WEEK 13 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013

All Matchups Live!

http://www.happycapper.com/WK13NFLGAMES.html

Friday, November 29, 2013

Uploading All Games Sat Morning.

Just populating the last of the Matchups now.  I need to Review all the Picks Early Morning - before I put them up. I'd rather be a Day Late than a Dollar Short - for everyone's Benefit. 

I have spent a good deal of time on the Morning Games. Here is My Morning Ticket in the Meantime.

THANKSGIVING DAY NFL MATCHUPS WEEK 13 2013

THU at 9:00 Pm
Thursday Review: Brutal!  
Chance to Win $864 -  $60
12 Hours of Football - $0
Calling every Game perfectly on Thanksgiving - Except 1 - By 1 play - By 1 point - Priceless. 
_______________________________________



THU at 1:00 Pm
Update: I have a ticket on the Picks I posted (Below) Last Night.

$60 to Pay $864
DET -7
OAK +8.5
OAK Over (48)
BAL -3
The scary part is I have $800 riding on a Team on the Don't Bet list! Go Ravens!

 _____________________________



WED at 9:42 PM
Turkey Day is Up!
http://www.happycapper.com/WK13NFLGAMES.html
Rest of Games by Friday Morning
None of Today's Games Qualified and 2 Teams are on our Don't Bet List. 

But I know you Turkey's are gonna be looking for a passing lane between the heads of your relatives to see the TV.  You'll need some action to counteract the Tryptophan.   So here are some Game Notes. 
 
(Win) DET -6.5 Home vs GB
Matt Flynn had 1 TD, 1 INT and 1 Sack in his only game this year. I ran his career stats and came up with the same per game numbers. Interesting - he has played for 6 years and has 3 Game Starts.

Both teams win Pass Off and O Line. But, both Great Red Zone Def. GB bad Red Zone.
So the Over is Dicey
.
Unless Matt Flynn gets hot (Bad Stats) . GB won't keep up with Lions Offense and they cover 7. But DET Weak Sched, Bad FG % and on Don’t Bet list. GB wont punt out of Trouble avg 41, 36% Red Zone Off. 

Halftime Update:  17-10.  Lion's moving the ball at will.  Should be 31-3. Miscues DET.  That's why they are on the Don't bet list. Flynn Sacked... IDK... lost count. Post Game:  Pretty much as predicted Above. Easy Win Lions.

(Win) DAL - 9.5 @ Home vs OAK + 9.5 / (Win) Over 

Book (47) Proj:31- 24 (55)
Both teams Massive injuries on Defense. Thus the Over. OAK 9th Def line 9th, but  Bryant and Austin should score vs OAK 24th Pass Def. 

McGloin will be without 2 top receivers  - but completes passes to 7 different targets last week and Jennings will Run on DAL 29th Rush Def. They have a great Punter to keep cowboys on their side of the 50.  Janikowski is only 68% this year, but the greatest ever, should hit a few in the Dome. 

Halftime Update:  21 - 14  Raiders 9th Def Line playing almost too well for my Over. Shutting down DAL Run Game. McGloin playing well as expected. Romo found the Weak OAK Def - end of Half. Nice Lead Oak - DAL Pass Off should come back in 2nd Half to Cover Over. OAK Run Game and McGloin should keep in within 7. 4th Qtr: McGloin not taking what they give him. Skipping reads and throwing it up for grabs. Rookie move.OAK abandoned Run Game - making it harder to pass.  Post Game: Janikowski Baby! Thanks Sebastian!  Down by 10 - As I predicted  -Janikowsk came though and saved my ass to cover OAK +8.5.

(Lost by 1) BAL - 3 @ Home vs PIT
Book (40.5) Proj: 26 - 12 (38)
PIT Weak Sched. BAL #3 Def Line and 5th Rush Def vs 26th PIT O Line and 28th Rush Off.  Long Day for Ben.  PIT 2 starters Out on Def. Good Under? May be factored at 40.5 

Post Game: Ravens had a chance to put it away 5 times and settled for 5 field goals. One of the most bizarre finishes ever! Came down to 1 play.- 4th and Goal PIT from 1 yard line. Corners get crossed up - easy TD. BAL 22 - 20. BAL (-3) Lost by 1.

WEEK 12 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013

Dog Were Barking - Weather Biting!

Dogs 69% Week 12. 

Weather for 6 Games in the 30s.

New Look
As you may have noticed - I gave the site a makeover.  In the process I didn't have time to fully update the Quick View - Renamed "This weeks Picks". It is Updated now. 

