TOP PICKS
BAL +9.5
UNDER DEN vs BAL
SF -3
SEA +2.5
OVER SEA vs ATL
NE -9.5
UNDER NE vs HOU
UNDER NE vs HOU
PRE-GAME SUMMARIES:
All Times PST
# = Total Overall Rank out of 32 teams - Regular Season
(H) DEN #1 (-9.5) VS BAL #9
Book Total 46
Projected: DEN (By 7) 24-17 (41)UNDER!
SAT 1:30 PM
HIGH 19 DEGREES / POSS SNOW
SYSTEM PICK: UNDER / BAL+9.5
RICK PICK: BAL+9.5/ UNDER
KEY STATS
DEN
Strength: Manning QB rating 102 vs Flacco 81 / Defense 52 sacks vs Bal 31.
7-1 at Home.
Weakness: Weak Red Zone Defense. Absence of RB-McGehee and CB-Porter. Played Easy Season Schedule.
Injuries: RB McGehee. CB Tracy Porter
BAL
Strength: Red Zone Defense ( 2nd). Pumped up Ray Lewis Defense.
Weakness: Def Line (27th) / Off Fld-Pos (22nd) / Rush Def (18th)
Injuries: No Starters Out
SUMMARY
With the total set at (46) - the Over would really be about Manning lighting it up. Temps in the 20s. Manning was a Dome QB. Freezing cold combined with the good RZ Def of Bal vs Den w/out McGehee - sells me on the UNDER. The ball will be hard to catch in the cold and the field at that altitude should be a little icy - slowing down play. The wind (5mph) not a factor.
BAL +9.5
Denver's Weak RZ Def combined with Baltimore's Strong Red Zone Defense should keep it close. I "liked" BAL (+9.5) for the same reasons. In a very cold, potentially run dominated game - I like Rice over Moreno who has not been challenged and may skate by again vs 18th ranked BAL Rush Def - but he is no McGehee and overrated in my opinion. CB Tracy Porter also out - was a game changer in the early season. BUT! Dumerville and and Von Miller will give Flacco (35 sks) problems though vs Ravens 27th ranked Def Line and BAL has poor Off F-Pos stats - limiting their scoring opportunities, even vs a weak DEN RZ Def. Manning has only been sacked 21 times. I like DEN (by 7) but not by 10.
BRAIN FARTS:
1. Dumerville and Von Miller steal the show from BAL and Ray Lewis on Defense
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(H) SF #6 (-3) VS GB #14
Book Total 45
Projected: SF (By 3) 24-21 (45)PUSH
SAT 5 PM
50 / CLOUDY / LIGHT WIND
SYSTEM PICK: SF (-3)
RICK PICK: SF (-3)
KEY STATS
SF
Strength: Off Line 1st, 4th Rated Rush Defense. 10th Pass Def. 6-1-1 at Home
Weakness: Weak Red Zone Offense and Def. Horrible Place Kicker
Injuries: DE Justin Smith Back! No Starters Out
GB
Strength: Great Red Zone Offense. 7th Pass Def. Def 47 Sacks / 18 INTs. Clay Mathews!
Weakness: 25th Off Line. 24th Rush Offense. Rodgers Sacked 51 times vs Aldon Smith 19.5 Sacks. Horrible Place Kicker
Injuries: No Starters Out
SUMMARY
Offensive Lines win Games. That should be the difference here. SF Off line 1st. vs GB 25th. That's why Rodgers has been sacked 51 times and GB is 24th Rushing (Grant is an elite runner with potential though) - they will face a Niner team 4th in Rush Def. Those stats so far spell blow out.
But! GB is 3rd in Red Zone Off vs SF 28th in Red Zone Def with Jordy Nelson expected to play. GB also near last in Red Zone Def though. Rodger's will not be able to establish Run Game and be forced to pass vs 10th ranked Rush Def and the #2 Sack Leader Aldon Smith - GB OFF Line 25th. So (SF by 7) My best guess - unless they knock out Kap.
Off the Ov/Und (projected Total 42)
Weather in the 50s no problem / no wind advisories. Both Teams near last in Red Zone Def. Both teams have horrible place kickers @ 69% and 63%. That could actually be good for the OVER as they may go for it on 4th downs. But both teams Top Ten Pass Defenses - usually bad for overs. If Niner's do shut down GB for reasons underlined above - could could make it a one sided affair and keep the score down.
