DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS PRE GAME SUMMARIES

TOP PICKS

BAL +9.5

UNDER DEN vs BAL

SF -3

SEA +2.5

OVER SEA vs ATL

NE -9.5 
UNDER NE vs HOU 

PRE-GAME SUMMARIES:

All Times PST
# = Total Overall Rank out of 32 teams - Regular Season



(H) DEN #1 (-9.5) VS BAL #9
Book Total 46
Projected: DEN (By 7) 24-17 (41)UNDER!
SAT 1:30 PM
HIGH 19 DEGREES / POSS SNOW

SYSTEM PICK:  UNDER / BAL+9.5
RICK PICK:  BAL+9.5/ UNDER 

KEY STATS

DEN 
Strength: Manning QB rating 102 vs Flacco 81 / Defense 52 sacks vs Bal 31. 
7-1 at Home.
Weakness: Weak Red Zone Defense. Absence of RB-McGehee and CB-Porter. Played Easy Season Schedule.
Injuries: RB McGehee. CB Tracy Porter

BAL 
Strength: Red Zone Defense ( 2nd).  Pumped up Ray Lewis Defense. 
Weakness: Def Line (27th)  / Off Fld-Pos (22nd) / Rush Def (18th)
Injuries: No Starters Out 

SUMMARY

UNDER
With the total set at (46) - the Over would really be about Manning lighting it up. Temps in the 20s. Manning was a Dome QB. Freezing cold combined with the good RZ Def of Bal vs Den w/out McGehee - sells me on the UNDER. The ball will be hard to catch in the cold and the field at that altitude should be a little icy - slowing down play. The wind (5mph) not a factor.



BAL +9.5
Denver's Weak RZ Def combined with Baltimore's Strong Red Zone Defense should keep it close. I "liked" BAL (+9.5) for the same reasons.  In a very cold, potentially run dominated game - I like Rice over Moreno who has not been challenged and may skate by again vs 18th ranked BAL Rush Def - but he is no McGehee and overrated in my opinion. CB Tracy Porter also out - was a game changer in the early season.  BUT! Dumerville and and Von Miller will give Flacco (35 sks) problems though vs Ravens 27th ranked Def Line and BAL has poor Off F-Pos stats - limiting their scoring opportunities, even vs a weak DEN RZ Def. Manning has only been sacked 21 times.  I like DEN (by 7) but not by 10. 

BRAIN FARTS:
1. Dumerville and Von Miller steal the show from BAL and Ray Lewis on Defense
___________________________________ 



(H) SF #6 (-3) VS GB #14
Book Total 45
Projected: SF (By 3) 24-21 (45)PUSH
SAT 5 PM
50 / CLOUDY / LIGHT WIND

SYSTEM PICK:  SF (-3)
RICK PICK:  SF (-3)

KEY STATS

SF 
Strength: Off Line 1st,  4th Rated Rush Defense. 10th Pass Def. 6-1-1 at Home
Weakness: Weak Red Zone Offense and Def.  Horrible Place Kicker
Injuries: DE Justin Smith Back! No Starters Out 

GB 
Strength: Great Red Zone Offense. 7th Pass Def. Def 47 Sacks / 18 INTs. Clay Mathews!
Weakness: 25th Off Line. 24th Rush Offense. Rodgers Sacked 51 times vs Aldon Smith 19.5 Sacks. Horrible Place Kicker
 Injuries: No Starters Out

SUMMARY

SF -3
Offensive Lines win Games. That should be the difference here. SF Off line 1st. vs GB 25th.  That's why Rodgers has been sacked 51 times and GB is 24th Rushing (Grant is an elite runner with potential though)  - they will face a Niner team 4th in Rush Def.  Those stats so far spell blow out.  

But! GB is 3rd in Red Zone Off vs SF 28th in Red Zone Def with Jordy Nelson expected to play.  GB also near last in Red Zone Def though. Rodger's will not be able to establish Run Game and be forced to pass vs 10th ranked Rush Def and the #2 Sack Leader Aldon Smith - GB OFF Line 25th. So (SF by 7) My best guess - unless they knock out Kap.


Off the Ov/Und (projected Total  42)
Weather in the 50s no problem / no wind advisories. Both Teams near last in Red Zone Def. Both teams have horrible place kickers @ 69% and 63%. That could actually be good for the OVER as they may go for it on 4th downs. But both teams Top Ten Pass Defenses - usually bad for overs. If Niner's do shut down GB for reasons underlined  above - could could make it a one sided affair and keep the score down. 