You Can Now View:

-Picks (Bet)
-MUP ( Matchup Total FAV )
-OL ( Oline vs Dline FAV )
-(Rk) Rank
-Games
-Projeted Score
-Spread (Spr)
-The Favorites Projected Win by total.
-FAV Cover Spread By (SpBY) total
-Our Projected Game Total
-The Difference between the Book Total and out Projected Game Total (Dif)
-The Over / Under Rating for each Game.
-Statistical Matchup Data fro every Game.>>> (Click to View) Matchup Details.
-Weather
-Key Injuries

All on one page. If you are on your phone. Just find a game and scroll across for all the details. Then just click on the Arrow next to the Notes and View the Full Matchup with complete injury reports and Head to Head Stats. 

All 32 Teams. 
Another Page you may not be familiar with is "All 32 Teams". This lists all the Teams in Alphabetical order. 

Click on a Team name and it takes you right to the live Depth Chart with Mouse over Injury updates. 

Each Team strip shows every game and score played by each team. If you click on the score - it takes you to the box score and stats for that game.  

The page also lists Teams by Rank. If you click on one of those teams - it takes you to the NFL.com Depth Chart and which has better in-dept career stats for each player.

Just Added: Each Teams Coach and Career Record

Week 12 Results
We got hammered a little picking winners. The good news is - We Nailed Over / Unders. That, along with Wins on TEN and SF saved us.

Over Under Stats
We used the Weather to help Call the Unders. That was not reflected in "This Weeks Picks" this week. But you can see it on the Results page. In The Over Under Stats of the Matchups - we switched Combined 1st Downs to Weather. The combined 1st downs were all Under and made that a worthless stat anyway. So this week you will see Weather in that section from now on. 

The Over Under Rating lets you pick the Over Under. 3+ Over or -3 Under to Qualify. 

Notice on the Results Link Below: The Over Under Stats are on the Right. 

These Stats Include - Combined Projected Performance Matchups for: (DIF) Difference between Projected Total and Book Total / (PO) Pass Off / (OL) Off LIne / (RZO) Red Zone Off and (Wea) Weather. This Rating is listed on "This Weeks Picks" in the Ov / Un Column.

Season Total 44 - 23 66%
Week 12 Results 5 - 3 63%
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk122013.html

2 Team NFL Parlays

Betting Late 2 Team Parlays. 

Like Grand Master Flash used to say "Don't Do It!
This week I called the winners on Pats and Niner's and lost money. 
It's hard enough to pick a winner. Trying to pick the Winner and the Total on the same game - is asking a lot of yourself. Great for the Ego if you win. Bad for the wallet if you attempt it regularly.

If you are like me - you are not betting  $1000 to win $1100. I need to at least make 2.5 to 1 and usually bet $50 3 team parlays @ 6-1. The pros don't bet parlays - but I'm not a pro. I only bet what I can truly afford to burn.

I live very close to a sports book, so, like may of you - who bet online - I often add a ticket after a loss - on the Sunday Night and or Monday Night games. To get a 2.5 return - we are forced to add an Over or Under to the ticket.  That's fine if you already factored a great Over or Under ahead of time, when you made your picks. If not, you are just guessing and cutting your chances of winning in half. With the the afternoon games starting at 1:25 - that is another opprtunity to do the same and lose. 

Better Solution.

If you Bet Late after a loss - here's a Better solution. 

Separate your Picks:

Thursday Night. Skip it or 2 team Parlay. (3 games this Thursday)

Sunday Morning Games - Separate 3 Team Parlay.

Sunday Afternoon Games- Separate 3 Team Parlay.

Sunday Night / Monday Night - Separate 2 to 4 team parlay.

You can do this with $20 bets or whatever you can afford. If you think about it - it gives you more chances to win. Would you rather have 1 lotto ticket or 4?  It's been such a crap shoot this year - why not increase your odds of cashing a winning ticket?

Betting Strategy is as important as Trying to Pick Winners. 

MONDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 12 2013

POST GAME

Man am I stupid!  I Knew SF was an easy cover. But I had 1 loss on a late 4 team parlay. So I needed a 2 team parlay for last night.  I was looking at the Over / Under to make it two teams. A close betting associate told me I was way too low on my original total. The book agreed. I was 13 under the Book Total (47).

The system had projected the total at 24 - 10  (34). (See Week 12 Matchups - below) 
So, I added and subtracted to get closer to the Book Total  -which I respect.
Came up with 48 and took the Over.

Final Score 27 - 6 (33). 
_________________________________



SF - 5.5 @ WAS. Projected Score ( 31 - 17)

Niners: (31)
Was 25th Pass Def / 28th Rush Def vs SF Offense. SF also wins Field Pos Stats Big.  Subtracted -3 for Long Road Trip and SF still covers by (8.5). RG3 and Skins in turmoil. Too much Offense for the Skins Defense to handle. Cold 33 - but #1 Rush Offense easy Yards for Niners vs 28th Rush Def - giving less than a TD. 

