NFL PICKS WEEK 13 2014

______PREGAME______

6 DECENT SYSTEM PICKS THIS WEEK

 3 MORNING

http://www.happycapper.com/2014WK13EARLY.htmL

@ BAL -6 vs SD
BAL BLOWS 10 PT LEAD - SD 21 PTS 4TH QTR
NYG - 3 @ JAC
NYG 18 PT LEAD AT HT - BLOWS 2ND HALF
CIN -3.5 @ TB
CIN 4 PT LEAD - KICKS FAILED ONSIDE KICK - LOSES GAME

3 AFTERNOON 

http://www.happycapper.com/2014WK13LATE.htmL

@ARI -2 @ATL
CARDS JUST HAVE NO OFFENSE - FALCONS STILL DO
NE +3 @ GB
WITH 3 MIN LEFT - DOWN BY 5 - PATS KICK FG
THEY GAVE UP AND MISSED FG THAT WOULD HAVE COVERED
MIA -7 @ NYJ
???????????

NEW THIS WEEK!
(DR)
HEAD TO HEAD - OFFENSIVE DRIVE SUCCESS RANKS 
(Click to Enlarge)

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 13 THANKSGIVING DAY

FOLLOW ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/rickonthestrip

_____POSTGAMES______

ALRIGHT!
THAT'S BETTER!
I CALLED DET AND SEA
SYSTEM CALLED PHI
 
EAGLES
I took 6 Off PHI for Sanchez - Otherwise they Qualify as A Pick.
SYSTEM CALLED PHI.
I have to quit doing that with Him. The Eagles Defense is the Key
They Keep giving him 3 and Outs - Mulligans.
He only Converts Half of them - but as long as that continues -
He Could Keep Winning. 
WITH
 SEA @ PHI / DAL / WAS AND NYG LEFT
THEY COULD GO 4-0
SEA DEFENSE WILL GIVE HIM TROUBLE
BUT THAT OFFENSE CAN STALL ON THE ROAD
AGAIN - THE PHI DEFENSE COULD SAVE HIS ASS. 


 _____PREGAME______
THANKSGIVING GAMES

UPDATED
i HAVE A TICKET WITH 
DET / DAL / SEA

MY ORIGINAL PICKS
BUT AFTER I FED SYSTEM THIS WEEKS STATS
SYSTEM FAVORS PHI - (DNQ) BUT CLOSE
HOPE SANCHEZ CHOKES! LOL

NO GAMES QUALIFIED

@DET -7 vs CHI (47.5)

UNDER IS TEMPTING
BUT
THE LIONS EXPLOSIVE PASS OFFENSE

VS WEAK CHI PASS DEFENSE
CHI DEFENSE IS BANGED UP
DET DOMINATES ON DEFENSE
HOWEVER
DET LOSES OFF LINE AND RUSH OFFENSE
LION NOT SCORING LATELY 33% RED ZONE
7 A LOT TO GIVE WITH NO SCORING? 
(DET -7?)

 @DAL -3 vs PHI (55)

HATE THIS GAME

OVER FACTORED
DALLAS DEFENSE RANKED 28TH
SYSTEM LIKES EAGLES
DALLAS LOSES THE MATCHUP

COWBOYS PROJECTED TO COVER BY 3 = PUSH
PHI OFFENSE PROJECTED AT 80% TDs IN RED ZONE

EAGLES WIN OFF LINE AND PASS OFF 
PHI IS A GREAT TEAM

SANCHEZ NOT GREAT VS GB OR TEN
SANCHEZ MECHANICS ARE GOOD
JUST NOT SURE HE CAN HANDLE THE SPOLIGHT? 

ROMO TIME IN THE POCKET
BUT DON'T TRUST ROMO EITHER

FOR THOSE REASONS

(OFF)

@SF -1.5 vs SEA (39.5)

SEA WINS PASS OFFENSE BIG

KAP CANT THROW A FOOTBALL

SF DEFENSE BANGED UP

(I LIKE SEA + 1.5) 

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NFL PICKS WEEK 12 RECAP

WELL I'M SICK OF LOSING THE NIGHT GAMES

THOSE ARE USUALLY GAMES THAT DID NOT QUALIFY

SO THEY COUNT

BUT IT WOULD BE NICE TO HIT A FEW AGAIN

NAILED SEVERAL IN A ROW LAST MONTH.

