NEW LOOK IS LIVE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT!
I LIKE THE EARLY LINE - CIN - 3
VIEW QUICK VIEW:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK9NFLGAMES.html
Free NFL Handicapping Forum (Click Comments to Post. No Sign Up Needed)
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
EARLY LINE MOVES WEEK 9 NFL
I LIKE THE 3 UNDERLINED AS EARLY LINE RICK PICKS
DOING STATS BEFORE I DO FINAL RICK PICKS
Favorite Spread Opened Underdog
Cincinnati -3 PK At Miami
At Carolina -7.5 Atlanta
At Dallas -10.5 Minnesota
New Orleans -6 -3.5 At NY Jets
Tennessee -3 At St. Louis
Kansas City -3.5 At Buffalo
At Washington -1 San Diego
At Oakland -2.5 Philadelphia
At Seattle -16 Tampa Bay
Baltimore -2.5 At Cleveland
At New England -6.5 6.5 Pittsburgh
Indianapolis -2.5 PK At Houston
At Green Bay -10.5 Chicago
DOING STATS BEFORE I DO FINAL RICK PICKS
Favorite Spread Opened Underdog
Cincinnati -3 PK At Miami
At Carolina -7.5 Atlanta
At Dallas -10.5 Minnesota
New Orleans -6 -3.5 At NY Jets
Tennessee -3 At St. Louis
Kansas City -3.5 At Buffalo
At Washington -1 San Diego
At Oakland -2.5 Philadelphia
At Seattle -16 Tampa Bay
Baltimore -2.5 At Cleveland
At New England -6.5 6.5 Pittsburgh
Indianapolis -2.5 PK At Houston
At Green Bay -10.5 Chicago
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
WEEK 8 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013
SYSTEM SEASON TOTAL 32 - 15 68%
SYSTEM WEEK (8) 1 - 2 33%
RICK SEASON TOTAL 6 - 3 67% (New Protocol - from wk 7)
RICK WEEK (8) 3 - 3 50%
View Results:
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk82013.html
Voodoo Dolls and Witching Sticks
If I had to bet the games all over again tomorrow - I wouldn't change a single pick.
When Teams like KC and SEA cant cover easy spreads against weak ass teams like CLE and STL - you have to pinch yourself. It makes you wonder if Voodoo Dolls and Witching Sticks would be be better suited to calling these games than solid statistical data.
Thanks "Calvin" for your comments, consistent support and for sharing your in-depth knowledge of handicapping. You and "Mike L" went the ATS route on SEA and it payed off. I am adding an ATS strip to this weeks Matchups just for you guys.
First Losing Week EVER!
However, Like Calvin said, The average Handicapper is below 50%, the best in the world last year - finished in the low 60s. We are way ahead of the competition at 68%. There will always be games that defy common sense and stats. No one can ever call those consistently. There have just been a few more of those than normal this year. Thus, our first losing week EVER!
To be fair to the System - I called Off 3 Losers and 2 Winners. So, the system - without my intervention went 4-4 50% this week. But, I saved the System from a losing record a few times before by doing that. I am not going to tarnish the System record by playing fast and lose with outcomes. So, 1-2 this week.
Thanks to "Calvin" and his realistic input - rather than mourning this weeks 1 -2 outcome - I will celebrate our 2 1/2 years without a losing week. You will have to ask Calvin (check the comments section) if any other handicappers have done that before. I have no idea.
Anyway - just like a good QB - we have to have to learn from our mistakes and have a short memory at the same time. When I played beach volleyball - after a bad play we yelled "Next Play! Ready for week 9!
NEW LOOK FOR WEEK 9
Color
One challenge I have always had - is making the System pages easier for everyone to read.
All the Data I use - tends to bleed into the pages I build. As my secretary stated last week; This makes for enough color to "give an epileptic a fit." I need to see Red for low ranks and Blue for High, Fav color and Dog color, etc. The New Look gives us that without a hundred bright color boxes.
Abreviations
Also, my abbreviations are not always easy to understand. Huge legends are also a pain. So I tried to make it so everybody can know what each stat means - by spelling them out.
Totals
The new platform also gives me the ability to factor additional point tendencies. Mike L. pointed out that the "Final" totals often go over the "Projected" totals. He credits 4th quarter scoring as one factor accounting for this. Example: TB would probably not have been allowed to Score at the end of the CAR game is the Panthers were not already up by 3 TDs.
The problem, is that calling Winners and Calling Totals are two different things. You can add points to get closer to the Total and screw up whether the a team covers or not. So, I will be very cautious about adding or subtracting points. The System will continue to focus on calling Winners. I would love to have a conversation about what qualifies as an additional point tendency if Calvin or anyone else wants to post a comment.
Right now - the system already crosses Rushing TDs vs Rushing TDs allowed, same with Passing and FGs. The only thing it adds is 3 points for Home field advantage. Love to hear what else might be worth factoring.
Overs and Unders
Keep an eye on the totals too though. Overs and Unders will be clearly defined on the new platform. The qualifiers for Over and Unders have been upgraded too.
Quick View
I will be releasing a new lay out on Happycapper.com tomorrow (Wed) for the Quick View. It only shows the Games and spread along with the Picks and most important Matchup Results - MUP / OL / BY. There will also be Injury Alerts on that page. Should be a lot cleaner. You can get what you need quick that and in one click - read the Matchup if you want more info and injury details.
Matchups
You will now be able to click on any game and go directly to a full Matchup - with simplified Headings for each set of Data, Full injuries, Player Data and more. I Hope you like it - your comments and suggestions will be welcomed as always.
SYSTEM WEEK (8) 1 - 2 33%
RICK SEASON TOTAL 6 - 3 67% (New Protocol - from wk 7)
RICK WEEK (8) 3 - 3 50%
View Results:
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk82013.html
Voodoo Dolls and Witching Sticks
If I had to bet the games all over again tomorrow - I wouldn't change a single pick.
When Teams like KC and SEA cant cover easy spreads against weak ass teams like CLE and STL - you have to pinch yourself. It makes you wonder if Voodoo Dolls and Witching Sticks would be be better suited to calling these games than solid statistical data.
Thanks "Calvin" for your comments, consistent support and for sharing your in-depth knowledge of handicapping. You and "Mike L" went the ATS route on SEA and it payed off. I am adding an ATS strip to this weeks Matchups just for you guys.
First Losing Week EVER!
However, Like Calvin said, The average Handicapper is below 50%, the best in the world last year - finished in the low 60s. We are way ahead of the competition at 68%. There will always be games that defy common sense and stats. No one can ever call those consistently. There have just been a few more of those than normal this year. Thus, our first losing week EVER!
To be fair to the System - I called Off 3 Losers and 2 Winners. So, the system - without my intervention went 4-4 50% this week. But, I saved the System from a losing record a few times before by doing that. I am not going to tarnish the System record by playing fast and lose with outcomes. So, 1-2 this week.
Thanks to "Calvin" and his realistic input - rather than mourning this weeks 1 -2 outcome - I will celebrate our 2 1/2 years without a losing week. You will have to ask Calvin (check the comments section) if any other handicappers have done that before. I have no idea.
Anyway - just like a good QB - we have to have to learn from our mistakes and have a short memory at the same time. When I played beach volleyball - after a bad play we yelled "Next Play! Ready for week 9!
NEW LOOK FOR WEEK 9
Color
One challenge I have always had - is making the System pages easier for everyone to read.
All the Data I use - tends to bleed into the pages I build. As my secretary stated last week; This makes for enough color to "give an epileptic a fit." I need to see Red for low ranks and Blue for High, Fav color and Dog color, etc. The New Look gives us that without a hundred bright color boxes.
Abreviations
Also, my abbreviations are not always easy to understand. Huge legends are also a pain. So I tried to make it so everybody can know what each stat means - by spelling them out.
Totals
The new platform also gives me the ability to factor additional point tendencies. Mike L. pointed out that the "Final" totals often go over the "Projected" totals. He credits 4th quarter scoring as one factor accounting for this. Example: TB would probably not have been allowed to Score at the end of the CAR game is the Panthers were not already up by 3 TDs.
The problem, is that calling Winners and Calling Totals are two different things. You can add points to get closer to the Total and screw up whether the a team covers or not. So, I will be very cautious about adding or subtracting points. The System will continue to focus on calling Winners. I would love to have a conversation about what qualifies as an additional point tendency if Calvin or anyone else wants to post a comment.
Right now - the system already crosses Rushing TDs vs Rushing TDs allowed, same with Passing and FGs. The only thing it adds is 3 points for Home field advantage. Love to hear what else might be worth factoring.
Overs and Unders
Keep an eye on the totals too though. Overs and Unders will be clearly defined on the new platform. The qualifiers for Over and Unders have been upgraded too.
