NFL PICKS WEEK 4 THURSDAY NIGHT

Part of my job this year is to manage money.  Maybe yours, I take that seriously. Thursday Nights are tough - they can make us rush our picks for the week and bet parlays just to make it interesting. I did that Monday. I ignored by own system - We predicted GB by 8 - No Over or Under - even money - easy money.  In my defense - GB did not qualify as a pick.

I am committed to using our system data this week. I have not Capped all the games yet. However, using system data - not a "Fun" or "Gut" pick - I have chosen to bet the Thursday night game. Why? Based on the data PIT should cover by 14 and the UNDER is off by -20. 

It looks like a good investment (NOT A SURE THING!) or the pick of the week by a long shot.  
The Risk - bad Run games could force bad passes and T/Os - threatening the UNDER. If Vick throws them - BAL could win.


But this is a small bet offering a 250% return. If it hits, the parlay portion of our bet strategy is complete for the week and we are in the black before the weekend begins. If not - we start over on Sunday down only $34. Trying to call both sides of a game (Winner and Total) is usually a mistake. However, I like the fact that it is just one game and will not effect any other bets.

I have added the most important Head to Head stats to this weeks Game List 
The rest will be out later this week for All Games. 

Tonight 
PIT +3 w/ UNDER 44

Sunday 
BUF -5.5

Just added 1 Single Bet for Sunday!

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

 -Rick Jansen

NFL PICKS WEEK 3 MONDAY NIGHT 2015

___________POSTGAME____________

Smart Money Hit! (Below)

Was hoping KC would convert for 2 on the last score - would have called the exact margin of victory. (8)  Got it within 2 tho (10) 38-28.  Anyway, on to week 4!

___________PREGAME____________
 
(OFF) THIS GAME

HERE'S THE FULL MATCH UP!

NFL PICKS RESULTS WEEK 3 2015

Were Back!
Slowly but surely we are positioning ourselves for a great year. Money Management strategies set. Head to Head analytics ready for next week. I only capped 70% of the games this week. Next week 100%. Our only System Pick was ARI.  They blew out SF 41 - 7. So yeah, Our System still works.  

3-3 50% Paid 15% This Week
In spite of epidemic parody - we made money 2 out of the last 3 weeks and are averaging a 58% Return per week. If you have followed us for the last 4 years - you know that this is in spite of having 3 of our worst weeks ever! Good money management, a little luck and great single bet picks that went 3-1 saved us this week.

More Good News!
Like I said, were only down $16 after some of our worst weeks ever. We are sooo due. Each week the stats become more meaningful. I do not think I have ever been more organized or prepared than we are this year.  We survived the early weeks - got a lot of valuable work done and it costs us less than $20. Looking forward to next week and a great season. 8-8 All Square baby! We'll get back to out normal 67% + Winners and its on! Bring It!

WEEK 3 RESULTS

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 3 2015

This week I took the time to implement our normal System Qualifiers.Although "System Picks" are now just called "Bank Picks" - the system of choosing them is still crucial.

I focused on a grid  that helps me pick - rather than a format to post and show stats that most of you do not care about. So, my analytic's are better than ever. 

The problem is - only one team qualified, Arizona. I will continue to work on this.
In the meantime - I have strong feelings on 6 games. Going with my Gut

Go Big or Go Home! Either I get fooled one more week - or we hit some winners.
As I update the system I will be able to cap all the games every week. 

Here are my Final Picks for the Week. 

All Picks Count toward our Record and Bank Total. 

There are Notes on the right for each Game and Projected Scores next to each team.
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

Note: Projected score shows Panthers wining big. I am going with Saints based on a very weak Schedule so far for CAR, Peyton being a far superior coach to Rivera, Brees being the better QB and the Saints team being up for this game - in an effort to avoid an  0-3 start. Oh yeah.. and I get 8 Points. Its is risky tho - You make the call? 

