Monday, November 3, 2014

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 MONDAY NIGHT 2014


IND-3 @ NYG (51)
OFF THIS GAME

CASE FOR COLTS
THEY BEAT GIANTS 38-14 IN NOVEMBER
 TEAM RANK 4TH
QB RANK 7TH
THE IND OFF LINE AND RUSH OFF AVG RANK 15TH
NYG DL AND RD NEAR LAST
NYG DEF ALLOW 60% TDs IN RED ZONE
SHOULD HAVE BETTER FIELD POSITION
 ELI PRONE TO CHOKING - COLTS AVG 3 SAKS PER GAME
COLTS DEF LINE 8TH
CB VERNON DAVIS BACK FOR COLTS WAS OUT VS PIT 
REGGIE WAYNE ALSO OUT VS PIT IS BACK
COLTS WON MATCHUP BY (78)

CASE FOR GIANTS
GIANTS OPPONENT STRENGTH RATING 2ND HARDEST
COLTS OPPONENT STRENGTH RATING 12 OUT OF 15 
TEAM RANK 10TH
QB RANK 9TH
 AFTER LAST WEEK ? - ARE COLTS FOR REAL? 
COLTS GIVING UP 80% TDs in RED ZONE (BUT FACTOR PIT GAME)
COLTS HAVE INURIES AT DT AND OLB
GIANTS AT HOME IN COLD WEATHER VS DOME TEAM
GIANTS HEALTHY COMING OF OF BYE WEEK. 
COLTS 2-2 ROAD RECORD GIANTS 2-1 AT HOME 

 CASE FOR OVER
GIANTS PROJECTED 76% IN RED ZONE
REGGIE WAYNE BACK FOR COLTS

CASE FOR UNDER
COLTS RED ZONE DEF STATS 80% SKEWED BY PIT LOSS?
GIANTS PASS DEF 10TH
GIANTS FIELD POS OFF BAD
 COLTS FIELD POS DEF GOOD

BEST GUESS
IM 70-30 COLTS
WR WAYNE AND CB DAVIS WERE OUT VS PIT
ELI WILL BE UNDER PRESSURE COULD CHOKE
BUT GUT SAYS GIANTS HAVE PLAYED A HARD SCHEDULE
COULD SURPRISE EVERYONE
THE BAD FIELD POS STATS FOR GIANTS
AND GOOD PASS DEF OF GIANTS = UNDER?

OFF THIS GAME!
PROHIBITIVE PICK
PROJECTED 
IND 27 NYG 20
IND -3  / UNDER (51)

ALSO GONNA HEDGE
SMALLER BET
GIANTS / OVER

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