Play Along at Home
The System
The whole idea of this site is to help everyone win money. Beat the NFL Spread.
The system I invented 5 year ago works. The moron running it "Me" has always been able to help or hurt it. Not anymore. This year I will post the Naked System Picks and they will count toward the Season Record, period.
In my defense - I did call the Pick of the Week - Texans and it Hit!
Injuries
You could argue that I should call off some system picks due to an injury. But the spread often reflects injuries and half the time the injury report is wrong. Waiting on injuries also delays my posting the System Picks. I got complaints about that in the past from some of you serious gamblers - as it can hurt your line If you're taking the favorite.
Calling Off System Picks
If there is a MAJOR case for calling Off a System Pick I will. But I won't make a habit of it and will still post the naked System Picks with a note of why I'm off that game - so you can choose for yourself.
Bets and Bank
I have to choose 3 Teams for a 3 team parlay each week. That is how, in the past I can help or hurt the system. I pick which System picks count. Not anymore. I will post the naked System Picks and you can choose what you bet in your bank.
Advantage
This way you have the advantage of the System Picks, and the the Progressive Bank money management strategy. That's a huge advantage. What you do with it is up to you, as you play along at home, with your real money.
I will still post my bank picks (from the top 6 System Picks) and balance. But this way you'll get all the system picks early and unfiltered.
System Record Week 1 (7-2)
As you can see the System did just fine on its own. I played with it and added points to Buffalo. Because they scored more in preseason the one game Tyrod Taylor played. Then I spent hours on a full head to head matchup and bet the Rams at the last minute (not a system picks). Not doing that anymore. How did I go 7-2 and not make money? LOL. Giants beat the Cowboy and I added Buffalo. Otherwise the top 3 Favorites (Top Green) and Top 3 Dogs (Bottom Brown) All hit. Here is how "my" System did without "my" help .
Progressive Bank Balance Week 1
The good thing about just betting 1 $50 parlay a week - we can take a chance on a Monday night game, lose and still have 8 weeks of bets left.
I'll have this weeks pick up by tomorrow at the latest.
Good Luck
-Rick Jansen
There is a lot of talk about Overs and Unders tonight. Over PIT vs WAS and Under LA vs SF.
I took the time to do full Head to Head Match Ups for both games - based on week 17 2016 and this years preseason. I wont be doing that on 32 teams this year. I may be wrong, but I found traps for the most part. Its week one, so these teams are still a box of chocolate.
I did find one game I am willing to Risk $50 on in a straight single bet. Yes it counts toward the Bank.
BANK BET
$50
RAMS -3 @ SF
HERE ARE THE FULL HEAD TO HEAD MATCH UPS
(THU Noon) All Games Head2Head w/out Injuries & TNF Pick
(SAT Noon) All Games Head2Head w/ Injuries & FINAL Picks
(PST)
Always Follow https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip for Live Bets and Updates
Our Money Management Strategy
As you know, I'm not a believer in
betting $1000 on one team to win $900. There are no sure things, especially
with parody running rampant in the league. There is a method though, for making the most of the money you have to bet....
Progressive Bank
This method is is how professional gambling houses turn 100k into several million. But you can get similar results with a much smaller amount. Progressive Bank cash management allows us to potentially make a large amount of money
with a small initial investment. You bet a percentage of your bank each
week. If we win, our Balance increases and so does the amount we can bet
each week, and thus the amount you can win. If you win consistently, it's like
an interest earning savings account - but grows much faster at a rate of
return.
Straight Bets
You have a better
chance of making money every week with straight bets. That can help the
bank to grow exponentially, Which is the point of a progressive bank.
Good Luck!
-Rick Jansen
WEEK ONE PICKS
.
PICK SUMMARY
BUFFALO....
caps out at a push +3. I think the Bills have more talent and a better QB on offense than the Ravens, and just as good a defense. I see them winning outright by 4 but I'll take the 3
(Pick of The Week)
HOUSTON.....
is probably the strongest of the 3 picks, Cutler should have retired years ago. The Texans should have their way with him. Brock Osweiler should be fine at QB. Lamar Miller should step up and take the pressure off him to win the game. Texans by 10.
DALLAS.....
If the preseason was any indicator, the Giants (averaging only 10 points per game) could be in for a long year. On the other hand, the best thing that happened to the Cowboys this year may be Romo's bad back. Dak Prescott was on fire in the preseason. I like him at home this week vs what I hope will be a NY team in decline. Cowboys by 7.
Don't bet the farm. Week one is based on preseason stats.