WEEK 3 THURDAY NIGHT 2015

@NYG -3 vs WAS (44)

I'M OFF THIS GAME

BUT I LIKE 

SKINS MONEY-LINE + THE UNDER

(JUST A SMALL - FUN BET - TO MAKE IT WORTH WATCHING)

This Game does NOT count toward our Bank or Record

HERE'S OUR NEW HEAD TO HEAD FORMAT

HOPE YOU LIKE IT

Note: look to the left of each QB - those are his projected TDs, INTs Saks this game. MATCHUP
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

RECENT GAMES GIANTS

Dallas 27, NY Giants 26

Atlanta 24, NY Giants 20

RECENT GAMES SKINS

Miami 17, Washington 10

Washington 24, St. Louis 10

NFL PICKS RESULTS WEEK 2

2 Week Recap
For the last 2 weeks I used mostly last years data. With 2 weeks under our belt we can get serious now and do some real head to head match ups. It will still take a few more weeks to accumulate really meaningful stats - but we have enough now to get started and make some intelligent plays.

I don't have to tell you that we made some great picks that were literally decided by the final play of the game. Ravens week 1 lost by a fingertip, Houston Last Week, Mallet was overthrowing receivers by 10 yards and still has a chance on the final play?  KC - 4 trips to the red zone for 3 points and 2 fumbles? The Eagles got us twice - everyone expected a lot more from them. Bradford is like a deer in the headlights. Murray has skills - but if you cant pass you cant run. Looks like they traded the Rams for the wrong QB. Keenum would have won it for them last week.  Come to think of it - Texans could have used him too. Anyway, on to week 3. 

60% - 3 of 5 vs 66% 2 of 3
Although we added a 3 Team Parlay to our bank - it really does not belong in a progressive bank strategy. No pro would ever bet a 3 team parlay, However, the concept of going for 60% - 3 out of 5 vs 66% - 3 straight (single) bets is still a good idea. 
  

One Slight Adjustment
This week we make one final adjustment - the 3 team parlay becomes a 2 team parlay with 3 Single bets.The 2 losses from 3 out of 5 would eat up the bank - but a 2 team parlay with 3 singles does buffer those losses and create opportunity for rebound and higher profits. From here on out we will stick to that strategy.

Here is an Example:

Profiting from Parody
Whichever money management strategy we used - we must go 60% to make it work. If you followed us for the last few years - you know we average better than 60%. I hope to continue that in spite of the epidemic parody that has infected the league. Before the season started I thought about just taking points to combat parody. Of course it is not as sample as that - But - last week only 2 teams giving 6 or more covered. 


Pretenders and Contenders
There are a lot more of the later this year. I'm watching the Eagles beat themselves and turn to the 4 team mosaic on DTV. Ravens tied with Raiders and Dolphins tied with Jags - this after Tampa beat the Saints. I had to ask "Are there any "Pro" games on? 


Good News and Added Features
I've already narrowed the contenders down to about 6 candidates. With the added data after 2 weeks I was able to add some great head to head features to the Matchups - without going crazy or making them hard to read. Those will be out this week. 

Just Win Baby
Now that our bank and strategy is set - that is my only job moving forward. 

The Checkbook Honey
If you followed our picks and bets so far - you only lost $52.  I'm not happy about that - but if you think about the Malay of Mediocrity that we have all endured for 2 weeks - it could have been a lot worse. We are 5 -5 50%. So its a new season this week  All Square baby - lets kick some ass this week. Here's the checkbook after last week.

Avg Weekly Return still at 30%
Avg YTD 5%
Win Loss 50% 

NFL PICKS WEEK 2 2015

Last Week 60% Return 

Bank Up %15

PREGAME
Week 2 Bank Picks
KC-3 (LOSS)

PHI - 5 

PARLAY 

HOU +3 / ATL +2.5 / NYJ +7

Bank and Picks  

(Click to Enlarge)

Pick Previews
 (Left Click / Right Click - View Image / Magnify)

Other Games
 (Left Click / Right Click - View Image / Magnify)

Closing Bank Statement Week 1  

(Click to Enlarge)

NFL PICKS WEEK 2 THURSDAY NIGHT

@KC- 3 vs DEN
Projected KC 24 Den 17
My Gut Tells Me - KC 31 Den 17
It's still very early in the season - Don't bet the farm!


Preview

(DEN) Denver has the better Off and Def Line as of last Yr - this yr ? 