BRAIN FARTS:
1. Wouldn't surprise me if Clay Mathews broke Kaepernick and Smith came in as B-up.
2. I like Randy Moss to have a big game.
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(H) ATL #8 (-2.5) VS SEA #2
Book Total 46
Projected: SEA (By 3) 27-24 (51) OVER!
SUN 10 AM
DOME
SYSTEM PICK: SEA (+2.5) / OVER
RICK PICK: SEA (+2.5) / OVER
KEY STATS
ATL
Strength: Pass Off 4th. Strong Red Zone Off / Def. 4th Pass Off. +13 T/O ratio
Weakness: Bad Off Line and Rush Def
Injuries: SS W MOORE QUES - 75T 1 SK 4INT - WEAK BUP
SEA
Strength: 4th Red Zone and Pass Def. 5th Rush Def. 7th Rush Off. +13 T/O ratio
Weakness: None - 5-5 on the Road
Injuries: DE Clemens IR / PK Hauscha replaced by Longwell similar stats
SUMMARY
ATL has the 4th rated Pass Off vs the 4th ranked Pass and Red Zone Def SEA. The Achilles heel for Falcons is Rush Def (24th) vs a versatile and effective Rush attack of SEA (7th). Unlike last week in WAS - SEA Def will excel vs a pocket passer and pro set run game. The key will be a balanced attack by SEA Off of Option / Pass Run / Bootleg. If Wilson tries to win it just passing and running around like Fran Tarkenton - they will be 3 and out and get behind quick vs a formidable ATL pass offense. Hoping Carrol is smart enough to return to the game plan that got them here. They are the better team if they play to their strengths (SEA by 3).
Over (46)
Two Explosive Offenses playing in a dome. Oddsmakers calling ATL by 3 - so neither team expected to be shut down or blown out. Both kickers good from 50 +.
Projected Total( 51) 27-24
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(H) NE #3 (-9.5) VS HOU #4
Book Total 47.5
Projected: NE (By 10) 35-24 (59)<OFF
SUN 1:30 PM
52 SUNNY/ WIND 5-8
SYSTEM PICK: NE -9.5 / OVER
RICK PICK: NE -9.5
KEY STATS
NE
Strength: Brady with Gronkowski back. #1, 2 Red Zone, Rush Off. 7th Rush Def.
T/O Ratio +25. Played one of the Hardest schedules in NFL this season.
Weakness: Pass Def 19th (improved).
Injuries: GronKowski Back! No Starters Out
HOU
Strength: #4 Rush Off
Weakness: Matt Schuab poor QB play. *Defense in Decline.
Played one of the weakest schedules in NFL this season.
*(PA 17 pgm thru wk-10 now 21 pgm)
Injuries: No Starters Out
SUMMARY
With Gronlowski back and NE healthier than ever - my first inclination was to take NE to cover by 10. But, in calculating the Over - I rounded the projection done to 31-24 (Pats by 8) -The numbers do not add up for the Pats to cover. Every game last week (Wild Card) went under 40. But this week features 4 - much better offenses. You have to respect the playoffs and a top 10 def of HOU though. So, if NE averages 35 and HOU only allows 21 - you gotta cut the Pats down to 31 - Right???? Maybe not? HOU lost the last 2 games by 12 vs IND and 17 vs MIN. This is NE with Gronkowski back! The actual system projection is 38-24 NE. With a +25 T/O Ratio for NE vs Schaub who seems to have lost his arm and confidence. If Pats only weakness is Pass Def and Schuab can't pass... they could route them. I'm shaking my head and making that Lewis Black lip noise. Enough already - NE by 10!
OVER
I like the OVER. But can't count on Schaub to keep up his end of that score. He has been pathetic passing the 2nd half of the season into the playoffs. NE does allow an average of 21 pts per game though and nets 35 on Offense. HOU PA 24 PF 26. So the net on this game is (51) Neither Pass Def is spectacular at 19th and 14th. The Rush Def's are both Top 10 - but so are the Rush Off's. When a Top offense met a Top Def this year - the offense won and scored.
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