SYSTEM CALLED IT!
SEA +2.5!
Called SEA BY 14
FINAL 43-8 SEA
Be Careful Driving Home. Lot's of Pissed off, Drunk White People (Denver fans) on the Road. I'm White - just kidding.
Oh Yeah - Pappa John Can Kiss My Ass!
For More SuperBowl Posts and Play by Play
Go Here: http://nflplaybyplay.blogspot.com/2014/01/live-superbowl-play-by-play.html
Starts Today 630 ET / 330 PST
Comments Welcome!
Alert! - Easy Money!
Put $30 on Jordan Spieth - the Next 3 Tourneys.
Odds should be 20 or 30-1
$90 Should Pay Between $600 and $900.
Update: Manning wins MVP and Offensive Player of the Year. Really? Sherman off the Hook for the Duck comment. Pressure is back on Peyton Now.
NFL Late Bets
The Line in Vegas is still frozen @ Denver -2.5. Offshore Odds range between -1 and -2.5.
So, it looks like pulling the trigger 2 weeks ago at Seattle +2.5 worked out O.K.
Although the trend toward Denver could go to -3, after Sherman shot his mouth off about Peyton throwing ducks
The Over / Under has risen back to (48) (good weather)
Covers has the public 66% Denver and 34% Seattle.
They're Experts are 73/27 Denver.
Our System: Calls it at 31-17 Seattle (48)
The Sharps like Seattle getting 2.5
The majority of money is supposed to come in tonight and tomorrow morning.
Lines to bet should be wrapped around the sportsbooks in the morning.
If you're trying to get a late bet in - Remember the Kiosks - they may save you some time.
Weather
The weather looks to be less of a factor than expected.
Rain: 23%
Temp: 43
Wind: 4
The only weather system in the area is well south of the stadium.
Best SuperBowl Prop Bet!
You can't parlay prop bets - so, they are mostly long shots that do not pay that well. However. I was looking at one with great Odds.
Call the Individual Scores
The odds for calling the final score of either team range from 10-1 to 200-1
Don't bet the rent money - but if you're gonna bet props - I like those Odds.
Unfortunately the odds on the individual scores projected by the System:
SEA 31-17 or 28-17 don't pay much. That is the hook by the way. Common scores pay low.
But, your best bet is probably $5 each on 10 different scores for just one team. Seattle has a good defense - so some of the odd Bronco totals could pay off. If you hit a 10-1, at least you get your money back.
$2 Prop bets also make nice door prizes for your SuperBowl party guests.
Keeps the ladies interested. No insult intended to the ladies - a lot of them are knowledgeable fans these days.
Fun Game for your SuperBowl Party
To keep everyone involved -Come up with some categories for Types of Commercials.
You know, Car, Soda, Insurance etc.
Before each commercial break - each player calls what kind of commercial is next.
Each player in for that upcoming commercial break - throws in a buck.
We had a blast playing that last year.
Also gives your guests something to do while your watching 6 hours of pregame.
I'll be Calling the end of the PGA Waste Management - before the game.
Won bank on Kyle Stanley 2 years ago - was better than the game that year
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/
Free NFL Handicapping Forum (Click Comments to Post. No Sign Up Needed)
Friday, January 31, 2014
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
SUPERBOWL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP 2013
SYSTEM CALLED IT!
SEA +2.5!
Called SEA BY 14
FINAL 43-8 SEA
Be Careful Driving Home. Lot's of Pissed off, Drunk White People (Denver fans) on the Road. I'm White - just kidding.
Oh Yeah - Pappa John Can Kiss My Ass!
Party in the Desert!
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com
If you think golf is boring (Which it is) - Tune into Golf Channel at Noon or for the replay again at night. Golf - in a stadium, Boos and cheers encouraged. Fun to watch.
(latest) Love Sherman - But Shut up!
He was quoted as saying Manning throws ducks. Peyton agreed he throws ducks and is proud of all the ones hes thrown for TDs. Never seen baiting a veteran as a smart He also put additional; pressure on himself to perform by saying that. It's the only things he's done to hurt the team so far. But Really stupid. The line has been frozen at Broncos -2.5 for weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if Sherman's bonehead comment moves it to -3 Denver. Other than that news.They are running out of things to talk about on NFL Network. Ready for the Game!
NFL Media Day
http://stateoftherock.blogspot.com/2014/01/nfl-media-day.html
More on Richard Sherman:
http://stateoftherock.blogspot.com/2014/01/who-is-richard-sherman.html
Fox Sports reporter Erin Andrews said she wasn't upset, frightened or threatened during her postgame interview with Richard Sherman that went viral on the internet.
Matter-of-fact, she loved it.
“You expect these guys to play like maniacs and animals for 60 minutes,” Erin Andrews told USA Today's For the Win. “And then 90 seconds after he makes a career-defining, game-changing play, I’m gonna be mad because he’s not giving me a cliché answer, ‘That’s what Seahawks football is all about and that’s what we came to do and we practice for those situations.’ No you don’t. That was awesome. That was so awesome. And I loved it.”
SuperBowl Matchup Online Now:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK21NFLGAMES.html
SEA + 2.5 vs DEN (48) (47.5)
Projected SEA 31-17
Side: Seattle (Now @ +2.5) 1/24
Spread: 1/23 8:49 Pm - Line holding Denver -2.5 Across the Board all Books.
Final: With Moreno Limited and Harvin Full Practice - as Public becomes more educated - I think Line could swing back toward SEA. Taking +2.5 Now.
Spread has been rising - so no Hurry. Public and Experts Loves Denver. Could go to DEN -3 or -3.5 - may have a chance to Buy SEA there at +140 or +150. If it drops back to 2 - Buy Seattle while they are still a Dog!
