@WAS -7 vs CAR (51)
Projected WAS 37-28
Off this Game
Can't count on Cousins or Panthers. CAR tends to comeback late and keep high scoring games close. CAR +7 and Over best guess?
However, the System has called Monday Night much better than I and likes the Skins to Cover?
Barely?
Head to Head
@NE-6.5 vs BAL (45.5)
Projected NE 24-14 (38)
Off this game, but here's our preview:
PATRIOTS
I liked Ravens at first, but BAL Pass defense is 24th? Pats were bad in Red Zone without Gronk vs LA (only projected at 45% tonight). Amendola also out, but mainly a return specialist. Look for a full dose of Blount and swing passes to White. Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell are still valid targets with more reps in practice now that Gronk is gone for the yr.
RAVENS
Ravens lose on Rush Defense but projected at 79% in the Red Zone tonight. Pita, Wallace and Smith have serious game. If they try to Run 1st - game over. They lose the Rush Offensive Match Up. But, if Ravens Pass 1st to set up the Run, they could in outright.
TOTAL
Coin toss: Up to the Ravens Offensive Coordinators calls...
If Ravens try to Run First and Flacco is under pressure - UNDER.
If Ravens Pass First to set up Run - OVER.
HEAD TO HEAD
I've got 2 System Picks I feel solid about. Both Qualify Straight up!.
$50 2 Team Parlay
ARI-1.5 @MIA
ATL-6 @LA
3 more I like enough to add as System Picks
$50 3 Team Parlay
CIN-5.5 @CLE
@BUF+3 vs PIT
DAL-3 @NYG
Added: Under MIN/JAC and Over PHI/WAS
SNAPSHOT
HEAD TO HEAD
@KC-3 vs OAK (46)
Projected OAK 32-27 (59)
This game is good and bad. Previous post - Stay off 2 hot teams, but look for Dog projected to Win getting points. This game features both? KC great Pass Rush, but Carr only avg 1 per game? OAK must pass 1st to set up run. KC just the opposite.
The system made a great call on Ravens routing Miami and Tampa over SD!
2 LESSONS
1. Gut + Stats
When I look at the the list of games at the beginning of the week - and make some gut picks - then check them against the head to head stats - we do better. This week we had a few game featuring 2 hot teams - stay away from those.
We are looking for:
A. Lopsided Wins
B. Teams projected to win that are getting points.
2. 2 Team Parlays
We hit 1 - 4 teamer, but 2 Teamers are just easier to win on a consistent basis, and pay enough at 2.5 -1 to make a profit.
IND -1.5 @ NYJ (48.5)
Projected NYJ 23-20 (43)
Defensive Injuries have me (OFF) off this game.
Two struggling offenses, Only the Jets win any Offensive math up + 14 on Rush Offense. So, it sets up as a nice 2 Team with Under and the Jets. However, Colts have OLB Mathis and SS Geathers (OUT). The Jets have a litany of Defensive injuries that could not only take it OVER with the Colts injuries, But possibly allow Colts to tear into the Jets 2nd string defense.
If I did bet it - It would be a 2 team Teaser with Jets and the Over
HEAD TO HEAD
SNAPSHOT
HEAD TO HEAD (PART 1)
HEAD TO HEAD (PART 2)
Note:
Dallas first play from scrimmage was a 12 yd run. Than they kept trying to pass and failed.
System called it that they could run easy and needed to run in ordeer to set up the pass.
Too bad they didn't know that. Cowboys would have covered easy and the total would have gone over.
DAL-3 @MIN (44)
Projected DAL 30-20
Cowboys shut down Vikings Run Game giving them 3&Outs.
Elliot Runs all over them. This sets up the pass for DAL.
Cowboys Weak Pass Defense lets MIN stay in it and takes it Over the Total.
System Pick DAL/Over
Bet $50 2 Team Parlay DAL/Over
HEAD TO HEAD
Note:
Full Player stats on other games SAT
BANK UP!
RECORD UP!
We went 4-0 last week and 2-0 this week.
After 12 weeks:
Bank Up $72
Record 58%
Close 2nd to the Best Pros in the world
And We're Free!
This Week was Like Frogger!
The system really came in handy, calling us off some heavy favorites . I Listened to the system and bet the 2 games that made the most sense. Dodged a few others and made it across the street safe.
________________________________
Early Monday
Note:
I just called off the Monday Night game. Gonna take the money and run.
Eagles RB Mathews was just ruled (Out) and Sproles (Probable) is nursing sore ribs.
After
a closer look, The numbers for Wenz are down anyway. May still be a
decent bet with PHI at home, but why risk giving back money or wins.
On to Week 13!
System Picks
2 Team Parlay $50
Pit -8 @Colts
Projected PIT 27-13
NYG -7 @CLE
Projected NYG 27-6
CALLING OFF MONDAY NIGHT
PHI RB Mathews (Out) Sproles nursing sore ribs.
Wenz production is down anyway.
Rodgers Monday Night?
May still be a good pick but were off Side and Over!
Head to Head
All Games
We will post full player stats next week
Whew!
