It's Finally all coming together for us. Spent a lot of time on bet strategy early this year. I had to get back into the groove of reading the game data. By the time I get all the data done (It takes a lot less time than it used to) I still need to carefully review which picks we go with. Now that I am capping every game - we can be more selective. I did a better job of that this week - But - not nearly good enough (see Cutting Our Losses below). Next year we'll have a team doing all the data and I'll spend all my time just reviewing it.. I have all I need now though, and feel great moving forward.
Week 5 Bank Results
(Click to Enlarge then View Image to Magnify)
We had two losses this week that could have easily been avoided by following our normal protocol. BUF and ATL were not projected to cover (See "By" column above) - that's all I need to call Off a team - and will in the future. It's OK if a team does not fully qualify in the Match up - like New England this week. But cant be betting teams not projected to cover (See Spread Stat Success below). We called Off BAL and NYG due to Injury and CIN as they're on our don't bet list. That saved 3 loses. As you can see - it is a process of elimination.
The Parlay Cost Us Money this Week
We made and 18% Return this week. If All Picks were Straight Bets we make 27% GB Won - we made nothing on that game as part of a losing parlay. As we start hitting 4-2 and 5-1 weeks - there is no need to give away a win. Eliminating parlays doesn't stop anyone from putting 3 picks together. I have to remember the main goal here is to make money for you and the bank.
Parlay Whores
I'll probably post something separate and special for us special needs betters (Parlay Whores) LOL - a 3 team parlay moneyline or something to keep it fun. It wont count toward Bank or Record - But It will be something I believe in and bet myself too. I'll post it off the charts on the blog only - so it is not confusing - when I have time - right now just have to focus on the Bank bets.
Thursday Night
No reason to get silly on Thursdays. If the game qualifies as a System pick - we will bet it as one of the Single Bank Bets. Forcing one game it into a 2 team parlay is bad capping - calling both sides of any game is amateurish nonsense. As a single team bet the Thursday game will not rush or hurt the other picks and only becomes a pick if it qualifies - just like all the other games. I'll still be posting a full Head to Head Match up for that game - so everyone will have all they need for the Spread and Over Under Pick on Thursdays. As I write this, it all comes back to eliminating parlays. No rush if Thursday is not potentially part of our parlay for the week. Not betting parlays solves that too.
Betting Strategy
Progressive Bank is all about maximizing Funds and Profits. Parlays lower our odds of winning an potentially cost us money - like this week. At this point - It makes sense to just place single team bets for however many teams make it through the final cut. If it's 5 Teams great - If it's 1 that's fine too. "Winning" is what makes the Bank Work. In this case the Lombardi rule applies. "it isn't everything .....It's the only thing".
Injury Note
Checking every injury update on every game is time consuming. We do check them for every game. However, I will be checking for last minute updates on picks we choose. Last night Bryant was listed on the depth chart for PIT but did not play. I will double check the Key Injuries on the games we bet even closer from now on.
Spread Stat Success!
This week the System went 11-1 calling which teams should cover. Our pregame predictions were pretty good too. I may be getting the hang of this. LOL (See Chart below)
Laying Out all the games where I can see them like this should help me filter and finalize picks better. As you can see - ATL and BUF should have been filtered out and we'd be 3-0 this week. All the data in the world doesn't help - if you can't see the forest for the trees.
(Click to Enlarge then View Image to Magnify)
Enough patting myself on the back. 60% plus should be a weekly occurrence - it has been for years. I have work to do. On to week 6!
Thank you all for your support!
- Rick Jansen
6 comments:
Great job last week Rick. Topping it off with straight up winner on road dog Pitt.. I thinkyou will hit your 60% %goal this week. Your hard work is appreciated
I really appreciate your comments and participation. My stats show 1000 visitors from around the world each month - would love to hear from more of them. Last week was also a learning experience - the filtering process this week will be even better. Glad PIT covered - If you see me bet a Todd Haley offense again - comment and stop me LOL.
Todd Haley sounds like a jerk. He sued McDonald's in 2006 because he said his wife had a rat in her salad. Bullshit! He also fights with the players. I don't think Roethlisberger likes him. Big Ben would be a better offensive coordinator than Haley. Looking forward to your picks
Agree. Its crazy who gets to coach in NFL. Kubiak ruining Denver - they are so lucky to be undefeated - offense sucks now. Gruden still has a job in WAS. We'll see if we can guess who's smarter this week. Good Luck.
Denver will probably win again this week. They own Cleveland . 10-0 last 10 head to head. Peyton doesn't look sharp but their defense is winning games for them. Can't wait for your system results
Took the words right out of my mouth. DEN has skated by every week on defense. Manning is slow and old and Kubiak is a lousy coach - so is Phillips as a head coach - but hes done a great job with that defense. That's the hard part - knowing a team is overrated and due to lose (you see $ signs) - but then realize - it probably wont be this week or the next or the next. Predicted potential upset in Oakland but was patient enuf not to bet on it. Last year I probably would have lost 3 bets chasing a loss by them - its coming - the system will see it and let us know when.
Post a Comment