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Pick of the Week
PHI @ DAL (OVER) (53)
Projected (61) Total (53). Orton will Lead DAL Offense to score, and not blow the game like Romo would. But the Horrible DAL Def will allow Foles and a Lighting Fast PHI offense to run it up and probably Cover 7. Even if Orton pulls this one out - the OVER seems like the best bet of the week to me.
RERESH YOUR SCREEN FOR LATEST UPDATES!
INJURY ALERT!
DET: WR CALVIN JOHNSON -(OUT) vs MIN
CIN: TE Gresham and BUP TE Eifert (OUT)
Update: Sun 7:50 AM
New:
HOU:
QB- Schaub for Keenum-(Ques)
TE-Griffin 5 TDs (Prob) - was DBT
RB Tate-IR, Bup RB Dennis Johnson DNP- (Ques )
Update: Sun 5:11 AM
New:
NE / BUF (Huge Line Drop from NE -9 to -7.5 ?)
BUF: Star Receiver out!
QB: Lewis for Manuel (no real difference)
RB: Jackson (Prob)
WR: Stevie Johnson (OUT)
SS: Wiliams 82 Tackles (OUT)
NE: Long List of Injuries. But No Starters Out 1- DBT.
LB McCourty (DBT)
WRs: Thompkins, Dobson: (Limited Practiced)
RB: Vereen (Limited Practiced)
With WR Stevie Johnson out for Bills - you would think the line would go to -10. The only reason I can think for the Drop in this Line is the Reversal of RB Jackson from DBT to Prob. Although, one of the NE Stars limited in practice for NE may be a no go. Which would make more sense. I still like Pats in this one and even more at -7.5.
Update: Sat 6:39 PM
I didn't forget you guys. The Injuries below were updated earlier. However. All those still in yellow look like Game Time Decisions. So use caution and proceed accordingly.
New:
GB: WR Randal Cobb has been (activated).
BAL: WR Torrey Smith- Practiced Limited (Ques)
Updated: 5:pm
http://www.happycapper.com/WK17NFLGAMES.html
Still Awaiting Final Injury Reports
Sat Morn Update:
WAIT FOR INJURY REPORTS!
The outcome of 4 Games this week may be determined by Injury Reports due out Today. These all involve Solid Picks that I can't pull the trigger on - until the Injury Reports are Released.
@ CIN -6 over BAL___________(Pending)
Bengals:
TE Gresham 4 TDs (DNP) all week (Ques).
Bup TE Eifert 2 TDs is (Dbt).
Star LB Burflict 157 Tackles / 3 Sacks (Prob)
Star Corner Newman 52 Tackles 2 INTs (OUT)
I like CIN by 7. 24-17. Think the Bengals Def will wreck Overpaid loser -Flacco. But without a TE and 2 Defensive stars out - the undependable Bengal are a little more Dicey.
@ MIN -3 over DET ___________(Pending)
Vikings:
RB Peterson (Out)
Bup RB Gerhart (7.9 per Carry - 2TD) (OUT)
Both RBs have been Removed from the NFL.com Depth Chart.
That Leaves:
RB Asiata. (30 Carries - 1.7 per. 2 TD)
Those stats look like a guy who can punch it in from the 5 yd line - but maybe Not the guy to help drive the team to the 5.
Lions:
*Calvin Johnson (DBT)
Pettigrew (OUT) - IR (Staffords Go to Guy when he can't find Megatron)
* Johnson has
played through his injury so far. But, reports say he may need surgery.
There is No Reason for Lions to risk further injury to their MVP in a
game that means nothing to the Lions (Out of Playoffs).
MIN is playing last game in the Met and would like a good Home finale in that stadium. So Peterson being Out is not a deal breaker. But, now that his Bup is also out - this game turns on whether Johnson plays. Even without Johnson - The lions have the 14th Ranked Def. I Like Cassell. Stafford's side arms throws are pathetic and and Coach Schwartz is an ass clown. - so Hope Vikings cover. But this has become a gut Pick - based on last game in the Met. Might as well make that bet now if you agree.
But Statistically - Projected MIN 23-20 Vikings -3 = Push.
DEN (-11) over @OAK ________Report Released! (Pending Spread
-10.5
Lines were mixed on first drop - -10.5 / -11. All Lines have moved to -10.5 now. Should find -10 somewhere in the morning.