(KC) I believe manning is in Decline. Broncos Ranked near last in Rush and Pass Off week 1.

(KC) Kubiak is a horrible coach. 2-11 when he left HOU.

(KC) Smith has plenty of talented targets this year to compliment RB Charles 
Denver Safeties are banged up 

(KC) Denver Running backs are not impressive and Their starting RB is Ques

(KC) The crowd at Arrowhead will be merciless after a good start in week one.
 
I've Picked KC as our First Straight or Single Bank Pick of the Week. 
All Other Picks will be Posted by Saturday Noon or sooner.
I Posted the current Leanings for those trying to Parlay w/ Tonight's Game.
I have not yet capped those other games.
Only KC counts toward our Record and the Bank 

 



x

"Sea Biscuit" Progressive Bank for the Little Guy

Last week we dismissed Parlays as child's play. Then A Parlay saved our ass. Does that mean they are a good investment all of a sudden? Yes and No. We're not gonna hit one every week or even every other week. A Single or Straight bet is still how smart money bets. However, after crunching the numbers all week - I found a way to spread the risk of a parlay and actually increase our odds of winning. If your reaction just now was a Lewis Black Lip Whinny - that's understandable. Here's How I did it. 

We've averaged 70% vs the NFL Spread Over 4 Years
60% in our worst year

3 Single Bets
(Require) 2 Out of 3 -  66%

2 Singles and 1 - 3 Team Parlay
(Require) Only 3 Out of 5 - 60%

As you can see (below) - the Parlay can actually Absorb Losses Creating a Profit.
If Both Losses Hit the Parlay  - We actually Make More Money than if the Parlay Hit
If the Losses Take out the Parlay and a Single Bet - we only lose 24% of that weeks Cash.
Theoretically - We could go 2-3 and Make 53% if All 3 Losses Hit the Parlay. 
The Goal will be to Protect the 2 single bets by placing our Top Picks as Singles

Risk Reward:  3 of 5 - 60% Adding a 3 Team Parlay 

Here is Our Current Traditional Strategy
Return: 3 Single Bets
 















With Our New Formula - We are now able to make the same amount of Gain with a lower Win %.  I looked at using a 2 Team Parlay - But - it absorbed less Risk for Less Return. 
Return: 2 Single (40%) Each with 1 3 Team Parlay (20%)

As you can see Above - We make the Same Return with a Lower Winning % and More Potential for Gain. If a Single and the Parlay Hit - We have one Hell of a Week. 

All of the Above Require a Win% of 60%. This is Gambling - Don't Invest the Rent Money!

I am hoping this super charged version of our "Progressive Bank" will benefit us.
It does provide us little guys with an added chance to hit a big week without substantially increasing our Risk. For that reason I have named this formula "Sea Biscuit"

Red Pollard: 
 "Sometimes when the little guy doesn't know hes the little guy he can do great big things".

Good Luck I'll have this Weeks Picks up by Tomorrow or Friday. 

Thursday Night
At this point I Like KC -3 at Home for Thursday
HOU has a better Defense than DEN - they covered 7 Easy vs them @ HOU
Manning is in Decline and they are at Arrowhead this  week.

- Rick Jansen

RESULTS NFL PICKS WEEK 1 (Progressive Bank)

MAKING BANK!

I got a lot of questions from long time followers. Which bets count as System Picks? etc. that is our total Win/Loss record we've kept for the last 4 years. The "Virtual Bank" replaces "System Picks" but we will still track our W/L record each week.  I've also kept our "Leaning" picks and just moved them off to the side. (see below).

As far as the bank is concerned - I only bet the 3 separate "Bank" bets for $50 each, along with the Parlay for $50. To keep it simple - All bets marked as "Placed" with a dollar amount posted - (The 3 Banks and the Parlay) in Previous post - count toward the Bank and our W/L Record. To keep the Virtual Bank legit - the Virtual amounts of $66 for each "Bank" bet have been subtracted along with an extra $50 for the "Parlay" from the Bank Balance. Funny, sounds like I'm explaining what I spent to my wife (not married) or something. LOL. Anyway - We made money honey.

Week 1 Results
I will Post This Grid each Week Pregame - so All Our Picks are in one Place.

