SUPERBOWL BABY!

SUPER BOWL PICKS!

SYSTEM: BAL + 4 / UNDER 48
RICKS PICK: SF - 4 / UNDER 48

SYSTEM PICK- BAL+4 / UNDER 48  
BAL #2 RED ZONE DEF vs SF 21st RED ZONE OFF. SF WEAK RED ZONE DEF AT 28TH. KAP LOFTS THE BALL AND VULNERABLE TO PICKS vs 8TH RANKED BAL PASS DEF.  
PROJ SF 22 - BAL 21 (43 )UNDER - BOTH TEAMS STRONG DEF FIELD POS STATS.

RICK PICK- SF BY 7 
SF #1 OFF LINE VS BAL 27TH DEF LINE / SF #5 RUSH OFF VS BAL 22ND RUSH DEF.
BAL OFF STRUGGLED AGAINST PATS LAST WEEK. NE COULD NOT SCORE IN RED ZONE BUT CONTROLLED FIELD POS AND TIME OF POS FIRST HALF.  NINERS SHOULD DO THE SAME - BUT SCORE IN RED ZONE VS WEAK BAL RUSH DEF. 
PROJ SF 28-BAL 17  (45) UNDER

MATCH UP STATS (click to enlarge)

2 WINNING TICKETS! AFC NFC Playoffs

PLAYOFF RECORD 12-2 

Final Picks AFC NFC Playoffs

I know it gets a little crazy with all the cross bets in my last post. So, to keep it simple - Here are my Final Recommendations for this weekend. It is, in my opinion a (2) Bet Weekend - so here are the Two (3 team) Tickets I Think have the Best Chance to win. 

IF YOU CAN ONLY MAKE (1) BET

SF-4
OVER (49) - SF vs ATL
NE-7.5

WHY SF-4 / OVER: SF (5th) ranked Rush Offense should run on a weak (24th) ATL Rush Def and Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks) should penetrate the poor (24th) Offensive Line of ATL. These are Two Explosive Offenses that will not be contained. Thus the OVER.

WHY NE - 7.5: BAL (27th) Def Line and (22nd) Rush Def should open up the run for Ridley and (#1) Pats Rush Off. This will open up Pass Game for Brady. Brady will not Blink. Pats 20 INTs and +25 T/O Rato will be the difference. Pats only weaknesses are matched by Bal weaknesses - NE 19th Pass Def vs Bal 15th Pass Off and NE 21st Def F-Pos vs Bal 18th Off F-Pos.


IF YOU CAN MAKE (2) BETS TO COVER

ATL+4
BAL+7.5
UNDER (51.5) - NE vs BAL

WHY ATL+4: There are Intangibles in this game. Kaepernick is Cocky and lofts the ball vs 9th ranked ATL Pass Def with 20 INTs and a +13 T/O Ratio. So worth a cover at +4.

WHY BAL+7.5 / UNDER (51.5): My original forecast for the Pats game was 30 degrees with 20 mile an hour winds. Early this week - Some Jack Ass on NFL Channel updated that to a balmy 45. I was right the first time. Wind Chill of 20 Degrees and Gusts to 20. (wind is the under's best friend) Thus I am covering Baltimore +7.5 and the UNDER.

PROJECTED OUTCOMES:

SF BY 7 / OVER (49)
NE BY 7 UNDER (51.5)

Check out my posts below for more stats and detailed game summaries. 

BETTING STRATEGY AFC NFC CHAMPIONSHIPS

TICKET #1 
$100 to pay $625
(Early Line Pick Posted 1/4)
SF-3
OVER (48.5) - SF v ATL
NE-9.5

TICKET #2
$100 to pay $625 
ATL+4
NE -9
OVER (51.5) NE vs BAL Caution see weather below

TICKET #3
$40 to pay $480
ATL+4
BAL+9
OVER (48.5) - SF v ATL
UNDER (51.5) NE vs BAL


TOTAL BET: $240
POTENTIAL WIN $625
NET: $385 

TICKET #1 

(SF-3)
I grabbed the early line on the SF Game (-3). Still like that ticket at SF (-4).
A weak ATL Rush Def vs Kap and Gore and bad Offline vs Aldon Smith (19,5 Sacks) and a pocket passer in Ryan should allow (SF to win by 7).