Quick View
I will be releasing a new lay out on Happycapper.com tomorrow (Wed) for the Quick View. It only shows the Games and spread along with the Picks and most important Matchup Results - MUP / OL / BY. There will also be Injury Alerts on that page. Should be a lot cleaner. You can get what you need quick that and in one click - read the Matchup if you want more info and injury details.
Matchups
You will now be able to click on any game and go directly to a full Matchup - with simplified Headings for each set of Data, Full injuries, Player Data and more. I Hope you like it - your comments and suggestions will be welcomed as always.
Monday, October 28, 2013
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WEEK 8 ANALYSIS
Bevell Driving Porsche Off the Cliff In Seattle. Again!
When the #2 team in the NFL - plays the 25th ranked team - there are certain things you expect to see. Long sustained drives by one team - followed by hopeless 3 and outs by the other. If the 25th ranked team just lost it's starting QB - you expect that in spades.
That is exactly what we saw tonight. Only it was the #2 team that only executed 1 Rushing First Down All Night and only 5 Total. The NFL avg is 20 1st downs per game. I calculated the numbers before the game tonight on an updated system we will use next week. I re-figured the final score at (44) 35 - 9 Seattle. That must have been pretty accurate, as the Odds-makers called the over at 44 too. St Louis scored 9 points as projected. The long trip didn't keep the overworked Seattle defense from preventing a single TD.
How does arguably the best team in the NFL nearly lose to a 25th ranked team - without it's starting QB? It wasn't the cross country road trip. Sorry Mike.
One simple answer:
Play Calling!
Fact: STL has the 25th Ranked Rush Defense.
Fact: SEA has the 5th Ranked Rush Offense - #1 by Yards Per Game.
Fact: Marshawn Lynch is the 4th Ranked RB in the entire League.
Fact: SEA Ran the ball only with 8 times - all Night!
I have voiced my concern over bad play calling in Seattle on several occasions:
At the end of last season:
http://happycapper.blogspot.com/2013/01/seattle-threw-it-away-litterally.html
Also earlier this month: http://happycapper.blogspot.com/2013/10/thursday-night-footbal-week-7-summary.html
The Blame for this Falls Squarely on One Man.
Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell.
Or Does it?
Bad play calling cost the Seahawks a trip to he Superbowl last year. If someone drives your finely tuned, formula one race car - into a tree - you don't let them keep the keys. You really do have to scratch your head and ask - Who is the hell is this Guy? I only looked him up in order to spell his name right. The more I looked into to him - the more I started to feel like Woodard and Bernstein.
First of all - Bevell is a Perennial Loser who never played professional football himself. He was Dumped by the Cellar Dwelling Vikings - just prior to being picked up by Seattle. Before that he was QB coach for Brent Farve in Green Bay. Farve needed a QB Coach? Reminds me of the Horse show guy being appointed head of FEMA. The more I peeled the layers back - the more my eyes started to water.
Turns out Seattle has fired 3 Offensive coordinators in the last 4 years. His predecessor Jeremy Bates was fired due to "Philosophical Differences" between Bates and Carrol. Josh McDaniel interviewed for the open position. That would have made sense - young creative Patriots assistant with head coaching experience in Denver. Nice pedigree. Who the hell chose Bevell?
Carroll did! He conducted the final interview with Bevell and hired him over McDaniel. Turns out Carroll has always been mainly a Defensive minded coach. He had to hire Offensive guru Alex Gibbs to save his ass and his job at USC after a 6-6 start. (BTW - I love Pete Carroll and the college enthusiasm he brings to a team. Uncovering the truth was not pleasant for me.)
But, there you have it. Carroll hired a lackey to run his offense and has no idea how to manage him or the play calling. Blind leading the blind. That explains the Boot, Boot, Sit Lynch, run around the backfield - strategy you saw tonight. Verses the Run, Boot, Pass I have been begging them to return to for close to a year. Guess it wasn't genius in the first place. Just a happy accident that may not be repeated anytime soon.
Too bad. I'm so tired of seeing squads of talented players - driven into the ditch by stupid coaches. Shottenheimer did it in KC by micromanaging Montana into early retirement with Marcus Allen in the backfield. Reed did it in Philly - not running the ball with 2 backs averaging 5 yards per carry. Reminds me of the song "Someone left the cake out in the Rain." With Lynch on one side and Sherman on the other - It's a hell of a nice cake. Too bad they put the icing on with a rolling pin.
When the #2 team in the NFL - plays the 25th ranked team - there are certain things you expect to see. Long sustained drives by one team - followed by hopeless 3 and outs by the other. If the 25th ranked team just lost it's starting QB - you expect that in spades.
That is exactly what we saw tonight. Only it was the #2 team that only executed 1 Rushing First Down All Night and only 5 Total. The NFL avg is 20 1st downs per game. I calculated the numbers before the game tonight on an updated system we will use next week. I re-figured the final score at (44) 35 - 9 Seattle. That must have been pretty accurate, as the Odds-makers called the over at 44 too. St Louis scored 9 points as projected. The long trip didn't keep the overworked Seattle defense from preventing a single TD.
How does arguably the best team in the NFL nearly lose to a 25th ranked team - without it's starting QB? It wasn't the cross country road trip. Sorry Mike.
One simple answer:
Play Calling!
Fact: STL has the 25th Ranked Rush Defense.
Fact: SEA has the 5th Ranked Rush Offense - #1 by Yards Per Game.
Fact: Marshawn Lynch is the 4th Ranked RB in the entire League.
Fact: SEA Ran the ball only with 8 times - all Night!
I have voiced my concern over bad play calling in Seattle on several occasions:
At the end of last season:
http://happycapper.blogspot.com/2013/01/seattle-threw-it-away-litterally.html
Also earlier this month: http://happycapper.blogspot.com/2013/10/thursday-night-footbal-week-7-summary.html
The Blame for this Falls Squarely on One Man.
Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell.
Or Does it?
Bad play calling cost the Seahawks a trip to he Superbowl last year. If someone drives your finely tuned, formula one race car - into a tree - you don't let them keep the keys. You really do have to scratch your head and ask - Who is the hell is this Guy? I only looked him up in order to spell his name right. The more I looked into to him - the more I started to feel like Woodard and Bernstein.
First of all - Bevell is a Perennial Loser who never played professional football himself. He was Dumped by the Cellar Dwelling Vikings - just prior to being picked up by Seattle. Before that he was QB coach for Brent Farve in Green Bay. Farve needed a QB Coach? Reminds me of the Horse show guy being appointed head of FEMA. The more I peeled the layers back - the more my eyes started to water.
Turns out Seattle has fired 3 Offensive coordinators in the last 4 years. His predecessor Jeremy Bates was fired due to "Philosophical Differences" between Bates and Carrol. Josh McDaniel interviewed for the open position. That would have made sense - young creative Patriots assistant with head coaching experience in Denver. Nice pedigree. Who the hell chose Bevell?
Carroll did! He conducted the final interview with Bevell and hired him over McDaniel. Turns out Carroll has always been mainly a Defensive minded coach. He had to hire Offensive guru Alex Gibbs to save his ass and his job at USC after a 6-6 start. (BTW - I love Pete Carroll and the college enthusiasm he brings to a team. Uncovering the truth was not pleasant for me.)
But, there you have it. Carroll hired a lackey to run his offense and has no idea how to manage him or the play calling. Blind leading the blind. That explains the Boot, Boot, Sit Lynch, run around the backfield - strategy you saw tonight. Verses the Run, Boot, Pass I have been begging them to return to for close to a year. Guess it wasn't genius in the first place. Just a happy accident that may not be repeated anytime soon.
Too bad. I'm so tired of seeing squads of talented players - driven into the ditch by stupid coaches. Shottenheimer did it in KC by micromanaging Montana into early retirement with Marcus Allen in the backfield. Reed did it in Philly - not running the ball with 2 backs averaging 5 yards per carry. Reminds me of the song "Someone left the cake out in the Rain." With Lynch on one side and Sherman on the other - It's a hell of a nice cake. Too bad they put the icing on with a rolling pin.
Wednesday, October 23, 2013
WEEK 8 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013
WOW! I CANT WAIT TO WATCH THIS WEEKS GAMES!
PLENTY OF POSSIBLE MONEY MAKERS!
VIEW QUICK VIEW FOR DETAILS:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK8NFLGAMES.html
( I will update more games and injuries tomorrow. )
SYSTEM PICKS
CAR - 6 OVER TB @ TB
KC -7 HOME OVER CLE
SEA - 10.5 OVER STL @ STL
RICK PICKS
EARLY PARLAY (from previous post below)
KC -7 HOME OVER CLE
2 ADDITIONAL RICK PICKS
SEA - 10.5 OVER STL @ STL ( BRADFORD OUT FOR STL )
(SEA 28-10 ) BRADFORD OUT - STL RUSH OFF 32ND - SEA DEF SHOULD FEAT ON CLEMENS. WILSON LYSCH ABOUSE 30TH RD. (SEA BY 14) - GRAB LINE NOW!