WEEK 1 PREVIEW
JUST FOR FUN, 4 TEAM MONEYLINE
Hey, its week one, Odds makers make mistakes this time of year. No, these Fun Picks do not count toward our Progressive Bank or our Season Record. But I actually like these picks.
Good Luck!
We Bought the Opening Line
CAR -4 vs DEN (44.5)
OVER (44.5)
Current Line
CAR -5.5 vs DEN (44.5)
Projected
CAR 37-17
I'm taking SuperFly over the Super Old White Guy. The Panthers picked apart an immobile Carson Palmer. Manning is older, slower and throws like Betty White. Sorry Betty. The Cards also had one of the top defenses in the league - that did not stop Cam.
I was not a fan of Rivera, but he has let Cam and the players take over and it's working. Kubiak is no genius. Wade Philips isn't either and a good defense will only take you so far without an offense to match. Especially vs a team with both.
The DEN Defense matches up well vs the CAR Offense - But the Broncos offense does not look good vs the CAR D. Manning only 9TDS & 17 INTs. DEN Pass Off is 26th vs the CAR Pass Def 4th. Look for 3 and out to wear out a solid DEN D. This will open things up for CAM and Company. Newton has 35 TDs and only 10 INTs on the yr. DEN loses the Turnover Ratio CAR +20 DEN -4. DEN punter is lousy too and wont give them much breathing room.
MATCH UP
BANK RECEIPT ($100 2 Team Parlay) CAR + Over
EARLY LINE PICK
FINAL BANK BET
CAR -4
Some Great Odds in Golf This week....
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/
EARLY LINE PICKS
THESE ARE FINAL BANK BETS
NE -3
CAR -3
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
(2 TEAM PARLAY $100)
POSTGAME BANK BALANCE
VIRTUAL BANK WINS BIG!
(3 Team Parlay Pays $1200)
Bank Up $552 155% on the Year
EARLY LINE PICKS
THESE ARE FINAL BANK BETS
NE -4.5 (WIN)
CAR -1.5 (WIN)
DEN -6 (WIN)
@NE -4.5 vs KC (43)
Post: NE 27-20
Projected NE 17-10 (27) (NE) (WIN)
Although the Chiefs scored 30 vs the Texans - most of those points were the result of 3 and outs and turnovers by the Houston offense. Several turnovers occurred in the first half, about 6 scoring ops resulted in just 13 points by an ineffective KC Red Zone Offense. The Pats have a laundry list of injuries including Gronk and Amendola listed as questionable. However, Gronk is expected to play and Edelman is also Probable. NE has a better offense and defense, I like them by a TD at Home. < Correct - NE won by a TD )
Over / Under (OFF)
With limited targets - Brady may not run it up vs the 3rd ranked KC pass defense. However, KC allows 75% TDs in the red Zone and the Pats defense may hand Brady 3 and outs which could take it Over 43? < Correct - Total went over - 47)
@ARI -7 vs GB (49.5)
Post: ARI 26-20 (My Gut was Right - Cards Did Not Cover)
Projected ARI 34-21 (55) (OFF)
If
you like the Cards - the Stats agree. ARI may indeed blow out GB. I
just do not feel comfortable betting them. Cards dominate the match up -
but they scored 6 vs Seattle and the Packers put up 35 vs the Skins.
You can't compare those teams defensively - but Rodgers got hot vs the
Vikings if he does again this week - and Cards stall again - anything
can happen in a year where everything has. It may be a mistake but my
gut says stay off this one. (It sure as hell did) LOL.
Over / Under (OFF)
Packers could stall vs a solid Cards defense - if so this one goes under. Off.
(Correct - Total went under - 49.5)
@CAR -1.5 vs SEA (47)
Post: CAR 31-24
Projected CAR 27-20 (47) (CAR) (WIN)
Pete Carrol and his inept offensive coordinator Darrell Bevel are allowing Russell Wilson to run around the backfield again. This strategy will result in absolute failure on offense vs the Panthers. Last week - 3 visits to the MIN 30 resulted in 0 TDs. Unless they stay vertical with short passes, boots and a lot of lynch - 3 and outs will = a route for CAR. You have 2 good defenses and 1 good offense in this one - led by Cam Newton - "NOT" Russell Wilson. Panthers roll by 7 or more.
Over / Under (OFF)
It would not surprise me one bit if Wilson is allowed to take deep drops and run around the backfield. If so - 3 and outs by SEA could wear down the SEA Defense. This would allow the Panthers to run over the Hawks and it could go over.
