO ME IN GAME FILM

FOSTER IS BREAKING LONG RUNS THAT HELP FITZ AT QB

PIT DEFENSE IS BANGED UP

BEST GUESS

THIS ONE COULD REALLY GO EITHER WAY

PIT COULD GET HOT AT HOME.

BUT - THEY HAVE BEEN COLD.

PIT BAD IN RED ZONE AND WATT A FACTOR

WHEN IN DOUBT - TAKE THE POINTS

NIGHT NETWORK GAMES HAVE BEEN GOING OVER

WEATHER IS ONLY SHOWERS NOT A DELUGE.
HOU ENDED THE GAME HOT VS IND SCORED 28 THAT GAME
BALL CARRIERS HAVE AND ADVANTAGE IN RAIN
THEY NOW WHICH WAY THEY ARE GOING TO CUT.

PROJECTED

PIT 26 HOU 24

HOU + 3 OVER (45)

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NFL PICKS WEEK 7 2014

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For Game Updates and Comments:
 https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip

________POSTGAME________ 

  Hardest Part of Losing for Me.
Letting you guys down. 
I only bet what I can afford to lose. 
So, I do not get upset over personal losses.
But you depend on me for good picks. 
I HATE NOT HELPING YOU WIN!
So as always, I will do my best to make up for it next week. 

SEASON TOTAL 
31-19 62%
 WE CAN DO BETTER AND WE WILL!

Please Remember
The Purpose of HappyCapper.com
Provide the Best Data in the World for Every Game.
We Win at That Every Week. 
I am Not a Guru.
Review the Match Ups!
Use Our Data and You Make the Call!
 
Rough Week But:
Enough Games now for Stats and Scoring to Kick In.
We have an idea who Everyone is now. 
Now We Make some Money.
Looking forward to Next Week. 

Rough Start with the Earl Parlay.
2-1 Afternoon Parlay
We Did Call Jaguars First win! 
Called the Vikings to Cover.  
Called Raiders Upset - Just missed that by Seconds

REPORT CARD
GB IS THAT GOOD
CAR IS THAT BAD
BAL - IS THAT GOOD
 ATL - IS THAT BAD 
SEA - ISN'T THAT GOOD
STL - ISN'T THAT BAD 
NO - ISN'T THAT BAD
DET - ISN'T THAT GOOD
CLE - ISN'T THAT GOOD
JAC - ISN'T THAT BAD 
MIA -  ISN'T THAT BAD 
CHI - ISN'T THAT GOOD
CIN ISN'T THAT GOOD
IND IS THAT GOOD

  ________PREGAME________

REVERSALS OF FORTUNE?
JUST HAVE A FEELING
WE WILL ALL BE SAYING
WOW! THEY AREN'T THAT GOOD
AND 
WOW! THEY AREN'T THAT BAD

 VIEW EARLY MATCHUPS
http://happycapper.com/2014WK7EARLY.htmL
EARLY PARLAY
CHI -3
SEA -6.5
CAR+6.5

VIEW LATE MATCHUPS
http://happycapper.com/2014WK7LATE.htmL
LATE PARLAY
KC+4
OAK +3.5
DEN -6.5  

OFF THE RECORD
MONEYLINE
JAC
MIN
NYG
HOU

NFL PICKS WEEK 7 THURSDAY NIGHT 2014

Follow us on Twitter:
 https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip

Predicted Jets Red Zone Failure.
But:
NE Gave Geno all the Time in the world.
Pats Didn't Blitz or Stop the Run. 
Total Fail Defensively
Pats Defensive Coordinator Blew It. 
Period

GIVE IVORY AND GENO CREDIT
THEY PLAYED WELL.

________PREGAME_________ 

@NE -9.5 VS NYJ (45) 

VIEW FULL MATCH UP

 http://happycapper.com/2014WK7EARLY.htmL

OFF THIS GAME

DOESN'T COUNT TOWARD OUR SEASON TOTAL WIN OR LOSE

BUT LEANING ONE WAY

CASE FOR JETS 

HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED IN NEW ENGLAND.

RIDLEY IS OUT FOR PATS  - JETS GOOD DEF LINE AND RUSH DEF

JETS COULD CONTAIN VEREEN 

RB CHRIS IVORY IS A SERIOUS THREAT

JETS ALSO HAVE 3.2 SACKS PER GAME

BRADY DOES NOT LIKE PRESSURE 

COULD KEEP PATS FROM COVERING.

 CASE FOR PATS

PATS ARE HOME AND USED TO BAD WEATHER

I'M HOPING PATS ADJUST TO LACK OF RUN GAME

THEY CAN WITH SHORT PASSES - IF THEY'RE SMART?

THE JETS PASS DEF IS 22ND

THE PATS PASS DEF IS 3RD

THIS SHOULD CREATE 3 AND OUTS BY GENO

THAT WOULD ALLOW PATS TO COVER? 
PATS WON BY 15 VS GOOD BUF DEF @ BUF.  