(Click to Enlarge)

 * Predicted Exact Score in BUF game.


WINNER!
(Click to Enlarge)

Final Picks Placed Tue 9-8-2015

Recaps
Summaries for each game later this week

3 Team Parlay

@BUF +3 vs IND (WIN)

@STL +4 vs SEA (WIN)

NYG +6 @DAL  (WIN)  Returned $330

Straight Bets

PHI -3 @ ATL (Loss)
Projected PHI 31-24

MIN -3 @ SF (Loss) 
Projected MIN 24-13 

Final - NE FINAL 28-21 NE -7 (Push) Returned $66
Projected NE 28-13 
As predicted Brady tore them up with short passes. With Blount out and Gray gone - Lewis had a few good runs. He was ineffective on the goal line however, where a larger back was needed. Pats failed to run out the clock without a power run game.

Brady was a little rusty and missed a few passes that would have run it up and closed it out. The New England defense gave up several big plays and failed to prevent a desperate Steeler offense from scoring with just seconds left and blowing the cover (push). The quick release pass game of Brady was impressive - but might not be verses an effective opposing offense. The Steelers stopped themselves for the most part - not the Pat's defense. Todd Haley was fired by KC and continues to under perform as an offensive coordinator. We will have to wait and see what the PIT offense looks like with its starters back. The Pats defense gave us reason for concern if we plan to put money on the New England Offense. They were useless against the run and gave up big pass plays on 3rd to a team missing its offensive starters. I was not impressed with the performance of either team.

NFL PICKS WEEK 1 2015-2016 (Progressive Bank)

How 2 out of 3 makes the Pros Millions!                       
I spoke with a sportsbooks manager on the driving range a few weeks ago. He could not believe "A" that we are 70% vs the NFL spread over the last 4 years or "B" - that if we were - we do not own a private plane. I explained that I do not understand how that makes anyone a fortune. I told him "If I bet $100 per game -  I still wont make enough to buy a private plane". He explained that the big boys use a system called "Progressive Bank" I asked how that worked, and after my head stopped spinning  - I went home and figured it out on an excel form. 

Progressive Bank - Here's how it Works!
Its like earning interest on a savings account. They have huge banks - but you can do it too with less $. You start with a set amount. Example: $1000 & bet 20% or $200 week 1. You win $200, Total $1200 & bet 20% again or $240 the next week. You can see how your bank can grow exponentially. You have to allow for losses. Make 3 single straight bets - if you win 2 (66%) your bank grows.

ROI 
Our system is designed to produce an (ROI) or return on investment of 144% by the end of week 17.  "Progressive Bank" requires discipline - thus the word "bank". This is a savings -  NOT a checking account. You wont survive if you blow your bank on 1 game or spend your winnings.

Caution - this is gambling. Only bet what you and afford to burn "Literally". There is no such thing as a sure thing or a perfect betting system. This is NOT easy money. Parody is out of control in the NFL. Professional handicappers average 45%. Most experts consider 60% unacheivable. 
                                                                            
# of Bets
More bets require a higher winning %. 1 out of 2 (50%) - wont grow the bank. 2 of 3 (66%) wiil. 3 of 4 (75%). 3 of 5 only (60%) but the 2 losses eat up the balance. We will bet 3 games per week.

Bank
The amount you start the year with. Figure what you bet per week x 5. You can start with just a weeks worth of bank. Allow for bad weeks by only betting 20% per week. This gives you 5 weeks to hit some winners and build your bank without going bust.                                                                            
Straight Bets
Win over 50% of the time and your bank to grows. Bet single bets NOT parlays - win 2 out of 3 and you will start making money instead of losing parlays.
                                                                             
Weekly Allowance
In order to stay within your budget - you must divide the number of bets each week by your weekly allowance of 20% - just round to the dollar.              
                                                                           
Time to Show the World!
Progressive bank is nothing new. Making it available to the average Joe  - along with winning picks to make it work - is something new. 