WAS + 12.5 OVER DEN @ DEN ( MANNING SORE ANKLE- DNP - PROB )
DEN 25TH PASS DEF. ADJ RANKS - 9 / 10. SKINS PLAY WITH HEART - COULD UPSET THEM.
WORTH WATCHING
MIN +9 @ HM OVER GB? ( GB INJURIES )
#2 VS #32. GB 1-2 AWAY - RUSH DEF 25TH VS PETERSON. UPSET GB LAST YR AT HM . 3 LB / 2 REC OUT FOR GB. BUT PONDER 2TD / 5 INT / 10 SK
PLENTY OF POSSIBLE MONEY MAKERS!
VIEW QUICK VIEW FOR DETAILS:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK8NFLGAMES.html
( I will update more games and injuries tomorrow. )
SYSTEM PICKS
CAR - 6 OVER TB @ TB
KC -7 HOME OVER CLE
SEA - 10.5 OVER STL @ STL
RICK PICKS
EARLY PARLAY (from previous post below)
KC -7 HOME OVER CLE
NE
-6.5 HM OVER MIA
OAK
+3 HM OVER PIT2 ADDITIONAL RICK PICKS
SEA - 10.5 OVER STL @ STL ( BRADFORD OUT FOR STL )
(SEA 28-10 ) BRADFORD OUT - STL RUSH OFF 32ND - SEA DEF SHOULD FEAT ON CLEMENS. WILSON LYSCH ABOUSE 30TH RD. (SEA BY 14) - GRAB LINE NOW!
WAS + 12.5 OVER DEN @ DEN ( MANNING SORE ANKLE- DNP - PROB )
DEN 25TH PASS DEF. ADJ RANKS - 9 / 10. SKINS PLAY WITH HEART - COULD UPSET THEM.
WORTH WATCHING
MIN +9 @ HM OVER GB? ( GB INJURIES )
#2 VS #32. GB 1-2 AWAY - RUSH DEF 25TH VS PETERSON. UPSET GB LAST YR AT HM . 3 LB / 2 REC OUT FOR GB. BUT PONDER 2TD / 5 INT / 10 SK
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 8 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT EARLY (SYSTEM) LINE PICK!
SYSTEM PICK - CAR - 6 OVER TB @ TB
CAR RUSH DEF #2 - RB DOUG MARTIN DBT- FOR TB!
BUP LEONARD - 1 TD - 71 GAMES - AVG 3YDS PER CARRY
PROB TO START MIKE JAMES - ROOKIE VS CAR DEF - 17 CARRIES AVG 3.4, 0-TD
UNLESS NEWTON AND RIVERA GET STUPID AGAIN - SHOULD BE EASY COVER FOR CAR.
GRAB THE LINE BEFORE IT MOVES TO -7
VIEW MATCHUP:
http://www.happycapper.com/ThuW8.html
MONDAY NIGHT EARLY (SYSTEM) LINE PICK!
SYSTEM PICK - SEA - 10.5 OVER STL @ STL
BRADFORD OUT FOR STL - CLEMENS SHOULD START.
STL RUSH OFF 32ND - WONT HELP CLEMENS - SEA DLINE SHOULD FEAST
LYNCH AND WILSON SHOULD RUN ALL OVER 30TH RANKED STL RUSH DEF.
GRAB THE SEA LINE BEFORE IT GOES TO -14!
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
WEEK 8 - EARLY LINE - RICK PICK PARLAY
Yellow is a Potentially Time Sensitive Line.
KC -7 HOME OVER CLE
KC -7 HOME OVER CLE
NE
-6.5 HM OVER MIA
OAK
+3 HM OVER PIT
Good Luck!
Good Luck!
WEEK 7 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013
SYSTEM SEASON TOTAL 31-13 70%
WEEK 7 4-2 67%
View results: http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk72013.html
SYSTEM
The System did it's job this week. We also hit our Goal of producing a 3 team Parlay Winner.
Teams that Qualified for all 3 Qualifiers - 1-0 SD over JAC 100%
FAVs winning the (MUP) 3-1 75%
FAVs winning (OL) by 20+ 3-1 75%
RICK PICKs
Although I provided us with a 3 team Parlay Winner - Rick Picks need some improvement. The good news is the solution is simple. Mike L gave me some good advice last week. "You are picking too many teams" he said.
One reason for picking so many teams - is my wanting to help us all figure out 2 team parlays for the Thursday Night and Monday Night Games. This also requires me to call 2 extra Overs or Unders. If I skip the Over Unders and The Monday NIght Game - I would have gone 4-2. Add those 3 Picks and I'm 4-5. No one asked for that anyway and the Matchups provide everything anyone needs to make an educated guess.
I picked the winning parlay without the system by glancing at the spreads and using 6 weeks of knowledge to deduce winners. I never include the Thursday Night game in any weekend Parlays. This week I did and Won. By NOT separating the Thu and Mon night games - I was able to narrow all the games down to the 3 best in my head. That's only one week though - so the System has a much better record than I do. Either way - Less is More in this case.
Starting this week - Rick Picks will not include any Overs or Unders (unless Quialified by the System) - or Gut calls for the Mon or Thu games. I will also not include System Picks that I agree with. Just my "Early Line Rick Pick Parlays." ( Thanks Anom for reminding me of the value of early lines). This should narrow the Rick Picks down from 6 or 7 to 3 or 4.
I really only care about the System Record - but I wouldn't mind having a winning record every week too. I am starting Over as of Last Week - following Last weeks Protocol from here on out. So Far I am 3-3 100%. But I'll have to keep Hitting Every Week to Keep a Good Record for the Rest of the Year.
Wish me Luck!
WEEK 7 4-2 67%
View results: http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk72013.html
SYSTEM
The System did it's job this week. We also hit our Goal of producing a 3 team Parlay Winner.
Teams that Qualified for all 3 Qualifiers - 1-0 SD over JAC 100%
FAVs winning the (MUP) 3-1 75%
FAVs winning (OL) by 20+ 3-1 75%
RICK PICKs
Although I provided us with a 3 team Parlay Winner - Rick Picks need some improvement. The good news is the solution is simple. Mike L gave me some good advice last week. "You are picking too many teams" he said.
One reason for picking so many teams - is my wanting to help us all figure out 2 team parlays for the Thursday Night and Monday Night Games. This also requires me to call 2 extra Overs or Unders. If I skip the Over Unders and The Monday NIght Game - I would have gone 4-2. Add those 3 Picks and I'm 4-5. No one asked for that anyway and the Matchups provide everything anyone needs to make an educated guess.
I picked the winning parlay without the system by glancing at the spreads and using 6 weeks of knowledge to deduce winners. I never include the Thursday Night game in any weekend Parlays. This week I did and Won. By NOT separating the Thu and Mon night games - I was able to narrow all the games down to the 3 best in my head. That's only one week though - so the System has a much better record than I do. Either way - Less is More in this case.
Starting this week - Rick Picks will not include any Overs or Unders (unless Quialified by the System) - or Gut calls for the Mon or Thu games. I will also not include System Picks that I agree with. Just my "Early Line Rick Pick Parlays." ( Thanks Anom for reminding me of the value of early lines). This should narrow the Rick Picks down from 6 or 7 to 3 or 4.
I really only care about the System Record - but I wouldn't mind having a winning record every week too. I am starting Over as of Last Week - following Last weeks Protocol from here on out. So Far I am 3-3 100%. But I'll have to keep Hitting Every Week to Keep a Good Record for the Rest of the Year.
Wish me Luck!
Monday, October 21, 2013
VIKINGS DEFEAT MINNESOTA 23-7
No, that is not a typo. New York finally got its first win - but the Giants had little or nothing to do with it.
Vikings Receivers were open all night and the Giants Pass Rush was all but non existent. The only thing New York did accomplish was stopping the run. This is surprising as they are 24th in Rush Defense vs the 10th ranked Viking Rush Offense.
The Vikings offensive performance qualifies as one of the the worst football games ever played by a professional team.
Josh Freeman overthrew open receivers from the gate. He never adjusted his passes and continued to do so all night. He was praised for all the time he spent studying the playbook during the 13 days he had to prepare. Perhaps that detracted from the time he should have spent throwing footballs at receivers on the practice field. If so, not his fault. Fraiser was maybe asking for too much too soon from the rusty vet.
Peterson was unable to establish any semblance of a run game. He was stonewalled on every play.
The only Minnesota points came on a punt return. The offense failed to score a single point. At least the system called that right. The only stats they ranked high in - were Rush Offense and Field Position Offense.
