NFL PICKS WEEK 12 THURSDAY NIGHT

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FINAL POSTGAME THURSDAY
Learned more this year than in the last 5. As you can see (below) We Aint Playin! 
We are not here to get paid win or lose. We are here to make you money. Working Overtime on a Holiday. That may be a "Virtual" Bank - but that represents real money you re really betting - based on my picks - I take that real seriously. We will make a profit and go 60% or better this year. Bring on the Weekend!

 
____________________________

Well I can sit around whining or do my job and clean up this mess. Let's see if we can get our money back and never repeat this mistake again. No Parlays, Teaser or any other kind - I promise. 

BET ADDED!
CAR PK @DAL
$200

Go Panthers!

BANK RECEIPT

PostGame_______________

DET 38-7 3rd Quarter
You may have noticed I do not cap every game anymore. That's the only time my gut comes into play. We have stayed off a lot of trap games this year. If I do not like either team - I skip the game and move on to other games - spend more time evaluating final picks. This is why I hate Thursdays. Once I cap all the games - the Eagles would not have made the cut. System didn't know Lions trending and Eagles in decline. I Should have went with my initial decision to stay off this one.  Trying to give you guys some picks for the Holiday games. 

No more Thursday parlays - No more Parlays or Teaser Parlays - Period! I'm betting the Panthers roll and we make nothing because we teased them with the Eagles. We didn't even get a final on starting QB for PHI pregame. Sportsbooks must love Thursdays. 16 games, One good pick today - Panthers - Not Two.  Lions -10 Turnovers, we need like 4. "Whah huh Whah"  Sorry for whining guys. 1 Quarter left,  +9,  Need a miracle. Go Sanchez! Wow did that just come out of my mouth? Has it come to that? I think I'm channeling Fred Sanford. "I'm comin Ester!

Screw Sanchez! Put in Thad Lewis - whys didn't they start him? He's way better than Sanchez! 

PreGame________________

I Love the Panthers as Dogs. The System Calls CAR and PHI. I have No confidence in the Eagles but do not want to ignore that System Pick. So, after swearing off Parlays - Teasing Both games actually seems like the Prudent move. The clincher for me with PHI is the #1 Off Line and  #2 Rush Off of PHI and Murray getting plenty of carries with RB Ryan Mathews out - VS the 20th ranked Rush Def of DET.

GB vs CHI does not qualify as a pick for either team. Bears should cover 8.5 but if Packers are back they won't - 2 horrible losses and 1 win - the verdict is still out on GB and they do not qualify as a system pick or project to cover. GB could win 31-10 so teasing CHI to 15 does not make sense either - OFF that game.

FINAL PICKS THURSDAY

2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER
PHI + 8.5 @DET
CAR +7.5 @DAL

HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE, MAGNIFY)  

BANK RECEIPT

________________________

WE NORMALLY POST BY NOON THURSDAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT - THERE ARE 3 GAMES TOMORROW. I AM NOT GONNA RUSH AND POST HALF ASS PICKS. 

I WILL HAVE FULL STATS AND PICKS FOR ALL 3 GAMES BY 6AM (PST) TOMORROW MORNING. 

LOADING NOW UP IN 5 MINUTES!!
ALL DONE JUST PULING THE TRIGGER ON THE ACTUAL BETS TODAY - DON'T WANNA RUSH JUST A COUPLE MINUTES MORE


 X

NFL PICKS WEEK 11 RECAP

Here's a little Golf cranberry sauce to go with your football. These start early morning tomorrow.- get them in early afternoon today:

AUSTRALIAN OPEN
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (40-1) @William Hill
ALFRED DUNHILL
LUCAS BJERREGAARD (20-1) @Westgate
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/
  
3-1 75% WEEK 11
Only a Missed extra point kept us for 4-0. After going 4-0 in week 9, I was unable to cap the games in week 10 - result 1-2. That will never happen - once I hire people and start charging. We bounced right back this week.  We are trending in the right direction - with about 9 weeks left - including the playoffs - Our playoff record is near perfect.

SHOPPING LINES
I usually just post the line from William Hill for each game. When I was capping the Buffalo game I noticed BUF +7.5 at Stations casino - good thing - most lines were +7 - turned a push into a win. I will post the house each line is from next year too - as part of the service - so you get the best bang for your buck

STRATEGY WORKING
I mentioned last week I was looking for absolute domination or to take points. That worked again this week.
 
ERROR CORRECTED
We were 1 -1 in week 7. I entered us as 1-4 that week - that has been updated now.

OUR WIN / LOSS RECORD IS IN THE BLACK 
My buddy at the sports book reminded me the magic number is 52.8 that you have to achieve in order to make money. We are currently at 52.9. 