THE GOOD NEWS

THE SYSTEM - BY ITSELF - IS NAILING THE PICKS

TAKE A LOOK AT THE IMPROVED GAME STRIP

HOPEFULLY EASIER TO READ

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 I'M NOT THRILLED AT 60%

THE FINAL WEEKS WILL BE CRUCIAL

TO STAYING ABOVE 60%

THAT SETS US APART

MOST HANDICAPPERS THAT CHARGE ARE 40-50%

SO - NOT THROWING THE BALL OUT OF BOUNDS

READY TO FINISH STRONG THIS YEAR.  

I CALLED ON AND OFF A FEW GAMES THIS WEEK

SYSTEM DI NOT NEED MY HELP

I HAVE STRICTLY STRUCTURED THE ADDING OR SUBTRACTING OF POINTS

SO - REALLY LETTING THE SYSTEM DO ITS JOB

FROM HERE ON OUT

READY FOR WEEK 13!

NFL PICKS WEEK 12 MONDAY NIGHT

NEITHER GAME QUALIFIED

VIEW MATCH UPS

http://happycapper.com/2014WK12LATE.htmL

MY PICKS FOR TONIGHT

JETS +3 
LIKE JETS DEFENSE TO PRESSURE ORTON
LIKE HARVIN TO SHINE IN PRIME TIME

 BUF/NYJ OVER (42)
UNDER FACTORED SO TOOK THE OVER

NO/BAL UNDER (51) 
OVER FACTORED SO TOOK THE UNDER

 

DID I BET IN THE CLOWN CAR?
TIME TO UP MY MEDS - OR LOWER THEM
OR SOMETHING?

NFL PICKS WEEK 12 2014

______POSTGAME______

ONLY 2 GAMES QUALIFIED WITHOUT MY HELP
NE
CIN
BOTH COVERED

MAYBE I SHOULD HELP LESS
LOL

I HAVE TO KEEP THE RECORD LEGIT THOUGH
KC = LOSS
UNDER DENVER = LOSS
NE = WIN
CIN = WIN

2 - 2 50%

______PREGAME______


NOTHING BUT LAND MINES THIS WEEK - BE CAREFUL. 
COULD BE A BIG WEEK FOR THE DOGS

THE GOOD OFFENSES ARE MATCHED WITH GOOD DEFENSES
 
ONLY 1 TEAM PROJECTED TO COVER THE SPREAD - PATS
NE DID NOT WIN A SINGLE OFFENSIVE MATCHUP VS DET

ONLY 1 TEAM WON OFF LINE, RUSH OFF AND PASS OFF
AND THAT WAS A DOG! 
BENGALS

VIEW MATCHUPS
http://happycapper.com/2014WK12EARLY.htmL
http://happycapper.com/2014WK12LATE.htmL

HERE ARE THIS WEEKS GAMES AND PICKS

(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

 3 PICKS QUALIFIED

@NE - 7 VS DET (OFF) 

PATS DID NOT WIN THE OFFENSIVE MATCHUP

DET DEF VERY STRONG - SYSTEM OFF.
NOTE: HAVE TO FACTOR RB GREY NE.
4 TDS VS IND LAST WEEK
IND - SCHED STRENGTH (13TH) RD (7TH) OPO OFF (17)
DET -  SCHED STRENGTH (3RD) RD (2ND) OPO OFF (16)
LION HAVE A MUCH BETTER RUSH DEFENSE
IF GREY LIGHTS UP DET - THEY COVER
HAND NE THE LOMBARDI

CIN +1.5 @HOU 

 (IF FOSTER OUT)

DON'T TRUST DALTON
MALLET PLAYED WELL LAST WEEK
WATT AND CUSHING ARE A FORCE

BUT FOSTER DOUBTFUL

AJ GREEN BACK VS WEAK PASS DEF 

IF FOSTER STARTS (OFF) 

@DEN VS MIA (UNDER) 

GUSTY WIND - DEFENSES HEALTHY BOTH OFFENSES BANGED UP

BAD RED ZONE OFFENSES - LIKE THE UNDER
GAME QUALIFIES DIF AND RED ZONE BUT NOT PASS OFFENSE
BUT CLOSE - ADD WEATHER AND OFFENSIVE INJURIES
THAT'S WHY IT IS A SYSTEM PICK