The Vikings defense did play very well. But, a series of unending 3 and outs tired them enough to let the Giants score 23 points. Give them credit though - they never gave up and made stops up until the last few minutes. .
The only explanation I have - is the inability of the Viking offensive line to give Freeman time or open a hole for Peterson on the first few series. Before he could complete his first 3 step drop - Freeman was face to face with an unblocked def linemen. It is possible that rattled Freeman. The lack of blocking continued throughout the game and would explain the absolute absence of any run game for the Vikings. If you can't run you can't pass. If this was a poker game - Freeman's cards were face up all night. Don't credit the Giants - they had few if any sacks and were only able to hurry Freeman. Good offensive lines win games. Bad lines lose them. We knew going in - these were two of the worst.
I was reminded of a fact I will not forget after tonight's game. Every team wants to score as often as possible. So, what do bad teams do? Cover the UNDER. Only Two Stats were needed in order to predict the Under tonight. 1-4 and 0-6.
-Rick Jansen
Vikings Receivers were open all night and the Giants Pass Rush was all but non existent. The only thing New York did accomplish was stopping the run. This is surprising as they are 24th in Rush Defense vs the 10th ranked Viking Rush Offense.
The Vikings offensive performance qualifies as one of the the worst football games ever played by a professional team.
Josh Freeman overthrew open receivers from the gate. He never adjusted his passes and continued to do so all night. He was praised for all the time he spent studying the playbook during the 13 days he had to prepare. Perhaps that detracted from the time he should have spent throwing footballs at receivers on the practice field. If so, not his fault. Fraiser was maybe asking for too much too soon from the rusty vet.
Peterson was unable to establish any semblance of a run game. He was stonewalled on every play.
The only Minnesota points came on a punt return. The offense failed to score a single point. At least the system called that right. The only stats they ranked high in - were Rush Offense and Field Position Offense.
The Vikings defense did play very well. But, a series of unending 3 and outs tired them enough to let the Giants score 23 points. Give them credit though - they never gave up and made stops up until the last few minutes. .
The only explanation I have - is the inability of the Viking offensive line to give Freeman time or open a hole for Peterson on the first few series. Before he could complete his first 3 step drop - Freeman was face to face with an unblocked def linemen. It is possible that rattled Freeman. The lack of blocking continued throughout the game and would explain the absolute absence of any run game for the Vikings. If you can't run you can't pass. If this was a poker game - Freeman's cards were face up all night. Don't credit the Giants - they had few if any sacks and were only able to hurry Freeman. Good offensive lines win games. Bad lines lose them. We knew going in - these were two of the worst.
I was reminded of a fact I will not forget after tonight's game. Every team wants to score as often as possible. So, what do bad teams do? Cover the UNDER. Only Two Stats were needed in order to predict the Under tonight. 1-4 and 0-6.
-Rick Jansen
OVER UNDER WEEK 7 NFL MONDAY NIGHT
HERE ARE THE STATS - YOU MAKE THE CALL:
PASS OFF BAD (Under)
PASS DEF - BAD (Over) ________PUSH
OFF LINES - BAD (Under)
BOOK TOTAL - 48 PROJECTED TOTAL 49 MIN 29- 20 (Over)
PICKING A WINNER
MIN
Both teams stats are equally bad. The only edge in this game goes to MIN on a few Stat Categories - Rush Offense and Def Liine 10th and 15th vs NYG Rush Def and Def Line 24th and 32nd. This could set the stage for a big night for Peterson - playing for his dead son - which no one seems to have been overlooked with all the talk ogf Giants needing a win. Also, Freeman averaged few (1.6) sacks per game in (2012). This could allow Jerome Simpson to have a big night. Offensive Field Position goes to MIN as well.
NYG
On the other hand - the MIN Pass Def is (29th) vs Cruz and NIcks - dangerous targets.
Obviously the intangible here is that Giants are at Home and desperately in need of a win. Just like Steelers last week - that motivation could make the stats worthless.
This game is worth watching. if only to see which scenario plays out.
The line has gone to NYG - 3.5. So, with close losses being the trend with the Giants - when they are even in the game - If the Giants Win - it could be by a field goal - I love the .5 Hook and MIN to cover.
Taking ( MIN + 3.5 and the Over )
PASS OFF BAD (Under)
OFF LINES - BAD (Under)
DEF LINES - BAD(Over)________PUSH
FPOS - BAD (Under)
TEAM EFF - AVG (Push)
FPOS - BAD (Under)
TEAM EFF - AVG (Push)
RED ZONE OFF - GOOD - AVG
60% (Over)
3RD DOWN % - GOOD (Over)
3RD DOWN % - GOOD (Over)
PUNTS / PEN - AVG (Push)
PROJ YARDS PER TEAM - AVG (Push)
PROJ 1ST DOWNS - AVG (Push)
PROJECTED TDS PER GAME - GOOD (Over)
PROJ YARDS PER TEAM - AVG (Push)
PROJ 1ST DOWNS - AVG (Push)
PROJECTED TDS PER GAME - GOOD (Over)
BOOK TOTAL - 48 PROJECTED TOTAL 49 MIN 29- 20 (Over)
Based on what I see - The Pass Off and Off Lines (Unders) seems to cancel each other out as the Pass Def and Def Lines (Overs) are Bad too. That Leaves (1 Under) - Fpos,
3 (Overs) and 3 (Pushes). Nothing Concrete! But - Stats lean towards the (Over) (48).
The Over Under Stats may all be Non Sense - just my Humble attempt at trying to make an educated Guess. If you think these teams will continue their stumbling, bumbling ways - take the (Under) You make the Call.
3 (Overs) and 3 (Pushes). Nothing Concrete! But - Stats lean towards the (Over) (48).
The Over Under Stats may all be Non Sense - just my Humble attempt at trying to make an educated Guess. If you think these teams will continue their stumbling, bumbling ways - take the (Under) You make the Call.
PICKING A WINNER
MIN
Both teams stats are equally bad. The only edge in this game goes to MIN on a few Stat Categories - Rush Offense and Def Liine 10th and 15th vs NYG Rush Def and Def Line 24th and 32nd. This could set the stage for a big night for Peterson - playing for his dead son - which no one seems to have been overlooked with all the talk ogf Giants needing a win. Also, Freeman averaged few (1.6) sacks per game in (2012). This could allow Jerome Simpson to have a big night. Offensive Field Position goes to MIN as well.
NYG
On the other hand - the MIN Pass Def is (29th) vs Cruz and NIcks - dangerous targets.
Obviously the intangible here is that Giants are at Home and desperately in need of a win. Just like Steelers last week - that motivation could make the stats worthless.
This game is worth watching. if only to see which scenario plays out.
The line has gone to NYG - 3.5. So, with close losses being the trend with the Giants - when they are even in the game - If the Giants Win - it could be by a field goal - I love the .5 Hook and MIN to cover.
Taking ( MIN + 3.5 and the Over )
WINNING PARLAY WEEK 7 NFL
AS PROMISED - WINNING PARLAY FOR WEEK 7
3 TEAM PARLAY
(Win) SEA - 6.5 OVER ARI
(Win) SF - 4.5 OVER TEN
(Win) BUF +9 OVER MIA
My Rick Picks have performed poorly of late. So, no reason for anyone to follow me on that one. Hopefully I'll hit more of those and get some credibility back on the Parlays.
3 TEAM PARLAY
(Win) SEA - 6.5 OVER ARI
(Win) SF - 4.5 OVER TEN
(Win) BUF +9 OVER MIA
My Rick Picks have performed poorly of late. So, no reason for anyone to follow me on that one. Hopefully I'll hit more of those and get some credibility back on the Parlays.
Sunday, October 20, 2013
REALLY? WEEK 7 NFL
Good Week. Just a Few Crazy Calls Worth Venting about.
RAVENS
Down by just 4 - with 11 minutes left - Harbough elects to kick and onside kick.
This gave the Steelers' the ball at midfield and an easy field goal.
Ravens lost by a field goal.
Really Harbough? Stay (OFF) the Ravens. I should have known better.
CHIEFS
Chiefs played a great game - containing and eventually pressuring hot young rookie Keenum. The kids performance through most of the game was nearly flawless. Like Jesus raising Lazarus - he brought the Texans back to life. Houston Receivers can get open - you just have to throw it to them. He did, and with veteran like decision making he avoided pressure and mistakes through the entire first half. This, is spite of the Cochlear shattering noise levels generated by the home crowd.
KC did sack Keenum several times in the 4th quarter and dominated the second half. Smith hit his TE with a great pass up the middle. The play ended with the TE laying on the goal line. Looked like a TD and easy cover for KC. In a questionable call - the ball was placed within the 1 foot line. KC Then failed to score from there - twice!
