For the last 2 weeks I used mostly last years data. With 2 weeks under our belt we can get serious now and do some real head to head match ups. It will still take a few more weeks to accumulate really meaningful stats - but we have enough now to get started and make some intelligent plays.
I don't have to tell you that we made some great picks that were literally decided by the final play of the game. Ravens week 1 lost by a fingertip, Houston Last Week, Mallet was overthrowing receivers by 10 yards and still has a chance on the final play? KC - 4 trips to the red zone for 3 points and 2 fumbles? The Eagles got us twice - everyone expected a lot more from them. Bradford is like a deer in the headlights. Murray has skills - but if you cant pass you cant run. Looks like they traded the Rams for the wrong QB. Keenum would have won it for them last week. Come to think of it - Texans could have used him too. Anyway, on to week 3.
60% - 3 of 5 vs 66% 2 of 3
Although we added a 3 Team Parlay to our bank - it really does not belong in a progressive bank strategy. No pro would ever bet a 3 team parlay, However, the concept of going for 60% - 3 out of 5 vs 66% - 3 straight (single) bets is still a good idea.
One Slight Adjustment
This week we make one final adjustment - the 3 team parlay becomes a 2 team parlay with 3 Single bets.The 2 losses from 3 out of 5 would eat up the bank - but a 2 team parlay with 3 singles does buffer those losses and create opportunity for rebound and higher profits. From here on out we will stick to that strategy.
Here is an Example:
Whichever money management strategy we used - we must go 60% to make it work. If you followed us for the last few years - you know we average better than 60%. I hope to continue that in spite of the epidemic parody that has infected the league. Before the season started I thought about just taking points to combat parody. Of course it is not as sample as that - But - last week only 2 teams giving 6 or more covered.
Pretenders and Contenders
There are a lot more of the later this year. I'm watching the Eagles beat themselves and turn to the 4 team mosaic on DTV. Ravens tied with Raiders and Dolphins tied with Jags - this after Tampa beat the Saints. I had to ask "Are there any "Pro" games on?
Good News and Added Features
I've already narrowed the contenders down to about 6 candidates. With the added data after 2 weeks I was able to add some great head to head features to the Matchups - without going crazy or making them hard to read. Those will be out this week.
Just Win Baby
Now that our bank and strategy is set - that is my only job moving forward.
The Checkbook Honey
If you followed our picks and bets so far - you only lost $52. I'm not happy about that - but if you think about the Malay of Mediocrity that we have all endured for 2 weeks - it could have been a lot worse. We are 5 -5 50%. So its a new season this week All Square baby - lets kick some ass this week. Here's the checkbook after last week.
Avg Weekly Return still at 30%
Avg YTD 5%
Win Loss 50%
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