COMPARE OUR RECORD TO THE PROS
I am not celebrating - we can and will do so much better than this. However, if you look at the records of the best pros in the world this year - we are in the top 5 - a little more than half way through our worst year ever. Keep in mind - they all charge a lot more than $40 a month for unlimited picks- like we will. See for Yourself:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/

MONEY MANAGEMENT AND BANK
Kind of nice that we had a year to work out the bugs  "before" we start charging.  The bank is down a little - however, if we bet 20% of bank each week this year - single straight bets - as originally planned - the bank would also be in the black. That was nothing more than me trying to re-invent the wheel as far as money management. I'm over that now.

PARLAYS AND TEASERS
Parlays are the only reason the bank is down at all. Like I said, we worked out the bugs. Teasers can be great - but you must bet a minimum of 2 legs - so again, these are parlays. For the most part - we need to stick to the pro strategy of single straight bets from here on out. 
That doesn't prevent you from using our picks as teasers - which has payed off nicely so far for  Reid.

ON TO WEEK 12
Not looking to change anything this week. 3 games on Thursday - lotta work to do early - so look for my picks by about 5pm tonight. Travel safe.

 
BANK STATEMENT 

NFL PICKS WEEK 11 MONDAY NIGHT

POSTGAME

(Final) Pats 20 Bills 13 (winner) Bills +7.5
I'm happy to have the win. But - Bills should have won outright. Beat themselves all night. Defense dominated Pats. Brady was throwing F bombs on the sideline. But the offense really let the Bills D down. Run was working - keeping Brady off the field. 

Then they kept trying to go deep, wasting series after series. 4 or 5 16 yd routes would have won this for them. Every pass attempt was for 30 or 40 yards. Taylor was double pumping and staring down receivers so long they were out of reach by the time he pulled the trigger. As I have said over and over again, most incomplete passes are thrown behind the receiver.

Don't blame Tyrod - Blame Greg Roman. He did pretty much exactly what I said they can not afford to do (pregame below).

[ "They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them" ]

If you want to beat the Pats you have to "Beat Brady" and "Become Brady".  That means getting rid of the ball quickly. 

BTW I mentioned the Pistol Offense (pregame below). Greg Roman was credited with bringing that to SF. He did not invent it - just stole it from Reno Nevada college coach Chris Ault. He needs to steal another bright idea cause he doesn't have any. 

Even the Run plays tonight  were ill conceived. Backs were running sideways half the night. The bootleg was wide open out of a 2 back set. They ran it once out of an empty backfield for a huge loss. Taylor and company are immensely talented. Too bad the offensive coordinator is not.

I'm really tired of seeing 25 year old kids look bad because somebody with a headset is overpaid and under skilled.

The good news - if there is any - is that "if" Taylor is OK, and "if" Rex fixes the Offensive play calling - Bills could go 10-6 and we could see a rematch in the NFC championship.

Like I said pregame - the secret is simple

"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.  

Rex got it half right tonight. 
___________________________________

PREGAME

BUF +7.5 @NE
(Note: we locked in 7.5 at Stations Casino early - Line dropped to -7)
Projected NE 23 BUF 17
(I do think Bills have a chance to win outright tonight - more gut than brains though?) 

Hopefully I'm a Bills fan for a good reason. I think I am - Great talent on Offense and a defense that was pretty damn good. Lack of offense can drain a defense. Hopefully with the offensive starters back and clicking - Bills defense won't be so worn out.  If I were not a Bills fan I might have stayed off tonights game. NE dominates this Match up statistically.

I predicted that when Tyrod, McCoy, Williams and Watkins got healthy - they would go undefeated. They have so far 2-0. They do have as much talent as any team in the league. I just put $20 on them at 50-1 to win the Superbowl - why not - if they can get past the Pats - they are as good as the rest. This is the one game I did "not" expect them to win. 

One Advantage
The Bills have is that Brady is without his go to Receiver Edelman and a cutback speed tailback in Lewis. Blount is great - but leaves the run game somewhat one denominational with just a power back and without a 2nd set of fresh legs. The patriots rely on the short pass game and are not deep In talent at running back. White and Boldin avg less than 3 yds per carry. They do "not" have a 2nd Dion Lewis to fill in.

Only problem here is that the Bills are playing the only team that probably deserves to be undefeated. With the possible exception of the Panthers. Pats have it all on Offense and Defense. The Match up shows that too. Brady has made a living - winning with whomever walks in the revolving door of players in New England. They win every category except Red Zone Defense. Even that has a "BUT" to it - Bills projected at just 33% in the red zone. They have a big play offense -  but that wont be the secret to their success tonight if they pull off an upset.....

Cracking the Code
I discovered the secret to winning in the NFL a few years ago. Seahawks had it off and on, and Pats still do. We bet both to win Superbowls and they did. The secret is pretty simple really:

"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.