BRAIN FARTS:
1. Wouldn't surprise me if Clay Mathews broke Kaepernick and Smith came in as B-up. 
2. I like Randy Moss to have a big game.
___________________________________ 


(H) ATL #8 (-2.5) VS SEA #2
Book Total 46
Projected: SEA (By 3) 27-24 (51) OVER!
SUN 10 AM
DOME

SYSTEM PICK:  SEA (+2.5) / OVER
RICK PICK:  SEA (+2.5) / OVER

KEY STATS

ATL 
Strength: Pass Off 4th. Strong Red Zone Off / Def. 4th Pass Off. +13 T/O ratio 
Weakness: Bad Off Line and Rush Def 
Injuries: SS W MOORE QUES - 75T 1 SK 4INT - WEAK BUP

SEA

Strength: 4th Red Zone and Pass Def. 5th Rush Def. 7th Rush Off. +13 T/O ratio 
Weakness: None - 5-5 on the Road
Injuries: DE Clemens IR / PK Hauscha replaced by Longwell similar stats

SUMMARY

SEA +2.5
ATL has the 4th rated Pass Off vs the 4th ranked Pass and Red Zone Def SEA. The Achilles heel for Falcons is Rush Def (24th)  vs a versatile and effective Rush attack of SEA (7th).  Unlike last week in WAS - SEA Def will excel vs a pocket passer and pro set run game. The key will be a balanced attack by SEA Off of Option / Pass Run / Bootleg. If Wilson tries to win it just passing and running around like Fran Tarkenton - they will be 3 and out and get behind quick vs a formidable ATL pass offense.  Hoping Carrol is smart enough to return to the game plan that got them here. They are the better team if they play to their strengths  (SEA by 3).

Over (46) 
Two Explosive Offenses  playing in a dome. Oddsmakers calling ATL by 3 - so neither team expected to be shut down or blown out. Both kickers good from 50 +. 
Projected Total( 51) 27-24 

___________________________________ 

(H) NE #3 (-9.5) VS HOU #4
Book Total 47.5
Projected: NE (By 10) 35-24 (59)<OFF
SUN 1:30 PM
52 SUNNY/ WIND 5-8

SYSTEM PICK:  NE -9.5 / OVER
RICK PICK:  NE -9.5

KEY STATS

NE 
Strength: Brady with Gronkowski back. #1, 2 Red Zone, Rush Off.  7th Rush Def.
T/O Ratio +25. Played one of the Hardest schedules in NFL this season.
Weakness: Pass Def 19th (improved).
Injuries: GronKowski Back! No Starters Out 

HOU 
Strength: #4 Rush Off
Weakness: Matt Schuab poor QB play. *Defense in Decline.
Played one of the weakest schedules in NFL this season.

*(PA 17 pgm thru wk-10 now 21 pgm)
Injuries: No Starters Out  

SUMMARY

NE BY 10
With Gronlowski back and NE healthier than ever - my first inclination was to take NE to cover by 10. But, in calculating the Over - I rounded the projection done to 31-24 (Pats by 8) -The numbers do not add up for the Pats to cover. Every game last week (Wild Card) went under 40. But this week features 4 - much better offenses. You have to respect the playoffs and a top 10 def of HOU though. So, if NE averages 35 and HOU only allows 21 - you gotta cut the Pats down to 31 - Right???? Maybe not? HOU lost the last 2 games by 12 vs IND and 17 vs MIN. This is NE with Gronkowski back! The actual system projection is 38-24 NE. With a +25 T/O Ratio for NE vs Schaub who seems to have lost his arm and confidence. If Pats only weakness is Pass Def and Schuab can't pass... they could route them. I'm shaking my head and making that Lewis Black lip noise.  Enough already - NE by 10!

OVER
I like the OVER. But can't count on Schaub to keep up his end of that score. He has been pathetic passing the 2nd half of the season into the playoffs. NE does allow an average of 21 pts per game though and nets 35 on Offense. HOU PA 24 PF 26.  So the net on this game is (51) Neither Pass Def is spectacular at 19th and 14th. The Rush Def's are both Top 10 - but so  are the Rush Off's. When a Top offense met a Top Def this year - the offense won and scored.