With 1:34 left, with all hope of covering lost - the Chiefs strip Keenum one more time and recover the ball on The 1 yard line of Houston. KC took a knee from there twice to end the game, rather than giving Houston a chance for a comeback. . This blowing the 6.5 Cover. Just dumb luck - but Really?
PATS vs JETS
Although we didn't have money on this one - it left a lot of people angry and disapointed.
This was a very entertaining back and forth battle. Jets line up for a 56 yard field goal - Half way through the first OT period. Folk misses left, leaving time for a dramatic Brady comeback.
But there is a flag. A little known, new rule, just enacted this year, is called. A rookie on the Pats is penalized for pushing his own player forward on the line. This gave the Jets another chance to kick a game winning field goal. This time from 42 yards out. Folk makes it - game over.
OK, player safety - great. But is OT really the time to call that for the first time? The call decided the outcome of the game. Really Refs?
RAVENS
Down by just 4 - with 11 minutes left - Harbough elects to kick and onside kick.
This gave the Steelers' the ball at midfield and an easy field goal.
Ravens lost by a field goal.
Really Harbough? Stay (OFF) the Ravens. I should have known better.
CHIEFS
Chiefs played a great game - containing and eventually pressuring hot young rookie Keenum. The kids performance through most of the game was nearly flawless. Like Jesus raising Lazarus - he brought the Texans back to life. Houston Receivers can get open - you just have to throw it to them. He did, and with veteran like decision making he avoided pressure and mistakes through the entire first half. This, is spite of the Cochlear shattering noise levels generated by the home crowd.
KC did sack Keenum several times in the 4th quarter and dominated the second half. Smith hit his TE with a great pass up the middle. The play ended with the TE laying on the goal line. Looked like a TD and easy cover for KC. In a questionable call - the ball was placed within the 1 foot line. KC Then failed to score from there - twice!
With 1:34 left, with all hope of covering lost - the Chiefs strip Keenum one more time and recover the ball on The 1 yard line of Houston. KC took a knee from there twice to end the game, rather than giving Houston a chance for a comeback. . This blowing the 6.5 Cover. Just dumb luck - but Really?
PATS vs JETS
Although we didn't have money on this one - it left a lot of people angry and disapointed.
This was a very entertaining back and forth battle. Jets line up for a 56 yard field goal - Half way through the first OT period. Folk misses left, leaving time for a dramatic Brady comeback.
But there is a flag. A little known, new rule, just enacted this year, is called. A rookie on the Pats is penalized for pushing his own player forward on the line. This gave the Jets another chance to kick a game winning field goal. This time from 42 yards out. Folk makes it - game over.
OK, player safety - great. But is OT really the time to call that for the first time? The call decided the outcome of the game. Really Refs?
Friday, October 18, 2013
WEEK 7 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013
I Focused my Game Notes more on Stats and less on My opinions this week.
Lot of Good Miss Matches. Good Luck.
TOP SYSTEM PICKS
SD -7.5 Over JAC
(SD BY 14) 30-12. SD Traveling Cross Country - But even after Taking OFF 3 Points for that - SD should Cover by 14 and Cover Spread By 7. Blackmon a Threat but Ques? If Out Go SD Big!
BAL +2 Over PIT
(BAL by 7) BAL 22-17. PIT Favortie? On What Planet? BAL Should Sack Ben 4 times. BAL Bad OL but PIT DL 29th. The BAL #3 Dline will do the Most Damage vs 28th PIT Oline. BAL Superior Off Weapons
MIN +3.5 Over NYG (OFF) (Intangibles)
(OFF) MIN 29-20 MIN 10TH RO WITH PETERSON PLAYING FOR DEAD SON NAT TV VS 24TH RD. FREEMAN AT QB. NYG -18 T/O. BUT PD OF MIN 29TH VS CRUZ AND NICKS . MIN BETTER FG% AND FPOS STATS. (NO LESS THAN 3.5 VIKS).
TOP RICK PICKS
SD -7.5 Over JAC
BAL +2 Over PIT
KC -6.5 Over HOU
(KC by 14) 27-13. Only Weakness KC #16 PO vs #6 PD. KC #2 Dline vs HOU 21st Oline. Bad HOU OL, KC #1 Pass Def, @Home vs Rookie QB Keenum. KC 25% RZDef, 8th KC RO vs 22nd RD = Big Day for J Charles. Gave Keenum Benefit of Doubt as Moble Accurate College Star. Set His Stas at 2 Tds, 1 Int and 1 Sk per Game. KC still covered by 14. Maybe Next Week Kid.
BUF +8 Over MIA
(BUF +8) BUF 22-20. Advantage BUF - PD / RD / OL. System Calls BUF to WIN. Missed Qualifying by 2 Points.
QUICK VIEW MATCHUPS:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK7NFLGAMES.html
Lot of Good Miss Matches. Good Luck.
TOP SYSTEM PICKS
SD -7.5 Over JAC
(SD BY 14) 30-12. SD Traveling Cross Country - But even after Taking OFF 3 Points for that - SD should Cover by 14 and Cover Spread By 7. Blackmon a Threat but Ques? If Out Go SD Big!
BAL +2 Over PIT
(BAL by 7) BAL 22-17. PIT Favortie? On What Planet? BAL Should Sack Ben 4 times. BAL Bad OL but PIT DL 29th. The BAL #3 Dline will do the Most Damage vs 28th PIT Oline. BAL Superior Off Weapons
MIN +3.5 Over NYG (OFF) (Intangibles)
(OFF) MIN 29-20 MIN 10TH RO WITH PETERSON PLAYING FOR DEAD SON NAT TV VS 24TH RD. FREEMAN AT QB. NYG -18 T/O. BUT PD OF MIN 29TH VS CRUZ AND NICKS . MIN BETTER FG% AND FPOS STATS. (NO LESS THAN 3.5 VIKS).
TOP RICK PICKS
SD -7.5 Over JAC
BAL +2 Over PIT
KC -6.5 Over HOU
(KC by 14) 27-13. Only Weakness KC #16 PO vs #6 PD. KC #2 Dline vs HOU 21st Oline. Bad HOU OL, KC #1 Pass Def, @Home vs Rookie QB Keenum. KC 25% RZDef, 8th KC RO vs 22nd RD = Big Day for J Charles. Gave Keenum Benefit of Doubt as Moble Accurate College Star. Set His Stas at 2 Tds, 1 Int and 1 Sk per Game. KC still covered by 14. Maybe Next Week Kid.
BUF +8 Over MIA
(BUF +8) BUF 22-20. Advantage BUF - PD / RD / OL. System Calls BUF to WIN. Missed Qualifying by 2 Points.
QUICK VIEW MATCHUPS:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK7NFLGAMES.html
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBAL WEEK 7 SUMMARY
WHAT DID WE LEARN THURSDAY NIGHT?
ARI
This is a Solid Team - Offensively and Defensively. They Just Played a Much more Talented Team. Wilson vs Palmer, Lynch vs Mendenhall, Add Sherman and SEA was not a hard call. Palmer is not mobile, But his Off Line does a good job of protecting him most of the time. The Defense is also very Solid.
Expect Cardinal to Continue to Win vs Mid Level, and some Top Tier Teams.
SEA
This is a Football Machine. They are the best team in the NFL. My only Reservations are with the Offensive and Defensive Co-coordinators. Will they continue to Repeat the Same Mistakes that cost them Super Bowl last year.
SEA Offense
Wilson is running the Boot more and making the decision to Throw or Run Up Field Quickly.
However, He Can Not Stand in the Pocket and Hesitate as he did Last Night - Resulting in Two Very Costly Turnovers. Fran Tarkenton never dominated in the NFL. Defenses are twice as fast now. Wilson can not be stopped with a Quick Release, Boot Leg or Quick Run Up Field. That also opens up the Run for Lynch. Boot left. boot Right. Up the Middle with Lynch for 12. Worked perfectly last night. Stick to what Works!
Also, there is such a thing as Too Careful. Wilson had an Opportunity to put the Game away in the first half with a Gaping hole up the Middle for 30 yards and Chose to Cut Left and Run Out of Bounds. He also laid down on an important 3rd and 1. A First down at that time would have Ended the Game.The Prevent Offense in the 4th Quarter almost cost them the lead.
SEA Defense
These Players are Predators. Let them Attack for 4 Quarters. Prevent Defense only prevents wins. Giving up 15-20 yd plays does not burn time. It just gave the cardinals the ball inside the SEA 30 - twice in 5 minutes. They can Not get away with that vs Top 10 Teams like SF or DEN.
The Only Thing that will Keep SEA from Winning the Super Bowl - is Bad Coaching. Clean up the Stupid guys. Your Players Deserve Rings This Year.
- Rick Jansen
ARI
This is a Solid Team - Offensively and Defensively. They Just Played a Much more Talented Team. Wilson vs Palmer, Lynch vs Mendenhall, Add Sherman and SEA was not a hard call. Palmer is not mobile, But his Off Line does a good job of protecting him most of the time. The Defense is also very Solid.