(NE -9.5)
BAL 27TH Def Line and 22nd Rush Def should open up run for Ridley and in turn the Pass Game for Brady. Let's not assume that BAL is suddenly a dependable Play Off team. BAL was destroyed by DEN 34-17 in week 15 at Home. 50 / 50 they stink it up and get routed. The team may be as sick of the Ray Lewis' gangster preaching as we are after 3 weeks. 

SF vs ATL (OVER 48.5)
I like the over in the Dome - Niner's vs Falcon's.Got it at (48.5) but still like it at (49).

TICKET #2

(ATL +4)
Truth is these game lines could easily go either way. Kaepernick is Cocky and lofts the ball vs 9th ranked ATL Pass Def with 20 INTs and a +13 T/O Ratio.

(NE -9) 1/17 - Weather Update 30 / wind chill 20  Wind 20 mph! That was my original forecast - saw an update on TV and changed it. never listen to NFL Channel for weather. Dummies!
As confident as I feel about NE winning easily - Hard to count on Belicheck to cover 10. The raw Points Data predicts to a final score of around 28-21 / 28-23. If BAL has one good game left NE could only win by (7). HOWEVER, With the forecast change from 30 to a balmy 45 in NE - I like the Ravens even less. I just do not see NE Blinking and the game could be over by halftime. So, YOU MAKE THE CALL!  I am going to stick with (NE -9) using this ticket to just cover a potential 49er loss. 

NE vs BAL (OVER 51.5) Caution see weather above
I was going to take BAL and the UNDER but again do not see NE Blinking. Thought about adding the OVER SF vs ATL to this ticket - but that could kill both tickets bun the end of the first game. So, Gonna go with NE running it up 35-17 (52)  System calls the game at (55). Watch the line and grab it quick at it is moving up currently at (51.5)

TICKET #3


Just a cover ticket. In case games come within a FG. Added Over in SF/ATL and chaged to an UNDER in the BAL - because if they do cover that means they slowed down The Pats Offense. 
See the blogs below for more in dept info on this weeks games.

SYSTEM PICKS AFC NFC PLAY OFFS

SYSTEM

To Qualify as a System Pick a team must:
1. Win the Overall Match Up Rating by 60 + or as Dog by -35 or more (R)
2. Win the Offensive Line Match Up (OL)
  3. Preferably win the Filed Position Match Up (FP) 
4. Be Projected to cover the Spread (By).

FG								FG
%		BY	Line	R	OL	FP		%	BOOK	PRO	DIF
69%	San Fran	0	-3.5	8	23	9	At Atlanta	87%	48.5	50	1.5
83%	At NE	8	-9.5	94	2	5	Baltimore	91%	51	57	6.0

VIEW OUR FULL HEAD TO HEAD MATCH UPS
http://www.happycapper.com/NFC-AFC-MUPS.html

SF VS ATL

(SF) won the OL Off Line by a whopping (23) and FP F-pos by (9). But did not qualify in the Overall Rank Match Up winning by only (8).

(Projected Score) 25-25 SF by (0).

ATL lost the match up and did not qualify as a dog.
As a line pick - based strictly on totals ATL +3.5 not bad pick. 

OVER / UNDER

Weather: Dome (Good for Over)
Projected Total 25-25 = (50) Book Total (48.5)  Over 
SF has a horrible FG kicker so could go 24-21 – (45) Under

System: OFF: Pick   OFF: Ovr / Und

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NE VS BAL

(NE) Clearly dominated the Match Up. Out Ranking BAL by (94). But did not cover the spread - winning by (8). Line -9.5

*The projected score shows NE by (11) – NE 34 - BAL 23.

But the system averages that by the Avg “net win by” = (8)

(Projected Score) NE 34 - BAL 23

(Projected Win By ) NE by 8*

OVER / UNDER

WARNING: Weather 30 Degrees Wind 20-23 mph (Bad for OVER)
Only weakness NE is an improved (19^th) Pas Def vs (15^th) Pass Off BAL = push. NE (21^st) in Def F-pos vs  BAL (18^th) in Off  F-pos = push.

NE Avg PF 35 BAL PA 22 = NE 28

BAL PF 25 NE PA 21 = BAL 23

Projected Total NE 28 – BAL 23 = (51) Book Total (51) OFF!