__________________________________ 

SYSTEM PICKS DIVISIONAL PLAY OFFS

To Qualify as a System Pick a team must:
1. Win the overall Match Up Rating by 60 or more or as Dog by -35 or more (RAT)
2. Win the Offensive Line Match Up (OL)
3. Preferably win the Filed Position Match Up (FP)
4. Be Projected to cover the Spread (By) 

	HM		FAV		FG		DOG		FG		RAT		OL		FP		BY		LINE		PRO		TTL		DIF
UNDER	H		DEN		81%		BAL		90%		57		-6		24		7		-9		41		46		-5
SF	H		SF		69%		GB		63%		49		24		5		4		-3		41		44.5		-3
SEA	H		ATL		87%		SEA		83%		-59		-21		-11		-2		-2.5		51		46		5
	H		NE		83%		HOU		83%		35		5		-2		9		-9.5		60		47.5		12

SEA
As you can see above - the only team that Qualified was SEA. 

SF
Because it is the Play Offs and you cant expect the same size Rating disparities (60) as the regular season - I also qualified SF (49).

UNDER
There are 2 potential Unders and Overs. I like the DEN vs BAL over UNDER as the weather is 20 degrees.  DEN is without McGehee and BAL has a great Red Zone Def.

BETTING STRATEGY

Here's what worked for me last week.


Just because there are 4 games - does not mean you need a 4 team parlay. If you can only make one bet, and money is tight - go for it - $20 - 4 team. If not, choose the best three and your odds to win are much better.

DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS

BET #1 (3 TEAM) 
$80 TO WIN $560 
MY EARLY LINE PICKS (SYSTEM PICKS COMING WED)
SF -3 VS GB
SEA +2.5 VS ATL
NE - 9.5 VS HOU

BET #2 >4 TEAM ALL MONEY-LINE
$20 TO WIN $2150
YOU MAY FIND THIS SILLY, BUT THE MANAGER OF A POPULAR SPORTS-BOOK
SUGGESTED ALWAYS THROWING IN A CHEAP MONEY-LINE BET - ONLY TAKES ONE TO HAVE A HUGE PAYOFF. IF YOU HAVE A REALY BAD FEELING ABOUT 1 DOG - DROP IT, OR TAKE THE POINTS ON JUST THAT GAME. STILL A NICE PAY OFF - IF YOU GET LUCKY.

BET #2 >4 TEAM ALL DOGS Take Points
$30 TO WIN $420

BET #2 >4 TEAM ALL FAVORITES Give Points
$30 TO WIN $420

ou can adjust the amounts to fit your budget. Last week I hit my 3 team and the all favorite ticket for a total of $980 - total cost $160.  I like the "what the hell do I know anyway" factor in this strategy. Also, no matter what happens - you're alive through the end of the second game. So good entertainment value.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - THE EMPORERS NEW CLOTHES

I am really sick of NFL channel commentators white washing the performance of teams.

SEA - I have picked the Seahawks to win the SuperBowl. However, they did not "show up" as proclaimed on NFL Channel. In fact, they abandoned everything that got them this far. "Six" runs in the first half - for an option team? When the first series began with three passes (3 and out) -  I could not believe my eyes. Someone must have lost the play script!

At the end of the game - on 4th down - with 1:08  left - a very slow 12th Redskins defensive lineman was 20 yds away from getting off the field in time. The offensive line was set and Wilson waited to snap the ball. He then threw a pass killing the clock, effectively giving Washington one more chance to come back. The Redskins (unlike Seattle) executed the Pistol offense to perfection and would have won the game If RG3 were not injured. Not because they were the better team - but due to horrible play calling and clock management on the part of SeaHawks. 

OFFENSE
Russell Wilson has been compared to Fran Tarkenton. No disrespect intended - but Fran ran around in circles due to a lack of protection - not by design. The strength of the Seattle offense is a balanced mix of RUN / OPTION / PASS / BOOTLEG. Running around the backfield never worked for anyone - not even Michael Vick. I am now concerned about their prospects unless they return the formula that brought them this far. Hopefully Carol will recognize this and get back on track?

DEFENSE
The Hawks were not ready to play themselves when they met the Redskins at home. They will not face another pistol offense in the playoffs and should shine vs Atlanta or whomever they face. They will feel at home here on out destroying Pocket Passers and Pro set Running backs.

3-0 WILDCARD WEEKEND!