Follow the Line Moves Here: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/2/
Total: (47.5) Under (Now @ 47.5) 1/24
Final: So Safe bet if OFF and just SEA +2.5. Wanted a 2 Team - so took a chance on the Under. Two Defenses Playing Well. SEA should shut down Manning in the Red Zone. Hoping for 1 less FG or a FG in place of a TD - to Total 28-17 ? (45/44).
The system Projected final score at 28-21 Seattle. I took 4 points off each team for weather and Travel = 24-17. I added 7 to Seattle for the Return of Harvin = 31-17 Seattle.
Either way, the Total Falls Right at the Book (48).
Denver.
Manning had a Field Day against a Non Existent Patriots Defense that gave him enough Mulligans to win a Masters. They were 2 of 6, 33% in the Red Zone and Won Easily. The Broncos also choked 3 times inside the 30 for a Total of 6 points vs SD. While everyone is complimenting the Emperors new clothes - I see the Broncos for what they really are. A Good Offense with a Weak Defense. The Seahawks are a Decent Offense with a Great Defense. You do the Math. I may be wrong - but I expect the Seahawks to manhandle Denver, and with Harvin back - win easily. That would at least limit the number of Papa John's commercials we are forced to endure over the next few months. So, for all minimum wage workers and Pizza Deliver people everywhere "Go Seahawks!
Seattle.
The Seahawks are a Younger, Faster team. They will need to be a smarter team to take home the Lombardi Trophy. That is something they were Not last year. As I have said all year - they need to stay Vertical. Wilson can Not do his imitation of Fran Tarkenton - running around the backfield. That cost them the chance last year. If Carrol is smart enough to put them game in Lynches hands vs the 23rd Ranked Denver Rush Defense - they will keep Manning off the field. The Defense can handle a small does of Manning easily. They can not afford 3 and Outs on Offense that Give Manning 3 or 4 Drives per Quarter. They should use Harvin sparingly. Not every other play. Otherwise the Denver D will key on him and Pick Wilson. They have a nice Arsenal of Receivers and need to spread it around. A combination of Runs, Short passes, Play Action and Vertical Boots will Seal an Easy Win for the Hawks. Anything else and you can expect to see Papa John's commercials haunting your every waking moment for a year.
SEA +2.5!
Called SEA BY 14
FINAL 43-8 SEA
Be Careful Driving Home. Lot's of Pissed off, Drunk White People (Denver fans) on the Road. I'm White - just kidding.
Oh Yeah - Pappa John Can Kiss My Ass!
Party in the Desert!
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com
If you think golf is boring (Which it is) - Tune into Golf Channel at Noon or for the replay again at night. Golf - in a stadium, Boos and cheers encouraged. Fun to watch.
(latest) Love Sherman - But Shut up!
He was quoted as saying Manning throws ducks. Peyton agreed he throws ducks and is proud of all the ones hes thrown for TDs. Never seen baiting a veteran as a smart He also put additional; pressure on himself to perform by saying that. It's the only things he's done to hurt the team so far. But Really stupid. The line has been frozen at Broncos -2.5 for weeks. Wouldn't be surprised if Sherman's bonehead comment moves it to -3 Denver. Other than that news.They are running out of things to talk about on NFL Network. Ready for the Game!
NFL Media Day
http://stateoftherock.blogspot.com/2014/01/nfl-media-day.html
http://stateoftherock.blogspot.com/2014/01/who-is-richard-sherman.html
Fox Sports reporter Erin Andrews said she wasn't upset, frightened or threatened during her postgame interview with Richard Sherman that went viral on the internet.
Matter-of-fact, she loved it.
“You expect these guys to play like maniacs and animals for 60 minutes,” Erin Andrews told USA Today's For the Win. “And then 90 seconds after he makes a career-defining, game-changing play, I’m gonna be mad because he’s not giving me a cliché answer, ‘That’s what Seahawks football is all about and that’s what we came to do and we practice for those situations.’ No you don’t. That was awesome. That was so awesome. And I loved it.”
SuperBowl Matchup Online Now:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK21NFLGAMES.html
SEA + 2.5 vs DEN (48) (47.5)
Projected SEA 31-17
Side: Seattle (Now @ +2.5) 1/24
Spread: 1/23 8:49 Pm - Line holding Denver -2.5 Across the Board all Books.
Final: With Moreno Limited and Harvin Full Practice - as Public becomes more educated - I think Line could swing back toward SEA. Taking +2.5 Now.
Spread has been rising - so no Hurry. Public and Experts Loves Denver. Could go to DEN -3 or -3.5 - may have a chance to Buy SEA there at +140 or +150. If it drops back to 2 - Buy Seattle while they are still a Dog!
Follow the Line Moves Here: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/2/
Total: (47.5) Under (Now @ 47.5) 1/24
Final: So Safe bet if OFF and just SEA +2.5. Wanted a 2 Team - so took a chance on the Under. Two Defenses Playing Well. SEA should shut down Manning in the Red Zone. Hoping for 1 less FG or a FG in place of a TD - to Total 28-17 ? (45/44).
The system Projected final score at 28-21 Seattle. I took 4 points off each team for weather and Travel = 24-17. I added 7 to Seattle for the Return of Harvin = 31-17 Seattle.
Either way, the Total Falls Right at the Book (48).
Denver.
Manning had a Field Day against a Non Existent Patriots Defense that gave him enough Mulligans to win a Masters. They were 2 of 6, 33% in the Red Zone and Won Easily. The Broncos also choked 3 times inside the 30 for a Total of 6 points vs SD. While everyone is complimenting the Emperors new clothes - I see the Broncos for what they really are. A Good Offense with a Weak Defense. The Seahawks are a Decent Offense with a Great Defense. You do the Math. I may be wrong - but I expect the Seahawks to manhandle Denver, and with Harvin back - win easily. That would at least limit the number of Papa John's commercials we are forced to endure over the next few months. So, for all minimum wage workers and Pizza Deliver people everywhere "Go Seahawks!