Last minute 4 team Parlay hits! "Were Baaack"
Someone very special needed help last week. Some things are more important than sports or gambling. So, I had to pick some teams last minute. I pulled some system data on a few games I liked and gave it my best shot.
As you know, our bank started at $500. I pointed out in week 1 - we could lose a bunch and just hit 1 - 3 team parlay in week 10, and fill the bank right back up. I played a few extra night games so we were down to $67 last week. That left just 2 - $33 bets for us, for the rest of the season. Talk about pressure. But, we hit a 4 teamer and put the bank back up to $397.
The 4 wins with no losses also bumped our Season Record up to 31-24 (56%). that is just a few points off the best Handicapping records in the World right now (60%).
We are currently 3rd vs the Pros (And we don't charge for picks).
SORRY FAMILY EMERGENCY - BACK TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK
4 team Parlay $33 Pays $330
Gut Picks:
@DAL -7 vs BAL
NE - 12 @ SF
@SEA - 6.5 VS PHI
BUF +2.5 @CIN
CIN-1 @NYG (47)
Projected CIN 26-23 (49)
Like CIN/Over
Bengals
Win Rush and Pass Offense by 8+. They should be very successful on Offense.
However, they are 1-3 on the Road vs NYG 3-1 @Home
Giants
Lose on Rush Offense, But Win Pass Offense Big +13.
However, they are without Cruz tonight and a starting left guard.
Side
With Cruz Out - I give the edge to CIN to cover 3.
Total
Both Teams Win Pass Offense Big, I like the OVER
Fantasy
CIN
Start Dalton, Start RBs and WRs
NYG
Sit RBs, Start Manning and WRs
Head to Head
HEAD TO HEAD PART 1
HEAD TO HEAD PART 2
@BAL -7.5 vs CLE (44)
Projected BAL 27-16 (43)
Ravens should Roll by 10. Should go Over?
BUF +7 @SEA (43.5)
Projected BUF 30-23 (53)
SEA
Have a Home Network Night Game
Hawks Lose on Offense. They win Turnovers by 1
DE Bennett and SS Chancellor are out.
BUF
Traveling Cross Country, But had time to adjust since it's a Monday Night Game.
Bills actually Win Rush (7) and Pass Offense (2). They win Big Rushing. Need to Run First to set up Pass. Let's hope they are smart enough to do that this time.
Most Offensive Starters (including McCoy & Bush) were Limited in Practice Sat, so, Probable Tonight.
They are missing some Receivers so they brought Percy Harvin out of Retirement. That should be fun to watch vs his old team. He could actually factor tonight.
Last time Bills needed to Run and they Passed. Result 3 & Outs and a loss. That will be the Key to tonights game, Along with the Bills Defense Forcing 3 & Outs off Wilson and a Poorly Coached SEA Offense. Bills Must Run First or Lose. Maybe, If McCoy really is ready to play they will. If not- they need to use the QB Option with whomever they have in the backfield. They had success with that, but ran it once and never made it a habit. They need to - with our without McCoy.
HEAD TO HEAD
Over is "Not" Qualified - Does Not count Toward Season Record
BUF +7 @SEA (43.5)
Projected BUF 30-23 (53)
SEA
Have a Home Network Night Game
Hawks Lose on Offense. They win Turnovers by 1
DE Bennett and SS Chancellor are out.
BUF
Traveling Cross Country, But had time to adjust since it's a Monday Night Game.
Bills actually Win Rush (7) and Pass Offense (2). They win Big Rushing. Need to Run First to set up Pass. Let's hope they are smart enough to do that this time.
Most Offensive Starters (including McCoy & Bush) were Limited in Practice Sat, so, Probable Tonight.
They are missing some Receivers so they brought Percy Harvin out of Retirement. That should be fun to watch vs his old team. He could actually factor tonight.
Last time Bills needed to Run and they Passed. Result 3 & Outs and a loss. That will be the Key to tonights game, Along with the Bills Defense Forcing 3 & Outs off Wilson and a Poorly Coached SEA Offense. Bills Must Run First or Lose. Maybe, If McCoy really is ready to play they will. If not- they need to use the QB Option with whomever they have in the backfield. They had success with that, but ran it once and never made it a habit. They need to - with our without McCoy.
HEAD TO HEAD
Over is "Not" Qualified - Does Not count Toward Season Record
Bank Bet
SnapShot
Head to Head (Part 1)
Head to Head (Part 2)
Note:
I posted a Rough Projected Score for ATL Thursday 27-20. The actual Head to Head Projected even closer 36-26 to Final Score 43-28. They Covered and it went Over. We Had ATL Covering Pregame - so counts toward record. Total was Under pregame, So Even though Head to Head was Over and I bet the Over, that does Not count toward record.
Parody = Lower Bar
Parody is so bad now days - I Qualify a Team if they Cover Spread by 4. Teams used to have to Win Rush Offense & Pass Offense by 4 or 5 Ranks, and Red Zone Offense (60%+) as well to Qualify. But, these days almost none do. This is NOT a High Bar! But as you can see above - Only ATL Qualified for both Head to Head and Spread this week. Pretty Pathetic.
