Note: Next year as part of our service - our team will search out and post the best early lines available. We will post the Online and Vegas books offering each line. As you can see - the line moves can be enormous and create a great advantage for our clients. Early lines can be risky prior to injury reports. However, unlike this yr - next yr my team will have every game capped by Tuesday - so they will be less risky.
(Update) Reid Report:
Seattle had nothing to gain by winning last week or this week. I don't
understand why the opening line had Seattle -1.5. It is now AZ -7 !
Bruce Arians said he will rest no one Sun and try to win in case
Carolina loses again. NFL moved Carolina game from 1:00 to 4:25 so AZ
won't rest their starters
WEEK 17 BANK BETS
EARLY LINE PICKS 12/27
*STL-2.5 @SF
*NE-3.5 @MIA
*@ARI+2.5 vs SEA
ADDED 12/31
@NYG-3 vs PHI
@DEN-9 vs SD
*(Early lines posted 12/27on link below)
BANK RECEIPT
Early Lines Posted 12/27 On:
http://www.footballlocks.com/early_nfl_point_spreads.shtml
Note: the lines are gone now - screenshot below
2 WINNING PARLAYS!
Like I said a few weeks ago -all or nothing thinking does not work. Teasers saved our week.
WAS+10 @PHI
OAK+1.5
OAK-SD UNDER 53.5
CIN+10.5 @DEN (covered ATS straight up)
UNDER 48
Not the week I was looking for - But - I made you money and that's All I care about. My buddy who manages the book just shook his head about the CAR, NE, and PIT losses. The books cleaned up.
BANK STATEMENT
LATE ADDITION!
PIT-10 @BAL (47)
Projected PIT 32-16
BAL Rush Def 30th vs Hot PIT Pass Off. BAL Rush Off 30th vs #3 Def Line and Rush Def. Mallett will be behind early and pressured to pass. PIT (3 Saks per game) will Tee Off on him. 3 and Outs by BAL = Rout by PIT. BAL T/O Ratio -14, PIT +4.
Post
I was wrong - Mallett did spark them. But it should not have mattered. PIT dominated that match up. Once again Todd Haley lost it for the Steelers. His play calling cost them the game.
HEAD TO HEAD
SATURDAY
WAS+3.5 @PHI (41)
Projected WAS 28-20
Our 7 Point Teaser Ticket (From Thursday)
WAS+10 @PHI
OAK+1.5
OAK-SD UNDER 53.5
Well. WAS turned out to be a system pick. We already have them on a 3 Team 7 Point Teaser with OAK and the UND on that game. So, as you know - we are in the 3rd leg of that 3 leg ticket. Go Redskins! The Skins have not played yet - so I just added that small ticket to the bank. It is a Teaser - so if it hits - it only counts as one win - same with the Monday Night Teaser (Below).
FINAL WAS 38-24
WINNING TICKET!
_________________________________
DON'T FORGET - WE STILL HAVE EARLY LINE PICKS
SUNDAY
NE-3 @NYJ (WillHill) Note: Early Pick prior - Injury Report. NE Stars out on Off and Def.
CAR-7 @ATL (WillHill)
STL+14.5 @SEA (5Dimes)
NO MATCH ON EARLY LINE PICKS
Post
NE the danger with early lines is no Injury Report. 3 starters out on OFF and DEF for Pays. They still should have covered - but - Belichick's ego forgot he had 3 starts out on DEF. They won the Toss in OT - if they receive - they most likely win and cover.
Post
CAR My little sister is a lifelong Panthers fan. I think we all lost out on something special. Falcons not the better team - but - a perfect storm kept CAR a perfect season.
Post
STL What I tell you bout Case Keenum? God that was fun!
MONDAY NIGHT
CIN+3.5 @DEN (41) (MGM)
Projected CIN 20-17
I'm buying this now with CIN at +3.5 In case it drops to +3. That teases out to CIN +10.5 and the over to (51). Defense Dominates this Match Up - But - the Under is factored at (41) which is why I am making it a 2 team 7 point Teaser. Plus I love CIN +10.5.
Our 7 Point Teaser Ticket
CIN+10.5 @DEN UNDER (48) (CORRECTED)
FINAL DEN 20-17 (37)
WINNING TICKET!