Redskins: (17)
Was good Off Line (4th) and Rush Off vs 25th Def Line. But lousy Punter and FG%.

I updated the Matchup after giving it some extra time.

The Over under is a Tough Call. Cold and Mostly a Rush Dominated Matchup. 
31-17 best guess = 48 - Book Total 47.

http://www.happycapper.com/W12SF-WAS.html
The smart money is on (SF) and leave the Over Under alone.

NFL Spread Trends Week 12 2013

(Updated) Weeks 9-12

Dog Day Afternoon!

Wow! Dogs Won 69% of the Time Week 12.

Click to Enlarge

Best Dog Spread 10 +

Best Fav Spread -3.5 thru -6.5 
 You have to figure Parody has a lot to do with it. 
" Don't Throw your pearls to the Pigs"
"Better to Receive than to Give in this case." 
At this point I see only a 4 teams worth over 7. 
Unless they play each other 
DEN / SEA / SF / NE
 

WEEK 12 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013

Improved Quick View and Matchups

 http://www.happycapper.com/WK12NFLGAMES.html

Sorry I'm late. The new Quick View took some time. It now has Key Injuries included, as well as Weather and in dept Game notes. So now, with one quick view - you have all you need to make your picks.

The Matchups should be much easier to read now too.  Whole New Look!
Find a Game on your Phone and just scroll accross to view all the Details of that Matchup.

Weather will play a factor this week. 6 Games are in or under 30 Degrees. 
Damn shame too. Shout out to all those recovering from the storms. Wish you a warm Weekend.  
Only 1 game Total under 40 and that is the BAL game below. It just dropped to from 40 to 38.5. That was my Under of the Week - maybe still - but may be factored now. I have the total at 29. 40 MPH winds and Snow, 35 degrees.

I hope we can warm your pockets this week.

No more separating Rick Picks and Leaning.  Just the cream of the crop. I hope!

Top Picks

1. CAR -4 Over MIA @ MIA  Projected Score (24 -3)
CAR 6th D LIne should Shut out MIA 32nd O line and Tear up 27th Pass Def. 

2. HOU -10 @ Home vs JAC  Projected Score (34 -6)
JAC 32nd Pass Off has 3 WR injured vs 13th Pass Def HOU. Keenum @ Home vs 32nd Pass and Rush Def of JAC.

3. UNDER (41.5) - KC /SD  Projected Score (35)
KC cant score in Red Zone vs Decent SD Def. SD WR Royal (7TDs) DBT SD vs #4 Pass Def of KC. Rivers hates Travel and Cold Weather. (27 Degrees) Receivers will be dropping balls. 

4. SF - 5.5 @ WAS. Projected Score (24 -10)
Was 25th Pass Def / 28th Rush Def vs SF Offense. SF also wins Field Pos Stats Big. 
Subtracted -6 for Long Road Trip and SF still covers by (8). RG3 and Skins in turmoil. Too much Offense for the Skins Defense to handle. Cold 33 - but Run game easy for Niners vs 28th Rush Def - giving less than a TD.

Good Luck!

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WEEK 12 RECAP 2013

Rob Ryan's Defense Keeps Brees Off the Field

Falcons Avg Time Of Possession 24:57 (Ranked 27th). Tonight 33:46
Saint Ranked #1 in AVG Time Of Possession 34:34. Tonight 26:14.

Playing Prevent Defense at the end of a game - is usually a stupid move. Playing Prevent Defense the Entire Game - almost cost New Orleans the win. Rob Ryan allowed Matt Ryan all the 10 yard pass completions he wanted. He accepted, and drove the ball down the field with short pass completions, drive after drive. Sacking the QB is nice, But if he throws for a first down the next play - kind of ineffective.

The All You can Eat - First Down Buffet - kept Drew Brees Off the field most of the game. When he did play - he was on point and accurate. The Saints receivers on the other hand - dropped balls like clumsy waiters. 

Matt Ryan 30 of 39.  Long 17 yds. O TDs.
Drew Brees 23 of 33. Long 44.  2 TDs. Ten More Passes?
Yeah...they cover easy.

The Falcons have one of the weakest pass defenses in the league. The prevent defense took that advantage away from the Saints. Rob Ryan's defensive ineptitude forced the The Saints defense to endure a marathon instead of a sprint. Dumb move, one game before a trip to Seattle with playoff implications. 

This article is not about losing 50 bucks tonight. It's about what could keep one of the greatest Quarterback to ever play - from a winning 2nd Superbowl. 
Video - Bullsyes - 10 for 10!  Most Accurate QB on the Planet!
The Saints have the Seahawks next,  then the Panthers Twice. Give those teams an inch for 4 quarters - like Rob Ryan did tonight, and they will take a mile.

