PARODY - THE SPORTSBOOKS BEST FRIEND

THE BOOKS
The books do not have to predict the outcome of a game. They just need to stack the odds against us doing it. Their biggest concern is not getting sided. Too much money bet on one winning Team or Total. Sportsbooks are like mutual fund managers. They are not trying to find the next Google - just make a modest gain each week. If we can't get a handle on who should win - they win. They love Parody.

THE CAPPER
Our job as handicappers is a little harder. We do have to predict who will win and by how much. 
That is usually not that hard early in the season. Why? Because teams are still unproven - so the spreads are not as big as later in the year. At the same time - statistical data is somewhat worthless when based on only 3 or 4 games. Keep in mind - only by Monday night - had all 32 teams played just 4 games. 

PARODY
There is nothing easier or more rewarding that seeing an obvious mismatch and cashing in on it. For instance - we all thought "That was easy." when the Colts trampled Jacksonville. Not many of those obvious winners this year. One week Atlanta looks like an offensive powerhouse and Tampa is done for the year. The next week the hapless Vikings beat the Falcons and the Bucs beat the Steeler's at home. We were on the right side of those games - but are record is far from perfect - 60%. Parody is alive and well in the NFL this year. Perhaps healthier than ever. 

PRETENDERS AND CONTENDERS
That really is the name of the game. Telling them apart. Stats and projected totals will play a big part in that after week 6 or 7. Once you know who should win, it's all about the spread. In the meantime, it's about surviving. If you can pick 6 good teams and 4 win - you are up 2 - Winning!  I bet parlays - which is an amateur move - but even with that strategy - its about hedging my odds. 2 team on Thursday, 3 team morning games, 3 team afternoon, 2 team on Monday. My budget is $160 per week - 1 win and I'm up. Single bets are always the better strategy though. 

USING PARODY TO YOUR ADVANTAGE
If you look at a game and think the Favorite is Not that Good and the Dog is Not that bad - Take the Points! This can also present opportunities for a Money Line win. Breaking even, modest profit, not that exciting right? A sportsbook manager gave me a piece of advice that can make it a little more interesting. Do your serious bets and then pick one 2 or 3 team Moneyline parlay for $20. Last week I had a $20 - 3 team money line that would have paid $1300 - TB, BUF and HOU. All 3 were tied with under 2 minutes to go. Again, taking the points or a single moneyline bets is always a better strategy. But an NFL lotto ticket can spice it up each week. 

TEASING
This is a very conservative, but very effective strategy. Not sure about the spread? Change it. It wont pay as much, but your odds of winning are much higher. My pool guy showed me 3 winning tickets last week. Most of those bets would have been losers - if he hadn't teased the spread. He did, and won all 3 parlays.

WEEK 6
There are 15 games this week. If you can pick 4 out of 6 winners - mission accomplished. The stats will start to kick in a little this week. View each of our Match ups online and pick some winners. 

Thursday Matchup - Posted by 12 Noon on Thursday
All Other Games - Posted by Noon on Saturday.

I may not be a big gambler, but make no mistake, I am very serious about winning. 
My goal is to stay above 75% like in 2011 and 2012. Then sell this thing to the highest bidder. Then, and only then, can I go outside on Sunday and throw footballs at people -rather than watching other people do it TV.

BE CAREFUL
With nearly 20 hours of Football on TV each week, don't forget to go outside and Play 60. They're putting Bacon in our pizza crust now. I think the NFL may be trying to kill us. 

-Rick Jansen