NFL PICKS WEEK 15 RECAP

ARI-3.5 @PHI
WINNER
Projected ARI 42-17
Final ARI 40 -17

@NE-14 vs TEN
WINNER
Total Domination as predicted - but lead shrank at the end.
Lucky Belichick decided to kick a meaningless FG at the end to cover though.

NYJ-3 @DAL
Push - Missed a Win by a missed extra point

CAR-4 @NYG
Lost by 1 Point
CAR gave up a 21 point lead in the 4th.
 
BUF-PK @WAS
Loss - Just a bad pick on my part.
Bad Coaching killing that team - I knew that last week. 
That wasn't gonna change in a week.

(RICK PICK) RAMS-2.5
WINNER 
I won with the Rams and did not bet the bank on them -STL much better pick than the Bills.
But - hindsight is always 20-20.

NO-2.5 vs DET with Over (51.5)
Win / Loss - Over was Easy Money - killed ticket adding Saints at the last minute.
System did its job - Lions won the Match up.  

4-2?
As you can see (above). Even with 2 bad calls on my part - we should have be 4-2 this week.

Reid Report
Reid; "Vegas Books lost 4 million this weekend". 
One weekend the books clean up the next they get hammered. The top Handicappers in the world are between 55 and 61% right now. Proof once again - we are surviving an insanely hard season. See for yourself:

Click on a name to see their record for the year. 
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/
No - we are not on there - we did not signup. Maybe next year.

In The Hunt
43-39 52.4%  
53 Games Left
Only 11 or so NFL teams have a winning record. Only about a few dozen Pro handicappers (charging for picks) are above break even (52.8) as well.  So, if we were an NFL Team - we would be in the hunt for the playoffs - with 53 games left - we could still win our  division?  I guess our division would be guys with No Staff, Handicapping part time from their bedroom after work. LOL.  I can't wait to hire a crew next year and crush picks every week.

Parlays vs Straight Bets
If we placed only single straight bets all season - the bank would only be down about $17.
Right now we are down about $250.  So, you may see a few parlays here and there this year - just playing catch up. I will not spend the first 5 weeks next year - figuring out betting strategy - it wilt be straight bets only.

Paying to Play
My business partner (at my real job) and seasoned Vegas veteran made a point. He said that a lot of people would be glad to pay to play all year and break even - just for the entertainment value. That was nice to hear and probably true. Just know that I will never accept that as our goal.

2 Minute Drill  
With all we've learned this year and with a full staff in 2016 - it's unlikely we will be scrambling to make 60% this time next year. We worked real hard all season. The important thing is that we end with a winning season. I'm crunching the numbers on 60% right now - which would tie our worst season ever. I would have to go 4-0 or 6-2 the next 2 weeks - it could happen - but not a realistic game plan. If you're going to pay me $40 a month to make you money next year - I need to make that my goal now as well - not let my ego get in the way. If I get reckless betting too many games - trying to get to 60% with 53 games left - that would be foolish.

Measuring Success

The Bank
With 2 regular season weeks left - I have to be careful to see who plays and who sits. I'm not too worried about the bank balance. If you are grading us for next year - like I say - the bank would only be down about $17 and a few good weeks will get the bank back up over $1000. 

The Record 
What I care about most is our Win / Loss record. That's what people will look at the most.  
You have to get to 52.8 to show a profit - we are at 52.4 now.  I will not be happy with even 55% though - neither will you.  I mentioned previously that "All or Nothing Thinking" doesn't work in life or gambling - so here is my plan.  There are just not enough games left to shoot for 60% without getting reckless. Here is what I "am" confident I "can" do - and it would take us to over 58% on the year.

WEEK 16
4-2
WEEK 17
4-2
WILD CARD PLAY OFFS
6-2
DIVISIONAL PLAY OFFS
6-2
CONFERENCE PLAY OFF
3-1
SUPERBOWL
1-0

67 - 48 58%

That should still place us about top 10 in the world vs the NFL spread. At the beginning of the year - the experts said 60% was impossible - so 58% should be considered a very good year.  
I will also have to look at the match ups and may pick a week with just 4 games one week if needed. One thing we did learn this year - was not to be too rigid. I have to take it one week at a time, one game at a time. I will update our progress each week through the playoffs.

We got this!

BANK SUMMARY