Brees deserved a big night, after what happened last year (see below). Too bad he was robbed of that opportunity. No pun intended. You could see it in his face on the last drive. He wanted to win decisively.  If not for a penalty  - they score and cover. Glad to see he has regained his place as one of the top Quarterbacks in the league though. Too bad he was denied a suitable coronation. A 4 point win had to leave him kind of empty.  It did me.

Sorry for steering everyone wrong on this one. Once again - you can't handicap stupid.

- From Blog - Nov 30th 2012 -

Week 13 Falcons vs Saints.

What Could have Been. 

As the egg yoke and whites dripped down the windows of the Saints team bus the day before, it must have stirred vengeance in the hearts of the New Orleans players. Local fans in Atlanta had in essence – stoned their unwelcome rivals.  They had started the season 0-4,  without a coach and somehow still had a chance to make the playoffs with a win last night. Who would have egg on their face when this one was over – they must have thought.

Even the oddsmakers knew going in.  The outcome of this game could not be predicted with mere statistics. They set the line low at -3.5 for a 10-1 home team hosting a 5-6 division rival - with what Deon Sanders described in the pre-game as “The worst defense in NFL history.” That seemed overstated. 

Like a rematch between Sea Biscuit and Man-O-War, there were intangibles here that could not be measured; Heart and Pride. The heart, mainly that of Drew Brees. A quarterback more accurate than an archer, with the game presence of a president and the heart of a teenager. He had lost the game for his team the week before with a forced pass that was intercepted. We all knew that would not happen again. The pride, an Atlanta team at home - that in their own words, should have won the last match up easily. 

As the opening shot was fired, Matt Ryan threw a short pass to the right that could have and should have been taken to the house by Saints CB Jenkins for 6 Saints points – if tight end Gonzales had not wrestled the ball back for an eight yard gain. 

The Saints rush defense then allowed Michael Turner to run on them at will. Before you knew it, the Falcons were up 14 nothing and Deon Sanders looked more like Nostradamus than MC Hammer. Anyone hoping for a close fought cliffhanger - was surfing the channel guide for alternative programming. Then the saints found a spark and drove down for a running touchdown. 

At 17 – 7 there was hope. 

Near the end of the first half - the Saints caught fire again and drove inside the Atlanta 10 yard line. Touchdown Saints! The pass was called back by a penalty. With 35 seconds left, Brees ran two plays down to the 2 yard line. As he rallied the team to line with 7 seconds left – you watched the clock tick down to zero. 

Falcon 17 Saints 7.

Not 17-14

Not 17-10

17-7 

Only God and coaches know what really happens in a locker room at halftime. As the second half began, something was different. We watched the Saints come onto the field and there was an energy. Highlights of Brees rallying his troupes before the game resonated like an acid flashback. “This is our division, we know and they know it.” He had us too, climbing on an irresistible emotional bandwagon.

As the second half began - suddenly, the worst defense in NFL history was shutting down the 10-1 Falcons offense. Three and out. Three and out. The New Orleans offense was on fire again as well. Then it happened.  Brees about to score - forces a throw and is picked off. The Saints defense holds and there is still hope. He’s only human. Then it happens again. Brees throws a pick, Saints defense holds. Time and time again - they drove the ball down the field only to have their field general hand the ball back to the enemy. The number one scoring offense in the NFL - couldn’t score.

With about 4 minutes left in the game, down by 10, the Saints have one last chance. They mount a drive that reminded us all of all those great last minute comebacks. Then, to our dismay, it happens again. Brees, under pressure, lobs a ball over the heads of the oncoming pass rushers and completes a pass to an Atlanta defensive linemen. Falcons ball on the Saints 30. Game over. 

But like any great Odyssey - it wasn’t. With just a couple minutes left in the game - the saints defense holds up the Falcons running back and strips the ball. Saints run it in for a touchdown. We can’t believe it happened, but it did, and the Cinderella story isn’t over. The touchdown is called back, but the Saints have the ball and one more, one more last chance. And then, it happened again. His childlike enthusiasm that we love so much, had caused him to force passes - instead of taking what the defense gave him and winning a game they should have won. 

Final Score - Falcons 23. Saints 13. 

The Falcons claimed the Saints didn’t beat them in the last game – they beat themselves. Now the Saints can claim the same. 

Something ended last night. It was not the career of Drew Brees. And it was not the end of his record for consecutive TD passes that left us empty. It was the chance to witness something amazing that we lost. To quote Sea Biscuit; "Sometimes the little guy just needs a second chance"  They got one, and it would have been fun to see the the underdog beat the odds. If there is a lesson to be learned in all of this – it falls somewhere between the power of the human spirit and the value of self control. 

Sometimes we can want something so bad, we lose our patience in pursuit of it. Drew Brees, like Moses,  will not see the promised land this year. But, at the end of the day, all we can do if is be grateful for the ride.