 2 TICKETS $980

$560
GB/MIN UNDER 46 - PROJECTED 32 - TOTAL 34
BAL -7 
SEA -3 

$420
HOU -4
GB -7.5 
BAL -7 
SEA -3 

WILD CARD WEEKEND!

OK enough bragging. Here's what I think of the playoffs. Sorry, I have neglected the blog for a while. Remember to visit our site each week for pre-game picks: http://www.happycapper.com/

HOU VS CIN 
We were off that game so you didn't miss anything.

GB VS MIN
Called the under nice on that one projected 32 - final 34. 
http://www.happycapper.com/Games.html

BAL VS IND - (BAL-7)
I don't love this game due to the inconsistency of Ravens offense and a defense in decline - but here's why I took Baltimore. Only real defensive weakness is the Rush Def of ravens. But Colts have no Run Game. Other than that Baltimore dominates the line of scrimmage / field position and T/O ratio. BAL 9th rated Pass Def should be able to handle Luck and Wayne. However, an overlooked MVP this year is Wayne who has carried and overrated Colts team this far. Ray Rice has 10 TDs and should shine vs 23rd Rush Def of Colts. Hate the line on this one -7 vs a quick score offense like IND. Hoping the defense will win it for Ravens and they keep a lead running Rice.

SEA VS WAS (SEA-3)
Love both teams. But, SEA has the Defense WAS is missing. RG3 and an inspired team has beat all the odds and played way above the talent level of the team. The key to Redskins win streak was the use of the full pistol offense (even mix of Run / Option / Pass / Bootleg). With RG3 less than 100% they have not run that offense like they did. In the same way - SEA need to do the same and take advantage of more naked bootlegs. Lynch will star in this one not Morris at RB who has excelled vs weak Rush Defenses. 

SUPERBOWL PREDICTION
SEA or SF vs NE or DEN.

If SEA does not stumble they should sweep the NFC

DEN will need McGehee and Tracy Porter to get past NE. Moreno is not the answer and they will find that out the hard way if they do not play McGehee in the Divisional Round.

SF wiill man handle Packers and get knocked out when they meet SEA. Kappernick will become a great QB - but he lofts the ball and that will be his demise as he faces good Pass Defenses.

NE will sweep until they meet SEA and then - You'll see one of the greatest SuperBowls ever played.

HOU - Schuab slings the ball (bad mechanics) and won't make it past NE 

ATL - Weak Rush Defense Achilles heel.

WAS - only longshot I love to root for. - But weak Defense makes them a 20-1 proposition. .

All the other teams are nothing more than also-rans. 

 

NFL HANDICAPPING RECORD 2012 61-15 80% VS NFL SPREAD

Last year we went 75% 86-28 vs the NFL spread. Everyone told me that was a fluke. With the average handicapping site averaging about 40% and the best NFL handicappers in the nation topping out this year with records around 65%. And they charge for picks? Ours are free. I too, had my doubts. We did not repeat this year - we improved to 80% 61-15.

All picks were posted prior to game times on our main site:

Recent Games:  http://www.happycapper.com/Games.html

Previous Weeks: http://www.happycapper.com/Games2012.html
 
I looked up handicapper reviews this year and was surprised how badly we beat the experts:

http://www.handicappingreviews.com/top5handicappersthisyear-for-nfl.php


Dallas Campbell
(4.52/5)
 Last 365 Day Results: (65 - 33) - 66%
http://www.411tilt.com/dallas.php


Lenny Bruce
(4.45/5)
 Last 365 Day Results: (58 - 30) - 66%
http://www.411tilt.com/lenny.php


Don Hagen
(4.1/5)
 Last 365 Day Results: (55 - 31) - 64%
http://www.foxandhoundsports.com/about-don.php


Sean Archer
(4.47/5)
 Last 365 Day Results: (69 - 39) - 64%
http://www.seanarcherpicks.com/

Our proof is in the pudding in the winning tickets posted (below). But remember -this is all for fun and never bet anything you can't afford to burn. I almost never bet more than $100 a week. Betting $1000 to win $1100 is the definition of insanity to me. There are no sure things. Gamblers don't live indoors for long in Vegas. I like watching NFL Ticket - cant do that on the street.

REG SEASON TICKETS BETS $745 WON $4581

Week 13 Falcons vs Saints.

What Could have Been. 