System: OFF PICK  / OFF OVR / UND

See my Personal Picks (Below)

PICKS NFC AFC CHAMIONSHIPS

SF#6 (-3.5) @ ATL #8
# = Total Overall Rank out of 32 teams - Regular Season 
 

SF BY 7
ATL HORRIBLE OFF LINE AND RUSH DEF, SF WEAK RZ OFF AND DEF - ALSO BAD PLACE KICKER. BUT I LIKE 49ERs BY 7 DUE TO WEAK RUSH DEF VS GORE / KAP AND BAD OFF LINE VS ALDON SMITH 19.5 SACKs REG SEASON 

CAUTION - KAEPERNICK LOFTS THE BALL AND IS VULNERABLE TO ATL 10th RATED PASS DEF WITH 20 INTs and a T/O RATIO OF +13. A few picks could be just enough for ATL to hold them to 3 or upset them.  Also, SF 21st in Red Zone Offense. 

OVER (48.5)
YOU HAVE 2 GOOD PASS DEFs - BUT TOO GREAT OFFENSES. ATL 4TH PASS OFF AND SF 4TH RUSH OFF VS ATL 24TH RUSH DEF. SO, BOTH TEAMS WILL SCORE. SF MORE EXPLOSIVE - BUT - WEAK IN RED ZONE DEF. Like Over at 48.5 - but not if line goes over 50. Projecting  27-24 (51)

(H) NE #1 (-9.5) VS BAL #11

NE BY 10
PATs GREAT RZ OFF VS GREAT BAL RZ DEF - OFF WINS - WASH.  BUT BAL 27TH DEF LINE AND 22ND RUSH DEF SHOULD OPEN UP RIDLEY RUSHING AND THUS BRADY PASSING. NE 20 INTS AND +25 T/O RATION WILL BE DIFFERENCE. RAY LEWIS PREACHING TO THE CHOIR THIS WEEK. 

VIEW OUR FULL HEAD TO HEAD MATCH UPS
http://www.happycapper.com/NFC-AFC-MUPS.html



 

SEATTLE THREW IT AWAY - LITTERALLY!

Russell Wilson is a good Mobile QB. He is not Tom Brady and is not surrounded by 3 Pro Bowl quality Receivers like Atlanta. He wins games with his LEGS - NOT his ARM.
The SeaHawks ran (1) bootleg all day vs ATL.  It resulted in a TD.  Running around the backfield avoiding the rush is a safety net - NOT a game plan. 

Shame on Offensive Co-ordinator Darrell Bevell for losing a game they should have easily won.  Numerous RedZone visits produced nothing. If even one of those resulted in a TD - they win. As I stated in a blog post (below) on 1/7 - the formula that got them to the playoffs was BOOTLEG / RUN / OPTION / PASS. On the first series Wilson was wide open as he faked a bootleg after a hand off. You don't save the bootleg - you run it down their throats - like they did as Wilson scored 3 Rushing TDs vs the Bills. Same formula worked in a blow out vs Tampa. If it aint broke - DON'T fix it. The Bootleg opens the run for Lynch and the pass game - making potential defenders and pass rushers stay home. 

How do you fail to sustain drives with the NFLs #2 Offensive Line and one of the most talented teams in the league? Practice I guess - they left the winning formula on the sideline in the Redskins game too.  Failing to sustain drives also weakened the SEA defense - they were overworked and tired by the second quarter. 

Props to Seattle CB Sherman - he showed up as the premier defensive back in the league. Too bad the coaching staff did not.  

 See Our Blog (Below) from 1/7

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - THE EMPEROR'S NEW CLOTHES

2 WEEKS OF PLAYOFFS - 2 WINNING TICKETS

PLAY OFF RECORD 9-1 90%

DIVISIONAL 6-1 

W BAL +9.5

L UNDER DEN vs BAL

W SF -3

W SEA +2.5

W OVER SEA vs ATL

W NE -9.5
W UNDER NE vs HOU

WILD CARD  3-0

W UNDER GB vs MIN

W BAL -6.5

W SEA -2.5
   

REGULAR SEASON RECORD 61-15 80% 

PLAYOFF WINNING 
TICKETS!