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
@OAK-5.5 vs SD (46.5)
Projected OAK 17-16 (33)
(OFF)
OAK could blow them out - but 3 WR hurting. See Match up for more details
HEAD TO HEAD
(THU/SAT) TEASER
7 POINT TEASE
OAK +1.5
OAK UNDER 53.5
WAS +10
X
OFFICIAL BANK BETS
NE-3 @NYJ (WillHill)
CAR-7 @ATL (WillHill)
STL+14.5 @SEA (5Dimes)
BANK RECEIPT
Thursday Match Up will be Posted by Noon Thursday
All Others by Friday (Xmas day) 5pm
x
ARI-3.5 @PHI
WINNER
Projected ARI 42-17
Final ARI 40 -17
@NE-14 vs TEN
WINNER
Total Domination as predicted - but lead shrank at the end.
Lucky Belichick decided to kick a meaningless FG at the end to cover though.
NYJ-3 @DAL
Push - Missed a Win by a missed extra point
CAR-4 @NYG
Lost by 1 Point
CAR gave up a 21 point lead in the 4th.
BUF-PK @WAS
Loss - Just a bad pick on my part.
Bad Coaching killing that team - I knew that last week.
That wasn't gonna change in a week.
(RICK PICK) RAMS-2.5
WINNER
I won with the Rams and did not bet the bank on them -STL much better pick than the Bills.
But - hindsight is always 20-20.
NO-2.5 vs DET with Over (51.5)
Win / Loss - Over was Easy Money - killed ticket adding Saints at the last minute.
System did its job - Lions won the Match up.
4-2?
As you can see (above). Even with 2 bad calls on my part - we should have be 4-2 this week.
Reid Report
Reid; "Vegas Books lost 4 million this weekend".
One weekend the books clean up the next they get hammered. The top Handicappers in the world are between 55 and 61% right now. Proof once again - we are surviving an insanely hard season. See for yourself:
Click on a name to see their record for the year.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/
No - we are not on there - we did not signup. Maybe next year.
In The Hunt
43-39 52.4%
53 Games Left
Only 11 or so NFL teams have a winning record. Only about a few dozen Pro handicappers (charging for picks) are above break even (52.8) as well. So, if we were an NFL Team - we would be in the hunt for the playoffs - with 53 games left - we could still win our division? I guess our division would be guys with No Staff, Handicapping part time from their bedroom after work. LOL. I can't wait to hire a crew next year and crush picks every week.
Parlays vs Straight Bets
If we placed only single straight bets all season - the bank would only be down about $17.
Right now we are down about $250. So, you may see a few parlays here and there this year - just playing catch up. I will not spend the first 5 weeks next year - figuring out betting strategy - it wilt be straight bets only.
Paying to Play
My business partner (at my real job) and seasoned Vegas veteran made a point. He said that a lot of people would be glad to pay to play all year and break even - just for the entertainment value. That was nice to hear and probably true. Just know that I will never accept that as our goal.
2 Minute Drill
With all we've learned this year and with a full staff in 2016 - it's unlikely we will be scrambling to make 60% this time next year. We worked real hard all season. The important thing is that we end with a winning season. I'm crunching the numbers on 60% right now - which would tie our worst season ever. I would have to go 4-0 or 6-2 the next 2 weeks - it could happen - but not a realistic game plan. If you're going to pay me $40 a month to make you money next year - I need to make that my goal now as well - not let my ego get in the way. If I get reckless betting too many games - trying to get to 60% with 53 games left - that would be foolish.
Measuring Success
The Bank
With 2 regular season weeks left - I have to be careful to see who plays and who sits. I'm not too worried about the bank balance. If you are grading us for next year - like I say - the bank would only be down about $17 and a few good weeks will get the bank back up over $1000.
The Record
What I care about most is our Win / Loss record. That's what people will look at the most.
You have to get to 52.8 to show a profit - we are at 52.4 now. I will not be happy with even 55% though - neither will you. I mentioned previously that "All or Nothing Thinking" doesn't work in life or gambling - so here is my plan. There are just not enough games left to shoot for 60% without getting reckless. Here is what I "am" confident I "can" do - and it would take us to over 58% on the year.
WEEK 16
4-2
WEEK 17
4-2
WILD CARD PLAY OFFS
6-2
DIVISIONAL PLAY OFFS
6-2
CONFERENCE PLAY OFF
3-1
SUPERBOWL
1-0
67 - 48 58%
That should still
place us about top 10 in the world vs the NFL spread. At the beginning
of the year - the experts said 60% was impossible - so 58% should be
considered a very good year.
I will also have to look at the match ups and may pick a week with just 4 games one week if needed. One thing we did learn this year - was not to be too rigid. I have to take it one week at a time, one game at a time. I will update our progress each week through the playoffs.
We got this!
BANK SUMMARY
POSTGAME_______________
Half Right
Around 3pm yesterday I posted a pick of Just The Over. That was easy money. Adding the Saints at the last minute went against the match up and was stupid.