As the egg yoke and whites dripped down the windows of the Saints team bus the day before, it must have stirred vengeance in the hearts of the New Orleans players. Local fans in Atlanta had in essence – stoned their unwelcome rivals.  They had started the season 0-4,  without a coach and somehow still had a chance to make the playoffs with a win last night. Who would have egg on their face when this one was over – they must have thought.

Even the oddsmakers knew going in.  The outcome of this game could not be predicted with mere statistics. They set the line low at -3.5 for a 10-1 home team hosting a 5-6 division rival - with what Deon Sanders described in the pre-game as “The worst defense in NFL history.” That seemed overstated. 

Like a rematch between Sea Biscuit and Man-O-War, there were intangibles here that could not be measured; Heart and Pride. The heart, mainly that of Drew Brees. A quarterback more accurate than an archer, with the game presence of a president and the heart of a teenager. He had lost the game for his team the week before with a forced pass that was intercepted. We all knew that would not happen again. The pride, an Atlanta team at home - that in their own words, should have won the last match up easily. 

As the opening shot was fired, Matt Ryan threw a short pass to the right that could have and should have been taken to the house by Saints CB Jenkins for 6 Saints points – if tight end Gonzales had not wrestled the ball back for an eight yard gain. 

The Saints rush defense then allowed Michael Turner to run on them at will. Before you knew it, the Falcons were up 14 nothing and Deon Sanders looked more like Nostradamus than MC Hammer. Anyone hoping for a close fought cliffhanger - was surfing the channel guide for alternative programming. Then the saints found a spark and drove down for a running touchdown. 

At 17 – 7 there was hope. 

Near the end of the first half - the Saints caught fire again and drove inside the Atlanta 10 yard line. Touchdown Saints! The pass was called back by a penalty. With 35 seconds left, Brees ran two plays down to the 2 yard line. As he rallied the team to line with 7 seconds left – you watched the clock tick down to zero. 

Falcon 17 Saints 7.

Not 17-14

Not 17-10

17-7 

Only God and coaches know what really happens in a locker room at halftime. As the second half began, something was different. We watched the Saints come onto the field and there was an energy. Highlights of Brees rallying his troupes before the game resonated like an acid flashback. “This is our division, we know and they know it.” He had us too, climbing on an irresistible emotional bandwagon.

As the second half began - suddenly, the worst defense in NFL history was shutting down the 10-1 Falcons offense. Three and out. Three and out. The New Orleans offense was on fire again as well. Then it happened.  Brees about to score - forces a throw and is picked off. The Saints defense holds and there is still hope. He’s only human. Then it happens again. Brees throws a pick, Saints defense holds. Time and time again - they drove the ball down the field only to have their field general hand the ball back to the enemy. The number one scoring offense in the NFL - couldn’t score.

With about 4 minutes left in the game, down by 10, the Saints have one last chance. They mount a drive that reminded us all of all those great last minute comebacks. Then, to our dismay, it happens again. Brees, under pressure, lobs a ball over the heads of the oncoming pass rushers and completes a pass to an Atlanta defensive linemen. Falcons ball on the Saints 30. Game over. 

But like any great Odyssey - it wasn’t. With just a couple minutes left in the game - the saints defense holds up the Falcons running back and strips the ball. Saints run it in for a touchdown. We can’t believe it happened, but it did, and the Cinderella story isn’t over. The touchdown is called back, but the Saints have the ball and one more, one more last chance. And then, it happened again. His childlike enthusiasm that we love so much, had caused him to force passes - instead of taking what the defense gave him and winning a game they should have won. 

Final Score - Falcons 23. Saints 13. 

The Falcons claimed the Saints didn’t beat them in the last game – they beat themselves. Now the Saints can claim the same. 

Something ended last night. It was not the career of Drew Brees. And it was not the end of his record for consecutive TD passes that left us empty. It was the chance to witness something amazing that we lost. To quote Sea Biscuit; "Sometimes the little guy just needs a second chance"  They got one, and it would have been fun to see the the underdog beat the odds. If there is a lesson to be learned in all of this – it falls somewhere between the power of the human spirit and the value of self control. 

Sometimes we can want something so bad, we lose our patience in pursuit of it. Drew Brees, like Moses,  will not see the promised land this year. But, at the end of the day, all we can do if is be grateful for the ride.

