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Saturday, December 31, 2016
Sunday, December 25, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 16 XMAS DAY
@PIT-5.5 vs BAL (46)
Projected PIT 37-13
PIT wins Rush and Pass Offense Big!
Raven's can't Run on them = 3&Outs = Route.
System Pick $50 PIT -5.5
HEAD TO HEAD
Projected PIT 37-13
PIT wins Rush and Pass Offense Big!
Raven's can't Run on them = 3&Outs = Route.
System Pick $50 PIT -5.5
HEAD TO HEAD
NFL PICKS WEEK 16 RECAP 2016
DAMN I KNEW IT!
My plan at the beginning of the week was to lay off, lay low, and not bet a single game. Sometimes good stats can't compensate for bad lines and bad match-ups. Let the leaders take the hit. Don Anthony 2-1 stayed at 64%, but the T2s (sure enough) dropped from 59% to 57%*.
If I had laid off - we would be alone in 2nd at 59%. Instead, gave away 3 losses - Dropped 2% and lost $100. This after "I" predicted this as a "bad" week to bet!
Lesson learned - Trust your Gut! The Good news - we played conservative and only bet 3 games - not 8! Still T2 57% (and we're free!).
BTW, if you're new to handicapping records - the link below lists the top pros in Vegas - that charge for picks. The standard is 52.9% in order to cover the vig (sportsbook fees) and make money. So, we are still way ahead of the game...
* http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/
We did make some great calls - predicting that JAX could win. Cleveland would get 1st win, and SF over LA. Also the bank is still up - so we can afford a $100 bet each of the coming weeks.1, 3 team parlay pays 6-1 and will more than double our money on the year
My plan at the beginning of the week was to lay off, lay low, and not bet a single game. Sometimes good stats can't compensate for bad lines and bad match-ups. Let the leaders take the hit. Don Anthony 2-1 stayed at 64%, but the T2s (sure enough) dropped from 59% to 57%*.
If I had laid off - we would be alone in 2nd at 59%. Instead, gave away 3 losses - Dropped 2% and lost $100. This after "I" predicted this as a "bad" week to bet!
Lesson learned - Trust your Gut! The Good news - we played conservative and only bet 3 games - not 8! Still T2 57% (and we're free!).
BTW, if you're new to handicapping records - the link below lists the top pros in Vegas - that charge for picks. The standard is 52.9% in order to cover the vig (sportsbook fees) and make money. So, we are still way ahead of the game...
* http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/
We did make some great calls - predicting that JAX could win. Cleveland would get 1st win, and SF over LA. Also the bank is still up - so we can afford a $100 bet each of the coming weeks.1, 3 team parlay pays 6-1 and will more than double our money on the year
Thursday, December 22, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 16 2016
ALERT!
12 SATURDAY GAMES!
Books Clean Up this week?
I predict the books clean up this week. Way too many games that could go either way, or where the spread turned a good pick bad. I was going to take the week off - but found 3 I feel good about.
Update -Thursday Night
Books took all the early money! I do not trust the stats or projections much this week vs really tough games and spreads. Here's our final bank bets..
BANK BETS
SNAPSHOT
12 SATURDAY GAMES!
Books Clean Up this week?
I predict the books clean up this week. Way too many games that could go either way, or where the spread turned a good pick bad. I was going to take the week off - but found 3 I feel good about.
Update -Thursday Night
Books took all the early money! I do not trust the stats or projections much this week vs really tough games and spreads. Here's our final bank bets..
BANK BETS
SNAPSHOT
Monday, December 19, 2016
WEEK 15 RECAP 8-1
8-1 vs NFL SPREAD!
BANK UP to $650!
59% on the Season
Only loss was BAL -5.5
Flacco up by 14 - threw a pic inside the Eagles Red Zone.
Eagles went for 2 points after two Quick TDs and lost by 1.
BANK UP to $650!
