NFL PICKS SUPERBOWL

NE -3 vs ATL (59)
Projected ATL 23-20 (43)
Bet $100 ATL+3 / Under 59

Injuries
New England: 3 Receivers, DE, MLB Questionable (All Expected to Play)

Atlanta: None

Match Up 
The Falcons are the best Offense the Pats face all year. The Pats are the best Defense the Falcons will play. A closer look at the numbers reveals that although Pats Allow about 7 points Less per game - ATL Scores 14 More points per game. If you do the math - that gives the edge to ATL by 7 - which is what the system predicts 27-20 ATL.  I factored the Pats 3rd ranked Rush Defense and Stingy 25% allowed in the Red Zone and took 4 points Off ATL - 23-20. 

The Pats are projected at 62% in the Red Zone - ATL only 49%. But Falcons score often outside the 20. 

Edge
The Match Up is fairly even - But Falcons Win Pass Offense. Pats have a strong Rush Defense, But If Falcons Pass First to Set up Run - They Win. They have an arsenal of healthy targets and should be able to do that. (ATL by 3).

Total 
Although I like Falcons to Outscore Pats - I'm Talking by 3 - 7 points.  They wont Run it up vs the New England Defense. They will sustain drives and keep Brady off the field long enough to to keep him from posting a huge number either. (Under 59) 


Head to Head
  

Bank Bet

 

NFL PICKS CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND (RECAP)

WHEW! 
ALL OR NOTHING AND WE HIT A 3 TEAMER!
BANK UP TO $700!

NFL PICKS CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

All or Nothing!

We are currently 56% and Tied for 3rd vs the Pros. So a good solid record for the season so far. 3 Wins this week could take us to 58% and 2nd place?

However, I'd like to go out on top Money-wise too. I said at the beginning of the year - one 3 team parlay can take the bank from 0 - $600. I'm betting our last $100 on the Conference Championships. Lets hope we can this week!  

BTW, next year, I will focus on 2 Team Parlays with an occasional 3 team - to produce more winning tickets. If you figure our wins as straight bets (+11) - we'd be up about +1000.

WEEK 19 (RECAP)

2-1

KC just didn't show up. 6 Dropped Passes and still Tied it Up at the End, if not for the Holding Call. Brutal. But PIT just played better. 

 

NFL PICKS DIVISIONAL ROUND

All Picks Count Toward Record...

WEEK 18 RECAP

SYSTEM DOWN - WILL UPDATE NEXT WEEK

NFL PICKS WEEK 18 WILD CARD (SUNDAY)

HEAD TO HEAD

BANK

NFL PICKS WEEK 18 WILD CARD

HEAD TO HEAD

BANK

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 17 RECAP

3-1

Seattle is back to it's old ways, 3 games in a row. Wilson scrambling around the backfield. When they stay vertical - short passes, boots and runs they are hard to beat. When they don't - they cost us money. Our only loss this week. 

BANK

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 17 2016

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

BANK BETS


SNAPSHOT

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 16 XMAS DAY

@PIT-5.5 vs BAL (46)
Projected PIT 37-13

PIT wins Rush and Pass Offense Big!
Raven's can't Run on them = 3&Outs = Route. 

System Pick $50 PIT -5.5

HEAD TO HEAD

 
 

NFL PICKS WEEK 16 RECAP 2016

DAMN I KNEW IT!
My plan at the beginning of the week was to lay off, lay low, and not bet a single game. Sometimes good stats can't compensate for bad lines and bad match-ups. Let the leaders take the hit. Don Anthony 2-1 stayed at 64%, but the T2s (sure enough) dropped from 59% to 57%*.

If I had laid off - we would be alone in 2nd at 59%. Instead, gave away 3 losses - Dropped 2% and lost $100. This after "I" predicted this as a "bad" week to bet!

Lesson learned - Trust your Gut!  The Good news - we played conservative and only bet 3 games - not 8!  Still T2 57% (and we're free!). 

BTW, if you're new to handicapping records - the link below lists the top pros in Vegas - that charge for picks. The standard is 52.9% in order to cover the vig (sportsbook fees) and make money. So, we are still way ahead of the game...