 

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS PRE GAME SUMMARIES

TOP PICKS

BAL +9.5

UNDER DEN vs BAL

SF -3

SEA +2.5

OVER SEA vs ATL

NE -9.5 
UNDER NE vs HOU 

PRE-GAME SUMMARIES:

All Times PST
# = Total Overall Rank out of 32 teams - Regular Season



(H) DEN #1 (-9.5) VS BAL #9
Book Total 46
Projected: DEN (By 7) 24-17 (41)UNDER!
SAT 1:30 PM
HIGH 19 DEGREES / POSS SNOW

SYSTEM PICK:  UNDER / BAL+9.5
RICK PICK:  BAL+9.5/ UNDER 

KEY STATS

DEN 
Strength: Manning QB rating 102 vs Flacco 81 / Defense 52 sacks vs Bal 31. 
7-1 at Home.
Weakness: Weak Red Zone Defense. Absence of RB-McGehee and CB-Porter. Played Easy Season Schedule.
Injuries: RB McGehee. CB Tracy Porter

BAL 
Strength: Red Zone Defense ( 2nd).  Pumped up Ray Lewis Defense. 
Weakness: Def Line (27th)  / Off Fld-Pos (22nd) / Rush Def (18th)
Injuries: No Starters Out 

SUMMARY

UNDER
With the total set at (46) - the Over would really be about Manning lighting it up. Temps in the 20s. Manning was a Dome QB. Freezing cold combined with the good RZ Def of Bal vs Den w/out McGehee - sells me on the UNDER. The ball will be hard to catch in the cold and the field at that altitude should be a little icy - slowing down play. The wind (5mph) not a factor.



BAL +9.5
Denver's Weak RZ Def combined with Baltimore's Strong Red Zone Defense should keep it close. I "liked" BAL (+9.5) for the same reasons.  In a very cold, potentially run dominated game - I like Rice over Moreno who has not been challenged and may skate by again vs 18th ranked BAL Rush Def - but he is no McGehee and overrated in my opinion. CB Tracy Porter also out - was a game changer in the early season.  BUT! Dumerville and and Von Miller will give Flacco (35 sks) problems though vs Ravens 27th ranked Def Line and BAL has poor Off F-Pos stats - limiting their scoring opportunities, even vs a weak DEN RZ Def. Manning has only been sacked 21 times.  I like DEN (by 7) but not by 10. 

BRAIN FARTS:
1. Dumerville and Von Miller steal the show from BAL and Ray Lewis on Defense
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(H) SF #6 (-3) VS GB #14
Book Total 45
Projected: SF (By 3) 24-21 (45)PUSH
SAT 5 PM
50 / CLOUDY / LIGHT WIND

SYSTEM PICK:  SF (-3)
RICK PICK:  SF (-3)

KEY STATS

SF 
Strength: Off Line 1st,  4th Rated Rush Defense. 10th Pass Def. 6-1-1 at Home
Weakness: Weak Red Zone Offense and Def.  Horrible Place Kicker
Injuries: DE Justin Smith Back! No Starters Out 

GB 
Strength: Great Red Zone Offense. 7th Pass Def. Def 47 Sacks / 18 INTs. Clay Mathews!
Weakness: 25th Off Line. 24th Rush Offense. Rodgers Sacked 51 times vs Aldon Smith 19.5 Sacks. Horrible Place Kicker
 Injuries: No Starters Out

SUMMARY

SF -3
Offensive Lines win Games. That should be the difference here. SF Off line 1st. vs GB 25th.  That's why Rodgers has been sacked 51 times and GB is 24th Rushing (Grant is an elite runner with potential though)  - they will face a Niner team 4th in Rush Def.  Those stats so far spell blow out.  

But! GB is 3rd in Red Zone Off vs SF 28th in Red Zone Def with Jordy Nelson expected to play.  GB also near last in Red Zone Def though. Rodger's will not be able to establish Run Game and be forced to pass vs 10th ranked Rush Def and the #2 Sack Leader Aldon Smith - GB OFF Line 25th. So (SF by 7) My best guess - unless they knock out Kap.


Off the Ov/Und (projected Total  42)
Weather in the 50s no problem / no wind advisories. Both Teams near last in Red Zone Def. Both teams have horrible place kickers @ 69% and 63%. That could actually be good for the OVER as they may go for it on 4th downs. But both teams Top Ten Pass Defenses - usually bad for overs. If Niner's do shut down GB for reasons underlined  above - could could make it a one sided affair and keep the score down. 