Seattle.
The Seahawks are a Younger, Faster team. They will need to be a smarter team to take home the Lombardi Trophy. That is something they were Not last year. As I have said all year - they need to stay Vertical. Wilson can Not do his imitation of Fran Tarkenton - running around the backfield. That cost them the chance last year. If Carrol is smart enough to put them game in Lynches hands vs the 23rd Ranked Denver Rush Defense - they will keep Manning off the field. The Defense can handle a small does of Manning easily. They can not afford 3 and Outs on Offense that Give Manning 3 or 4 Drives per Quarter. They should use Harvin sparingly. Not every other play. Otherwise the Denver D will key on him and Pick Wilson. They have a nice Arsenal of Receivers and need to spread it around. A combination of Runs, Short passes, Play Action and Vertical Boots will Seal an Easy Win for the Hawks. Anything else and you can expect to see Papa John's commercials haunting your every waking moment for a year.
Michelle Obama Trumps Richard Sherman
Coolest First Lady "Ever!
Take a Lesson Richard. She Blew it Up Without Scaring Anyone.
Except Maybe the RNC.
Take a Lesson Richard. She Blew it Up Without Scaring Anyone.
Except Maybe the RNC.
HANDICAPPING RESULTS NFL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS 2013
System Called Winner and Exact Score in Seattle
Called Combined Total of Both Games Within 1 Point
System Season Total 71-34 68%
Playoffs 8-3 73%
Results:
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk202013.html
A Farewell to Arms
The Excitement of the Seattle Game was a Much Needed Boost after a Lack Luster showing by New England.
New England.
Rumors of Patriot Defensive Injuries effecting their ability to Contain Manning proved True. However, the Blame for the Loss was Mainly due to a Flawed Game plan by Belichick. Sitting Blount for the rest of the Game after just 5 Carries was Pathological at Best. Abandoning the Run was a Fatal Error. Even if Deep passes to Dobson had gone for TDs - the ball would have been Right back in Manning Hands for an easy score. The only way to have prevented that would have been to keep him off the field with long sustained drives. If they had given Blount 5 or 6 more carries - they would have achieved exactly that. Perhaps Belichick is ready to explore other pursuits - like Retirement and yelling at kids to get off his lawn.
Tom Brady
He looks like he is phoning it sometimes. The only time he seems comfortable with even the Prospect of taking a hit - is when he is under his centers ass on a Sneak. Whenever a Pass Rusher is even close to hitting him - he calls time out and assumes the Fetal Position. But, with all the concussions this year - can you blame him? Maybe he just wants to remember his own name when his kids are old enough speak. He is still the most accomplished and Effective QB in the League. I also give him credit for taking a hit and running one in for a TD. He has a right to be pissed about now. They finally had a Running back that would allow him to mix it up and take over a game. But once Belichick abandoned the run - the Denver defense had his Number. If he strangles Bill in his sleep this week - it's justifiable Homicide. Hide the pillows Bill.
SF
The Niners should have Fallen to the Panthers. But, Lack of Offense on the part of Carolina and Rivera's ineptitude - allowed them to see another week of Playoff Action. The Seahawks did not afford them that Luxury.
Colin Kaepernick
Simply stated - someone needs to teach Kaeperick how to Throw a Football. If you have ever palmed a wet football and slung it - you are familiar with his throwing style. You almost have to wonder if human fingers or Horse Hooves are releasing those Knuckle balls. He has enough heat on the ball to get it there half the time. The other half of the time is why he'll be watching the Superbowl on TV. As Funny as that sounds - I'm serious. One thing this league really needs is decent QB coaches. Cant name one at this Time. Haven't seen one since Bill Walsh. Kap has great talent and speed. That Pistol Offense he ran in college really stunted his growth from a throwing standpoint. Teach him how to Throw a Football and he will be unstoppable.
Called Combined Total of Both Games Within 1 Point
System Season Total 71-34 68%
Playoffs 8-3 73%
Results:
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk202013.html
A Farewell to Arms
The Excitement of the Seattle Game was a Much Needed Boost after a Lack Luster showing by New England.
New England.
Rumors of Patriot Defensive Injuries effecting their ability to Contain Manning proved True. However, the Blame for the Loss was Mainly due to a Flawed Game plan by Belichick. Sitting Blount for the rest of the Game after just 5 Carries was Pathological at Best. Abandoning the Run was a Fatal Error. Even if Deep passes to Dobson had gone for TDs - the ball would have been Right back in Manning Hands for an easy score. The only way to have prevented that would have been to keep him off the field with long sustained drives. If they had given Blount 5 or 6 more carries - they would have achieved exactly that. Perhaps Belichick is ready to explore other pursuits - like Retirement and yelling at kids to get off his lawn.
Tom Brady
He looks like he is phoning it sometimes. The only time he seems comfortable with even the Prospect of taking a hit - is when he is under his centers ass on a Sneak. Whenever a Pass Rusher is even close to hitting him - he calls time out and assumes the Fetal Position. But, with all the concussions this year - can you blame him? Maybe he just wants to remember his own name when his kids are old enough speak. He is still the most accomplished and Effective QB in the League. I also give him credit for taking a hit and running one in for a TD. He has a right to be pissed about now. They finally had a Running back that would allow him to mix it up and take over a game. But once Belichick abandoned the run - the Denver defense had his Number. If he strangles Bill in his sleep this week - it's justifiable Homicide. Hide the pillows Bill.
SF
The Niners should have Fallen to the Panthers. But, Lack of Offense on the part of Carolina and Rivera's ineptitude - allowed them to see another week of Playoff Action. The Seahawks did not afford them that Luxury.