  RICK PARLAYS

 EARLY

CIN +1.5 @ HOU

GB @ MIN +8.5

TB +5.5 @ CHI

 LATE

ARI + 7 @SEA

@DEN VS MIA (UNDER)

NYJ +2.5 VS BUF

NFL PICKS WEEK 12 THURSDAY NIGHT 2014

______POSTGAME______
 ONE STOP AND ONE DRIVE 
AWAY FROM A WINNING TICKET
WOULD HAVE MADE IT 27-17
BUT PATHETIC PERFORMANCE BY KC
KC DIDN'T LOOK PAST OAK
THEY JUST DIDN'T EXECUTE 
PASS OFFENSE POORY RATED FOR A REASON
 ALEX SMITH

LESSON LEARNED 
HINDSIGHT 20/20
GOOD LESSON LEARNED TONIGHT
NEVER GIVE 7
 IF THE TEAM DOESN'T DOMINATE PASS OFF MATCH UP
KC PASS OFF 26TH
OAK PASS DEF 29TH

CONGRATS OAKLAND!
PLAYED WITH HEART AND EARNED IT 

______PREGAME______

KC -7 @ OAK (42.5)

CLICK TO ENLARGE MATCHUP

STATS FOR OAK
OAK 30TH DEF LINE VS #2 RUSH OFFENSE
OAK 29TH PASS DEF SHOULD OPEN PASS FOR SMITH
KC 7TH PD VS 19TH PASS
 OFF
KC DEF 22% RED ZONE
KC SHOULD ENJOY GOOD FIELD POSITION

PICK
KC CANT AFFORD A LOSS IN THEIR DIVISION
THEY WONT LOOK PAST OAK
WEAK OAK PASS DEF LETS KC RUN IT UP
CBs RODGERS AND CARRIE OUT FOR OAK
KC BEAT OAK 56-31 
LAST MEETING @ OAK 12/15/13
GAME WENT OVER

BLOW OUT FACTOR
KC OFFENSE BLUE
OAK OFFENSE RED
= BLOWOUT

 (KC BY 17)
 SYSTEM OFF THE OVR/UND
I LIKE THE
 (OVER)

 PROJECTED
KC 34 OAK 17
(51)

THIS WEEKS GAMES
(STATS AND PICKS OTHER GAMES - SAT NOON) 
CLICK TO ENLARGE GAMES 

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NFL PICKS WEEK 11 MONDAY NIGHT 2014

_____POSTGAME_____

LEARNED FROM THIS ONE
PIT DID NOT DOMINATE THE MATCHUP ON OFFENSE
TEN JUST LOST ON OFF AND DEF
LOOK FOR OFFENSIVE DOMINATION
IN A SOLID PICK NEXT WEEK. 
(SEE BELOW)
 
 _____POSTGAME_____
 
PIT-6.5 @TEN (46.5)

CLICK TO VIEW MATCHUP 

SYSTEM  PICKED PIT

OVER / UNDER DIDN'T QUALIFY
PROJECTED
PIT 27 TEN 16

CASE FOR PIT

TEN WEAK DLINE AND RUSH DEF SHOULD SET UP PASS FOR BEN. 

PIT GOOD FIELD POS DEF. TEN NO OFFENSE AND PIT #3 RUSH DEF

COULD EQUAL 3 AND OUTS FROM ROOKIE QB 

CASE FOR TEN

TEN GOOD PASS DEF. PIT BAD FG% AND RUSH OFF. 

PIT BAD PUNTER. TEN GOOD PUNTER  

CASE FOR UNDER

 GOOD TEN PASS DEF 

AND RED ZONE DEF SHOULD KEEP IT UNDER

CASE FOR OVER 

A HUGE BLOWOUT BY PIT COULD TAKE IT OVER

PICK 

PIT- 6.5

OVER / UNDER 

(SYSTEM OFF)

 BUT LIKE THE

 UNDER

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NFL PICKS WEEK 11 2014

_______RECAP_______

SYSTEM DID A PRETTY GOOD JOB - BUT NEEDED HELP

INTANGIBLES!
CUTLER AND BEARS DUE AT HOME - OFF MIN
SANCHEZ NOT READY FOR PACKERS AT HOME - OFF PHI
DEN WAS A SOUND PICK - BUT JULIUS THOMAS HURT DURING GAME
KNEW FISHER WAS TRICKY - BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL IT OFF.
THE OVER IN SD GAVE US STRONGER OVR/UND PROTOCOLS. 
PIT - LEARNED FROM THAT TOO
PIT DID NOT DOMINATE THE MATCHUP OFFENSIVELY
TEN OFF AND DEF JUST LOST THE MATCH UP.
LOOK FOR GOOD OFFENSIVE DOMINATION 
IN A SOLID PICK NEXT WEEK. 