 OVER / UNDER

PATS SHOULD SCORE IN RED ZONE
JETS SHOULD NOT
LOOKING FOR HEAVY RAIN & GOOD NYJ DEFENSE TO KEEP IT UNDER? 
CAUTION
 WEATHER CAN CHANGE? 
JETS DEFENSE COULD GET TIRED AFTER 3 AND OUTS
ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR A BLOW OUT BY PATS = OVER 
BOTH TEAMS HAVE GOOD PUNTERS

BEST GUESS

PATS BY 10

UNDER (45)

PROJECTED 

 NE 24-13

THIS WEEKS GAMES

 ALL OTHER MATCH UPS AND PICKS UP BY SAT NOON

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NFL PICKS WEEK 6 MONDAY NIGHT

WINNING!

Projected 28-17
31-17 Works for Me!
Yeah, we got a Pick 6 to cover
But we also got robbed of 7 earlier,
When SF Choked from inside the Ram's10.
I credit the system for a Good Matchup Data. 
It called the 3 and Outs by STL we saw in the 2nd half
Also, warned us SF was only 46% in Red Zone.
Made it an educated guess. Cant ask for more than that. 

PARLAY PICKS 9-1 THIS WEEK!


_________PREGAME_________
 
I'M OFF THIS GAME

BUT HAVE SOME GOOD MATCH UP NOTES

STL +3.5

MY ORIGINAL GUESS ON THIS GAME WAS STL +3.5

COULD STILL HAPPEN

KAP NEVER LEARNED HOW TO THROW A FOOTBALL.  

THE NINER'S OFFENSE IS ALSO JUST 44 % IN THE RED ZONE.

THE SF RED ZONE DEF ALLOWS 60%

THEY HAD A VERY LONG ROAD TRIP CROSS COUNTRY. 

FISHER IS A SMART COACH

RAMS ARE AT HOME IN A NETWORK GAME = +3? 
SF ONLY COVERED THE LAST 2 GAMES BY 5 OR 6 (AT HOME) 

GIVEN THOSE FACTORS - THE +3.5 HOOK COULD BE A GIFT.  

SF - 3.5

ON THE OTHER HAND.

THE STL DEF LINE AND RUSH DEF IS NEAR LAST. 

THEY FACE THE 8TH RATED SF RUSH OFFENSE

THAT COULD TAKE THE PRESSURE OFF KAP.

IT COULD ALSO ALLOW HIM TO SHRED THEM WITH HIS LEGS. 

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BALL:

SF IS TOP 10 IN DEF LINE / RUSH DEF AND PASS DEF.

STL IS ABOUT 20TH IN OFF LINE / RUSH OFF AND PASS OFF. 

BEST GUESS

SF RUNS ON RAMS AND SETS UP PASS AND QB RUNS FOR KAP

THE SF DEFENSE FORCES 3 AND OUTS

THIS ALLOWS SF TO COVER EASY = 28?.

NIGHT GAMES HAVE BEEN GOING OVER

THE RAMS HAVE TALENT ON OFFENSE = 17?

PROJECTED 

SF 28-17

 OVER (44)

VIEW FULL MATCHUP

TONIGHT'S GAME AT THE BOTTOM OF LINK BELOW

http://happycapper.com/2014WK6LATE.htmL

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NFL PICKS WEEK 6 2014

_________WEEK 6 RESULTS________ 
7-1 88%
Parlay Picks 9-1
 

I ORIGINALLY POSTED THE DOG PICKS WITH THE LEANERS.
WHEN I MADE THE FINAL PARLAYS THEY BECAME PICKS.
BUT DID POST THEM AS THE 2ND PARLAY - HOPE YOU HIT THEM!
 POSTING THE MATCHUP FOR TONIGHT IN A MOMENT. 

SEASON TOTAL 
29-15 
66%

_________POSTGAME________ 
 HUGE WIN!
PARLAYS 7-1

DOG TICKET 4-0
$40- TO WIN $560

TOP PICKS 2-1

TODAY'S PLAY BY PLAYS MOVED TO
 http://nflplaybyplay.blogspot.com/

 HIT GOLF TOO 

http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/

_________PREGAME________

THIS WEEK IS FULL OF LAND MINES

TON OF GAMES COULD GO EITHER WAY.
MAJOR INJURIES FACTOR THIS WEEK TOO. 

STAY OFF OR TAKE POINTS ON MOST. 

IF YOU'RE NOT SURE - BOOK WINS.

AT THE SAME TIME:

SOME GOOD DOGS AND MONEYLINE OPPORTUNITIES. 

   TOP PICKS

DEN - 9.5  @ JETS

@SEA - 8 VS DAL

@ ARI - 3 VS WAS

VIEW ALL MATCHUPS!
EARLY GAMES
 http://happycapper.com/2014WK6EARLY.htmL
LATE GAMES

http://happycapper.com/2014WK6LATE.htmL

DOG PICKS
JAC+4
CHI+3
CAR+6.5
OAK+7

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