Colin Kaepernick
Simply stated - someone needs to teach Kaeperick how to Throw a Football. If you have ever palmed a wet football and slung it - you are familiar with his throwing style. You almost have to wonder if human fingers or Horse Hooves are releasing those Knuckle balls. He has enough heat on the ball to get it there half the time. The other half of the time is why he'll be watching the Superbowl on TV. As Funny as that sounds - I'm serious. One thing this league really needs is decent QB coaches. Cant name one at this Time. Haven't seen one since Bill Walsh. Kap has great talent and speed. That Pistol Offense he ran in college really stunted his growth from a throwing standpoint. Teach him how to Throw a Football and he will be unstoppable.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
NFL Conference Championships Head to Head Matchups
NFC
SYSTEM CALLED WINNER AND EXACT FINAL SCORE!
FINAL SEATTLE 23 17
(WIN)Side: (SEA NOW @ -3)
As Predicted - Sherman Played a Role!
Post game interview was Hilarious! Guess Crabtree was talking smack with Sherman during the game. Sherman Violent Verbal rebuttal post-game. Scared the crap out of Female interviewer - Erin Andrews- "Back over to you Joe." LOL
_______________________________
AFC
SYSTEM CALLED TOTAL (41) WITHIN 1 POINT
FINAL DEN 26-16 TOTAL (42)
(Loss) Side: (NE NOW @ +5)
Belichick Blows it!
Blount Only 5 carries!!!!
Sure they stopped him on the 1st 5. But you don't sit a guy who ran for 166 yards and 4 TDs last week. Blount 0 carries 2nd half. Belichick is an IDIOT!
Belichick Played Manning's Game - Manning Won.
Manning wins Shoot Out! Belichick should be Tarred and Feathered when he lands in Foxborough!
Blount no complaints. Class act: PostGame Interview
1/18 Just Added: Path to the SuperBowl AFC
1/18 Just Added: Path to the SuperBowl NFC
This weeks Matchups are Live!
http://www.happycapper.com/WK20NFLGAMES.html
Almost Forgot...WOW!
It's Wednesday Midnight. Just woke up. Yeah, the Flu has Skewed my sleep schedule. But I awoke to a realization I had Overlooked. Like a good doctor examining a beautiful woman - I have been looking at this weeks games from a clinical, professional perspective. Screw that!
Finally for the first time in years - the 4 best teams in Football are playing for a spot in the SuperBowl!
We're talking Brady vs Manning! 49ers -Seattle! I'm so tired of seeing 2nd rate teams slip into this round - due to a flawed playoff system. Not this year! The Best of the Best go Head to Head this week. You don't need to have a dime on either game to be glued to your set on Sunday. Enjoy!
______________________________________________
FINAL: Sorry everyone! Belichick screwed us.
No reason for Pats to Lose.
He left Blount on the bench. Have to give a back enough reps top get hot - he didn't.
Blount would have let them control time of possession. Keeping it away from Manning. With Dobson back - the deep ball would have been there if they sold the Run.
Belechick had everything he needed for an easy win and Blew it!
Congrats Broncos fans - you played a great game. Fox outcoached Belichick.
Manning outplayed Brady (who missed crucial passes). Pats defense was dumbstruck. Manning played like a surgeon and Broncos defense played a damn near perfect game.
@DEN - 5 vs NE
Projected NE 21-20
(Loss) Side: (NE NOW @ +5)
Final DEN 26-16
1/18/13 Update:NE: WRs Thompkins / Dobson Officially Ques. CB Dennard Prob. 1/18/13 Update: DEN: D. Thomas (Probable) (Calf) Limited in Practice Friday.
15/13 Update: Brady (Illness) DNP Wed. Practiced Thu.
1/15/13 Update: William Hill Has Opened @ -3 SEA with +5 NE (Final Line Picks)
1/15/13 Update: NE: Boston Herald Reports Dobson and Thompkins Probable.
Blount is a Monster Right Now vs 23rd Denver Rush Def.
If you can Run you can Pass - Brady will do both.
Manning 3 Trips inside 30 for 6 Points last week vs SD.
Patriot Pick is Not Pending Injury Report. However, If Dobson Plays - Adjust to NE 28-20.
Dobson is the Missing Deep Threat that can Score Quickly.
Total: 55
Projected: (41)
Over / Under: OFF?
FINAL DEN 21-10 TOTAL (42)
(UNDER) The Rule is: Never bet the Under with 2 Great QBs. Temping Though - if Dobson is Out. Run seems to be the Name of the Game so Far this Playoff Season. Belichick will Use Blount and Ridley to Keep the Ball out of Mannings Hands.
(OVER) If Dobson Does Play - Brady goes deep and Manning Follows.
But Over Factored @ 55.
______________________________________________
______________________________________________
SYSTEM CALLED WINNER AND EXACT FINAL SCORE!
FINAL SEATTLE 23 -17
@SEA - 3 vs SF
Projected SEA 23-17
(WIN)Side: (SEA NOW @ -3)
1/18/13 Update: Tukuafu FB - Ques- Bup Dixon RB 2Tds = Non Factor
1/18/13 Update: Rogers CB 47 Tk, 2 INTs - Ques- Bup Brock 37 Tk, 5 INTs = Non Factor.
1/18/13 Update: Harvin OUT! LB Wright, K.J.- Probable
1/15/13 Update: William Hill Has Opened @ -3 SEA with +5 NE (Final Line Picks)
Projected SEA by 6. I Expected SF to Fall to Panthers - But Lack of Offense for CAR let SF Advance. I think Sherman will Pick Kaepernick and Lynch will provide enough Offense for them to Cover. However both teams are Struggling in the Red Zone. Both Teams Suspect Play Calling and Less than 40% TDs inside the 20. System Projected 20-17. I was Off this Side - But If you ADD 3 for SEA @ Home - They Cover 23-17. I wasn't going to Mess with System Scores, (Although SEA is Usually worth +3 @ Home) Until I learned about Ticket Gate:
The Seattle Ticket Office Has Refused to Sell any Tickets to a California Zip Code.