BRAIN FARTS:
1. Wouldn't surprise me if Clay Mathews broke Kaepernick and Smith came in as B-up. 
2. I like Randy Moss to have a big game.
___________________________________ 


(H) ATL #8 (-2.5) VS SEA #2
Book Total 46
Projected: SEA (By 3) 27-24 (51) OVER!
SUN 10 AM
DOME

SYSTEM PICK:  SEA (+2.5) / OVER
RICK PICK:  SEA (+2.5) / OVER

KEY STATS

ATL 
Strength: Pass Off 4th. Strong Red Zone Off / Def. 4th Pass Off. +13 T/O ratio 
Weakness: Bad Off Line and Rush Def 
Injuries: SS W MOORE QUES - 75T 1 SK 4INT - WEAK BUP

SEA

Strength: 4th Red Zone and Pass Def. 5th Rush Def. 7th Rush Off. +13 T/O ratio 
Weakness: None - 5-5 on the Road
Injuries: DE Clemens IR / PK Hauscha replaced by Longwell similar stats

SUMMARY

SEA +2.5
ATL has the 4th rated Pass Off vs the 4th ranked Pass and Red Zone Def SEA. The Achilles heel for Falcons is Rush Def (24th)  vs a versatile and effective Rush attack of SEA (7th).  Unlike last week in WAS - SEA Def will excel vs a pocket passer and pro set run game. The key will be a balanced attack by SEA Off of Option / Pass Run / Bootleg. If Wilson tries to win it just passing and running around like Fran Tarkenton - they will be 3 and out and get behind quick vs a formidable ATL pass offense.  Hoping Carrol is smart enough to return to the game plan that got them here. They are the better team if they play to their strengths  (SEA by 3).

Over (46) 
Two Explosive Offenses  playing in a dome. Oddsmakers calling ATL by 3 - so neither team expected to be shut down or blown out. Both kickers good from 50 +. 
Projected Total( 51) 27-24 

___________________________________ 

(H) NE #3 (-9.5) VS HOU #4
Book Total 47.5
Projected: NE (By 10) 35-24 (59)<OFF
SUN 1:30 PM
52 SUNNY/ WIND 5-8

SYSTEM PICK:  NE -9.5 / OVER
RICK PICK:  NE -9.5

KEY STATS

NE 
Strength: Brady with Gronkowski back. #1, 2 Red Zone, Rush Off.  7th Rush Def.
T/O Ratio +25. Played one of the Hardest schedules in NFL this season.
Weakness: Pass Def 19th (improved).
Injuries: GronKowski Back! No Starters Out 

HOU 
Strength: #4 Rush Off
Weakness: Matt Schuab poor QB play. *Defense in Decline.
Played one of the weakest schedules in NFL this season.

*(PA 17 pgm thru wk-10 now 21 pgm)
Injuries: No Starters Out  

SUMMARY

NE BY 10
With Gronlowski back and NE healthier than ever - my first inclination was to take NE to cover by 10. But, in calculating the Over - I rounded the projection done to 31-24 (Pats by 8) -The numbers do not add up for the Pats to cover. Every game last week (Wild Card) went under 40. But this week features 4 - much better offenses. You have to respect the playoffs and a top 10 def of HOU though. So, if NE averages 35 and HOU only allows 21 - you gotta cut the Pats down to 31 - Right???? Maybe not? HOU lost the last 2 games by 12 vs IND and 17 vs MIN. This is NE with Gronkowski back! The actual system projection is 38-24 NE. With a +25 T/O Ratio for NE vs Schaub who seems to have lost his arm and confidence. If Pats only weakness is Pass Def and Schuab can't pass... they could route them. I'm shaking my head and making that Lewis Black lip noise.  Enough already - NE by 10!

OVER
I like the OVER. But can't count on Schaub to keep up his end of that score. He has been pathetic passing the 2nd half of the season into the playoffs. NE does allow an average of 21 pts per game though and nets 35 on Offense. HOU PA 24 PF 26.  So the net on this game is (51) Neither Pass Def is spectacular at 19th and 14th. The Rush Def's are both Top 10 - but so  are the Rush Off's. When a Top offense met a Top Def this year - the offense won and scored.

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