-Rick Jansen:

WEEK 11 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013

Cant Handicap Stupid!

Or Can We?

DET vs PIT. The stats on DET blew PIT out of the water.  But, once again Schwartz lost one for the Lions. The were in control of the game.  Short FG - to go up by 7. Fake FG, Fumble - no score. The momentum shifted from there. What should have been an easy win for DET - turned into a 10 point loss.

HOU vs OAK. Pryor is the leading Passer and Rusher for OAK. He didn't even play and HOU was at Home. Easy money right?  A lucky swat and the ball comes out of Keenums hands for a fluke fumble recovery and TD on the first series. Raiders Bup QB played well and Jennings has become equal to or better than McFadden. Raiders score again. 14-0 OAK.

Keenum mounts a brilliant HOU comeback to tie the game. 3 Quarter - OAK 21 - HOU 17.  Here's where the Stupid come into play. As we all await another Keenum comeback - to our amazement - Matt Schaub is behind center. Either Phillips (a perennial idiot) made that call - or Kubiak's Stroke affected his brain. Schaub proceeded to move the offense into position to score several times - only to produce nothing but FGs in the Red Zone.  Big Surprise. Meanwhile the most talented young QB in the league watches on the sidelines as Texans suffer a needless loss.

The addition of Keenum has made the Texans one of my favorite underdogs. They made me money covering vs KC. Since the rookie got the start - they have had to play KC at Home and then the Colts. The first week they get a break - the coaching staff blows it. "Hey Teacher, Leave those Kids Alone!

Handicapping Stupid.

Just add DET and HOU to our Don't Bet List. 

CIN
BAL
DET
HOU
IND
DAL

When the Matchup is right - could be good Moneyline opportunities. Betting against them.

Season Total 
39-20 66%
Week 11 2-2 50%
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk112013.html

Two Out of Three Aint Bad.

That's our winning percentage this year so far. Although we usually stay above 75% each week  - been hard to call the last few weeks (See Stupid Above).

Remember - this site was built to produce the most comprehensive Head to Head data available. We win that contest every week - as no one else even offers Head to Head statistical matchups.  

That Data has continued to produce Winning Tickets, 4 out of the Last 5 Weeks!
$1750 on $200 worth of Bets. That's an 850% Return. Don't just look at the System Picks. Look at the Matchups and use our data  - so You can make the Right call. Just remember - Never bet anything you cant' afford to burn. No such thing as a sure thing. Last week proved that.

All New This Week!

After several Failed attempts - I think you will find this weeks Quick View and Matchups much easier to Read. Let me know what you think. They will be up by Tomorrow. Thursday Live Below.

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 12 2013

Run Don't Walk to Sportsbook!

I used last weeks stats to run the Matchup Early.  Falcons hammered by TB and Saints played well vs Niners. So shouldn't change much when I do the updated version.

Saints -8 vs Falcons and the Over (53). 

Gonzales Ques for ATL

Sproles Ques NO - but Bup RB Thomas hasd more TDs.

The most important Stat is Off Line vs Def Line. Saints (2nd) OL wins that by 14 ranks vs ATL (26th) DL and Crush ATL by 25 in the Pass Off Matchup. NO Ranked  2nd PO vs 27th PD ATL.  Saints won Matchup by a woping (136). ATL good Off Line and Pass Off too - But Lousy DEF. 1 Great Offense and Defense vs Decent Offense and with Horrible Defense. Love Saints by 10!
Like the line before it goes to 10!  Especially if Gonzales is out.


Saints 36 - Falcons 13.
View Matchup:
http://www.happycapper.com/W12NO-ATL.html
(Note) I put money on the Saints and the Over. Had the Total at (60). As I finished the new Matchup - the New Total came out at (49). Hope the System Total is wrong. Sorry for late notice. 

Monday NIght NFL Week 11 Winner!

Monday Night Thriller!

What a game! The Panthers drove down and won it when they had to. I was sweating it - didn't know if they would. Then great last minute effort by Brady - more sweat. I'm sure it was a bad call - but happened so fast - thought defender was reacting to INT. Easy to call on TV - little harder in a split second. If I had the Pat's - probably have a different take on it. LOL. 

WEEK 11 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013

THIS WEEK LOOKS LIKE MONEY!

I have not felt really good about the Matchups for a few weeks. I really like this weeks games and agree with all the System Picks. Top 4 in Green.

SYSTEM PICKS 

DET -2.5 @ PIT (Ajusted Rank +29 DET. #1 OLINE VS 29TH DLINE PIT. 7TH RO VS 31ST RD & #3 PO VS 16TH PD.  Big Day Bush and Johnson.  DET Projected 60% RZO vs PIT.)