This is a Funny Story - but also a Factor Worth Considering. Seattle is already one of the loudest Stadiums in the league. Imagine the Decibel Level with 95 % Hawks fans.
Kaepernick and the Off Line will not be able to hear themselves think. So I went ahead and Gave SEA 3 for Home Field Advantage. You could just subtract 3 from SF - as it will effect their Offense. Either way Hawks Cover. If it does get that Loud - could be worth 6 - if you consider the 3 and Out Factor.
1/15/13 Update:
Upon Further review - The attempt to prevent SF Fans from purchasing tickets may be in vein. Nothing prevents Niner Fans from purchasing tickets online from StubHub or other agencies. However, nothing can stop them from selling out Blocks of the seats to Hawks fans first. We'll just have to wait and see how much Maroon and Gold Makes it in the gate on Sunday. Hawks still worth 3 at home either way.
Disclaimer: SF Won the System Matchup by (80) and OL by (14). However, the System Projected the final Score at 23-17 Seattle.
Total: 39.5
Projected: (40)
Over / Under: OFF
Dif only 2.5. Too Close for Comfort.
Last Meeting SF 19-17 (36)
1/15/13 Update: William Hill Has Opened @ -3 SEA with +5 NE (Final Line Picks)
Spread Alert!:
Percey Harvin Needs to Pass Concussion Test Wed or Thu to Play.
This is Effecting the Line. It has NO effect on My SEA Pick.
I say that because although he played great - Wilson did not spread it around with Him in the Game. They may be more effective mixing it up with Kearse, Boldin and Drop offs to Lynch if Harvin Does not Play.
Here are Your Spread Choices:
(-3) Currently Available MGM and Stations (12:08 pm 1/14/13).
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
Much Better than 3.5 if it Disappears or Rises.
Only Downside is a slight chance the Line could Drop to 2.5 if Harvin is Out.
But with Ticket Gate - This May be Unlikely.
The System is Buying SeaHawks Now @ -3
(-3.5) Is the Line at Many Books. if You Can't get to a -3 Book - should be OK - But you might as well wait for a chance at -3 by Friday. If it Goes to 4 you didn't Lose much by Waiting. Worst case it goes to 6 and then waiting would be a mistake. You Make the Call!
______________________________________________
SYSTEM CALLED WINNER AND EXACT FINAL SCORE!
FINAL SEATTLE 23 17
(WIN)Side: (SEA NOW @ -3)
As Predicted - Sherman Played a Role!
Post game interview was Hilarious! Guess Crabtree was talking smack with Sherman during the game. Sherman Violent Verbal rebuttal post-game. Scared the crap out of Female interviewer - Erin Andrews- "Back over to you Joe." LOL
_______________________________
AFC
SYSTEM CALLED TOTAL (41) WITHIN 1 POINT
FINAL DEN 26-16 TOTAL (42)
(Loss) Side: (NE NOW @ +5)
Belichick Blows it!
Blount Only 5 carries!!!!
Sure they stopped him on the 1st 5. But you don't sit a guy who ran for 166 yards and 4 TDs last week. Blount 0 carries 2nd half. Belichick is an IDIOT!
Belichick Played Manning's Game - Manning Won.
Manning wins Shoot Out! Belichick should be Tarred and Feathered when he lands in Foxborough!
Blount no complaints. Class act: PostGame Interview
1/18 Just Added: Path to the SuperBowl AFC
1/18 Just Added: Path to the SuperBowl NFC
This weeks Matchups are Live!
http://www.happycapper.com/WK20NFLGAMES.html
Almost Forgot...WOW!
It's Wednesday Midnight. Just woke up. Yeah, the Flu has Skewed my sleep schedule. But I awoke to a realization I had Overlooked. Like a good doctor examining a beautiful woman - I have been looking at this weeks games from a clinical, professional perspective. Screw that!
Finally for the first time in years - the 4 best teams in Football are playing for a spot in the SuperBowl!
We're talking Brady vs Manning! 49ers -Seattle! I'm so tired of seeing 2nd rate teams slip into this round - due to a flawed playoff system. Not this year! The Best of the Best go Head to Head this week. You don't need to have a dime on either game to be glued to your set on Sunday. Enjoy!
______________________________________________
FINAL: Sorry everyone! Belichick screwed us.
No reason for Pats to Lose.
He left Blount on the bench. Have to give a back enough reps top get hot - he didn't.
Blount would have let them control time of possession. Keeping it away from Manning. With Dobson back - the deep ball would have been there if they sold the Run.
Belechick had everything he needed for an easy win and Blew it!
Congrats Broncos fans - you played a great game. Fox outcoached Belichick.
Manning outplayed Brady (who missed crucial passes). Pats defense was dumbstruck. Manning played like a surgeon and Broncos defense played a damn near perfect game.
@DEN - 5 vs NE
Projected NE 21-20
(Loss) Side: (NE NOW @ +5)
Final DEN 26-16
1/18/13 Update:NE: WRs Thompkins / Dobson Officially Ques. CB Dennard Prob. 1/18/13 Update: DEN: D. Thomas (Probable) (Calf) Limited in Practice Friday.
15/13 Update: Brady (Illness) DNP Wed. Practiced Thu.
1/15/13 Update: William Hill Has Opened @ -3 SEA with +5 NE (Final Line Picks)
1/15/13 Update: NE: Boston Herald Reports Dobson and Thompkins Probable.
Blount is a Monster Right Now vs 23rd Denver Rush Def.
If you can Run you can Pass - Brady will do both.
Manning 3 Trips inside 30 for 6 Points last week vs SD.
Patriot Pick is Not Pending Injury Report. However, If Dobson Plays - Adjust to NE 28-20.