* http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/ 

We did make some great calls - predicting that JAX could win. Cleveland would get 1st win, and SF over LA. Also the bank is still up - so we can afford a $100 bet each of the coming weeks.1, 3 team parlay pays 6-1 and will more than double our money on the year

NFL PICKS WEEK 16 2016

ALERT!
12 SATURDAY GAMES! 

Books Clean Up this week? 
I predict the books clean up this week. Way too many games that could go either way, or where the spread turned a good pick bad. I was going to take the week off - but found 3 I feel good about.

Update -Thursday Night
Books took all the early money! I do not trust the stats or projections much this week vs really tough games and spreads. Here's our final bank bets..

BANK BETS

SNAPSHOT

WEEK 15 RECAP 8-1

8-1 vs NFL SPREAD!
BANK UP to $650!
59% on the Season

Only loss was BAL -5.5
Flacco up by 14 -  threw a pic inside the Eagles Red Zone.
Eagles went for 2 points after two Quick TDs and lost by 1.

WEEK 15 MONDAY NIGHT 2016

@WAS -7 vs CAR (51)
Projected WAS 37-28
Off this Game

Can't count on Cousins or Panthers. CAR tends to comeback late and keep high scoring games close. CAR +7 and Over best guess? 

However, the System has called Monday Night much better than I and likes the Skins to Cover?
Barely? 

Head to Head

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 15 2016

SNAPSHOT

Bank Bets

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 14 RECAP

TOMORROW

WEEK 14 MONDAY NIGHT 2016

@NE-6.5 vs BAL (45.5)
Projected NE 24-14 (38)

Off this game, but here's our preview:

PATRIOTS
I liked Ravens at first, but BAL Pass defense is 24th? Pats were bad in Red Zone without Gronk vs LA (only projected at 45% tonight). Amendola also out, but mainly a return specialist. Look for a full dose of Blount and swing passes to White. Edelman, Hogan and Mitchell are still valid targets with more reps in practice now that Gronk is gone for the yr. 

RAVENS
Ravens lose on Rush Defense but projected at 79% in the Red Zone tonight. Pita, Wallace and Smith have serious game. If they try to Run 1st - game over. They lose the Rush Offensive Match Up. But, if Ravens Pass 1st to set up the Run, they could in outright.  

TOTAL
Coin toss: Up to the Ravens Offensive Coordinators calls...

If Ravens try to Run First and Flacco is under pressure - UNDER.

If Ravens Pass First to set up Run - OVER.

HEAD TO HEAD

 

WENFL PICKS WEEK 14 OTHER GAMES

PART 1

PART2

NFL PICKS WEEK 14 2016

I've got 2 System Picks I feel solid about. Both Qualify Straight up!. 

$50 2 Team Parlay
ARI-1.5 @MIA
ATL-6 @LA

3 more I like enough to add as System Picks  

$50 3 Team Parlay
CIN-5.5 @CLE
@BUF+3 vs PIT
DAL-3 @NYG

Added: Under MIN/JAC and Over PHI/WAS 

SNAPSHOT

 
 
HEAD TO HEAD

NFL PICKS WEEK 14 THRUSDAY NIGHT

@KC-3 vs OAK (46)
Projected OAK 32-27 (59)

This game is good and bad. Previous post - Stay off 2 hot teams, but look for Dog projected to Win getting points. This game features both? KC great Pass Rush, but Carr only avg 1 per game? OAK must pass 1st to set up run. KC just the opposite.

NFL PICKS WEEK 13 RECAP

The system made a great call on Ravens routing Miami and Tampa over SD!

2 LESSONS

1. Gut + Stats
When I look at the the list of games at the beginning of the week - and make some gut picks - then check them against the head to head stats - we do better. This week we had a few game featuring 2 hot teams - stay away from those.

We are looking for:

A. Lopsided Wins

B. Teams projected to win that are getting points.

2. 2 Team Parlays
We hit 1 -  4 teamer, but 2 Teamers are just easier to win on a consistent basis, and pay enough at 2.5 -1 to make a profit. 

 



 

NFL PICKS WEEK 13 MONDAY NIGHT

IND -1.5 @ NYJ (48.5)
Projected NYJ 23-20 (43)

Defensive Injuries have me (OFF) off this game.