Defensive lines are too fast to allow time for plays to develop. Offensive lines can not hold off defensive lineman that long. Give Bill Walsh credit for designing the West Coast offense around that problem - long before I noticed it. What boggles my mind is why any offense would even attempt any other offensive strategy. Peyton would still be healthy and starting for the Broncos if they stuck to it. Kubiak is a Moron.

Remember When
The Niner's and Redskin's were unbeatable with the "Pistol" offense? Kaepernick will be selling cars soon and RG3 is holding a clipboard. Nothing lasts forever? 

Here's my point...

[ Rex will need to Jam Receivers Off the Line and pressure Brady to win tonight. The only way to stop the quick pass is to keep receivers from getting to their marks. ]

Giants sacked Tom 3 times and almost beat them. Rex will need to establish a Run Game with McCoy and Williams to keep Brady off the field. Period! Do not abandon the run - even if they get down by a TD or two. Tyrod Taylor will also need to take what they give him with a short pass game. They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them. It will be all about first downs and getting to Brady. Rex knows a lot more about football than I do - let's hope it shows tonight.

Go Bills!

HEAD TO HEAD 
(Left Click to Enlarge)

NFL PICKS WEEEK 11 WEEKEND

Post Game
Decent Start to the week 2-1.. Should be 3-0. A missed extra point by Rams or we would be. 
STL +2.5 Lost by 3, 16 -13. 16-14 covers.

Rams defense was superb and led 13-3 only to lose 16-13. Case Keenum had so much potential. Rookies only get a few starts these days.  Hie career was on the line and he knew it. He was obviously scared to death of failing and it showed. Troy Aikman was 0-15 before he found his grove. Keenum will never get that game time to develop. Too bad.

This Helps!

 







 
This a few Weeks ago

 









Golf Pays Baby!

GO BILLS!
 _______________________________

No sure things this week. Stayed off the really close games and dicey injury match ups - there were a lot of those this week. check our depth charts before you bet games we did not cover. 
Just click on the Team Name: 
http://happycapper.com/teams.html

I was looking for teams that dominate and to take points vs those who do not this week.
I do Like the players we have money on. The Panthers defense, Hasselbeck & Gore, Case Keenum and Tyrod Taylor.

@CAR -7 vs WAS

IND +5.5 @ATL

STL +2.5 @BAL

BUF +7.5 @NE

HEAD TO HEAD 
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK-VIEW IMAGE TO MAGNIFY)

BANK RECEIPT 

NFL PICK WEEK 11 THURSDAY

I am just now getting back on schedule. Rather than throwing up a pick for tonight - I will pass and be ready Big Time for the weekend. I'll have all picks and stats as usual on Saturday by 2pm.

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 RECAP 2015

I did have real emergencies at home this week and was unable to cap the games. Sorry.

All our picks and bets made sense though - the results did not. Packers choke at home vs the last place pass defense of a (winless) Lions team that hasn't beaten them at home since the 90s? 

Only big mistake was me betting $150 instead of $50 on 2nd bet. At least I didn't go nuts and drain the bank. Plenty of money and about 9 weeks of games left - including the playoffs.
Right not we're All Square at 50% 26-26. So - New Season.
4-0 last week - lets get back to winning!

BANK SUMMARY

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 2015

My Apologies, I had a family emergency. Here are this weeks picks. If I have more I will post them 2 hours prior to game time in the morning. In the meantime - These count as Bank Picks for the Record - unless I post an alert by 8am (PST) tomorrow.


FINAL PICKS

2 TEAM (6 point ) TEASER PARLAY
BANK BET $150 

@ GB -10.5 vs DET (Teased to GB -4.5)
Lions last in Rush Offense and Packers are 7th in Pass Defense. So, look for 3 and outs and a route by a Packers team in need of redemption at home. DET allows 31 per game GB 19 so I can handle the high spread.

NE -7 @NYG (Teased to NE -1)
The Giants Rush and Pass Defense is near last  Pats are top 5 in Rush and Pass Offense. The NYG pass offense has played soft defenses lately. That is not the case with New England. Pats are top 10 in Rush and Pass Defense. Screw the curse or streak of losses vs Giants - Pats by 10.

BANK RECEIPT

NFL PICKS WEEK 10 THURSDAY

Postgame_______________________ 
I do not regret making this bet.  If you saw the game - the Over was a great call. There were 5 or 6 drives that should have produced more points - we only needed 3 more. Jets Do Not Kick FGs twice on 4th down in the Red Zone. There were 30 points left on the field in that game. Missed 42 by 3 Points. Should have gone Over easy. 

