Thursday, November 13, 2014

NFL PICKS WEEK 11 THURSDAY NIGHT 2014

____POSTGAME____

System Nailed It! 

PROJECTED
MIA 21-12 (33)

FINAL SCORE
MIA 22-9 (31)

SCORING
I DIDNT LAST NIGHT
HOPE YOU DID.  
I DID POST THE SYTSEM PICK FOR YOU
SEPARATE FROM MY PICK
MIA DID QUALIFY BY THE WAY
When Adding or subtracting points from the projected scores
I Round Based on Red Zone Offense.
Bad Red Zone more likely a FG than TD
Example 21 become 20
system projected MIA at 21
I Rounded Down to 20
That was Wrong as MIA RZO was projected at  52%
system projected BUF at 12
I Rounded UP to 13
 That was Wrong as BUF projected RZO was 32%

MIA  21 -12 Qualifies as a Pick
The Under Always Qualified
Win Win

Hope You Followed the System Last Night and Not Me. 
 I Really Liked Orton
Not So Much Anymore
Not Calling the System Off Anymore

 MissMatches 
in The Match Ups
Keep an eye on those
The Off Line and Rush Off Disparity of BUF in the MUP
Proved to be a Huge Factor
Orton had No Time to Throw
Couldnt Run
and vs  #2 Pass DEF
It all played out just like the MUP Projected

Looking Forward to the Rest of The Week


____PREGAME____

@MIA-4 VS BUF (41.5)
IM OFF THIS GAME
NEITHER TEAM QUALIFIED AS A PICK
OFF UNDER - FACTORED AT 41.5

CLICK TO ENLARGE GAME STRIP
SYSTEM PROJECTS
MIA 20-13 (33)

VIEW FULL MATCHUP
http://happycapper.com/2014WK11EARLY.htmL
 
CASE FOR MIA
THE SYSTEM IS LEANING HARD TOWARD MIA
MIA CAN RUN ON BUF
TOP 5 DL AND RD VS NEAR LAST OL AND RO OF BUF
ALSO RBs SPILLER OUT AND FRED JACKSON DOUBTFUL 
MIA BAD IN RED ZONE - BUT BUF WEAK RED ZONE DEF
MIA ALSO HAD GREAT RED ZONE DEF-
VS WEAK RED ZONE OF OF BUF
MIA STATISTICALLY SHOULD HAVE GOOD FIELD POSITION

 CASE FOR BUF
MIA HAS PLAYED A MUCH WEAKER SCHEDULE
NOT IMPRESSED WITH TANNEILL LAST WEEK
BUF #1 PASS DEF
RB DIXON AVERAGING 7 YDS PER CARRY
ORTON IS GREAT WITH LAST MINUTE DRIVES
BUF WON LAST MEETING 29-10

 CASE FOR UNDER
THIS GAMES QUALIFIES AS AN UNDER
 THE TOTAL AND THE RED ZONE OFFENSES QUALIFY
ONLY OFF BECAUSE UNDER FACTORED

  CASE FOR OVER 
UNDER FACTORED AT 41.5
SO PULLED SYSTEM OFF IT 
BUF WEAK RED ZONE DEFENSE
HAVE A FEELING 3 AND OUTS
PRESENT GOOD FIELD POSITIONS
 AND SCORING OPPORTUNITIES

BET GUESS 
NIGHT GAMES HAVE BEEN GOING OVER
NOT SOLD ON TANNEHILL
BOTH TEAM +5 TURN OVERS
THINKING 3 AND OUTS AND T/O TAKE IT OVER

RICK
BUF +4 OVER

SYSTEM
MIA -4 / UNDER


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