@DEN -6 vs PIT (39.5)
Post: DEN 20-13
Projected DEN 24-13 (37) (DEN) (WIN)
Denver is scary healthy. The Steelers on the other hand will be without their top Running back Williams and WR Brown. Ben is expected to play but is hurting. That is "NOT" the main reason hey will lose. That burden will fall on Offensive coordinator Todd Haley. He is the worst play caller in the league. The PIT offense struggled vs CIN "with' Brown in the line up for 119 yds receiving. Manning's days in the NFL are numbered. He should have a decent one Sunday though - vs a tired PIT defense - worn out by bad playing calling and 3 and out on Offense. DEN by 10.
Over / Under (OFF)
We have the total within a few points of the Book - so were off the Over / Under.
BANK RECEIPT (3 team pays $1200)
KC -3 @HOU (Everywhere)
Chiefs are just a much better team.
Caution: (OFF) No QBs out for HOU - Texans won the match up!
3 TEAM PARLAY
BANK BET
$200 Pays $1200
@CIN +3 vs PIT (Wynn)
Let's Hope Todd Haley Calls a bad game for Steelers again.
I like Bengals at Home getting a FG. PIT has the weaker Pass Def.
SEA -4.5 @MIN (MGM)
Lynch Full Practice - Buy Now - Line May Move toward SEA Soon.
Lynch refuses to board plane "I'm not feeling it" - OUT!
Details:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AfANEPSIZc
GB @ WAS OVER (45.5)
Skins hot, at home, and win Match Up. Projected by 10+ - But - WAS Pass Def 27th vs Rodgers? WAS Rush Def 25th? Taking the Over instead.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
The sportbooks cleaned up as every sensible bet went south. I miss professional Football. Haven't seen much of that this year. Most games seem to be decided by luck more than skill this year. Oh well, no time to whine - onto the playoffs.
The Good News
If we only go 50% this year - our 5 year average will be 68% - that is still the best record on the planet by a mile. Part Time - with no staff - full crew next year.
NEXT YEAR - NO WIN - NO CHARGE!
After the first 0-5 week in our history I thought about next year. If we start charging $40 a month for full access to our data and picks I made a decision. Any month we do not show a profit - the next month is free. We will be "Hands Down" the best deal in town. Keep in mind too - right now I do this part time. Next year I will have a full crew full time. Can't wait!
WEEK 17 BANK
7 POINT TEASER
BONUS - OFF THE RECORD
$100 PAYS $450
SEE BANK BETS (PREVIOUS POST)
Note: Next year as part of our service - our team will search out and post the best early lines available. We will post the Online and Vegas books offering each line. As you can see - the line moves can be enormous and create a great advantage for our clients. Early lines can be risky prior to injury reports. However, unlike this yr - next yr my team will have every game capped by Tuesday - so they will be less risky.
(Update) Reid Report:
Seattle had nothing to gain by winning last week or this week. I don't
understand why the opening line had Seattle -1.5. It is now AZ -7 !
Bruce Arians said he will rest no one Sun and try to win in case
Carolina loses again. NFL moved Carolina game from 1:00 to 4:25 so AZ
won't rest their starters
WEEK 17 BANK BETS
EARLY LINE PICKS 12/27
*STL-2.5 @SF
*NE-3.5 @MIA
*@ARI+2.5 vs SEA
ADDED 12/31
@NYG-3 vs PHI
@DEN-9 vs SD
*(Early lines posted 12/27on link below)
BANK RECEIPT
Early Lines Posted 12/27 On:
http://www.footballlocks.com/early_nfl_point_spreads.shtml
Note: the lines are gone now - screenshot below
2 WINNING PARLAYS!
Like I said a few weeks ago -all or nothing thinking does not work. Teasers saved our week.
WAS+10 @PHI
OAK+1.5
OAK-SD UNDER 53.5
CIN+10.5 @DEN (covered ATS straight up)
UNDER 48
Not the week I was looking for - But - I made you money and that's All I care about. My buddy who manages the book just shook his head about the CAR, NE, and PIT losses. The books cleaned up.
BANK STATEMENT
LATE ADDITION!
PIT-10 @BAL (47)
Projected PIT 32-16
BAL Rush Def 30th vs Hot PIT Pass Off. BAL Rush Off 30th vs #3 Def Line and Rush Def. Mallett will be behind early and pressured to pass. PIT (3 Saks per game) will Tee Off on him. 3 and Outs by BAL = Rout by PIT. BAL T/O Ratio -14, PIT +4.
Post
I was wrong - Mallett did spark them. But it should not have mattered. PIT dominated that match up. Once again Todd Haley lost it for the Steelers. His play calling cost them the game.
