"Sea Biscuit" Progressive Bank for the Little Guy

Last week we dismissed Parlays as child's play. Then A Parlay saved our ass. Does that mean they are a good investment all of a sudden? Yes and No. We're not gonna hit one every week or even every other week. A Single or Straight bet is still how smart money bets. However, after crunching the numbers all week - I found a way to spread the risk of a parlay and actually increase our odds of winning. If your reaction just now was a Lewis Black Lip Whinny - that's understandable. Here's How I did it. 

We've averaged 70% vs the NFL Spread Over 4 Years
60% in our worst year

3 Single Bets
(Require) 2 Out of 3 -  66%

2 Singles and 1 - 3 Team Parlay
(Require) Only 3 Out of 5 - 60%

As you can see (below) - the Parlay can actually Absorb Losses Creating a Profit.
If Both Losses Hit the Parlay  - We actually Make More Money than if the Parlay Hit
If the Losses Take out the Parlay and a Single Bet - we only lose 24% of that weeks Cash.
Theoretically - We could go 2-3 and Make 53% if All 3 Losses Hit the Parlay. 
The Goal will be to Protect the 2 single bets by placing our Top Picks as Singles

Risk Reward:  3 of 5 - 60% Adding a 3 Team Parlay 

Here is Our Current Traditional Strategy
Return: 3 Single Bets
 















With Our New Formula - We are now able to make the same amount of Gain with a lower Win %.  I looked at using a 2 Team Parlay - But - it absorbed less Risk for Less Return. 
Return: 2 Single (40%) Each with 1 3 Team Parlay (20%)

As you can see Above - We make the Same Return with a Lower Winning % and More Potential for Gain. If a Single and the Parlay Hit - We have one Hell of a Week. 

All of the Above Require a Win% of 60%. This is Gambling - Don't Invest the Rent Money!

I am hoping this super charged version of our "Progressive Bank" will benefit us.
It does provide us little guys with an added chance to hit a big week without substantially increasing our Risk. For that reason I have named this formula "Sea Biscuit"

Red Pollard: 
 "Sometimes when the little guy doesn't know hes the little guy he can do great big things".

Good Luck I'll have this Weeks Picks up by Tomorrow or Friday. 

Thursday Night
At this point I Like KC -3 at Home for Thursday
HOU has a better Defense than DEN - they covered 7 Easy vs them @ HOU
Manning is in Decline and they are at Arrowhead this  week.

- Rick Jansen