_______PREGAMES_______

CLICK TO ENLARGE

   NOTE:
LAST YR WE NEEDED 3 RED OR BLUE FOR OVR/UND.  GOING BACK TO THAT NEXT WEEK
THAT MEANS: THE DIF / PASS OFFENSES AND REDZONE OFFENSES ALL HAVE TO LINE UP
GOT BURNED ON THE SD-OAK OVER - BUT- HELPS US IMPROVE THE SYSTEM. 


SYSTEM PICKS
@MIA -4.5 vs BUF
MIA / BUF UNDER 41
MIN +3 @ CHI (OFF)
STAYED OFF THIS GAME - BEARS DESPERATE FOR WIN AT HOME  
 DEN - 9.5 AT STL
PHI+6 @GB (OFF)
INJURY OFF - FOLES OUT - SANCHEZ IN
PULLING SYSTEM OFF - IF YOU LIKE SANCHEZ
SYSTEM LIKES PHI
SD vs OAK (OVER) 44.5
PIT -6 @ TEN 

MY PARLAY 
DEN - 9.5 AT STL
NE +3 @ IND
PIT -6 @ TEN

VIEW FULL MATCHUPS!
http://happycapper.com/2014WK11EARLY.htmL

http://happycapper.com/2014WK11LATE.htmL


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NFL PICKS WEEK 11 THURSDAY NIGHT 2014

____POSTGAME____

System Nailed It! 

PROJECTED

MIA 21-12 (33)

FINAL SCORE
MIA 22-9 (31)

SCORING
I DIDNT LAST NIGHT
HOPE YOU DID.  
I DID POST THE SYTSEM PICK FOR YOU
SEPARATE FROM MY PICK
MIA DID QUALIFY BY THE WAY
When Adding or subtracting points from the projected scores
I Round Based on Red Zone Offense.
Bad Red Zone more likely a FG than TD
Example 21 become 20
system projected MIA at 21
I Rounded Down to 20
That was Wrong as MIA RZO was projected at  52%
system projected BUF at 12
I Rounded UP to 13
 That was Wrong as BUF projected RZO was 32%

MIA  21 -12 Qualifies as a Pick
The Under Always Qualified
Win Win

Hope You Followed the System Last Night and Not Me. 
 I Really Liked Orton
Not So Much Anymore
Not Calling the System Off Anymore

 MissMatches 
in The Match Ups
Keep an eye on those
The Off Line and Rush Off Disparity of BUF in the MUP
Proved to be a Huge Factor
Orton had No Time to Throw
Couldnt Run
and vs  #2 Pass DEF
It all played out just like the MUP Projected

Looking Forward to the Rest of The Week


____PREGAME____

@MIA-4 VS BUF (41.5)

IM OFF THIS GAME

NEITHER TEAM QUALIFIED AS A PICK

OFF UNDER - FACTORED AT 41.5

CLICK TO ENLARGE GAME STRIP

SYSTEM PROJECTS

MIA 20-13 (33)

VIEW FULL MATCHUP
http://happycapper.com/2014WK11EARLY.htmL

 

