Saturday, October 1, 2016

NFL PICKS WEEK 4 [NEW GRID]

I've been aware for sometime now that our Head to Head System Grid looks like a box of crayons exploded. I use color to show strength and weakness - so they stand out. However, in an effort to prevent anyone from having a seizure, or going blind reading it - I toned it down considerably. 

It's a lot of data, but I've always tried to give as much info as possible, so you can make educated decisions. We've always been a mix of the only NFL Head to Head stat source, and a handicapper. I have added QB Completion % and condensed the chart in size as well.
It works about the same as the previous chart. 

There are 5 Categories:

Head to Head (H2H TOT)
This one shows you who Wins the Overall Match up Head to Head, (Qualified or Not) 
The Total  it Wins the Head to Head "by" is in Light Green.  Also, whichever team wins each category  RO, PO, etc, appears in White.

Head to Head Qualified (Q)
This shows if the Winning Team Qualifies as a System Pick (Head to Head) 
Favorites must win by 20 or more and project 60% or better int he red Zone.
Dogs just need to win the Head to head by 10 or more. 
If a Team Qualifies Head to Head - a Light Green Check Mark Appears.
 
Example: Pats win the match up by 30 and project to Cover by 14.5, But only project at 50% in the Red Zone, as a Favorite giving 5. So, New England does not qualify as a System Pick.

Cover the Spread [By] (Q)
As always a team must cover by 4 or more. Example: A Team -3 must project to Win by 7.
If a Team Covers the Spread by 4 - a Light Brown Check Mark appears. 
 
System Picks
To Qualify: 1. Win Match Up. 2. Qualify H2H. 3 Cover Spread by 4. 
Qualified System Pick Team Names stand out in White on Black.

Over and Unders
This takes the Book Total, compares it to Our Total [Us] and shows the difference, or 
[DIF] on the far right - it must be greater than  +10 Over (Blue) or -10 Under (Red).
That's just scoring though. If the two teams also show extreme Head to head data to suggest an Over or Under - [Ovr] or [Und] will appear beside that game. (None this week).  


The System qualified one more team, Titans, But not adding it this late in the game this week, as we already posted system on Thursday, 

Hope you like it. Comments and critics welcome.

-Rick Jansen

HEAD TO HEAD
(Left click, Right click - View Image, Magnify)


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