Two struggling offenses, Only the Jets win any Offensive math up + 14 on Rush Offense. So, it sets up as a nice 2 Team with Under and the Jets. However, Colts have OLB Mathis and SS Geathers (OUT). The Jets have a litany of Defensive injuries that could not only take it OVER with the Colts injuries, But possibly allow Colts to tear into the Jets 2nd string defense.

If I did bet it - It would be a 2 team Teaser with Jets and the Over 

HEAD TO HEAD

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 13 2016

SNAPSHOT

 








HEAD TO HEAD (PART 1)

HEAD TO HEAD (PART 2)

Note:
Dallas first play from scrimmage was a 12 yd run. Than they kept trying to pass and failed. 
System called it that they could run easy and needed to run in ordeer to set up the pass. 
Too bad they didn't know that. Cowboys would have covered easy and the total would have gone over. 

NFL PICKS WEEK 13 THURSDAY NIGHT

DAL-3 @MIN (44)
Projected DAL 30-20 

Cowboys shut down Vikings Run Game giving them 3&Outs. 
Elliot Runs all over them. This sets up the pass for DAL.
Cowboys Weak Pass Defense lets MIN stay in it and takes it Over the Total.

System Pick DAL/Over
Bet $50 2 Team Parlay DAL/Over

HEAD TO HEAD

Note:
Full Player stats on other games SAT

WEEK 12 RECAP

BANK UP!
RECORD UP!

We went 4-0 last week and 2-0 this week. 

After 12 weeks:

Bank Up $72

Record 58%

Close 2nd to the Best Pros in the world
And We're Free!

 

 

This Week was Like Frogger!
The system really came in handy, calling us off some heavy favorites . I Listened to the system and bet the 2 games that made the most sense. Dodged a few others and made it across the street safe. 
 

________________________________

Early Monday

Note: 
I just called off the Monday Night game. Gonna take the money and run. 
Eagles RB Mathews was just ruled (Out) and Sproles (Probable) is nursing sore ribs.
After a closer look, The numbers for Wenz are down anyway. May still be a decent bet with PHI at home, but why risk giving back money or wins.

On to Week 13!

NFL PICKS WEEK 12 2016

System Picks


2 Team Parlay $50
Pit -8 @Colts
Projected PIT 27-13
NYG -7 @CLE 
Projected NYG 27-6


CALLING OFF MONDAY NIGHT
PHI RB Mathews (Out) Sproles nursing sore ribs.
Wenz production is down anyway.
Rodgers Monday Night? 
May still be a good pick but were off Side and Over!



Head to Head

All Games

We will post full player stats next week 

NFL PICKS WEEK 11 RECAP (3rd best vs Pros)

Whew!
Last minute 4 team Parlay hits! "Were Baaack"
Someone very special needed help last week. Some things are more important than sports or gambling. So, I had to pick some teams last minute. I pulled some system data on a few games I liked and gave it my best shot. 

As you know, our bank started at $500. I pointed out in week 1 - we could lose a bunch and just hit 1 - 3 team parlay in week 10, and fill the bank right back up. I played a few extra night games so we were down to $67 last week. That left just 2 - $33 bets for us, for the rest of the season. Talk about pressure. But, we hit a 4 teamer and put the bank back up to $397.

The 4 wins with no losses also bumped our Season Record up to 31-24 (56%). that is just a few points off the best Handicapping records in the World right now (60%). 
We are currently 3rd vs the Pros (And we don't charge for picks). 

 



 

NFL PICKS WEEK 11 2016

SORRY FAMILY EMERGENCY - BACK TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK

 4 team Parlay $33 Pays $330

Gut Picks:

@DAL -7 vs BAL 
NE - 12 @ SF
@SEA - 6.5 VS PHI
BUF +2.5 @CIN

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 MONDAY NIGHT 2016

CIN-1 @NYG (47)
Projected CIN 26-23 (49)
Like CIN/Over

Bengals
Win Rush and Pass Offense by 8+. They should be very successful on Offense. 
However, they are 1-3 on the Road vs NYG 3-1 @Home

Giants
Lose on Rush Offense, But Win Pass Offense Big +13. 
However, they are without Cruz tonight and a starting left guard. 