CASE FOR MIA

THE SYSTEM IS LEANING HARD TOWARD MIA

MIA CAN RUN ON BUF

TOP 5 DL AND RD VS NEAR LAST OL AND RO OF BUF

ALSO RBs SPILLER OUT AND FRED JACKSON DOUBTFUL 

MIA BAD IN RED ZONE - BUT BUF WEAK RED ZONE DEF

MIA ALSO HAD GREAT RED ZONE DEF-

VS WEAK RED ZONE OF OF BUF

MIA STATISTICALLY SHOULD HAVE GOOD FIELD POSITION

 CASE FOR BUF

MIA HAS PLAYED A MUCH WEAKER SCHEDULE

NOT IMPRESSED WITH TANNEILL LAST WEEK

BUF #1 PASS DEF

RB DIXON AVERAGING 7 YDS PER CARRY

ORTON IS GREAT WITH LAST MINUTE DRIVES

BUF WON LAST MEETING 29-10

 CASE FOR UNDER

THIS GAMES QUALIFIES AS AN UNDER

 THE TOTAL AND THE RED ZONE OFFENSES QUALIFY

ONLY OFF BECAUSE UNDER FACTORED

  CASE FOR OVER 

UNDER FACTORED AT 41.5

SO PULLED SYSTEM OFF IT 

BUF WEAK RED ZONE DEFENSE

HAVE A FEELING 3 AND OUTS

PRESENT GOOD FIELD POSITIONS

 AND SCORING OPPORTUNITIES

BET GUESS 

NIGHT GAMES HAVE BEEN GOING OVER

NOT SOLD ON TANNEHILL

BOTH TEAM +5 TURN OVERS

THINKING 3 AND OUTS AND T/O TAKE IT OVER

RICK

BUF +4 OVER

SYSTEM

MIA -4 / UNDER

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NFL PICKS WEEK 10 REVIEW

Glad the week is over. When the Lines came out - several friends said take the week off - these games are impossible. I agreed, but didn't. Then a family emergency kept me from posting all the pregame match ups. I pulled 9 Picks out of my ass, loosely based on system data.

So, Looked Impossible. Then once I posted Parlays and games started  - looked disastrous. Then double checked the system and looked like an awesome week. Thought we were 6-0. The realized MIA didn't cover. 5-1, Still Awesome. One game left, Just needed the Under Monday Night for 6-1. We also had a winning Parlay that just needed CAR to cover +6.5. Then Cam Newton comes out on pain killers and stands in the backfield for 5 minutes every play. Really?

5-2 This Week

Glad to Escape a Brutal Week with a Winning Record. 

Keeping Record Legit. Some of you have followed me for almost 5 years. You know I care about our record and am always fair - to keep it legit. The System said CIN would not cover and Would go Under - but CLE did not Win the Matchup and the combined RZ or Red Zone Offenses and PO Pass Offenses did not support the Under. I did not Add those 2 wins to this weeks record as neither qualified as a System Pick. See Week 10 Results Below. 

Week 10 Results

The problem is - deciding how much we "help" the system. For instance, the system does not account for injuries - unless I add or subtract points to or from the projected scores. I hate confusing everyone with Rick Picks vs System Picks etc. This week helped me come up with a solution.

The Solution

From now on I Will Post System Picks Separate from Parlays. 

They will be On and Below the Game Strip

On the Matchups - You can see Points Added or Subtracted (A/S)

I will also Note these additions or Subtractions in the Match Up Notes.

Here is the A/S Protocol:

+3 Legit Home Field Advantage

-3  Legit Away Disadvantage

+4 Offensive Mismatch

-4  Defensive Mismatch

For instance - Denver had Offensive and Defensive Mismatches. Without factoring those-

At -11 Oak would have been the Qualified Pick.

-3   Major or Multiple Offensive Starters Out

+3  (Opposing Team) Major or Multiple Defensive Starters Out

-3  Each Team Heavy Wind 

Here is an Example

Note: If I gave +4 for the PHI Offensive Mismatch the BY of 1.8 Becomes 5.8 PHI becomes a Qualified Pick. I Highlighted the A/S Boxes, Mismatch, Weather, and a Place for Injury Points.

As You can See - These are Minor Adjustments

We Want to Help The System.

We Do Not Want to Change The System.  


Looking Forward to Next Week!

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NFL PICKS WEEK 10 MONDAY NIGHT

 _____POSTGAME_____
 WOW! A LITTLE HEADS UP WOULD HAVE BEEN NICE
NEWTON NOT EVEN LISTED ON INJURY REPORT
GUYS ON PAIN KILLERS AND CAN HARDLY MOVE
SANCHEZ NEVER HAD A CHANCE TO SUCK TONIGHT
CAM BEAT HIM TO IT
PANTHERS DEFENSE EXHAUSTED
FROM 3 AND OUTS ON OFFENSE
SANCHEZ  HAD THE BALL FOR OVER 38 MINUTES 
PLENTY OF CHANCES TO GET IT RIGHT
LETS SEE HOW HE DOES AGAINST A TEAM WITH AN OFFENSE
 NEXT WEEK VS GB