-Rick Jansen

WEEK 13 TOP PICKS

SEA +3.5 AT CHI
They sucked without Cutler - but let's not forget Cutler sucks half the time anyway. He'll be under pressure to perform now. SEA defense should play well with Forte and Hester both hurting. Go Hawks. Love the hook + 3.5

HOU -6 @ TEN 
Yes, we all expect HOU to win by 16 every week and they have not played great the last two week. But, they win and should easily do so by 7 this week. Love the low line. 

  
        WE LOVE YOU LONG TIME CHARLIE 
                  HE'LL STEP UP THIS WEEK!

POST GAME: DID YOU FORGET HOW TO THROW? SORRY CHARLIE. 

GOOD START WEEK 12

2 WINS AND A PUSH ON MY FIRST TICKET. PAYS FOR MY WEEKEND.. 

BEATS A SHARP PENALTY FLAG IN THE EYE. 

 

WK 11 - RAVENS HUGE OVER STEELERS!

BEN IS OUT - LEFTWICH (GARY COLEMAN) IS IN!
THE RAVENS ONLY -3.5, WILL DESTROY HIS FAT ASS.
BALTIMORE ALSO HAS #2 OFF LINE VS 27TH DEF LINE OF PIT.  RAVENS OFFENSE 67% TDs IN REDZONE AND ALLOW ONLY 36% TDs RED ZONE DEFENSE.

BTW I HATE RAPISTBERGER - BUT HIS STATS ARE OF THE HOOK THIS YEAR. IF BATCH WASN'T ON IR - I WOULDN'T TOUCH THIS GAME. BUT NEITHER IS THE CASE AND LOOKS LIKE A SLAUGHTER AT HANDS OF THE RAVENS THAT THE ODDSMAKERS ARE NOT CHARGING US FOR AT -3.5. THANK YOU SPORTSBOOK.

BUSH BENCHED BY PHILBIN

If you watched the Miami vs Buffalo game Monday Night. you saw a very talented, poorly coached dolphins team. Philbin repeatedly abandons the run as soon as the other team starts passing or they lose the lead. Miami is a run team. When you have a 1000 yd rusher last year - its the coaches job to repeat that success. He's blown that completely.

Reggie will be a starting RB in the NFL next year. 
Rookie coach Philbin will be selling shoes. 

POST GAME: WINNER!

WK 10 

PICK OF THE WEEK

Watt Swats Cutler

Hou + 1.5 @ Chi 

WEEK 9 LOOKS PROMISING 

POST GAME:  5 OF 6
Miami faced a weak rush defense but only ran Bush for 10 carries and 1 impressive TD Run. Rookie coach - stupid move. Ind had Reggie Wayne and they tried to play Indies game passing. Running would have kept the ball out of Luck and Wayne's hands. Missed 5 for 5 and $3300 off $100 by a FG. It was fun though. Split the system picks into 2 x 3 team parlays and won one for $486. System called Chicago too - to go 5 of 6 for the week. Save 1 bad under call by me.

TOP PICKS

                       COVER

MUP LINE  BY    RK                        RK

WIN - 184/ -10.5 / 20.6 / (1)HOU(H) OVER (25) BUF

LOSS -136 / -2.5 / 8.4/ (4)MIAMI@ OVER (28)IND 

WIN -183 / -3.5 / 10.3 / (6)DET@ OVER (32)JAC

WIN -163 / -1.5 / 11.3/  (7)TB @ OVER (31)OAK

WIN -77/ -3.5 / 10/ (14)DEN@ OVER (26)CIN 

LIKE EM ALL 

HOU

MIA

DET

TB

DEN 

OVER / UNDER PICS 

SEA / MIN UNDER 39
WAS / CAR OVER 47

GOOD START WEEK 8 

CHANGED MY CALL TO OVER - MY BUD ALREADY BET UNDER SO GOT HIM A TICKET

WEEK 7 TOP PICKS 

SYSTEM

(PICK OF THE WEEK) >MIN @HOME -6 OVER AZ 
MIN @HOME -6 OVER AZ NO RG3 THIS WEEK - KOLB OUT FOR AZ.                     
MIN WINS AT HOME 3-0 BY AVG OF 10 INCL VS SF                    
SKELTON 1GS AND CARDS OFF LINE IS LAST IN NFL. MIN DEF LINE 3RD                    
AND OFF LINE 10TH,  MIN WILL CONTROL THE GAME                   
AZ RUSH AND PASS OFF NEXT TO LAST VS #3 PASS DEF FOR MIN             