59% on the Season
Only loss was BAL -5.5
Flacco up by 14 - threw a pic inside the Eagles Red Zone.
Eagles went for 2 points after two Quick TDs and lost by 1.
WEEK 15 MONDAY NIGHT 2016
@WAS -7 vs CAR (51)
Projected WAS 37-28
Off this Game
Can't count on Cousins or Panthers. CAR tends to comeback late and keep high scoring games close. CAR +7 and Over best guess?
However, the System has called Monday Night much better than I and likes the Skins to Cover?
Barely?
Head to Head
Projected WAS 37-28
Off this Game
Can't count on Cousins or Panthers. CAR tends to comeback late and keep high scoring games close. CAR +7 and Over best guess?
However, the System has called Monday Night much better than I and likes the Skins to Cover?
Barely?
Head to Head
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Monday, December 12, 2016
WEEK 14 MONDAY NIGHT 2016
@NE-6.5 vs BAL (45.5)
Projected NE 24-14 (38)
Off this game, but here's our preview:
PATRIOTS
I liked Ravens at first, but BAL Pass defense is 24th? Pats were bad in Red Zone without Gronk vs LA (only projected at 45% tonight). Amendola also out, but mainly a return specialist. Look for a full dose of Blount and swing passes to White. Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell are still valid targets with more reps in practice now that Gronk is gone for the yr.
RAVENS
Ravens lose on Rush Defense but projected at 79% in the Red Zone tonight. Pita, Wallace and Smith have serious game. If they try to Run 1st - game over. They lose the Rush Offensive Match Up. But, if Ravens Pass 1st to set up the Run, they could in outright.
TOTAL
Coin toss: Up to the Ravens Offensive Coordinators calls...
If Ravens try to Run First and Flacco is under pressure - UNDER.
If Ravens Pass First to set up Run - OVER.
HEAD TO HEAD
Projected NE 24-14 (38)
Off this game, but here's our preview:
PATRIOTS
I liked Ravens at first, but BAL Pass defense is 24th? Pats were bad in Red Zone without Gronk vs LA (only projected at 45% tonight). Amendola also out, but mainly a return specialist. Look for a full dose of Blount and swing passes to White. Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell are still valid targets with more reps in practice now that Gronk is gone for the yr.
RAVENS
Ravens lose on Rush Defense but projected at 79% in the Red Zone tonight. Pita, Wallace and Smith have serious game. If they try to Run 1st - game over. They lose the Rush Offensive Match Up. But, if Ravens Pass 1st to set up the Run, they could in outright.
TOTAL
Coin toss: Up to the Ravens Offensive Coordinators calls...
If Ravens try to Run First and Flacco is under pressure - UNDER.
If Ravens Pass First to set up Run - OVER.
HEAD TO HEAD
Sunday, December 11, 2016
Friday, December 9, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 14 2016
I've got 2 System Picks I feel solid about. Both Qualify Straight up!.
$50 2 Team Parlay
ARI-1.5 @MIA
ATL-6 @LA
3 more I like enough to add as System Picks
$50 3 Team Parlay
CIN-5.5 @CLE
@BUF+3 vs PIT
DAL-3 @NYG
Added: Under MIN/JAC and Over PHI/WAS
SNAPSHOT
HEAD TO HEAD
$50 2 Team Parlay
ARI-1.5 @MIA
ATL-6 @LA
3 more I like enough to add as System Picks
$50 3 Team Parlay
CIN-5.5 @CLE
@BUF+3 vs PIT
DAL-3 @NYG
Added: Under MIN/JAC and Over PHI/WAS
SNAPSHOT
HEAD TO HEAD
Thursday, December 8, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 14 THRUSDAY NIGHT
@KC-3 vs OAK (46)
Projected OAK 32-27 (59)
This game is good and bad. Previous post - Stay off 2 hot teams, but look for Dog projected to Win getting points. This game features both? KC great Pass Rush, but Carr only avg 1 per game? OAK must pass 1st to set up run. KC just the opposite.