HEAD TO HEAD
SATURDAY
WAS+3.5 @PHI (41)
Projected WAS 28-20
Our 7 Point Teaser Ticket (From Thursday)
WAS+10 @PHI
OAK+1.5
OAK-SD UNDER 53.5
Well. WAS turned out to be a system pick. We already have them on a 3 Team 7 Point Teaser with OAK and the UND on that game. So, as you know - we are in the 3rd leg of that 3 leg ticket. Go Redskins! The Skins have not played yet - so I just added that small ticket to the bank. It is a Teaser - so if it hits - it only counts as one win - same with the Monday Night Teaser (Below).
FINAL WAS 38-24
WINNING TICKET!
_________________________________
DON'T FORGET - WE STILL HAVE EARLY LINE PICKS
SUNDAY
NE-3 @NYJ (WillHill) Note: Early Pick prior - Injury Report. NE Stars out on Off and Def.
CAR-7 @ATL (WillHill)
STL+14.5 @SEA (5Dimes)
NO MATCH ON EARLY LINE PICKS
Post
NE the danger with early lines is no Injury Report. 3 starters out on OFF and DEF for Pays. They still should have covered - but - Belichick's ego forgot he had 3 starts out on DEF. They won the Toss in OT - if they receive - they most likely win and cover.
Post
CAR My little sister is a lifelong Panthers fan. I think we all lost out on something special. Falcons not the better team - but - a perfect storm kept CAR a perfect season.
Post
STL What I tell you bout Case Keenum? God that was fun!
MONDAY NIGHT
CIN+3.5 @DEN (41) (MGM)
Projected CIN 20-17
I'm buying this now with CIN at +3.5 In case it drops to +3. That teases out to CIN +10.5 and the over to (51). Defense Dominates this Match Up - But - the Under is factored at (41) which is why I am making it a 2 team 7 point Teaser. Plus I love CIN +10.5.
Our 7 Point Teaser Ticket
CIN+10.5 @DEN UNDER (48) (CORRECTED)
FINAL DEN 20-17 (37)
WINNING TICKET!
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
@OAK-5.5 vs SD (46.5)
Projected OAK 17-16 (33)
(OFF)
OAK could blow them out - but 3 WR hurting. See Match up for more details
HEAD TO HEAD
(THU/SAT) TEASER
7 POINT TEASE
OAK +1.5
OAK UNDER 53.5
WAS +10
X
OFFICIAL BANK BETS
NE-3 @NYJ (WillHill)
CAR-7 @ATL (WillHill)
STL+14.5 @SEA (5Dimes)
BANK RECEIPT
Thursday Match Up will be Posted by Noon Thursday
All Others by Friday (Xmas day) 5pm
x
ARI-3.5 @PHI
WINNER
Projected ARI 42-17
Final ARI 40 -17
@NE-14 vs TEN
WINNER
Total Domination as predicted - but lead shrank at the end.
Lucky Belichick decided to kick a meaningless FG at the end to cover though.
NYJ-3 @DAL
Push - Missed a Win by a missed extra point
CAR-4 @NYG
Lost by 1 Point
CAR gave up a 21 point lead in the 4th.
BUF-PK @WAS
Loss - Just a bad pick on my part.
Bad Coaching killing that team - I knew that last week.
That wasn't gonna change in a week.
(RICK PICK) RAMS-2.5
WINNER
I won with the Rams and did not bet the bank on them -STL much better pick than the Bills.
But - hindsight is always 20-20.
NO-2.5 vs DET with Over (51.5)
Win / Loss - Over was Easy Money - killed ticket adding Saints at the last minute.
System did its job - Lions won the Match up.
4-2?
As you can see (above). Even with 2 bad calls on my part - we should have be 4-2 this week.
Reid Report
Reid; "Vegas Books lost 4 million this weekend".
One weekend the books clean up the next they get hammered. The top Handicappers in the world are between 55 and 61% right now. Proof once again - we are surviving an insanely hard season. See for yourself:
Click on a name to see their record for the year.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/
No - we are not on there - we did not signup. Maybe next year.
In The Hunt
43-39 52.4%
53 Games Left
Only 11 or so NFL teams have a winning record. Only about a few dozen Pro handicappers (charging for picks) are above break even (52.8) as well. So, if we were an NFL Team - we would be in the hunt for the playoffs - with 53 games left - we could still win our division? I guess our division would be guys with No Staff, Handicapping part time from their bedroom after work. LOL. I can't wait to hire a crew next year and crush picks every week.
Parlays vs Straight Bets
If we placed only single straight bets all season - the bank would only be down about $17.