_____PREGAME_____
@PHI-7 VS CAR (48.5)
VIEW FULL MATCHUP

CASE FOR PHI

4-0 AT HOME

CAR 1-2 ROAD

 WINS MATCH UP HUGE (104)

STRONGER DEF AND OFF LINE
TOP 10 OL, RO, PO 
TOP 5 IN OFF AND DEF FIELD POSITION

LOTTA WEAPONS

CAR OFENSE PROJECTED ONLY 39% IN RED ZONE

 CASE FOR CAR

  THIS ONE COMES DOWN TO SANCHEZ

HE PLAY BAD - CAR COVERS

CAR HAS PLAYED A HARD SCHEDULE

12TH IN PASS DEF VS SANCHEZ

PHI -10 T/O RATIO

 CASE FOR UNDER

CAR GOOD PASS DEF VS SANCHEZ

COMBINED OFFENSES PROJECTED 46% RED ZONE

 CASE FOR OVER

IF SANCHEZ PLAYS WELL - PHI COULD BLOW OUT CAR

IF HE PLAYS BAD ENOUGH - 3 AND OUTS

PHI DEFENSE COULD GET WORN OUT

CAR COULD BLOW OUT PHI

BEST GUESS

I AM NOT A FAN OF SANCHEZ

TAKE 7 OFF PHI WITH HIM STARTING

GIVE IT TO CAR

PROJECTED

CAR 24-17

UNDER (48.5)

SYSTEM CALLING UNDER
SYSTEM PROJECTING PHI BY 8
 (SYSTEM NOT FACTORING SANCHEZ)

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 2014

I HAD A FAMILY EMERGENCY THIS WEEK
WASN'T ABLE TO POST ALL THE MATCHUPS

I DID MY BEST ON THE PARLAYS
MY PICKS ARE AROUND 50%
I DO HAVE ONE PARLAY STILL ALIVE
DEN (W) / ARI (W) / CAR (?)

THE GOOD NEWS
RUNNING LATE - I REALIZED I NEED A WAY 
TO LOOK AT ALL THE GAMES AT A GLANCE
WITH MUP / BY AND OVR / UND STATS
CHECK OUT THE NEW STRIP! 

THE PROJECTIONS BELOW ARE THE ACTUAL SYSTEM PICKS
LOOK AT THE (BY)
THAT IS HOW MUCH THE FAVORITE SHOULD COVER BY
FAV +4 OR MORE
DOG -4 OR LESS
LOOK AT THE MUP
THAT IS THE OVERALL MATCH UP SCORE
 FAV +30 OR MORE
DOG -30 OR LESS
LOOK AT THE (DIF)
FOR OVER UNDERS
DIF MUST BE +5 OR MORE FOR OVER
-5 OR LESS FOR UNDER
PLUS PASS OFF OR RED ZONE MUST MATCH

(JUST LOOK ON THE FAR LEFT FOR PICKS)
MUP / BY - ONE COLOR
(FAR RIGHT FOR OVR / UND)
DIF + 1 MATCHING BLUE OR RED

WOW!
5-1

AS YOU CAN SEE
PIT AND TB DID NOT QUALIFY

5 OF 6 QUALIFIED PICKS HIT!
3 PICKS / 2 OVER / UND
(1 LEFT - UNDER TONIGHT )
I WILL POST THIS NEW STRIP WEEKLY NOW
 

  SYSTEM CALLED UNDER MONDAY NIGHT

NOTE: IF YOU TAKE 7 POINTS OFF EAGLES FOR SANCHEZ

PANTHERS QUALIFY AS A PICK - UP TO YOU?
OTHERWISE PHI WINS MUP BIG
BUT ONLY COVERS BY SPREAD BY 2.3 IN MUP

SORRY YOU WERE NOT ABLE TO BENEFIT
FROM SYSTEM THIS WEEK - NEITHER WAS I. 
STILL HAVE A PARLAY LIVE THOUGH - GO PANTHERS!

  LATE PARLAY

DEN-11 @ OAK

@ARI-6.5 VS STL

 CAR+6.5 @PHI (Sanchez)

Caution
 There is no Perfect System
Only Bet what You can Afford to Burn 
 

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