RICK PICK

NE @HOME -10.5 OVER NYJ
HERNANDEZ WILL REPLACE BOLDEN AT RB- COULD WORK W HIS RECEIVING
NYJ HAVE HAD AN EASY SCHEDULE - SO STATS A LITTLE SKEWED.
PATS PASS DEF 7TH VS NYJ PASS OFF 25TH LONG DAY SANCHEZ
PATS RUSH OFF 3RD WILL EXPLOIT JETS 28TH RNKD RUSH DEF THIS SHOULD
OPEN UP THE PASS FOR PATS IN SPITE IF 5TH RATED PASS DEF FOR NYJ
 
 ALL MATCH UPS LIVE ONLINE NOW
http://happycapper.com/                     

With 40 seconds left in game - down by 6 - I had Sea +8.5 and under 37.5  Score 13-6 - Hawks had 4th down on their own 12. All I needed was an incomplete pass. Anything but a pic 6 or safety and SF takes over and takes a knee. I win. 

Russell wasn't even close to being sacked and short pass went for what looked like a first down. Then I see the ref signal "Safety!  an offensive lineman held while he was in the endzone. That put me down by 9 and I lose.  But wait!  Harbough calls the ref over and tells him to measure. They do - Sea inches short. Harbough declines the penalty - gives back the 2 point safety - Niners take over on downs, take a knee and I win $380. Crazy!

Must say as lucky as it was - it was a good pick. Sea dropped 5 passes and missed a FG or they would have won outright anyway. The UNDER played out perfectly - just like the system called it. 
.

Money on Manning
Down 7 you know. Down 14 your hope. Down 24 you wish.
wishes come true. 
Lightning Strikes Twice.
Rooting for Seahawks and Redskins to come back - RG3 runs for 70 yds as Russell throws a 40 yd TD pass - at exactly the same time. 

WEEK 6 WINNERS!
3 TEAM $40 TO WIN $280 / 4 TEAM $40 TO WIN $480

 

WEEK 6 TOP PICKS

PICK OF THE WEEK!
(W) DEN +1 @ SD

SYSTEM PICKS 
(L) ATL -9 HM OVER OAK
(W) SEA +3.5 @HM OVER NE
(W) SEA / NE UNDER 
(OFF) HOU -3.5 @ HM OVER GB (INJURY CUSHING OFF) 
(W) DEN +1 @ SD 

 ALL MATCH UPS LIVE ONLINE NOW
http://happycapper.com/

CALLED IT ON THE MATCH UP 

http://www.happycapper.com/WK6PITvTEN.html

ALL PICKS WILL BE LIVE BY SATURDAY

http://happycapper.com/

TIPS

Over Under Parlays
If you are going to take a team and the over or under - just to make it a parlay. Be careful taking Under if you are giving more than 7.  You may find yourself rooting for your team to cover - only to realize you went over the under to do so.


Match Ups
Look for Red (Low Rank) vs Blue (High Rank) mismatches on The Match Up grids. Last night NYJ ran a kick off back for a TD. The Hou vs NYJ Match up caught that disparity in the Special Teams category. Hou 29th vs NYJ 8th. 

CHECK OUT OUR SITE
http://www.happycapper.com/ 

WEEK 5 TOP PICKS

RICK PICS 0-2
(L) GB -7 @ IND
(L) HOU - 8 @ NYJ (kick off return for TD killed my cover by 8)

SYSTEM PICKS 7-1 Season Total 12-2
(W) HOU - 8 @ NYJ
(W) MIN @ HM -5.5 OVER TEN 
(L) BAL -6.5 @ KC 
(W) NYG -8.5 @HOME OVER CLE
(W) PHI +3.5 @ PIT 
(W) MIA +3 @ CIN
(W) CHI -5.5 @ JAC

UPSET OF THE WEEK 1-0
(W) NO - 3.5 @ HM OVER SD


GOOD LUCK!


 

From Week 4 2012

MY UPSET THE WEEK
 
(w) CAR+7 @ ATL

SYSTEM PICKS

(w) HOU -12 @ TEN

(w) DEN -7 @HOME OVER OAK

GOOD LUCK!

Welcome Back!  Week 3 2012

MY UPSET THE WEEK
 
(w) ATL +3 @ SD

GOOD LUCK!