Expect Cardinal to Continue to Win vs Mid Level, and some Top Tier Teams.
SEA
This is a Football Machine. They are the best team in the NFL. My only Reservations are with the Offensive and Defensive Co-coordinators. Will they continue to Repeat the Same Mistakes that cost them Super Bowl last year.
SEA Offense
Wilson is running the Boot more and making the decision to Throw or Run Up Field Quickly.
However, He Can Not Stand in the Pocket and Hesitate as he did Last Night - Resulting in Two Very Costly Turnovers. Fran Tarkenton never dominated in the NFL. Defenses are twice as fast now. Wilson can not be stopped with a Quick Release, Boot Leg or Quick Run Up Field. That also opens up the Run for Lynch. Boot left. boot Right. Up the Middle with Lynch for 12. Worked perfectly last night. Stick to what Works!
Also, there is such a thing as Too Careful. Wilson had an Opportunity to put the Game away in the first half with a Gaping hole up the Middle for 30 yards and Chose to Cut Left and Run Out of Bounds. He also laid down on an important 3rd and 1. A First down at that time would have Ended the Game.The Prevent Offense in the 4th Quarter almost cost them the lead.
SEA Defense
These Players are Predators. Let them Attack for 4 Quarters. Prevent Defense only prevents wins. Giving up 15-20 yd plays does not burn time. It just gave the cardinals the ball inside the SEA 30 - twice in 5 minutes. They can Not get away with that vs Top 10 Teams like SF or DEN.
The Only Thing that will Keep SEA from Winning the Super Bowl - is Bad Coaching. Clean up the Stupid guys. Your Players Deserve Rings This Year.
- Rick Jansen
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
WEEK 7 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013
HERE ARE THE EARLY MATCHUP TOTALS,
I WILL COMPLETE THE INJURIES AND ANALYSIS TOMORROW.
THE HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP LINKS WILL ALSO BE LIVE TOMORROW
http://www.happycapper.com/WK7NFLGAMES.html
NOTE: SOME TEAMS CAME WITHIN A POINT OR TWO OF QUALIFYING.
THOSE ARE NOTED BY BROWN OR GREEN BOXES.
SD / BAL / MIN TOP SYSTEM PICKS ( INJURIES NOT FACTORED YET)
BUF / CAR / DEN MISSED QUALIFYING BY JUST A FEW POINTS.
UNDER IN NE / NYJ ALSO CAME REAL CLOSE.
EARLY INJURIES
LYNCH AND FITZGERALD PROBABLE THU NITE
FREEMAN WILL START FOR MIN MONDAY NIGHT.
I WILL COMPLETE THE INJURIES AND ANALYSIS TOMORROW.
THE HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP LINKS WILL ALSO BE LIVE TOMORROW
http://www.happycapper.com/WK7NFLGAMES.html
NOTE: SOME TEAMS CAME WITHIN A POINT OR TWO OF QUALIFYING.
THOSE ARE NOTED BY BROWN OR GREEN BOXES.
SD / BAL / MIN TOP SYSTEM PICKS ( INJURIES NOT FACTORED YET)
BUF / CAR / DEN MISSED QUALIFYING BY JUST A FEW POINTS.
UNDER IN NE / NYJ ALSO CAME REAL CLOSE.
EARLY INJURIES
LYNCH AND FITZGERALD PROBABLE THU NITE
FREEMAN WILL START FOR MIN MONDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 7 2013
SEA DOES NOT QUALIFY AS SYSTEM PIC. MUP (+24) OL (-1)
BUT COVERS SPREAD - 6.5 IN SYSTEM MATCHUP BY 3+
OVER / UNDER - 3. OFF. DID NOT QUALIFY IN MATCH UP TOTAL.
BIG MISSMATCH PD OF SEA #2 VS 24TH PO OF ARI.
BOTH TEAMS GOOD RD.
SEA RO 3#. ARI RO 16TH.
OFF VS DEF SEA HIGH (+51), ARI (-51).
TEAM EFFICIENCY ARI (- 45) VS SEA.
ARI - NO INJURIES
SEA - MLB WAGNER 34 TKLS (OUT) .
(WIN) > (SEA BY 10 ) 24-14
VIEW MATCHUP
http://www.happycapper.com/EveW7.html
BUT COVERS SPREAD - 6.5 IN SYSTEM MATCHUP BY 3+
OVER / UNDER - 3. OFF. DID NOT QUALIFY IN MATCH UP TOTAL.
BIG MISSMATCH PD OF SEA #2 VS 24TH PO OF ARI.
BOTH TEAMS GOOD RD.
SEA RO 3#. ARI RO 16TH.
OFF VS DEF SEA HIGH (+51), ARI (-51).
TEAM EFFICIENCY ARI (- 45) VS SEA.
ARI - NO INJURIES
SEA - MLB WAGNER 34 TKLS (OUT) .
(WIN) > (SEA BY 10 ) 24-14
VIEW MATCHUP
http://www.happycapper.com/EveW7.html
WEEK 7 - EARLY LINE - RICK PICK PARLAY
I have not done the System yet. That could change my mind on one or more of these early picks.
I looked over this weeks Lines and saw a lot of Close Games. Three Games stood out to me as possible Money Makers. One of the Games (SEA) is line sensitive
Last week SF and SEA played AZ and TEN. They both covered by 10. This week they play same teams and line is under 7 on both. CAUTION - SF is traveling Cross Country. Two Top 5s vs 2 Top 15 Teams. Little risky - but I think both are worth a TD better - if they play well.
BUF Top 20 also covered 8.5 vs CIN. I do not think MIA Top 15 is 9 points better. MIA has only covered (9) once this year. BUF has only given up (9) - once this year and has been playing well. MIA has also played well vs good teams. But - Tannehill has been sacked 24 times in 5 games. BUF Def is averaging 3.5 Sacks per game and has 10 INTs this year.
3 TEAM PARLAY
(Win) SEA - 6.5 OVER ARI
(Win) SF - 4.5 OVER TEN > ALTERNTIVE - SYSTEM PICK BAL +2 OVER PIT
(Win) BUF +9 OVER MIA
These are NOT System Picks. System will be up later this Morning.
Right or Wrong - Money where my mouth is. Just hope I don't have to pull my foot out of it.
I looked over this weeks Lines and saw a lot of Close Games. Three Games stood out to me as possible Money Makers. One of the Games (SEA) is line sensitive
Last week SF and SEA played AZ and TEN. They both covered by 10. This week they play same teams and line is under 7 on both. CAUTION - SF is traveling Cross Country. Two Top 5s vs 2 Top 15 Teams. Little risky - but I think both are worth a TD better - if they play well.
BUF Top 20 also covered 8.5 vs CIN. I do not think MIA Top 15 is 9 points better. MIA has only covered (9) once this year. BUF has only given up (9) - once this year and has been playing well. MIA has also played well vs good teams. But - Tannehill has been sacked 24 times in 5 games. BUF Def is averaging 3.5 Sacks per game and has 10 INTs this year.
3 TEAM PARLAY
(Win) SEA - 6.5 OVER ARI
(Win) SF - 4.5 OVER TEN > ALTERNTIVE - SYSTEM PICK BAL +2 OVER PIT
(Win) BUF +9 OVER MIA
These are NOT System Picks. System will be up later this Morning.
Right or Wrong - Money where my mouth is. Just hope I don't have to pull my foot out of it.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
WEEK 6 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013
System Season Total 27 - 11 71%
System Week 6 2-2 50%
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk62013.html
Although it was one of our worst weeks ever - there were some high points. The system was great last week exposing tendencies. DET stats vs CLE made them an easy Pick. This was also true - even for games that did not qualify as system picks. The weakness in the Redskins Defense for instance made DAL a clear favorite. We just have to pay special attention to the spreads this week. After all - its all about points. Get those right and you make money.
The system is still a blind robot. So, its hard when to know to call it off. Injuries are an easy call. But other intangibles come into play sometimes.
Here are two examples.
DEN - 27 vs JAC (System didnt know that was the highest spread in history.)
NYJ -2.5 vs PIT. (PIT desperately in need of a win at home.)
Works Both Ways:
KC -8.5 vs OAK (Could have called System OFF on that one with hot OAK team - glad I didn't)
Looking for 1 - 3 Team Parlay Winner this week. Let's do this!
Your Pregame input is always welcome.
Check the Head to Head Matchups each WED to help you make your calls.
http://www.happycapper.com/Head_To_Head_%20NFL_Matchups.html
Monday, October 14, 2013
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WEEK 6 ANALYSIS
Mike Lawrence - Right Again!
Mike swears by this rule. Home Team - Network Broadcast - Night Game.