Side
With Cruz Out - I give the edge to CIN to cover 3. 

Total
Both Teams Win Pass Offense Big, I like the OVER


Fantasy
CIN
Start Dalton, Start RBs and WRs
NYG
Sit RBs, Start Manning and WRs

Head to Head

 

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 2016

HEAD TO HEAD PART 1

HEAD TO HEAD PART 2

 

NFL HEAD TO HEAD (OTHER WEEK 10 GAMES)

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 THURSDAY NIGHT

@BAL -7.5 vs CLE (44)
Projected BAL 27-16 (43) 

Ravens should Roll by 10. Should go Over?

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 (REAP)

Later this week

BUF +7 @SEA (43.5)  
Projected BUF 30-23 (53)

SEA
Have a Home Network Night Game
Hawks Lose on Offense. They win Turnovers by 1
DE Bennett and SS Chancellor are out. 

BUF
Traveling Cross Country, But had time to adjust since it's a Monday Night Game. 
Bills actually Win Rush (7) and Pass Offense (2). They win Big Rushing. Need to Run First to set up Pass. Let's hope they are smart enough to do that this time. 
Most Offensive Starters (including McCoy & Bush) were Limited in Practice Sat, so, Probable Tonight.
They are missing some Receivers so they brought Percy Harvin out of Retirement.  That should be fun to watch vs his old team. He could actually factor tonight.

Last time Bills needed to Run and they Passed. Result  3 & Outs and a loss. That will be the Key to tonights game, Along with the Bills Defense Forcing 3 & Outs off Wilson and a Poorly Coached SEA Offense. Bills Must Run First or Lose. Maybe, If McCoy really is ready to play they will. If not- they need to use the QB Option with whomever they have in the backfield. They had success with that, but ran it once and never made it a habit. They need to - with our without McCoy.  

HEAD TO HEAD

 Over  is "Not" Qualified - Does Not count Toward Season Record

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 MONDAY NIGHT

BUF +7 @SEA (43.5)  
Projected BUF 30-23 (53)

SEA
Have a Home Network Night Game
Hawks Lose on Offense. They win Turnovers by 1
DE Bennett and SS Chancellor are out. 

BUF
Traveling Cross Country, But had time to adjust since it's a Monday Night Game. 
Bills actually Win Rush (7) and Pass Offense (2). They win Big Rushing. Need to Run First to set up Pass. Let's hope they are smart enough to do that this time. 
Most Offensive Starters (including McCoy & Bush) were Limited in Practice Sat, so, Probable Tonight.
They are missing some Receivers so they brought Percy Harvin out of Retirement.  That should be fun to watch vs his old team. He could actually factor tonight.

Last time Bills needed to Run and they Passed. Result  3 & Outs and a loss. That will be the Key to tonights game, Along with the Bills Defense Forcing 3 & Outs off Wilson and a Poorly Coached SEA Offense. Bills Must Run First or Lose. Maybe, If McCoy really is ready to play they will. If not- they need to use the QB Option with whomever they have in the backfield. They had success with that, but ran it once and never made it a habit. They need to - with our without McCoy.  

HEAD TO HEAD

 Over  is "Not" Qualified - Does Not count Toward Season Record

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 2016 (Other Games)

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 2016

Bank Bet

SnapShot

Head to Head (Part 1)

Head to Head (Part 2)

Note: 
I posted a Rough Projected Score for ATL Thursday 27-20. The actual Head to Head Projected even closer 36-26 to Final Score 43-28. They Covered and it went Over. We Had ATL Covering Pregame - so counts toward record. Total was Under pregame, So Even  though Head to Head was Over and I bet the Over, that does Not count toward record.  

Parody = Lower Bar
Parody is so bad now days -  I Qualify a Team if they Cover Spread by 4.  Teams used to have to Win Rush Offense & Pass Offense by 4 or 5 Ranks, and Red Zone Offense (60%+) as well to Qualify. But, these days almost none do.  This is NOT a High Bar! But as you can see above - Only ATL Qualified for both Head to Head and Spread this week. Pretty Pathetic.