POSTGAME
(Final) Pats 20 Bills 13 (winner) Bills +7.5
I'm happy to have the win. But - Bills should have won outright. Beat themselves all night. Defense dominated Pats. Brady was throwing F bombs on the sideline. But the offense really let the Bills D down. Run was working - keeping Brady off the field.
Then they kept trying to go deep, wasting series after series. 4 or 5 16 yd routes would have won this for them. Every pass attempt was for 30 or 40 yards. Taylor was double pumping and staring down receivers so long they were out of reach by the time he pulled the trigger. As I have said over and over again, most incomplete passes are thrown behind the receiver.
Don't blame Tyrod - Blame Greg Roman. He did pretty much exactly what I said they can not afford to do (pregame below).
[ "They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them" ]
If you want to beat the Pats you have to "Beat Brady" and "Become Brady". That means getting rid of the ball quickly.
BTW I mentioned the Pistol Offense (pregame below). Greg Roman was credited with bringing that to SF. He did not invent it - just stole it from Reno Nevada college coach Chris Ault. He needs to steal another bright idea cause he doesn't have any.
Even the Run plays tonight were ill conceived. Backs were running sideways half the night. The bootleg was wide open out of a 2 back set. They ran it once out of an empty backfield for a huge loss. Taylor and company are immensely talented. Too bad the offensive coordinator is not.
I'm really tired of seeing 25 year old kids look bad because somebody with a headset is overpaid and under skilled.
The good news - if there is any - is that "if" Taylor is OK, and "if" Rex fixes the Offensive play calling - Bills could go 10-6 and we could see a rematch in the NFC championship.
Like I said pregame - the secret is simple
"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.
Rex got it half right tonight.
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PREGAME
BUF +7.5 @NE
(Note: we locked in 7.5 at Stations Casino early - Line dropped to -7)
Projected NE 23 BUF 17
(I do think Bills have a chance to win outright tonight - more gut than brains though?)
Hopefully I'm a Bills fan for a good reason. I think I am - Great talent on Offense and a defense that was pretty damn good. Lack of offense can drain a defense. Hopefully with the offensive starters back and clicking - Bills defense won't be so worn out. If I were not a Bills fan I might have stayed off tonights game. NE dominates this Match up statistically.
I predicted that when Tyrod, McCoy, Williams and Watkins got healthy - they would go undefeated. They have so far 2-0. They do have as much talent as any team in the league. I just put $20 on them at 50-1 to win the Superbowl - why not - if they can get past the Pats - they are as good as the rest. This is the one game I did "not" expect them to win.
One Advantage
The Bills have is that Brady is without his go to Receiver Edelman and a cutback speed tailback in Lewis. Blount is great - but leaves the run game somewhat one denominational with just a power back and without a 2nd set of fresh legs. The patriots rely on the short pass game and are not deep In talent at running back. White and Boldin avg less than 3 yds per carry. They do "not" have a 2nd Dion Lewis to fill in.
Only problem here is that the Bills are playing the only team that probably deserves to be undefeated. With the possible exception of the Panthers. Pats have it all on Offense and Defense. The Match up shows that too. Brady has made a living - winning with whomever walks in the revolving door of players in New England. They win every category except Red Zone Defense. Even that has a "BUT" to it - Bills projected at just 33% in the red zone. They have a big play offense - but that wont be the secret to their success tonight if they pull off an upset.....
Cracking the Code
I discovered the secret to winning in the NFL a few years ago. Seahawks had it off and on, and Pats still do. We bet both to win Superbowls and they did. The secret is pretty simple really:
"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.
Defensive lines are too fast to allow time for plays to develop. Offensive lines can not hold off defensive lineman that long. Give Bill Walsh credit for designing the West Coast offense around that problem - long before I noticed it. What boggles my mind is why any offense would even attempt any other offensive strategy. Peyton would still be healthy and starting for the Broncos if they stuck to it. Kubiak is a Moron.
Remember When
The Niner's and Redskin's were unbeatable with the "Pistol" offense? Kaepernick will be selling cars soon and RG3 is holding a clipboard. Nothing lasts forever?
Here's my point...
[ Rex will need to Jam Receivers Off the Line and pressure Brady to win tonight. The only way to stop the quick pass is to keep receivers from getting to their marks. ]
Giants sacked Tom 3 times and almost beat them. Rex will need to establish a Run Game with McCoy and Williams to keep Brady off the field. Period! Do not abandon the run - even if they get down by a TD or two. Tyrod Taylor will also need to take what they give him with a short pass game. They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them. It will be all about first downs and getting to Brady. Rex knows a lot more about football than I do - let's hope it shows tonight.
Go Bills!
HEAD TO HEAD
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