Saturday, January 17, 2015

NFL Picks Conference Championships 2014

_______POSTGAME________

NE 45-7 
1 - 0
100%
Season 66-43 60%

Patriots did what they were supposed to - RUN.
Seattle Did the Opposite.  
 
Obvious was the Right Call
I posted GB +7.5 on Friday.
What's that they say about your first answer being right?
Glad the system called off that one.
I really thought Bevell and Carol learned their lesson last year.
They havent. Wilson ran around the backfield again!
They did not stay Vertical. 

_______PREGAME________

IGNORE THE OBVIOUS in SEATTLE
IF BELICHICK ISN'T SENILE PATS COVER
The Obvious gut picks would be NE to Cover 6.5 and GB +7.5. But....

If Belichick doesn't Lose his Mind and abandon the Run - the Pats should cover Easy.
Its not just a Good Match up for Pats - Good Rush Off vs Weak Rush Def. 
Running the Ball Keeps the Colts Offense Off the Field - otherwise Colts can score and Pats barely cover like last week - 2 14 point deficits. 

Last week the Packers were at Home vs a Dallas Defense with the 20th Ranked defensive Line and 23 Ranked Rush Defense. That is not the case this week. Both Rodger's and Lacy are Limited. If the SeaHawks Jam Receivers at the Line - they get to an Immobile (Calf) Rodgers. The SEA Rush Def can stop Lacy (Knee) - Force 3 and Outs - Dominate time of possession and cover.  Seattle just needs to Stay Vertical - No Waiting for Plays to Develop, or Wilson Running around the Backfield. Run Lynch - Short Passes - PERIOD!

VIEW MATCHUPS 
(CLICK TO ENLARGE)

@SEA -7.5 vs GB
 SEA 
CAN RUN ON GB - BUT GB PASS DEF 3RD. GB RED ZONE DEF WEAK THO - SEA PROJ AT 83% IN RZ. OFFENSIVE DRIVE STATS GOOD FOR SEA.
EXPECT A BIG DAY FROM LYNCH
THIS SHOULD OPEN UP THE PASS GAME FOR WILSON
IF SEATTLE STAYS VERTICAL - WILSON NOT RUNNING AROUND BACKFIELD
SEATTLE COVERS 

 GB 
OL, RO, AND PO GOOD - BUT SEA BETTER IN EACH CAT. GB SHOULD HAVE GOOD FIELD POSITION - BUT OFFENSE PROJECTED AT JUST 40% IN RED ZONE

(DNQ) RICK PICK - SEA
PROJECTED - SEA 28-17  
 WE HAVE SEA BY 7  BUT IF SEA JAMS RECEIVERS - THEY GET TO RODGERS AND CAN STOP A LIMITED LACY = GB 3 AND OUTS = SEA BY 10

@NE -6.5 vs IND
 

 NE
CAN RUN ON COLTS IF BELICHICK DOESN’T OUTSMART HIMSELF
 AND PLAYS GRAY
IND WEAK RED ZONE DEF.  PATS +11 T/O IND -5 

IND
COLTS HORRIBLE RUSH OFF - BUT WIN OFF DRIVE STATS. GOOD PUNTER. BAD PLAY BY MANNING GAVE LUCK MULLIGANS - BRADY WONT.

SYSTEM / RICK PICK NE
PROJECTED - NE 31-20 
BOTH GOOD OFFENSES - BUT COLTS WEAK DEFENSE. IF PATS RUN - COLTS OFFENSE IS OFF THE FIELD AND EASY NE COVER.



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