HOU -7 (HM) VS OAK (OAK-Pryor Leading Passer and Rusher - OUT!)

ARI - 6.5 @ JAC  (ARI SOS good - adjusted rank +11 so Qualifies for -7 or more. Playing JAC - won MUP (62). Projected Score 30-19. Like ARI by 14.)

SEA -13 (HM) VS MIN (#2 SEA PASS DEF CONTAINS 25TH PO OF MIN. 9th Rush Def contains Peterson. 32ND PASS DEF AND 24TH RUSH DEF SHOULD ALLOW BIG DAY FOR WILSON AND LYNCH @HOME. T/O +11 SEA )

GB +5.5 @ NYG (INJURY OFF)

RICK PICKS

CAR-2.5 @ NE

UNDER (41) BUF / JETS

OVER (52.5) PHI / WAS 

LEANING 
IND -3 @ TEN
ATL - 1.5 @ TB
UNDER (46.5) CHI /BAL
CLE +6 @ CIN & UNDER (42) CIN / CLE
SF + 3 @ NO
KC +8 @ DEN & UNDER DEN / KC
(Like KC - but don't love them. Manning may be Sore and KC best Pass Rush in League. But -DEN Adjusted Rank + 17 over KC. Alex Smith still hasn't Scored TD in Red Zone in 6 weeks. That will have to change Fast vs Tough DEN Def for KC to keep up with Manning. DEN did only win one Category (Field Pos) by 10 or More -so like the +8 a little? 
UNDER (46) CAR / NE 

VIEW MATCHUPS! 
http://www.happycapper.com/WK11NFLGAMES.html

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 11 2013

POST GAME:
Colts lucky to come away with win. Not impressed. Luck - bad footwork 1st half. Titans  pressured QB and ran on them at will - even in 4th Quarter.  Strength of Schedule proved a valuable stat - Adjusted Ranks - TEN 21 / IND 22. Titans played inspired ball. Without the Fumble - Titans win. Fitzgerald excellent Back up. Donald Brown should start over Richardson. Colts can not start late and win in Playoffs. Proceed with Caution regarding them. IND On my (OFF) list with CIN and BAL. 
_________________________________

IND -3 @ TEN  (42.5)
View Matchup:
http://www.happycapper.com/ThuW10.html

The Smart money will stay OFF this one. Except maybe the UNDER.
System OFF / Rick OFF / Leaning - IND BY 3 / UNDER 

COLTS

PRO
IND Wins Rush Off and Red Zone Off.  Colts Motivated after loss to STL & Locker is Out -TEN.
The Run Game vs 28th Rush Def of TEN should open up the Pass for Luck - Great Red Zone Off and TEN Week Red Zone Def. T.Y. Hilton scored 3 TDs vs HOU - and STL beat them with Long Bombs, Punts and Fumble Returns - Fluke?  

CON
IND Does not Dominate the Matchup - Winning only one Category (Rush Off) by 10 or more.  
Without Reggie Wayne - Defenses could Key on HIlton - which a Smart coach like Fischer and the (5th) Ranked TEN Def would do. IND Adjusted Rank is actually -1 to TEN.

TITANS

PRO 

TEN will be Motivated to Regain Respect after loss to Win-less JAC Especially Playing @ Home this week (+3). Fitzgerald has played well as a Backup and will be comfortable with the Offense.  The (5th) Ranked Pass Def should slow down Luck without Reggie Wayne. TEN Adjusted Rank is 1 Better than IND. +4 T/O Ratio. IND +3.

CON
TEN Adjusted Rank is the Same as JAC. Lousy Punter (avg 44) wont get them out of Trouble. Twice the Penalty Yds per game of IND. Weak Rush Def could allow Colts to sustain long - Time Consuming Drives and Red Zone Def allows 65% TDs in Red Zone.. 

OVER / UNDER 
Everything above paints a game Dominated by the IND Run Game and a Solid TEN Pass Def keeping Luck form running it up. UNDER!

PROHIBITIVE PICK:

IND BY 3 / UNDER 

EARLY LINE PICKS - WEEK 11 NFL 2013

Indianapolis

-3

At Tennessee

IND will look to prove themselves after loss to STL . Look for them to run it up vs TEN. Locker out for season TEN
IND by 10

Detroit

-2.5

At Pittsburgh

PIT only won vs BUF because BILLs had no Offense. Different story vs DET and Lions have good Defense too.  Ben will only be on field long enough to get sacked and have the punter help him up.
DET by 7

Arizona

-6.5

At Jacksonville

JAC had a good game vs TEN - but don't expect that to continue - Not vs the AZ defense.
AZ by 7


EARLY  INJURIES
(TEN) LOCKER -OUT 
(DEN) MANNING - MRI LOWER BODY - KC + 8 @ Den?
(OAK) PRYOR -SPRAINED MCL  HOU -6.5 @ Hou ? 
(GB) SENACA WALLACE - GROIN
(CHI) CUTLER ANKLE - MCCOWN BETTER ANYWAY
(BUF) STEVIE JOHNSON WR - GROIN

WEEK 10 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013

$600 4 Team WINNER!

