PostGame - Miracle at Motown!
I honestly believe that luck is progressive. It makes sense mathematically. You keep pulling that handle - the slot gets full and eventually spits out coins. If you chase bets in a casino - you can lose your house that way too - but you know what I mean. Knowing we were due for a little "good luck" truly was a big part of why I bet tonight. It was a good match up for GB - but in addition - we have had so much bad luck we really were due for a little good.
I could not have imagined, in my wildest dreams, how much luck it would take for us to win tonight. It's all part of history now. Framing that ticket.
Yeah that just Happened....
(2nd Half) - Packers Scoreless. (DET 20 -0)
(5:48 3rd Quarter) GB recovers own fumble in End Zone. (DET 20-7)
(4:06 3rd Quarter) Rodgers to Adams end zone TD! (DET 20-14)
(7:07 4th Quarter) Lions FG - Ouch! This is Over. (DET 23-14)
(3:04 4th Quarter) 3rd /11 - Rodgers forced out of Pocket runs 20yds TD! (DET 23-21)
(0:06 4th quarter)
Keep in mind at this point - 6 Seconds Left - We Have GB -2.5 / Over 47
So, GB can win with a FG but not cover and would Push the Over (47) = We Lose.
(0:06 4th quarter) GB from their own 21
Aaron Rodgers short pass to Jones
Jones tosses it back to Rodgers, he turns and throws it back to Aaron Rodgers
Rodger pulled down - Game Over - Wait - "We got a flag! Facemask called on DET.
(It was a bad call - Lions Defender grazed but never pulled on Facemask - not 15 yds)
GB gets the 15 yd penalty - moves the ball to the GB 40.
Fortunately for us out of FG range.
(Last Play of the Game - for real this time)
Rodgers from shotgun - rolls left - sacked - no - gets away - rolls right
Sets up to throw - launches it high and deep 70 yards! -
Richard Rodgers backs into end zone - leaps - catches it - TD!
The packers go nuts - clipboards flying - arms raised - Packers Win!
(Final) GB 27-23
GB -2.5 BY 4 OVER 47 (50)
This has to be a first:
WR- Richard Rodgers to QB - Aaron Rodgers
Next Play
QB -Aaron Rodgers to WR - Richard Rodgers
Watch Video
@RickOnTheStrip
PreGame _________________
Bank Bet
GB -2.5 @DET (47) Over
Projected GB 34 -21 (55)
I did not plan on betting this game at all. However, the line dropped to less than a FG and GB does look really good in the Match Up - as does the Over. The bank has $41 Spare change so I went for it. The knock with this game is that GB is 31st in Schedule Strength, but DET is 21st. They don't win Off Line - but neither does DET. Packers do not win Red Zone Def - But neither does DET - thus the Over. GB does win Pass Off Big!
If you look at Overall Off vs Def in the middle of the Match Up (below) - GB Blue on both Sides and DET Red on both. I know I swore off parlays - But - We're not risking much and stand to make a nice gain if we hit. I do think Green Bay has something to Prove tonight after losing to the Lions at home. Hard to beat a team twice in the same year. Especially one that has had your number for a decade. Go Packers! Run it up guys - just win by 3 Pack.
Head to Head
Bank Receipt
Post Game
REALLY?
I called CLE +1.5 Over 35.5
27-27 42 seconds left in the 4th Quarter - Browns Pick Schaub or the 2nd time ( I called that too). CLE Inside the BAL 40. A pass play takes 6 seconds - So they had time for 6 plays before they had to kick a FG. With 2 times outs left - They let 20 seconds run off the clock and slide in bounds. Down to 8 seconds and 1 time out - Run to hash and used last time out. No time left but for a FG. A 50 yd FG is lower trajectory than a 30 yarder - Blocked - Run back for Ravens TD.
What do you have to do to call a winner in the NFL these days?
I think it i requires Voodoo and help from the Illuminati. LOL
@CLE -4.5 vs BAL (41.5)
See Match Up notes below. There are so many potential scenarios for this game. Stats love Ravens - But with Schaub at QB and Forsett gone - you cant really go by that. Browns could get a ton of 3 and out and turnovers out of Schaub and run away with this one at home. As much as I would love to add a win and a few bucks to the bank - I'm not gonna just throw bank money at a Dicey pick.