Right now we are down about $250. So, you may see a few parlays here and there this year - just playing catch up. I will not spend the first 5 weeks next year - figuring out betting strategy - it wilt be straight bets only.
Paying to Play
My business partner (at my real job) and seasoned Vegas veteran made a point. He said that a lot of people would be glad to pay to play all year and break even - just for the entertainment value. That was nice to hear and probably true. Just know that I will never accept that as our goal.
2 Minute Drill
With all we've learned this year and with a full staff in 2016 - it's unlikely we will be scrambling to make 60% this time next year. We worked real hard all season. The important thing is that we end with a winning season. I'm crunching the numbers on 60% right now - which would tie our worst season ever. I would have to go 4-0 or 6-2 the next 2 weeks - it could happen - but not a realistic game plan. If you're going to pay me $40 a month to make you money next year - I need to make that my goal now as well - not let my ego get in the way. If I get reckless betting too many games - trying to get to 60% with 53 games left - that would be foolish.
Measuring Success
The Bank
With 2 regular season weeks left - I have to be careful to see who plays and who sits. I'm not too worried about the bank balance. If you are grading us for next year - like I say - the bank would only be down about $17 and a few good weeks will get the bank back up over $1000.
The Record
What I care about most is our Win / Loss record. That's what people will look at the most.
You have to get to 52.8 to show a profit - we are at 52.4 now. I will not be happy with even 55% though - neither will you. I mentioned previously that "All or Nothing Thinking" doesn't work in life or gambling - so here is my plan. There are just not enough games left to shoot for 60% without getting reckless. Here is what I "am" confident I "can" do - and it would take us to over 58% on the year.
WEEK 16
4-2
WEEK 17
4-2
WILD CARD PLAY OFFS
6-2
DIVISIONAL PLAY OFFS
6-2
CONFERENCE PLAY OFF
3-1
SUPERBOWL
1-0
67 - 48 58%
That should still
place us about top 10 in the world vs the NFL spread. At the beginning
of the year - the experts said 60% was impossible - so 58% should be
considered a very good year.
I will also have to look at the match ups and may pick a week with just 4 games one week if needed. One thing we did learn this year - was not to be too rigid. I have to take it one week at a time, one game at a time. I will update our progress each week through the playoffs.
We got this!
BANK SUMMARY
POSTGAME_______________
Half Right
Around 3pm yesterday I posted a pick of Just The Over. That was easy money. Adding the Saints at the last minute went against the match up and was stupid.
Good Risk Reward
At the same time - it was low risk high reward. Saints were flat as hell thru 3 quarters. They dropped or had like 6 TDs called back. So. we came much closer to calling both sides than the final score reflects. We did not hurt the record 1-1 and only lost $50 looking to win $130. So, not beating my self up too bad. The big mistake here was missing out on a strong Over bet. Every lesson learned this year is money in the bank next year. Note to Rick - Take the Easy Money.
PREGAME_______________
@NO-2.5 vs DET (51.5)
Projected NO 31-28 (OT) (59)
BANK BET
2 TEAM PARLAY
NO-2.5 W/ OVER (51.5)
Going out on a limb a little - but not much. This is far from a system pick - but - I like Saints at home and the Over. DET 1-5 on the Road going into the dome with a -9 T/O Ratio. Lions win Pass Off big - but Saints do not lose on Pass Off and it is Brees at home. New Orleans put up 38 vs Carolina. Lions allowed 21 vs Rams. DET projected at 87% in the Red Zone - NO projected at 71% in the Red Zone but Saints better big play potential.
This is somewhat Risky gut pick - but Saints and the Over would not suprise anyone - so I'll take a shot.
HEAD TO HEAD
BANK RECEIPT
x
POSTGAME______________
ARI 40-17
WINNER!
PREGAME______________
PICK OF THE WEEK
ARI -3.5 @PHI
Projected ARI 42-17
Everyone including the experts are jumping on the Eagles bandwagon. This team was in shambles a few weeks ago. 3 lucky special team mistakes by New England got them a victory vs the Pats. Last week the Bills literally beat themselves. They only rushed 3 and played 12 yds off the receivers - that made Bradford look like Brady. He isn't even the same species. I see no reason to believe the Eagles have fixed anything.
I fully expect Bradford to look like a deer in he headlights vs this Cardinals defense. That will produce 3 and outs and a route for a high scoring ARI offense.
"They are who we thought they were and it will show vs Arizona."
HEAD TO HEAD
PENDING SUNDAY PICKS
ARI -3.5 @PHI
CAR-4 @NYG
BUF(PK) @WAS
@NE-14 vs TEN
X