READ THE MATCHUPS!
If you are just looking at the posted System or Rick Picks - You are losing out on the value of the System. It's all about Information. After BUF killed my Early line pick - SEA / BUF w/ HOU - I studied the Matchups of the remaining games. BINGO!

Look at the DEN / SD Matchup - SD did not look like it would excel vs DEN. Lotta Pink on SD side. DEN #8 Rush Def vs 22nd Rush Off SD - cant run - cant pass - for Rivers. Because of that I took the UNDER and DEN - in spite of OVER system pick - which really didn't Qualify - as the DIF should be at least 4 - it was 6 to Qualify last week. 6 is tto much - 3 too little - It was 3.6 for that game.  4 or more from now on.
http://www.happycapper.com/W10DEN-SD.html

Look at the CAR / SF Matchup. NO Green for SF and 3 Gold for CAR. Even with a weak Strength of Sched - it told us CAR +6. Even he projected score was 20- 20. No Cover SF.
http://www.happycapper.com/W10SF-CAR.html

The HOU vs ARI game Matchup was pretty much a TIE. or HOU by 3. And we all Know Keenum doesn't lose games and has HOU fired up.. So - when the line closed at HOU +3.5 - Take the Points! I'll admit there were a lot of reasons to stay off that game. Foster out, Phillips in at coach - almost coached them out of a win. Throwing when they only needed 5 yards. I was lucky - fumble at end saved my ass. But - I have praised Watt all year - he covered for me and without a Fluke fumble TD to start the game by Az - HOU wins by 4.
http://www.happycapper.com/W10ARI-HOU.html

MY BAD!
My Goal is to post Picks that make you money. So, I failed at that this week - Sorry.  After I spend 12 hours a week gathering data and loading the site - I really do not have much time left to read and use my own site. Which is why everyone else should. This was the first week I really studied my own site before leaving for the book to bet the late games. This system was built to be the Best Source of Data for beating the Spread. It did that for me this week. I hope everyone will remember to Read the Matchups!  Information is Power!

RESULTS WEEK 10:
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk102013.html

SYSTEM SEASON TOTAL  37 - 18  67%  
SYSTEM WEEK (10)  0 - 2  0%
Note: the if you look at the TEN Matchup - it does show that TEN and JAC were tied as far as Adjusted Rank. So, 12.5 was way too much to give. I will incorporate that safeguard int the system. http://www.happycapper.com/W10TEN-JAC.html  As far as BUF - if they played next week I'd still bet BUF - no excuses - Manuel just rusty - system cant account for that. Lack of Offense gave the game to PIT.

RICK SEASON TOTAL  15 - 9  62% 
RICK WEEK (10)  6-2  75% (includes late ticket above)

Leaning ///  \\\ (New Feature Added this Week) 5-0 100%
These are not System or Rick Picks - just which way I am leaning on the games based on the data. 

PreGame Picks: 
http://www.happycapper.com/WK10NFLGAMES.html Please comment and let me know if anyone has Questions on how to read the Matchups. I posted an article (below) to help.

HOW TO READ MATCHUPS

OVER / UNDER (Red Box Photo)
(DIF) is the difference between the (BT) Book Total and our (PRO) Projected Total.
It used to be (6) to qualify  - but now (3). Use this to figure out if the Over or Under is already factored in the Book Total. 

If the Following are BLUE = OVER
If the Following are RED = UNDER
(PO) Combine Rank advantage of each Pass Off vs the other Pass Def.
(OL) Combine Rank advantage of each Off LIne vs the other Def Line.
(1st) Projected total 1st Downs.
(PNts PG) Punts per game - Less than avg = Blue / More than avg = RED 

READING THE MATCHUPS

MATCHUP (Orange on Photo)
If a team wins a Matchup Category by 10 Ranks or more - that Category is Green if Fav or Gold if Dog. The team losing by 10 Ranks or more is PINK.
 
READING OFFENSE / SPECIAL STATS

OFFENSE
The Team expected to perform Above the NFL average vs Opponent is BLUE.
The Team expected to perform Below the NFL average vs opponent is PINK.

SPECIAL STATS
Team Ranked Above the NFL average vs Opponent is BLUE.
Team Ranked Below the NFL average vs opponent is PINK.