Good Risk Reward
At the same time - it was low risk high reward. Saints were flat as hell thru 3 quarters. They dropped or had like 6 TDs called back. So. we came much closer to calling both sides than the final score reflects. We did not hurt the record 1-1 and only lost $50 looking to win $130. So, not beating my self up too bad. The big mistake here was missing out on a strong Over bet. Every lesson learned this year is money in the bank next year. Note to Rick - Take the Easy Money.
PREGAME_______________
@NO-2.5 vs DET (51.5)
Projected NO 31-28 (OT) (59)
BANK BET
2 TEAM PARLAY
NO-2.5 W/ OVER (51.5)
Going out on a limb a little - but not much. This is far from a system pick - but - I like Saints at home and the Over. DET 1-5 on the Road going into the dome with a -9 T/O Ratio. Lions win Pass Off big - but Saints do not lose on Pass Off and it is Brees at home. New Orleans put up 38 vs Carolina. Lions allowed 21 vs Rams. DET projected at 87% in the Red Zone - NO projected at 71% in the Red Zone but Saints better big play potential.
This is somewhat Risky gut pick - but Saints and the Over would not suprise anyone - so I'll take a shot.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
x
POSTGAME______________
ARI 40-17
WINNER!
PREGAME______________
PICK OF THE WEEK
ARI -3.5 @PHI
Projected ARI 42-17
Everyone including the experts are jumping on the Eagles bandwagon. This team was in shambles a few weeks ago. 3 lucky special team mistakes by New England got them a victory vs the Pats. Last week the Bills literally beat themselves. They only rushed 3 and played 12 yds off the receivers - that made Bradford look like Brady. He isn't even the same species. I see no reason to believe the Eagles have fixed anything.
I fully expect Bradford to look like a deer in he headlights vs this Cardinals defense. That will produce 3 and outs and a route for a high scoring ARI offense.
"They are who we thought they were and it will show vs Arizona."
HEAD TO HEAD
PENDING SUNDAY PICKS
ARI -3.5 @PHI
CAR-4 @NYG
BUF(PK) @WAS
@NE-14 vs TEN
X
POSTGAME______________
Well, that's twice this month that we lost a win by a missed extra point. No loss - push - but Jets played like drunken Buffoons. People were tweeting - "Are they trying to lose?. They did fail to even try to score inside the Dallas 30 with 3 time outs and 49 seconds left. They did nothing but set up a FG for a kicker who already missed 2 kicks. Did that with :30 left in the 4th. That left time for 5 plays by Dallas only needing a FG to tie.
I've heard people over the last few weeks say they think the NFL is fixed, they quit betting and quit watching. That is bad for the game and for the sportsbooks for that matter. It's the end of the world as we know it - and I feel fine. Guess I'm used to it now.
You have to have a thick skin and stay positive. You never know, an influenza outbreak could hit the Giants locker room. A mutiny could break out against Chip Kelly in Philadelphia. A lot of good things can still happen for us this weekend. "On to Sunday."
PREGAME_______________
NYJ-3 @DAL (41.5)
PROJECTED
NYJ 35 DAL 9 (44)
BANK PICK JETS
It almost seems too easy - but Jets dominate the Match Up and are only giving 3. Big day for Ivory, long day for Cassell.
PARLAY LOVERS
(2 TEAM NO TEASE)
ARI -3.5 @PHI
NYJ -3.5 @DAL
FINAL BANK PICKS FOR THE WEEK
EARLY LINE PICKS
(8:29 AM Tue 12/15/15)
ARI-3.5 @PHI (Anywhere)
CAR-4 @NYG (Wynn) (CAR-TE Olsen Prob) (RB Stewart Out)
Note: Got a good line early - but caution - Stewart was only ? when we bet CAR.
BUF(PK) @WAS (Stations)
NOTE: Early Line Picks placed prior to match ups - no match ups posted
PICKS ADDED SATURDAY
NYJ-3 @DAL
@NE-14 vs TEN
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
OFF GAME NOTES
MIA @SD-2
Projected MIA 20-17 OT
SD wins on Pass Off - but Stevie Johnson is out. I like Campbell has his team fired up - I like them by FG in OT.
HOU @IND-2
(?)
I like Whitehurst if he starts, and although Yates has played well - he was one of the worst back ups in the league. HOU wins the Match Up Big! But I like IND at home. (OFF)
@NO-2 vs DET
Projected DET 27-24
I like Saints at home - but the Match Up does not - Lions projected at 87% TDs in the Red Zone and a weak Saints Pass Off may let them get there enough to win?
