DAMN I KNEW IT!
My plan at the beginning of the week was to lay off, lay low, and not bet a single game. Sometimes good stats can't compensate for bad lines and bad match-ups. Let the leaders take the hit. Don Anthony 2-1 stayed at 64%, but the T2s (sure enough) dropped from 59% to 57%*.
If I had laid off - we would be alone in 2nd at 59%. Instead, gave away 3 losses - Dropped 2% and lost $100. This after "I" predicted this as a "bad" week to bet!
Lesson learned - Trust your Gut! The Good news - we played conservative and only bet 3 games - not 8! Still T2 57% (and we're free!).
BTW, if you're new to handicapping records - the link below lists the top pros in Vegas - that charge for picks. The standard is 52.9% in order to cover the vig (sportsbook fees) and make money. So, we are still way ahead of the game...
* http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/
We did make some great calls - predicting that JAX could win. Cleveland would get 1st win, and SF over LA. Also the bank is still up - so we can afford a $100 bet each of the coming weeks.1, 3 team parlay pays 6-1 and will more than double our money on the year
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