NFL PICKS WEEK 10 REVIEW

Glad the week is over. When the Lines came out - several friends said take the week off - these games are impossible. I agreed, but didn't. Then a family emergency kept me from posting all the pregame match ups. I pulled 9 Picks out of my ass, loosely based on system data.

So, Looked Impossible. Then once I posted Parlays and games started  - looked disastrous. Then double checked the system and looked like an awesome week. Thought we were 6-0. The realized MIA didn't cover. 5-1, Still Awesome. One game left, Just needed the Under Monday Night for 6-1. We also had a winning Parlay that just needed CAR to cover +6.5. Then Cam Newton comes out on pain killers and stands in the backfield for 5 minutes every play. Really?

5-2 This Week

Glad to Escape a Brutal Week with a Winning Record. 

Keeping Record Legit. Some of you have followed me for almost 5 years. You know I care about our record and am always fair - to keep it legit. The System said CIN would not cover and Would go Under - but CLE did not Win the Matchup and the combined RZ or Red Zone Offenses and PO Pass Offenses did not support the Under. I did not Add those 2 wins to this weeks record as neither qualified as a System Pick. See Week 10 Results Below. 

Week 10 Results

The problem is - deciding how much we "help" the system. For instance, the system does not account for injuries - unless I add or subtract points to or from the projected scores. I hate confusing everyone with Rick Picks vs System Picks etc. This week helped me come up with a solution.

The Solution

From now on I Will Post System Picks Separate from Parlays. 

They will be On and Below the Game Strip

On the Matchups - You can see Points Added or Subtracted (A/S)

I will also Note these additions or Subtractions in the Match Up Notes.

Here is the A/S Protocol:

+3 Legit Home Field Advantage

-3  Legit Away Disadvantage

+4 Offensive Mismatch

-4  Defensive Mismatch

For instance - Denver had Offensive and Defensive Mismatches. Without factoring those-

At -11 Oak would have been the Qualified Pick.

-3   Major or Multiple Offensive Starters Out

+3  (Opposing Team) Major or Multiple Defensive Starters Out

-3  Each Team Heavy Wind 

Here is an Example

Note: If I gave +4 for the PHI Offensive Mismatch the BY of 1.8 Becomes 5.8 PHI becomes a Qualified Pick. I Highlighted the A/S Boxes, Mismatch, Weather, and a Place for Injury Points.

As You can See - These are Minor Adjustments

We Want to Help The System.

We Do Not Want to Change The System.  


Looking Forward to Next Week!

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