Dobson is the Missing Deep Threat that can Score Quickly.
Total: 55
Projected: (41)
Over / Under: OFF?
FINAL DEN 21-10 TOTAL (42)
(UNDER) The Rule is: Never bet the Under with 2 Great QBs. Temping Though - if Dobson is Out. Run seems to be the Name of the Game so Far this Playoff Season. Belichick will Use Blount and Ridley to Keep the Ball out of Mannings Hands.
(OVER) If Dobson Does Play - Brady goes deep and Manning Follows.
But Over Factored @ 55.
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SYSTEM CALLED WINNER AND EXACT FINAL SCORE!
FINAL SEATTLE 23 -17
@SEA - 3 vs SF
Projected SEA 23-17
(WIN)Side: (SEA NOW @ -3)
1/18/13 Update: Tukuafu FB - Ques- Bup Dixon RB 2Tds = Non Factor
1/18/13 Update: Rogers CB 47 Tk, 2 INTs - Ques- Bup Brock 37 Tk, 5 INTs = Non Factor.
1/18/13 Update: Harvin OUT! LB Wright, K.J.- Probable
1/15/13 Update: William Hill Has Opened @ -3 SEA with +5 NE (Final Line Picks)
Projected SEA by 6. I Expected SF to Fall to Panthers - But Lack of Offense for CAR let SF Advance. I think Sherman will Pick Kaepernick and Lynch will provide enough Offense for them to Cover. However both teams are Struggling in the Red Zone. Both Teams Suspect Play Calling and Less than 40% TDs inside the 20. System Projected 20-17. I was Off this Side - But If you ADD 3 for SEA @ Home - They Cover 23-17. I wasn't going to Mess with System Scores, (Although SEA is Usually worth +3 @ Home) Until I learned about Ticket Gate:
The Seattle Ticket Office Has Refused to Sell any Tickets to a California Zip Code.
This is a Funny Story - but also a Factor Worth Considering. Seattle is already one of the loudest Stadiums in the league. Imagine the Decibel Level with 95 % Hawks fans.
Kaepernick and the Off Line will not be able to hear themselves think. So I went ahead and Gave SEA 3 for Home Field Advantage. You could just subtract 3 from SF - as it will effect their Offense. Either way Hawks Cover. If it does get that Loud - could be worth 6 - if you consider the 3 and Out Factor.
1/15/13 Update:
Upon Further review - The attempt to prevent SF Fans from purchasing tickets may be in vein. Nothing prevents Niner Fans from purchasing tickets online from StubHub or other agencies. However, nothing can stop them from selling out Blocks of the seats to Hawks fans first. We'll just have to wait and see how much Maroon and Gold Makes it in the gate on Sunday. Hawks still worth 3 at home either way.
Disclaimer: SF Won the System Matchup by (80) and OL by (14). However, the System Projected the final Score at 23-17 Seattle.
Total: 39.5
Projected: (40)
Over / Under: OFF
Dif only 2.5. Too Close for Comfort.
Last Meeting SF 19-17 (36)
1/15/13 Update: William Hill Has Opened @ -3 SEA with +5 NE (Final Line Picks)
Spread Alert!:
Percey Harvin Needs to Pass Concussion Test Wed or Thu to Play.
This is Effecting the Line. It has NO effect on My SEA Pick.
I say that because although he played great - Wilson did not spread it around with Him in the Game. They may be more effective mixing it up with Kearse, Boldin and Drop offs to Lynch if Harvin Does not Play.
Here are Your Spread Choices:
(-3) Currently Available MGM and Stations (12:08 pm 1/14/13).
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
Much Better than 3.5 if it Disappears or Rises.
Only Downside is a slight chance the Line could Drop to 2.5 if Harvin is Out.
But with Ticket Gate - This May be Unlikely.
The System is Buying SeaHawks Now @ -3
(-3.5) Is the Line at Many Books. if You Can't get to a -3 Book - should be OK - But you might as well wait for a chance at -3 by Friday. If it Goes to 4 you didn't Lose much by Waiting. Worst case it goes to 6 and then waiting would be a mistake. You Make the Call!
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Tuesday, January 7, 2014
2013 NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND MATCHUPS
PGA Sony Open - Picks and Play by Play on "Golf Picks" Link Above.
Walker Wins!
________________________________________________
SEASON TOTAL 69-33 68%
CURRENT NFL PLAYOFF RECORD 2013 7-2 77%
Divisional 4-2 67%
Unders: 2-0 100%
Sides: 2-2 50%
WildCard 3-0 100%
Sides: 3-0 100%
SF @ CAR Live NFLplayByplay - Now! (Link Above)
Note: Last minute Picks just posted for Sony PGA see GolfPicks (Above).
I will post them ahead of time - next Tourney.
All Future NFL Play by Play Blogs will be posted to NFLplayByplay (Above)
Articles about the NFL will be Posted on State of The Rock (Above)
This way we do not clutter up this Handicapping Blog.
This Post is Updated Regularly - Please Refresh!
Improved Detailed Head to Head Matchup Live Now!
http://www.happycapper.com/WK19NFLGAMES.html
This is a Sneaky Week. At First Glance, Looks like 3 Easy Picks. The Exception Being NO @ SEA -8. Cant count on a Blowout and the -8 Falls Right at the the Projected Cover for the Seahawks.. None of the Games Qualified technically as System Picks. So just using the System Data to do our Best. Never a Bad Idea to throw in a few cheap Cover Tickets.
Let's take a Closer Look at All 4.
_________________________________________________
WINNER! UNDER! Total (38)
@SEA -8 vs NO (47.5)
Projected SEA 24-16 (40) (System Totals Projected Under)
Final SEA 23-15 (38) System projected Score Pretty Good!
SIDE: (OFF) The Saints Defense Matches up pretty Well vs SEA and at a 40% avg in the Red Zone - Seahawks do not warrant 8.