I expected a healthy Bills offense to excel vs an injured Jets Defense -They did. Expected Jets to score in the 2nd half - they did. I did not expect Bills to stop running (when it was working) in the red zone or for the Jets to give away 2 FGs. It was a good proposition. Almost gained $130 for the bank. In the end - lost very little. Record is the same, only down $50

Final Bills 22 - 17 (39) 
1-1 

Pregame_______________________

OFFICIAL BANK BET
$50
2 Team Parlay  
BUF +2.5 VS @NYJ (41.5)
OVER 41.5

I do like the Over. 2 good defenses - but Jets Defense littered with injuries and PA PF does avg out. Risk 1 Loss in Return for 2 Wins and a Nice increase in the bank . Won't do this often but I'll try it tonight. 





x

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 RECAP 2015

4-0 
On to Week 10

WEEK 9 BANK SUMMARY

Made a few other good calls too ....

We called IND a Trap Game for DEN - it was.

Stayed off the Packers, Saints and Falcons- they all Lost. 

Projected MIN vs STL too close to call - it was. 

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 MONDAY NIGHT

@SD -4.5 vs CHI (49.5)

I'm off this one. SD should cover by about 6 - but the SD defense is pretty beat up - so not a lock. I'd stay away from the total - could easily go either way. 

HEAD TO HEAD 

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 WEEKEND 2015

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Postgame____________________________
4-0 Baby! No Smack - Did my job this week - That's all.
Some great calls on the "Other Games" too (Bottom of Post) 


Pregame____________________________ 
I spent a lot of time this week laying out the match up grids I use - so I can see every aspect of each game more clearly. It really helped. I'm surprised more games did not qualify - but Parody, just because I did a lot of work - doesn't mean we get a lot of picks. 

Just a note - As a rule - I do not pick a Favorite if the Dog wins in the Red Zone. I did on 2 picks this week - BUF and NE.

There were a few games I did not bother to cap:
1. Off the Falcons
2. Giants stats mean nothing for a week or so after the Saints game.
3. PHI and DAL - Romo? and wouldn't touch either team anyway.
4. SD and CHI both risky teams - but I will do a Match Up for Monday night - never know?

Other Games (Below)
Panthers dominate the Green Bay Matchup - But - Not on Offense. Mostly gut Not Picking them?  The MIN vs STL games looks like a great Under - But the Total is factored Low at (40) The potential Over in the Jets games was not factored.
  
THIS WEEKS PICKS

@CIN -11.5 vs CLE (WIN)

@NYJ vs JAC (OVER) (42.5) (WIN)

 @BUF -3 vs MIA (WIN)

@NE -14 vs WAS (WIN)

HEAD TO HEAD 
(CLICK, LEFT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE, MAGNIFY TO ENLARGE)

BANK RECEIPT

OTHER GAMES

NFL PICKS WEEK 9 THURSDAY NIGHT 2015

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Posting Schedule
Thursday Night Match Up - THU 1 pm (PDT) 
All Other Games  - SAT 2pm (PDT)

Note 
The new stat that I have implemented called me off this game. However, the match up is too one sided and with the injuries to Cleveland I had to go for it. No one stats can dictate everything - so I'm Hoping this game is an exception.

@CIN -11.5 vs CLE (45.5)
Projected CIN 38-13 (51)
BANK BET CIN -11.5
 
Sorry to post late - But - Injuries changed my mind on this one. I am NOT a fan of Andy Dalton, but Browns defense is devastated by injuries. As you know McCown is also out and so is Hawkins -Hartline has stepped up nice in his place - But CIN wins this Match Up Huge. And Manzel is like a box of chocolates. Bengals may not win the Red Zone on Offense but 59% is close and they score a lot from outside the 20. CIN by 14+

HEAD TO HEAD

BANK RECEIPT

 

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 8 RESULTS

en·tro·py

ˈentrəpē/

noun

[ lack of order or predictability; gradual decline into disorder ]


As much as I hated math in school - I realize now it is part of the world we live in, and is visible in our lives on a daily basis. So why doesn't the outcome of so many NFL games add up. I wont even rehash in detail how many times we have made the right call and been burned in the last few minutes of a game this year. 

If you follow me - you have seen our match up predictions come alive - like we have a crystal ball - we said they could run - they did - we said they would dominate - they did - we called he exact score on several games. And yet, we are only 47% this year so far. That is still 2% better than the best pros - but about 27% below our average. 

I am not ready yet to concede to "entropy" as the only constant in trying to beat the NFL spread. Parody has made it a bigger factor than ever before - but - it is still football and the very principals of math tell us that 2 + 2 should = 4 most of the time.

I am implementing additional data this week to help us factor recent performance. What I am NOT doing is changing the system. If we are making good calls that go bad for no good reason -  we just have to ride it out, and odds are, it will even out in our favor.

I'm looking forward to the 2nd half of the season. Week 9 is just the beginning of our 3rd quarter. I'll see if I can score a few points for us this week.


FINAL BANK STATEMENT WEEK 8