X
Post_______________________________
I could not ask for much more. My boy Case redeemed himself and I win a $50 ticket. I would have liked to have given us a win for the bank - but - At the same time - the match up was dead on. If you watched - the Bucs were 1 TD away from killing the cover. Here's what the match up predicted:
1. TB would shut down the Rams Run Game. (Gurely had less than 50 yds rushing)
2. Rams Rush Defense Ranked 26th. (Bucs Ran on them at will.)
Only a stellar performance by the Rams secondary kept TB out of the Red Zone - where they were projected to score a TD 69% of the time.
A dazzling performance by Austin saved the game. Keenum played solid - but - without Austin's 2 TDs - the Rams lose and fail to cover. So, as much as I wish we had bet the Rams for the bank - calling off was the safe move.
_________________________
@STL-2.5 vs TB
Projected STL 27-14
(OFF)
I like Keenum in this situation, at home, vs a beat up Bucs defense. But I'm a Keenum Fan and to be realistic - Rams main weapon is Gurley. Bucs strength is Rush Def (9th). Multiple injuries on the Bucs Def Line and at MLB could make open up the run for the Rams. But - STL has a very weak Rush Defense (26th) vs a Running QB and a good RB in Doug Martin.
I like the Rams giving less than 3 - but would be breaking all the rules if I bet them with bank money - they do not qualify as a pick in the match up - Rams lose on Rush Off, Pass Off and Red Zone Def.
I'll have $50 on Keenum to save his career on a Network Night Game at Home. But hoping and Predicting are 2 different things. I believe in the kid though. Predicted years ago he would become a top 10 NFL QB. This may be his last chance tonight. These rookies are not groomed anymore - just thrown off the cliff and expected to fly. I hope he earns his wings tonight.
Go Case!
HEAD TO HEAD
X
Making a couple early picks before the lines move against us.
BANK BETS
(8:29 AM Tue 12/15/15)
ARI-3.5 @ PHI (Anywhere)
CAR-4 @NYG (Wynn) (CAR-TE Olsen Prob)
BUF(PK) @ WAS (Stations)
BANK RECEIPT
JUST FOR FUN - MONEYLINE
DEN VS PIT
CHI VS MIN
ATL VS JAC
POST__________
We would have won if I stayed on Giants - but it did get real close.
___________________________
NYG PK @ MIA
(OFF)
Giants win pass offense big. NYG defense has some injuries but MIA loses Rush Offense and top receiver is out. They do not project well in Red Zone - But - have big play potential outside the 20. Jonas Gray was cut again by MIA - if Giants key on Lamar Miller - they can shut down a one denominational attack. I like the Giants here with something to prove - coming off 2 loses on a network night game.
However, I just remembered how hard the Dolphins are playing for Campbell and had 2nd thoughts. Home Night game for MIA and Giants have been playing like crap. (OFF)
HEAD TO HEAD
5 Team Teaser Hit (All Covered ATS - Straight Up!)
IF IT WERE AN ATS MONEYLINE (WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE)
Good week that should have been a great week. I'm not referring to what could have been with a moneyline - but the other bets we did make.
No
last second strip or we hit with MIN.
Won 2 legs of 3 and were a play away from covering the 3rd.
Really bad coaching or BUF wins
easy too. Lost by 2 points.
Bills playing 10 yards off receivers and only rushing 3 made Bradford look like Brady. Long, low percentage passes on 3rd and short killed 5 scoring drives. The Offensive and Defensive coordinators should be fired in Buffalo. This is arguably the 2nd most talented team in the NFL. They will watch the playoffs at home because of bad coaching. Those great young players deserve so much more.
Those 2 hit the Bank is at a nice profit this week without the teaser win
In an effort to provide insight and into our methods - I can make the mistake of sharing more information than is really needed. I can talk to much sometimes. When we started - just doing in dept Head to Head match ups was enough to win consistently. By week 5 or 6 you had teams you could count on to cover. Parody has changed the league so much - I have to constantly adjust and rethink our strategy on a weekly basis. So in a few words - that kind of is the key...
Teasers do make sense sometimes - I think that is something I learned this year - there is no hard and fast rule for every situation. Black and white thinking in life and betting rarely works. I have to weigh each week case by case as far as betting strategy.
Learned a lot this year already. We've come a long way from 4 team money-lines to 2 team spread parlays that win or lose by half a point. There are like 50 games left - so we still have a solid shot at achieving that "so-called" impossible 60% and showing a profit for the bank. Feeling good!
WEEK 14 BANK STATEMENT