O/U: (UND) The Under Looks Tempting, But, You are betting against Brees, Lynch, and Golden Tate. If it is another SEA Blowout - the last one went Under. System Purchased Under at 47.5. Update 1/9 Noon: Wind Advisory 15-25 Gusts to 35 (Caution:-Total Dropped to 46 Now to 43.5)
Winning Ticket
_________________________________________________
WINNER! PATS -7
@NE -7.5 vs IND (53) (NE NOW@-7.5)
Projected NE 31-21 (52)
FINAL 43-22 NE
SIDE: (NE by 10) Dobson only a Foot Injury - Pulling Trigger Now on Patriots Before it goes to -10. (Waiting Injury) Dome Team on the Road in NE. IND 31st D Line and 27th Rush Def. Blount will Run on them - setting up Pass for Brady. Belichick wil not hand Luck and Hilton a Man defense that leaves Receivers wide open like KC. I believe Luck is Overrated and My money is on a Proven winner in Brady. He is comfortable with Amedola and Edelman and will find them often. Mathis only has one sack vs Pats.
1/10 8:00 Pm - WR Thompkins (Hip)-? / WR Dobson OUT Don't Forget: Edeleman has 6 TDs - as Bup for Thompkins. Dobson's Bup is Amendola who Practiced Fully.
O/U: (OFF) DIF -1.
_________________________________________________
(LOSER) @CAR +2 vs SF (42.5) (CAR NOW@+1)
(WINNER) UNDER 42.5
Projected CAR 20-14 (34) (System Totals Projected Under)
I made a Rookie mistake on this Game. Talked only about Harbough bad management. I have Live Play by Play on Panthers and Rivera bad game management too. Knew both were inept. Gut said Panthers Rock Kap. But Brain knew CAR bad coach - and penalties (reflective of that )did play a big part of the Loss. Should have just taken Under.
Lesson: (Knew Better) Never Bet both sides of a Game - Side and OVER or UNDER
Lesson: Two Suspect Coaches - Stay Off
SIDE: (CAR by 7)
Smith Probable. Pulling Trigger Now on Panthers before Line Moves to CAR -1 or 3?
(Waiting Injury) SF will be on Cross Country Road Trips 2 Weeks in a Row. I subtracted 3 Points for that - From Original 24-17 System Total. GB 26th Defense Frustrated Harbough and Kap. I Think CAR will Pick & Sack KAP and win by 10. Panther should enjoy Good Field Position and have Better Drive Stats than SF (3rd Down Conversion % Etc.).
Smith Practiced Limited Wed and Thu.e.
1/12/13 7:39:
SF: CB Carlos Rodgers (2 INT)-?, But his Bup Brock (5 INT) is healthy
CAR: WR Smith "Sure he will play." Officially Questionable
WR Stewart Practiced Fully on Thursday. Officially Questionable
Weather: Clear / 56 / Wind - 6
O/U: (UND) Last Meeting Total (19) But Projected DIF just 4.5. 1 FG and your Sweating Hard.
Winning Ticket
Crazy Prediction: Kaepernick Knocked out of Game by Panthers Defense.
See Play by Play for Last SF Game vs GB - Inept Offense vs 26th GB Defense.
Also suspect play calling by Harbough.
http://happycapper.blogspot.com/2014/01/sf-vs-gb-live-play-by-play.html
_________________________________________________
@ DEN -9.5 vs SD (55) (DEN NOW@-9.5)
(LOSER) Projected DEN 34-20 (53)
FINAL DEN 24-17
SIDE: (DEN by 14)
Pulling Trigger Now on Broncos Before it goes to -10
I was Ready to Jump on the SD Spread Until I realized Welker is Back. SD Does well in Matchup. But #1 DEN Pass Off vs 27th SD Pass Def. SD Plays better than Stats and Held CIN to 1 TD 2 INT. DEN Def is much weaker than CIN too. But Dalton isn't Manning. Projected Score started at 20-20 . But, by the Time you Add 3 for DEN at Home and 4 for the Pass Defense Disparity - You have 27-20. That Does Not Factor Welker. He's worth 7 = 34-20. If you disagree with any of those point additions -Original Projected 20-20 Take the Chargers.
Welker did not play in their lasting meeting in which Denver lost 27-20.
1/12/13 7:39:
DEN: No Starters Out.
SD: RB Mathews (?) Practiced Limited on Friday sporting a Brace on his Ankle.
WR Royal: DNP all week. However, this is standard practice for him with a Toe injury that has not prevented him from laying previously. Officially (?)
Weather: Only 5%Rain / 38 Kickoff Dropping to 30 / Wind 20 MPH
O/U: (OFF) DIF only -2
_________________________________________________
Sunday, January 5, 2014
HANDICAPPING RESULTS WILDCARD WEEKEND 2013
WILDCARD WEEKEND
SYSTEM GOES 3-0 And 1 PUSH
Season Total 66-31 68%
ORIGINAL SYSTEM PROJECTED SCORES ( Posted Friday 1/3/2013)
http://www.happycapper.com/WK18NFLGAMES.html
Top 2 Picks! 2-0 100%
System Projected Scores:
KC@IND. KC by 5. Spread KC +2.5. Covered by 1.5. Final: 45-44 IND
SD@CIN. SD by 3. Spread SD +7. Covered by 24. Final: 27-10 SD
System Projected Scores:
NO@PHI. NO by 2. Spread NO + 2.5. Covered by 4.5. Final: 26-24 NO.
SF@GB. SF by 7. Spread SF -3. (Push). Final: 23-20 SF.
I Took 4 off the Saints late in the week.
As usual, the system projected score didn't need my help.
It called Saints by 2 Right on the Money.