Paying for Picks?
Every week on Twitter - houses brag about last weeks winning percentage. Here's the problem. You have to pay for picks - so unlike us -  they never post them pregame! They can make up whatever they want.   think most of them do. The legit results posted on Vegas Insider reveal an average win % by the pros of about 45%. No one is advertising that on Twitter

When you do the math on paying for picks and betting games - it is a losing proposition for most. If we are able to stay at 60% or better again this year - we will all make money and take the industry by storm. Don't worry - I'm never gonna charge a fortune for this. If successful - I will simply charge an affordable monthly fee to access all our picks.

Documented Proof
Each week I will post our beginning and ending balance and 3 single straight bet picks that count towards it. Results will be updated each week. This will be very clear and simple to follow. There will be no questions whatsoever as to the validity of our success. Only bets listed as Bank Picks count toward our bank balance.A photo of our 3 Bank Picks will also be posted pregame on Twitter @RickonTheStrip
 
This Weeks Pregame Bank Picks (Below)

Good luck everyone
- Rick Jansen

 __________________________________
   

PREGAME
Beginning Bank: $1000   Bets: 3 x $66   Bet Total: $198   Balance: $802
Week 1 Bank Picks
NE -7 / PHI - 3 / MIN -2.5

(Click to Enlarge)

Final Picks Placed Tue 9-8-2015

PREVIEWS

PHI -3 @ ATL Mon 9/14 4:10 pm (PST)

Projected PHI 31-24 

One thing the Falcons could not do last year was stop the run. De Marco Murray will look to exploit that weakness Monday Night. He was dissed and dismissed by the Cowboys. Look for him to run over anyone in his way on a Network night game. PHI QB Bradford had a good preseason, ATL was dead last in Pass Defense last year. Good place for him to start. The Falcons do not have a Home Field advantage 3 - 4 on their home turf last year. PHI 3-4 on the road. I like the Eagles by 7.

Injury Updates:

PHI
TE Ertz (Limited)

ATL
RB Freeman (Prob)
WR White (Prob)
WR Hester (DNP)

MIN -2.5 @ SF Mon 9/14 7:20 pm (PST)

Projected MIN 24-13

Kaepernick never learned how to throw a football. He palms it!  Result - lofted balls easy to pick. He has wheels, but the offense that required only legs is yesterdays news. The Niner's were horrible last year. I doubt much has changed or that Reggie Bush will help much. SF has targets in Smith, Bolden and Davis, But the QB cant throw. 

The Vikings on the other hand are trending. Bridgewater has mad skills and the addition of Mike Wallace just makes them more dangerous. Wallace score TDs. The MIN backfield is also full of talent. Any of those 3 backs are worthy of starting. The big question for the Vikings is the offensive line. Still injury plagued. MIN will have to travel cross country. SF has a Home Night Game. Can't call this a lock - However, Team on the Rise vs Team in Decline. I like MIN giving less than a FG. 

Injury Updates:
 
MIN
C - Sullivan (No Data?)

SF
CB Brock (Limited) 

@NE -7 vs PIT (Final NE 28-21)
Projected NE 28- 13

Sept 9th 9:52 pm

NE - RB Jonas Gray was Cut by Belichick

Blount is Out (1 game suspension) - Blount was not a Key Injury with Jonas starting. 

I would not bet this game knowing this. Bolden will start at RB for Pats.

He has failed to perform in the past. What a way to start week 1 and the Progressive Bank!

Well, I marked all 3 bets as placed in our virtual bank. I can't UN-bet the Patriots.

You can though - if your bets are not placed - OFF the Patriots.

We haven't lost yet - Steelers are minus WR Bryant and RB Bell.

 Steelers and had a very weak Pass Defense last year. 

Hopefully Gronk and The New England receiving team can save my ass.  

Gray (to Miami) follows Reggie Wayne out the revolving door in New England.

Rot in Hell Belichick!

Injury Updates: 

Sept 9th 

PIT - RB Bell and WR Bryant (Out - Suspended)  

__________________________________


PREGAME
Non Bank Parlay

(Click to Enlarge)

Final Picks Placed Tue 9-8-2015

Injury Updates
Sept 9th
BUF - All RBs and WR Probable now
IND - WR Hilton - still Ques
NYG - Cruz still Ques

__________________________________


PREGAME
Other Non Bank Games

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(Click to Enlarge)