Click (View) on any Game on Quick View
QUICK VIEW:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK10NFLGAMES.html

WEEK 10 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013

SYSTEM PICKS

TEN over JAC
BUF over PIT
OVER - DEN/SD

http://www.happycapper.com/WK10NFLGAMES.html

RICK PICKS  

BUF over PIT
SEA over ATL
IND over STL
*HOU over ARI

*CAUTION - Wade Phillips interim coach for HOU. Phillips knows as much about coaching an offense as I know about Feminine Protection. Still Like HOU - but he could coach them out of a win. Del Rio also interim for Fox in Denver. But, Manning needs an Offensive coach about as much as I need feminine protection.

PICK OF THE WEEK WEEK 10 NFL 2013

HOU +3 @ ARI
HOU MONEYLINE!
Hoping Johnson can fill Void - for RBs Foster and Tate
Caution: ARI 4th Ranked Rush Def. 
Hope he doesnt hurt anyone. LOL
 

THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 10 2013

Post Game
Shanahan's Shut Down Washington

If you thought unnecessary Washington Shutdowns were over - the second half disappointed you.  Mike Shanahan and his Son Kyle - Offensive Coordinator - coached a talented, inspired team out of an easy win. 

Minnesota was unable to stop the Morris run game. This opened up the Skins pass game and kept a porous Washington defense off the field - holding Peterson and the Vikings to 14 points. The Redskins walked into the locker room with a dominant 10 point lead at halftime. 

In the 2nd half - the Shanahans abandoned everything that worked in the first half and failed to adjust to a decision by Fraser to blitz regularly. I don't know? What works against a blitz? Run maybe? On a crucial 3rd and 3 RG3 takes a 5 step drop out of shotgun and is sacked - Really? The obvious quick release passes and screens were not used to counter the blitz until late in the 4th Quarter. By then, they had lost the lead and a few dropped passes sealed the loss. The last play was a low percentage timing pass to the corner of the end zone. Verses let's say and "Option". Isnt that the name of their offense?  That is just bad play calling. 

Like Wilson in Seattle - RG3 just needs to release quickly and not play Fran Tarkenton in the backfield. Unlike Wilson - Griffin is an excellent pocket passer. He doesn't need to run to win games. He will not last long - physically - running the crap Kyle is feeding him. There is no need for him to take the kind of punishment he endured tonight - running into traffic for 5 yard gains.

It all comes down to coaching and play calling. Washington is a talented team. The players have a lot of heart. A coaches job is to manage and direct that talent. When a fake punt is thrown to a receiver that doesn't know the ball is coming to him - there is a coaching problem. When the offense wastes 27 seconds getting to the huddle with less than a minute left to win the game - Ditto.  

Glad I warned everyone - Proceed with Caution. 

I would continue to do so regarding the Skins - as long as Mike ans his son are running things in Washington.  

WAS -2.5 @ MIN (49.5)
View Matchup
http://www.happycapper.com/W10WAS-MIN.html 

Viking 23 vs Cowboys 27 - Video
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013110302/2013/REG9/vikings@cowboys#menu=highlights&tab=recap
Chargers 24 vs Redskins 30 - Video 
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2013110305/2013/REG9/chargers@redskins#menu=highlights&tab=recap

I always want to give everyone a good 2 team parlay for Thursday Night. If you' re like me - you might throw $40 on a Pick and an Over or Under to make it a 2 team parlay. This game has that potential. BUT - There are some Trouble Stats that tell me this one could go either way.

WAS
Much Stronger Schedule and Total Rank. Better QB. 
Pass Off 13th vs 32nd Pass Def of MIN. 
#2 Rush Off vs22nd Rush Def. 

MIN
Good Field Position Offense
#4 Rush Off vs 27th Rush Def
Ponder vs 26th Pass Def.
@ Home. Network Night Game. -3 WAS (Bad FG Kicker anyway)

Over / Under
2 Good Off Lines vs avg to Bad Def Lines (Over) . 
Above Avg Combined Red Zone Scoring - 60% (Over).
Combined 1st Downs 41 (Over).
Projected 50 - Book 49.5 DIF = .06 (Off)

Trouble Stats
WAS Horrible PK - FG 62% 
WAS Horrible Punter Avg 40 yds.

Summary
WAS Good Red Zone Off, Strong Pass and Rush game could blow out Weak MIN Def. MIN would still score enough to keep it Over.. Ponder's Pass Offense only 29th - But WAS Pass Def is 26th and Peterson could put them in position to score several times vs weak WAS Rush Def. MIN punter will kick them out of trouble while WAS could be stuck with Bad Field Position most of the game. If this comes down to a FG - good chance WAS misses it.

Pick
The fact that the MIN Def has 4 Starters out - Leans me in the direction of WAS. 

WAS 33-17 

Over / Under 
The combined PF / PA on this - without any MUP data factored is 56. OVER.
Our Projected is (50) - we are usually low. Books are moving from 49.5 to 50 and 50.5

Proceed with Caution.