Called Both Sides Last 2 TNF
____________________________
Pregame
ATL-4.5 @ TB (49.5)
Projected ATL 27-20
TB Loses big on Rush Offense. Could provide 3 and Outs for ATL and Tire out TB Defense. Ryan and Falcons could Run Up, But TB good PassD so its tricky. Like ATL by 7, But TB tends to play ATL well and are at home. So, they could keep it close and Total could go Over?
All Games Head to Head will be Posted by Saturday.
Capping Coaching?
No Flukes this week. Calling Tendencies perfectly. But Offensive coordinators making really bad calls. Verses Weak Pass Offense and Strong Rush Defense - Viking Run? Made Cutler Look Good.
Good News!
Hit Both Sides of the Thursday Night Game.
Did it Again This Week 2!
SnapShot
MIN -4.5 @CHI (41)
Projected MIN 26-6 (32)
Pick > MIN -4.5
Case for MIN
Vikings should get 3 & Outs Off Bears and capitalize thru the Air.
They need to Throw First to Open up Run and Take a Lead, Cutler bad from behind.
Also Cutler projected at 4 Saks. MIN Wins turnovers by +1, So, with Saks I'd give them 2.
Cutler is just Bad, so is his attitude. CHI Injuries @ WR, RB and LB. Vikings Roll by 10+
Case for CHI
Not much, They have a good Rush Def. They can stop the MIN Run Game. But would need to step up on Pass Def and Throw the Ball. They wont be able to Run on Vikings 9th Ranked Rush Def. It's a Big Ask. Bears will need Turnovers and Luck to stay in this one.
Head to Head
Fantasy Players
Start:
QB: Bradford
WRs: Diggs, Thielen
TE: Rudolph
Sit
RBs both Teams
Note: MIN Pass may set up Run, Asiata may gets some yards. McKinnon listed (Doubtful)
For you Fantasy Fans!
Next to each Player is his Yards Per Game / TDs Year To Date
Beside that - you will see Projected YPG Vs the Opponent
Also TDs Allowed Per Game by Opponent (Vs)
3 BETS THIS WEEK
9 SYSTEM PICKS
SNAPSHOT
For you Fantasy Fans!
Next to each Player is his Yards Per Game / TDs Year To Date
Beside that - you will see Projected YPG Vs the Opponent
Also TDs Allowed Per Game by Opponent (Vs)
HEAD TO HEAD ( Part 1)
(Click, View Image, Magnify)
HEAD TO HEAD (Part 2)
@ TEN -3 vs JAX (43.5)
Projected TEN 24-20 (40)
(We are OFF this Game)
As you can see, we have the total and Line about the same as the Sportsbook.
Case for TEN
They win Big on Rush Offense. So, big night for Murray @ Home Network Night Game?
They also win on Turnovers and JAX loses Big on Rush Offense. So, they should get 3 and Outs, But Titans do "not" dominate on Offense so may not capitalize. If 3& Outs Tires out JAX Defense the Run should open the Pass and they could Route them, They are projected at 80% in the Red Zone. JAX 40%. Jag's also average over 100 yds per game in Penalties, and are on the Road, another advantage for TEN.
Case for JAX
Not much. But, the TEN 2ndary is hurting with and many as 3 starters out. This could open up the pass for Bortles. If so, they could keep it close.
Total
Off the Total. We project it at 3 UNDER the Total. But If I were to bet both Sides tonight - I'd Take TEN to route them at Home and take it OVER.
HEAD TO HEAD
Snap Shot (System Pretty Accurate)
Nearly Called the Exact Score on CIN game. Predicted Tie ARI v SEA. Predicted Total within 1 Point on 5 Games. Accurately Predicted Turnovers by 5 Teams (See Head to Heads)
System Doing it's Job - Can't Predict Flukes
If you watch the games we handicap, it's like having a crystal ball. The predicted tendencies almost always show up. However, there are some things you just can't predict, Like:
1. CHI vs GB
As Predicted: Chicago Defense Stalled Rodgers. Was staying within 7.
Fluke: Hoyer Broken Arm, Rookie with NO Snaps finished the game = 3 & Outs = GB Win
2. WAS vs DET
As Predicted: WAS Dominated DET on Defense,
Fluke: WAS 2 Fumbles on Scoring Drives, 2 Missed FGs.
3. BUF vs MIA
As Predicted: Played a Weak Rush Defense with a Strong Pass defense
Fluke: 1 Run Option = TD for Bills. The Bills did Nothing but Pass, = 3 and Outs = Loss.
4. BAL vs NYJ
As Predicted: BAL Defense dominated vs Gino
Fluke: Jets QB Fitz was reported as (OUT) for this game - He (PLAYED) and won.
5. CIN vs CLE
As Predicted: Bengals Dominated and Covered 10 easy.
6. HOU vs DEN UNDER
As Predicted: Seriously? Called the Under perfectly. Texans 6-0 1st Qtr
Fluke: HOU Fumble Red Zone, Incomplete Pass Ruled Fumble?
This can't keep happening every week, Gonna trust the system the be ahead by year end. If it doesn't work, I replace myself with a Monkey and a Dart Board.
Record / Bank Balance