Good Week
System did a great job calling covers this week. We had a little luck too. Anyone who told you they could call the outcome of all 4 games this week is a liar and a fraud. Probably the toughest 4 games I ever tried to call. But I'm happy with how the system performed. Hope you all had a great week too! Just remember. NO such thing as a sure thing. Never bet anything you can't afford to burn.
Shout Out!
I just want to send out a prayer for those injured KC players yesterday and any other athletes suffering from concussions. For the KC guys - extra brutal. Imagine heading to the locker room a winner. Then finding out you lost - as your head fells like someone hit you with a tire jack. They earn every penny they Make!
Flu Epidemic.
I heard there is a pretty bad outbreak going around in other states. See your doctor if you're sick. I Just wanted to share something that has helped us through colds over the years. 2000 Mg Vitamin C every 4 hours. Also 2 Probiotics and a drop of Oregano oil in a shot of water - once or twice a day. Make sure you're not allergic to anything of that and consult your physician first.
Drunk and Cold - Bad Combination.
We're in the 60s in Vegas. But, I know a lot of you are looking at sub Zero Wind Chills. Just remember, if your team lost and you want to get drunk - stay inside. Alcohol makes you "Feel Warmer". That's because it rushes blood to the vessels near your skin - that takes it away from your bodies core and vital organs. That can cause Hypothermia if you decide to walk home from the bar in the snow after getting tanked. Staying dry helps too. So, Bengals and Chiefs fans - Be Careful!
OK, enough Dr. Oz crap. Time to Handicap the Divisional Round.
PGA
The last time I made a PGA pick was the off season.
My Top pick was Jordan Spieth: Previous Post
So busy with the WildCard picks - forgot to check for any tourney's this week. My #1 Pick is tied for the lead at Hyundai. Brutal $40 at 20-1. $800 out the window if he holds on to win.
http://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard.html
Turn to Golf Channel Now!
Spieth tied with my other pick - Dufner and the Hottest golfer on the planet right now - Zach Johnson. Can root against Jordan, Kids not old enough to drink. But Zach was only at 12-1, so no huge loss if he steals it. Dufner was at 20-1 with Spieth. Final Round Back 9 Live now.
After what Zach Did at Northwestern - would have for sure covered him for $20. But losing $240 stings a lot less than $800. Winner: Jaquin Pheonix..I mean Zach Johnson.
Please feel free to comment by clicking on "No Comments" (below)
Gotta be some good playoff party and Cold weather stories out there!
Share them with us.
SYSTEM GOES 3-0 And 1 PUSH
Season Total 66-31 68%
ORIGINAL SYSTEM PROJECTED SCORES ( Posted Friday 1/3/2013)
http://www.happycapper.com/WK18NFLGAMES.html
Top 2 Picks! 2-0 100%
System Projected Scores:
KC@IND. KC by 5. Spread KC +2.5. Covered by 1.5. Final: 45-44 IND
SD@CIN. SD by 3. Spread SD +7. Covered by 24. Final: 27-10 SD
System Projected Scores:
NO@PHI. NO by 2. Spread NO + 2.5. Covered by 4.5. Final: 26-24 NO.
SF@GB. SF by 7. Spread SF -3. (Push). Final: 23-20 SF.
I Took 4 off the Saints late in the week.
As usual, the system projected score didn't need my help.
It called Saints by 2 Right on the Money.
Good Week
System did a great job calling covers this week. We had a little luck too. Anyone who told you they could call the outcome of all 4 games this week is a liar and a fraud. Probably the toughest 4 games I ever tried to call. But I'm happy with how the system performed. Hope you all had a great week too! Just remember. NO such thing as a sure thing. Never bet anything you can't afford to burn.
Shout Out!
I just want to send out a prayer for those injured KC players yesterday and any other athletes suffering from concussions. For the KC guys - extra brutal. Imagine heading to the locker room a winner. Then finding out you lost - as your head fells like someone hit you with a tire jack. They earn every penny they Make!
Flu Epidemic.
I heard there is a pretty bad outbreak going around in other states. See your doctor if you're sick. I Just wanted to share something that has helped us through colds over the years. 2000 Mg Vitamin C every 4 hours. Also 2 Probiotics and a drop of Oregano oil in a shot of water - once or twice a day. Make sure you're not allergic to anything of that and consult your physician first.
Drunk and Cold - Bad Combination.
We're in the 60s in Vegas. But, I know a lot of you are looking at sub Zero Wind Chills. Just remember, if your team lost and you want to get drunk - stay inside. Alcohol makes you "Feel Warmer". That's because it rushes blood to the vessels near your skin - that takes it away from your bodies core and vital organs. That can cause Hypothermia if you decide to walk home from the bar in the snow after getting tanked. Staying dry helps too. So, Bengals and Chiefs fans - Be Careful!
OK, enough Dr. Oz crap. Time to Handicap the Divisional Round.
PGA
The last time I made a PGA pick was the off season.
My Top pick was Jordan Spieth: Previous Post
So busy with the WildCard picks - forgot to check for any tourney's this week. My #1 Pick is tied for the lead at Hyundai. Brutal $40 at 20-1. $800 out the window if he holds on to win.
http://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard.html
Turn to Golf Channel Now!
Spieth tied with my other pick - Dufner and the Hottest golfer on the planet right now - Zach Johnson. Can root against Jordan, Kids not old enough to drink. But Zach was only at 12-1, so no huge loss if he steals it. Dufner was at 20-1 with Spieth. Final Round Back 9 Live now.
After what Zach Did at Northwestern - would have for sure covered him for $20. But losing $240 stings a lot less than $800. Winner: Jaquin Pheonix..I mean Zach Johnson.
 |
| Jauquin Phoenix |
 |
| Zach Johnson |
Please feel free to comment by clicking on "No Comments" (below)
Gotta be some good playoff party and Cold weather stories out there!
Share them with us.
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