A. Give 3 to Home Team
B. Don't Bet Cross Country Road Team
Colts Traveled Cross Country to San Diego.
Dropped 5 passes and reversed every positive stat trend they had going thus far this year.
Nuff Said.
P.S.
How do you turn a Bum QB into a Winner?
3 Step Drops. Rivers and Cutler - just to name a few. The bums crack under pressure. Quick releases take away the pass rush and the pressure off the QB. If you have a questionable QB - take the game out of his hands.
BTW - this does not take away the long pass. NFL receivers are fast. Next time you watch a game - count how many times they underthrow the receivers. A 3 step drop takes around 3 seconds. Then add travel time for the long ball. Most WRs can get 40 yds down field in a little over 4 seconds. A 5 step can be very effective too. Only takes a second longer.
7 steps - you better have a good Offensive Line. I do not know who came up with the idea that you need to give receivers time to get open? It wasn't Bill Walsh - father of the modern pass game. Montanas' first look was to the WR - then he came back to a TE crossing route or drop off to the running back. Rice made a living turning short slant routes into TDs,
Throw to position. Once the WR is behind the CB, along the sideline, throw to the opposite shoulder of the coverage. You will notice - most long completions are executed this way. Peyton manning and Tom Brady live off it.
QB Rushing. Not every team can count on their Offensive Line to hold the rush for more than 3 seconds. Russell Wilson in SEA learned the hard way. Don't ad lib in the Backfield. When forced - it is a great talent. Romo lives off it and his record shows it - lotta 4th QTR losses. Wilson has learned to Throw quickly or take off running North to South. They can't stop him now. Terrell Pryor made the mistake of improvising behind the line of scrimmage this week in KC. He is a super talented passer and runner. If he learns to do One or the Other - quickly - he will succeed.
- Rick Jansen
Mike swears by this rule. Home Team - Network Broadcast - Night Game.
A. Give 3 to Home Team
B. Don't Bet Cross Country Road Team
Colts Traveled Cross Country to San Diego.
Dropped 5 passes and reversed every positive stat trend they had going thus far this year.
Nuff Said.
P.S.
How do you turn a Bum QB into a Winner?
3 Step Drops. Rivers and Cutler - just to name a few. The bums crack under pressure. Quick releases take away the pass rush and the pressure off the QB. If you have a questionable QB - take the game out of his hands.
BTW - this does not take away the long pass. NFL receivers are fast. Next time you watch a game - count how many times they underthrow the receivers. A 3 step drop takes around 3 seconds. Then add travel time for the long ball. Most WRs can get 40 yds down field in a little over 4 seconds. A 5 step can be very effective too. Only takes a second longer.
7 steps - you better have a good Offensive Line. I do not know who came up with the idea that you need to give receivers time to get open? It wasn't Bill Walsh - father of the modern pass game. Montanas' first look was to the WR - then he came back to a TE crossing route or drop off to the running back. Rice made a living turning short slant routes into TDs,
Throw to position. Once the WR is behind the CB, along the sideline, throw to the opposite shoulder of the coverage. You will notice - most long completions are executed this way. Peyton manning and Tom Brady live off it.
QB Rushing. Not every team can count on their Offensive Line to hold the rush for more than 3 seconds. Russell Wilson in SEA learned the hard way. Don't ad lib in the Backfield. When forced - it is a great talent. Romo lives off it and his record shows it - lotta 4th QTR losses. Wilson has learned to Throw quickly or take off running North to South. They can't stop him now. Terrell Pryor made the mistake of improvising behind the line of scrimmage this week in KC. He is a super talented passer and runner. If he learns to do One or the Other - quickly - he will succeed.
- Rick Jansen
TOP NFL TEAMS FAIL TO COVER WEEK 6.
THIN SPREADS EQUAL THIN PROFITS WEEK 6
The System is holding strong at 27-11 71%. Last Years Top Handicappers finished at around 64%. We went 80% and I want to get back to that. By this time last year - there were 3 or 4 teams you knew would cover - regardless of the spread. This year - After 6 weeks, we are still trying to separate contenders from pretenders. The teams we know are good - still may not cover. What was considered a High spread on solid Favorites had gone from (10) last year to high double digits this year.
Example:
GB (by -1)
BAL (by 1)
SEA (Spread at 13.5) Did Not Cover
SF (by 1)
DEN (Spread at 27.5) Did Not Cover
NE (by 0.5)
NO (by -0.5)
SO - WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT?
Use the Spread to Beat the Oddsmakers. Make Parody Your Friend.
If the teams are so evenly matched - only select teams in Specific Matchups deserve a spread of Over 7.
Teams Giving More than (7)
Week 6: 2 - 5
Week 5: 1 - 2
The System is holding strong at 27-11 71%. Last Years Top Handicappers finished at around 64%. We went 80% and I want to get back to that. By this time last year - there were 3 or 4 teams you knew would cover - regardless of the spread. This year - After 6 weeks, we are still trying to separate contenders from pretenders. The teams we know are good - still may not cover. What was considered a High spread on solid Favorites had gone from (10) last year to high double digits this year.
Example:
GB (by -1)
BAL (by 1)
SEA (Spread at 13.5) Did Not Cover
SF (by 1)
DEN (Spread at 27.5) Did Not Cover
NE (by 0.5)
NO (by -0.5)
SO - WHAT DO WE DO ABOUT IT?
Use the Spread to Beat the Oddsmakers. Make Parody Your Friend.
If the teams are so evenly matched - only select teams in Specific Matchups deserve a spread of Over 7.
Teams Giving More than (7)
Week 6: 2 - 5
Week 5: 1 - 2
Friday, October 11, 2013
WEEK 6 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013
ALL GAMES AND MATCHUPS ARE LIVE NOW
I improved the Quick View - by adding a link to the individual Matchups on the left.
Just click on TH for the Thursday Night Game. M for all Morning Games, A for the Afternoon Games, etc.
See all Picks and Games Below:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK6NFLGAMES.html
System Picks
KC -9 OVER OAK
DET -2.5 OVER CLE
JETS -2.5 OVER PIT (LINE CHANGED FROM PIT -2.5)
DEN -27 OVER JAC
RICK TOP PICKS
DET -2.5 OVER CLE
HOU - 7.5 OVER STL
JETS -2.5 OVER PIT
DOG WILD
OAK +9 OVER KC
TB + 1 OVER PHI
TB UNDER
PROHIBITIVE FAVORITES
BUF +7.5
JAC + 27
NE / NO UNDER
MONDAY NIGHT
IND -1.5 OVER SD
UNDER
I improved the Quick View - by adding a link to the individual Matchups on the left.
Just click on TH for the Thursday Night Game. M for all Morning Games, A for the Afternoon Games, etc.
See all Picks and Games Below:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK6NFLGAMES.html
System Picks
KC -9 OVER OAK
DET -2.5 OVER CLE
JETS -2.5 OVER PIT (LINE CHANGED FROM PIT -2.5)
DEN -27 OVER JAC
RICK TOP PICKS
DET -2.5 OVER CLE
HOU - 7.5 OVER STL
JETS -2.5 OVER PIT
DOG WILD
OAK +9 OVER KC
TB + 1 OVER PHI
TB UNDER
PROHIBITIVE FAVORITES
BUF +7.5
JAC + 27
NE / NO UNDER
MONDAY NIGHT
IND -1.5 OVER SD
UNDER
Thursday, October 10, 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBAL WEEK 6 SUMMARY
Pregame Prediction:
When SF offense came back - so did their defense. This is not the 49ers. But, Defenses do get worn out when the offense goes 3 and Out the whole game. I'll predict that the weak Def Line of CHI (few sacks or pics) allows NYG to establish a run game and gives Manning time in the pocket to throw to Cruz. What used to be a decent Defense for NYG - would then be pissed off and rested - keeping the total under (47). Cutler (I call him Baby Huey) is due to be Cutler, get sacked and throw some picks. It's in his nature.
FIRST HALF
It all played out perfectly, with one exception. Eli Manning threw 2 picks in the first 5 minutes.
The weak Def Line of Chi opened up the run game for Jacobs who really stepped up.
After the first Pic, the run opened up right away, Then after a first down, they line up in shotgun. What are you doing? I thought. Then bam! Pic 6!
The defense stepped up big too., Holding Chicago to no points inside the 20. But 2 - three and outs left the defense winded again and enabled Bears to rack up 17 more points.
Manning is the problem in New York. Not the Offensive line. Even while he settled in to score 2 touchdowns - he threw late to his receivers. It was like slow motion - watching them stand there waiting for the ball.
How do I say this politely. You can see it in his face. Eli is not his brother. The contrast between the verbally prolific and calculating Peyton and his younger sibling is visibly obvious,
The Giants need a QB. Regardless of what the 2nd half brings. After the 2 INTs - there was no one to replace him. Painter is a pathetic career failure. The only other back up is a rookie with very few, if any - first team reps.