(OFF)
My Personal Pick - Off the Record
Raven win Pass Offense - But with Schaub at QB and Weak BAL Red Zone Defense ...
(This Ones for You Reid if it hits)
6 Point Teaser
CLE +1.5 OVER 35.5
HEAD TO HEAD
X
I'll post a Match for Tomorrow Night in the Morning.
Keep in Mind Schaub in for Flacco. Makes Browns look good they will need to win Match Up to become a Bet. I'll Post by Noon Tomorrow.
We have never finishes less than 60% in our 5 yr history. I realized today it would not take much to get to 60% this yr. If our picks hit this weekend - we would at 59% with a $200 Gain for the year. One hell of a ride this week. It was Payday or Malay. Turned out to be more of a Malay. But - we have at least 30 or 40 more picks left in the season - Plenty of time to get there.
Just so you know - I Bet my own money on every pick I posted. I was not trying to go overboard this week - I believed in every pick we made (See Game Notes). Luck played a part in every game - each could have easily been a win for us. I do think luck is progressive and we are due. We did learn a lot and confirm several things moving forward this week (See Summary Below)
Game Notes:
PHI +8.5
System Pick won Match up and we teased - But bet on a Team in Disarray - My Bad.
CAR PK @DAL
Solid Call and Good Double Down when same game was Killed on Teaser Parlay
STL +9 @ CIN
Good Rams defense getting 9 made sense - But Weak Rams Offense vs Hot Bengals Offense made it a Dicey call on my part.
TB + 3 @IND
Bucs dominated Match Up and game 1st half - but Trending Colts team - Dicey call on my part.
NYG - WAS OVER (47)
Solid Over Statistically - Lesson Learned - No More Over or Unders
BUF +6 @ KC
Was a Great Call - Refs Gave the Game to KC - Rex to Dumb to Challenge - Twice.
MIN+1 @ ATL
Was a Great Call - Made Sense and Won
ARI -9.5 @SF
System tells me not to bet a team that does not win Red Zone - Cards didn't and lost.
NE -2.5 @ DEN
Good Call - Pats Dominated - Refs Gave the Game to Broncos - Bad - Game changing Calls on them all night. Denver played week 2nd half - But without the bad calls - Pats win and cover easy.
Summary
Losing only has value if you learn from it - we did. Sharpened our game going into the rest of the season. Here's what we learned for certain:
1. No Parlays - Teasers or otherwise.
2. No Over / Unders
3. Bad Red Zone Offense - No Bet - OK to Give - just make sure scoring stats are there.
4. If a Bet feels Dicey - Call Off - Every Win and Loss is Valuable.
I Promised we will get to 60% and make a Profit - Nothing has Changed.
Gotta Shake it off, Put it Behind Us and Rest up for Next Week
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I could place it safe and pack it in after the big Panthers win. However, there are games that just make sense to me.
A couple teams I like STL and BUF are getting 9 and 6.
I like 2 bad defenses with great pass offenses - the Giants and Redskins to run it up and go over 47
TB scares me but is getting 3 and wins the match up big vs Colts - Hopefully the system is right, or we lose by a FG and push.
System predicts 3 and out by Denver and We got the Pats by less than FG - Belichick has made a living winning without his start players - pets hope than continues.
I just added MIN+1 @ ATL - Freeman out for Falcons who have lost to 3 much weaker teams 3 weeks in a row. Vikings have been money all yr long vs good defenses.
I said I was looking for domination or to take points. The line dropped to ARI -9.5 (Wynn) Cardinals should Dominate SF. SEA bet SF 29-13 - Cards have an strong defense too and better offense. ARI ran up 34 vs #4 Ranked CIN Defense, SF very weak defense. RB Hyde still out for SF - look for 3 and outs and Cards to Route.
STL +9 @ CIN
TB + 3 @IND
NYG - WAS OVER (47)
BUF +6 @ KC
NE -2.5 @ DEN
MIN+1 @ ATL
ARI -9.5 @SF (Late addition - Line Dropped "Wynn")
ADJUSTED BANK RECEIPT
HEAD TO HEAD
(Left Click, Right Click- Left Click - View Image - Magnify)
BANK RECEIPT
GAMES WE'RE OFF AND WHY
