THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 11 2013

POST GAME:
Colts lucky to come away with win. Not impressed. Luck - bad footwork 1st half. Titans  pressured QB and ran on them at will - even in 4th Quarter.  Strength of Schedule proved a valuable stat - Adjusted Ranks - TEN 21 / IND 22. Titans played inspired ball. Without the Fumble - Titans win. Fitzgerald excellent Back up. Donald Brown should start over Richardson. Colts can not start late and win in Playoffs. Proceed with Caution regarding them. IND On my (OFF) list with CIN and BAL. 
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IND -3 @ TEN  (42.5)
View Matchup:
http://www.happycapper.com/ThuW10.html

The Smart money will stay OFF this one. Except maybe the UNDER.
System OFF / Rick OFF / Leaning - IND BY 3 / UNDER 

COLTS

PRO
IND Wins Rush Off and Red Zone Off.  Colts Motivated after loss to STL & Locker is Out -TEN.
The Run Game vs 28th Rush Def of TEN should open up the Pass for Luck - Great Red Zone Off and TEN Week Red Zone Def. T.Y. Hilton scored 3 TDs vs HOU - and STL beat them with Long Bombs, Punts and Fumble Returns - Fluke?  

CON
IND Does not Dominate the Matchup - Winning only one Category (Rush Off) by 10 or more.  
Without Reggie Wayne - Defenses could Key on HIlton - which a Smart coach like Fischer and the (5th) Ranked TEN Def would do. IND Adjusted Rank is actually -1 to TEN.

TITANS

PRO 

TEN will be Motivated to Regain Respect after loss to Win-less JAC Especially Playing @ Home this week (+3). Fitzgerald has played well as a Backup and will be comfortable with the Offense.  The (5th) Ranked Pass Def should slow down Luck without Reggie Wayne. TEN Adjusted Rank is 1 Better than IND. +4 T/O Ratio. IND +3.

CON
TEN Adjusted Rank is the Same as JAC. Lousy Punter (avg 44) wont get them out of Trouble. Twice the Penalty Yds per game of IND. Weak Rush Def could allow Colts to sustain long - Time Consuming Drives and Red Zone Def allows 65% TDs in Red Zone.. 

OVER / UNDER 
Everything above paints a game Dominated by the IND Run Game and a Solid TEN Pass Def keeping Luck form running it up. UNDER!

PROHIBITIVE PICK:

IND BY 3 / UNDER