The Giants are deep in talent and shallow in leadership. Cruz, Nicks, Jacobs, Wilson, Pierre Paul, just to name a few. As much as I hate Caughlin, he did a good job of predicting a comeback and firing up the team. Any top 5 QB in the league would have this team on the way to the playoffs.
Unless they pull this one out - they may be done. You can already see a few players jogging through the plays. Some of them have already packed it in and are calling it a season.
Big second half for the Giants. Even though Manning blew my under - I'm very interested to see if this will end as a swan song or Anthem.
2ND HALF
High and behind. What most of the Giants players and they're fans will be before they go to sleep tonight.
High and behind also describes Eli Mannings last throw of the game.
Near the end of a game winning drive in Chicago territory - Manning made another mental error. When your 6'5 inch Tight End has to stop his crossing route and jumps as high as he can - and still can't reach the ball - It's your fault Eli. In spite of what the kiss ass announcer says.
Caughlin said at halftime they would blitz more to pressure Cutler. Really? That didn't occur to you in the first half? I thought about it on Monday. Member when you did it before and sacked him 8 times? Well, it worked! Kept Chicago out of the end zone the entire second half. Just a little late genius.
Props to Brandon Jacobs. He deserved a win tonight. Earned one, along with the majority of the Giants players. Brandon Marshall also deserved the victory.
At least I called the Giants to cover. They did that. Without the pic 6 by Manning - I hit the Moneyline and the Under too. 21-20 (42)
Next time I call a moneyline - just take the points.
(Update) The NFL has just removed Marijuana from the banned substance list. The new ruling will only apply to players in the New York area and Matt Schuab.
- Rick Jansen
When SF offense came back - so did their defense. This is not the 49ers. But, Defenses do get worn out when the offense goes 3 and Out the whole game. I'll predict that the weak Def Line of CHI (few sacks or pics) allows NYG to establish a run game and gives Manning time in the pocket to throw to Cruz. What used to be a decent Defense for NYG - would then be pissed off and rested - keeping the total under (47). Cutler (I call him Baby Huey) is due to be Cutler, get sacked and throw some picks. It's in his nature.
FIRST HALF
It all played out perfectly, with one exception. Eli Manning threw 2 picks in the first 5 minutes.
The weak Def Line of Chi opened up the run game for Jacobs who really stepped up.
After the first Pic, the run opened up right away, Then after a first down, they line up in shotgun. What are you doing? I thought. Then bam! Pic 6!
The defense stepped up big too., Holding Chicago to no points inside the 20. But 2 - three and outs left the defense winded again and enabled Bears to rack up 17 more points.
Manning is the problem in New York. Not the Offensive line. Even while he settled in to score 2 touchdowns - he threw late to his receivers. It was like slow motion - watching them stand there waiting for the ball.
How do I say this politely. You can see it in his face. Eli is not his brother. The contrast between the verbally prolific and calculating Peyton and his younger sibling is visibly obvious,
The Giants need a QB. Regardless of what the 2nd half brings. After the 2 INTs - there was no one to replace him. Painter is a pathetic career failure. The only other back up is a rookie with very few, if any - first team reps.
The Giants are deep in talent and shallow in leadership. Cruz, Nicks, Jacobs, Wilson, Pierre Paul, just to name a few. As much as I hate Caughlin, he did a good job of predicting a comeback and firing up the team. Any top 5 QB in the league would have this team on the way to the playoffs.
Unless they pull this one out - they may be done. You can already see a few players jogging through the plays. Some of them have already packed it in and are calling it a season.
Big second half for the Giants. Even though Manning blew my under - I'm very interested to see if this will end as a swan song or Anthem.
2ND HALF
High and behind. What most of the Giants players and they're fans will be before they go to sleep tonight.
High and behind also describes Eli Mannings last throw of the game.
Near the end of a game winning drive in Chicago territory - Manning made another mental error. When your 6'5 inch Tight End has to stop his crossing route and jumps as high as he can - and still can't reach the ball - It's your fault Eli. In spite of what the kiss ass announcer says.
Caughlin said at halftime they would blitz more to pressure Cutler. Really? That didn't occur to you in the first half? I thought about it on Monday. Member when you did it before and sacked him 8 times? Well, it worked! Kept Chicago out of the end zone the entire second half. Just a little late genius.
Props to Brandon Jacobs. He deserved a win tonight. Earned one, along with the majority of the Giants players. Brandon Marshall also deserved the victory.
At least I called the Giants to cover. They did that. Without the pic 6 by Manning - I hit the Moneyline and the Under too. 21-20 (42)
Next time I call a moneyline - just take the points.
(Update) The NFL has just removed Marijuana from the banned substance list. The new ruling will only apply to players in the New York area and Matt Schuab.
- Rick Jansen
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 6 2013
SYSTEM PICK - CHI. (OFF) DUE TO CHI INJURIES.
CHI WON MATCHUP BIG - (77) 32 - 16 (update - sorry broken formula)
SYSTEM GAVE US SOME GOOD INFO
(CHI)
Caution on this one. NYG is last in almost every category. That could change.
Based strictly on stats - CHI top 10 Off Line and Pass Off should blow Giants off the field. Jeffery (limited) has 429 yds receiving, Bennett with 3 TDS (Questionable), Forte 375 Rushing. Defensively Briggs, Pea and Tillman all Questionable.
CHI did not cover the Spread in the Matchup.
(NYG)
On the Giants side - Victor Cruz has close to 500 yds and 4 TDs.
CHI does have a weak Pass Def - with very few Sacks or INTs.
CHI has played a weak schedule (24th) hardest - which can skew the stats.
RB Wilson who I like a lot is Out. This makes my pick a little scary as Jacobs will have to step up.
If the Giants lose another game - the league may have to send in trauma counselors.
SAFE BET IS TO STAY (OFF) THIS ONE.
GOING OUT ON A LIMB!
IF YOU WANNA HAVE SOME CHEAP FUN?
NYG MONEYINE and the UNDER. $40 TO PAY $273
When SF offense came back - so did their defense. This is not the 49ers. But, Defenses do get worn out when the offense goes 3 and Out the whole game. I'll predict that the weak Def Line of CHI (few sacks or pics) allows NYG to establish a run game and gives Manning time in the pocket to throw to Cruz. What used to be a decent Defense for NYG - would then be pissed off and rested - keeping the total under (47). Cutler (I call him Baby Huey) is due to be Cutler, get sacked and throw some picks. It's in his nature.
Bear in mind - I went like 2- 5 last week. Have fun!
If you wanna judge for yourself - Here's the Head to Head Matchup:
http://www.happycapper.com/Wk6ThuNight-2013.html
Tips on How to Read the Matchups
http://www.happycapper.com/MATCHUPS_LEGEND.html
For those of you crazy enough to give a sh*t .
CHI WON MATCHUP BIG - (77) 32 - 16 (update - sorry broken formula)
SYSTEM GAVE US SOME GOOD INFO
(CHI)
Caution on this one. NYG is last in almost every category. That could change.
Based strictly on stats - CHI top 10 Off Line and Pass Off should blow Giants off the field. Jeffery (limited) has 429 yds receiving, Bennett with 3 TDS (Questionable), Forte 375 Rushing. Defensively Briggs, Pea and Tillman all Questionable.
CHI did not cover the Spread in the Matchup.
(NYG)
On the Giants side - Victor Cruz has close to 500 yds and 4 TDs.
CHI does have a weak Pass Def - with very few Sacks or INTs.
CHI has played a weak schedule (24th) hardest - which can skew the stats.
RB Wilson who I like a lot is Out. This makes my pick a little scary as Jacobs will have to step up.
If the Giants lose another game - the league may have to send in trauma counselors.
SAFE BET IS TO STAY (OFF) THIS ONE.
GOING OUT ON A LIMB!
IF YOU WANNA HAVE SOME CHEAP FUN?
NYG MONEYINE and the UNDER. $40 TO PAY $273
When SF offense came back - so did their defense. This is not the 49ers. But, Defenses do get worn out when the offense goes 3 and Out the whole game. I'll predict that the weak Def Line of CHI (few sacks or pics) allows NYG to establish a run game and gives Manning time in the pocket to throw to Cruz. What used to be a decent Defense for NYG - would then be pissed off and rested - keeping the total under (47). Cutler (I call him Baby Huey) is due to be Cutler, get sacked and throw some picks. It's in his nature.
Bear in mind - I went like 2- 5 last week. Have fun!
If you wanna judge for yourself - Here's the Head to Head Matchup:
http://www.happycapper.com/Wk6ThuNight-2013.html
Tips on How to Read the Matchups
http://www.happycapper.com/MATCHUPS_LEGEND.html
For those of you crazy enough to give a sh*t .
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