I said I was no thrilled with last weeks games and thought of just making one bet. Turns out - for good reason. The Sportbooks cleaned up and the Experts got clobbered.
Example, we were 9-2 82% going into Week 3. The top NFL pros according to http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/picks/records/ were 73% and 71%.
This morning, after week 3, the Top Pros dropped to 68% and we're at 64%.
One Bet and One Loss would have left us at 75% - leading the Pros.
Lesson Learned - Don't Like the Games - Take a Week OFF.
THE GOOD NEWS
Our Progressive Parlay Strategy Works!
1 Winner and 2 Losing weeks = Our Progressive Bank is UP $20.
MADE GREAT CALLS!
We went 11-5 predicting game results aside from the system picks.
(See Head to Head Below)
ONLY USED PARTIAL SYSTEM!
The System went 2-9. I called OFF 6 potential Losses. So this could have been a lot worse.
In Fairness to The System, we've only been using the Scoring Projections this year. That's only 30% of the System. I Revised the Original System - so it only takes me about an Hour per Week. I will be using the Full System the rest of the year,
Guess How many Picks the Full System Qualified? (0)
Not a single team in Week 3 Won: Rush Pass and Red Zone Offense.
HOW THE SYSTEM WORKS! (Simplified)
(1) The System complies Stats for all 32 Teams
These include:
PO: Pass Offense
PD: Pass Defense
RO: Rush Offense
PD: Rush Defense
RZ: Red Zone Offense
(See Head to Head Below)
and other stats. Those stats are not just pulled from NFL.com. They are a combination of specific stats used to complete each category.
(2) Those Stats are Matched Head to Head for each game
Example:
Favorite PO (Pass Offense) is 5th
Dog PD (Pass Defense) is 10th
Favorite PO 5
(See Head to Head Below)
(3) Scoring Data is also complied and matched up to arrive at Projected Scores. This determines how much a team WILL + or WILL NOT - cover the spread (BY)
Full System
I mention week 1 that I would not fully Cap all 32 teams.
I was just using the Scoring (Step 3).
That worked pretty well, But, those Head to head Stats (Step 2) dramatically effect Scoring projections and whether a team will cover or Not.
As I mentioned (above), not a single team qualified (Step 2) Week 3.
Qualifying
So, there are 2 Qualifier now, like last year.
1. Favorite covers The Spread (BY) 4 or more or if -4 or less Dog Covers
2. Favorite or Dog must Win RO (Rush Offense) , PO (Pass Offense) RZ (Red Zone Offense)
(See Head to Head Below)
Strategy + Full System + Great Start!
I spent days last week making the System plug and play manageable. It only takes a few hours to do now. So, we have a betting strategy that works and a proven System. My goal this year is 65% plus. But any Pro will tell you 60% would place us at the Top with the Best Pros in the world by year end. So, we are off to a Great start!
WEEK 3 HEAD TO HEAD (RESULTS)
(Click, View Image, Magnify)
Note: This is Last weeks Partial System, The Check Marks show Cover (BY)
But in the Full System (Next Week) - The team names Would only Light Up is Green Or Brown if they also win the Match Up RO, PO, and RZ. None Qualified Week 3
BANK BALANCE
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