Projected OAK 32-27 (59)
This game is good and bad. Previous post - Stay off 2 hot teams, but look for Dog projected to Win getting points. This game features both? KC great Pass Rush, but Carr only avg 1 per game? OAK must pass 1st to set up run. KC just the opposite.
NFL PICKS WEEK 13 RECAP
The system made a great call on Ravens routing Miami and Tampa over SD!
2 LESSONS
1. Gut + Stats
When I look at the the list of games at the beginning of the week - and make some gut picks - then check them against the head to head stats - we do better. This week we had a few game featuring 2 hot teams - stay away from those.
We are looking for:
A. Lopsided Wins
B. Teams projected to win that are getting points.
2. 2 Team Parlays
We hit 1 - 4 teamer, but 2 Teamers are just easier to win on a consistent basis, and pay enough at 2.5 -1 to make a profit.
2 LESSONS
1. Gut + Stats
When I look at the the list of games at the beginning of the week - and make some gut picks - then check them against the head to head stats - we do better. This week we had a few game featuring 2 hot teams - stay away from those.
We are looking for:
A. Lopsided Wins
B. Teams projected to win that are getting points.
2. 2 Team Parlays
We hit 1 - 4 teamer, but 2 Teamers are just easier to win on a consistent basis, and pay enough at 2.5 -1 to make a profit.
Monday, December 5, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 13 MONDAY NIGHT
IND -1.5 @ NYJ (48.5)
Projected NYJ 23-20 (43)
Defensive Injuries have me (OFF) off this game.
Two struggling offenses, Only the Jets win any Offensive math up + 14 on Rush Offense. So, it sets up as a nice 2 Team with Under and the Jets. However, Colts have OLB Mathis and SS Geathers (OUT). The Jets have a litany of Defensive injuries that could not only take it OVER with the Colts injuries, But possibly allow Colts to tear into the Jets 2nd string defense.
If I did bet it - It would be a 2 team Teaser with Jets and the Over
HEAD TO HEAD
Projected NYJ 23-20 (43)
Defensive Injuries have me (OFF) off this game.
Two struggling offenses, Only the Jets win any Offensive math up + 14 on Rush Offense. So, it sets up as a nice 2 Team with Under and the Jets. However, Colts have OLB Mathis and SS Geathers (OUT). The Jets have a litany of Defensive injuries that could not only take it OVER with the Colts injuries, But possibly allow Colts to tear into the Jets 2nd string defense.
If I did bet it - It would be a 2 team Teaser with Jets and the Over
HEAD TO HEAD
Saturday, December 3, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 13 2016
SNAPSHOT
HEAD TO HEAD (PART 1)
HEAD TO HEAD (PART 2)
Note:
Dallas first play from scrimmage was a 12 yd run. Than they kept trying to pass and failed.
System called it that they could run easy and needed to run in ordeer to set up the pass.
Too bad they didn't know that. Cowboys would have covered easy and the total would have gone over.
Thursday, December 1, 2016
NFL PICKS WEEK 13 THURSDAY NIGHT
DAL-3 @MIN (44)
Projected DAL 30-20
Cowboys shut down Vikings Run Game giving them 3&Outs.
Elliot Runs all over them. This sets up the pass for DAL.
Cowboys Weak Pass Defense lets MIN stay in it and takes it Over the Total.
System Pick DAL/Over
Bet $50 2 Team Parlay DAL/Over
HEAD TO HEAD
Note:
Full Player stats on other games SAT
Projected DAL 30-20
Cowboys shut down Vikings Run Game giving them 3&Outs.
Elliot Runs all over them. This sets up the pass for DAL.
Cowboys Weak Pass Defense lets MIN stay in it and takes it Over the Total.
System Pick DAL/Over
Bet $50 2 Team Parlay DAL/Over
HEAD TO HEAD
Note:
Full Player stats on other games SAT
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