Broncos:
*Welker (OUT)
*Just Released. I'm a little surprised. But DEN just wants to win and doesn't need to cover 14 like we do. Guess they think they an do that without him and probably right to save him for the playoffs. This also shows that Fox may sit players and even manning if they get a comfortable lead.
Raiders:
*Pryor Starting over McGloin.
Pryor's agent was qouted as saying that starting him was a set up for him to fail. Giving the raiders an excuse to cut him in favor of McGloin. That could inspire or deflate a talented young QB.
This game features Peyton Manning vs the 28th Ranked Pass Def of Oakland. However, OAK has the 9th ranked Def Line and 10th Ranked Rush Off. This will also be the game of his career for Pryor - which could go either way, With Welker back - it was all about a Broncos Blow out. Now - a slight question whether they cover or not.
The Good news is - the Spread has dropped from -13 to -11. If it goes to 10 - you probably still win and at least push - if it drops Under 10 Grab it!
@ SEA (-11.5) over STL ___________(Pending)
Seahawks:
WR / KR Kearse 4 TD, Avg 15.7 per. (Ques)
CB K.J. Wright 80 Tackles (OUT)
CB Walter Thurmond 31 Tackle, 1 Sack, 1 INT - Reactivated.
I like Seattle 6-1 at home vs Rams 2-5 on the Rd. But at -11.5 (just went up from -11) - they may need Wilson's go to guy and the Teams star Kick Return man to cover.
@ CAR -7 vs ATL________Report Released!
as I posted early in the week (DBT):
Panthers:
WR Steve Smith (OUT)
I do not like that game at all. CAR avg 30% Red Zone. ATL 65%.
Yes Panthers could crush a team with nothing to play for. But not betting on Rivera or Newton -7. Not betting Falcons either - (OFF) this game. Projected 24-23 ATL.
__________________________________________
ONLY 3 SYSTEM PICKS THIS WEEK. BUT THEY ARE GOOD ONES!
At least I think so.
PHI to Cover - 6.5 vs DAL
PHI / DAL OVER (53)
PROJECTED TOTAL (62) (DOME)
CHI / GB OVER (52)
**PROJECTED TOTAL (62)
**NOTE: The experts are all picking the Under
Not sure if I am missing Something on that Game.
These are Both Cold Weather Teams.
So I double checked the Weather.
Yes - Snow and Below Freezing. But here are some Examples
of Totals in Similar Game Conditions:
CHI @ CLE ( 73 )
17 / W-15
DAL @ CHI( 69 )
SNOW / 27 / W-15
DET @ PHI ( 54 )
SNOW/ 30 / W 7
MIA @ PIT ( 62 )
SNOW / 29/ W 12
THIS WEEK
CHI / GB OVER (52)
SNOW / 25 / W-15
9th and 10th Offenses Vs 26th
and 32nd Defenses
|
Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games on grass.
Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5
home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.
Please Click "Comment" (Below) if you have any thoughts on that Over.
|
http://www.happycapper.com/WK17NFLGAMES.html
Remember to Click on Team Name on the (Link Above) for Depth Charts and Updated Injuries Reports. There are several Games that Hinge on Final Injury Reports - Due Out Tomorrow.
The 3 System Picks Are (Not) Awaiting Injury Reports - Bet those Now before the Lines or Totals Change.
Also, Don't Forget, Lots of Handicapping Links and Videos on the Website.
http://www.happycapper.com/
"The 32 Teams" Page has Every Game Each Team has Played listed in Alphabetical Order. The Ranks on that page will be Updated Tomorrow.
http://www.happycapper.com/teams.html
OVER BLOWN INJURIES WEEK 17
CLAY
MATHEWS______________________________________
(11) Games 41 TK / 7.5 SACKS
MALUMBA
(2) Games 27 TK / 0
SACKS
COLLEGE:
2012 73 TK 2012
2011 51 TK 3.5 SACKS
MALUMBA NOT A BIG SACK THREAT. BUT WAY MORE TACKLES PER GAME THAN
MATHEWS
VON
MILLER__________________________________________
(9) Games 34 TK / 5 SACKS
Danny
Trevathan
(15) Games 123 TK / 2
SACKS
Nate Irving
(2) Games 38
TK / 0 SACKS
Shaun Phillips
SACK LEADER
(15) Games 34 TK / 10
SACKS
AS YOU CAN SEE - DEN IS DEEP AND WONT BE CRIPPLED BY MILLERS
LOSS
