Saturday, January 19, 2013

Final Picks AFC NFC Playoffs

I know it gets a little crazy with all the cross bets in my last post. So, to keep it simple - Here are my Final Recommendations for this weekend. It is, in my opinion a (2) Bet Weekend - so here are the Two (3 team) Tickets I Think have the Best Chance to win. 

IF YOU CAN ONLY MAKE (1) BET

SF-4
OVER (49) - SF vs ATL
NE-7.5

WHY SF-4 / OVER: SF (5th) ranked Rush Offense should run on a weak (24th) ATL Rush Def and Aldon Smith (19.5 sacks) should penetrate the poor (24th) Offensive Line of ATL. These are Two Explosive Offenses that will not be contained. Thus the OVER.

WHY NE - 7.5: BAL (27th) Def Line and (22nd) Rush Def should open up the run for Ridley and (#1) Pats Rush Off. This will open up Pass Game for Brady. Brady will not Blink. Pats 20 INTs and +25 T/O Rato will be the difference. Pats only weaknesses are matched by Bal weaknesses - NE 19th Pass Def vs Bal 15th Pass Off and NE 21st Def F-Pos vs Bal 18th Off F-Pos.



IF YOU CAN MAKE (2) BETS TO COVER

ATL+4
BAL+7.5
UNDER (51.5) - NE vs BAL

WHY ATL+4: There are Intangibles in this game. Kaepernick is Cocky and lofts the ball vs 9th ranked ATL Pass Def with 20 INTs and a +13 T/O Ratio. So worth a cover at +4.

WHY BAL+7.5 / UNDER (51.5): My original forecast for the Pats game was 30 degrees with 20 mile an hour winds. Early this week - Some Jack Ass on NFL Channel updated that to a balmy 45. I was right the first time. Wind Chill of 20 Degrees and Gusts to 20. (wind is the under's best friend) Thus I am covering Baltimore +7.5 and the UNDER.

PROJECTED OUTCOMES:

SF BY 7 / OVER (49)
NE BY 7 UNDER (51.5)

Check out my posts below for more stats and detailed game summaries. 


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