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Thursday, October 3, 2013
WHO IS THE NUMBER ONE TEAM IN THE NFL?
Strength of Schedule ( OP )
One factor to consider when determining which teams are contenders or pretenders is strength of schedule or the Rank of the Opponents each team has played. It is also a stat that most stat sites don't keep. It has to be painstakingly updated every week.
Rank (R)
Each week I calculate and update about 30 Main Stat categories for each team. Rush Offense, Rush Defense etc. I do not just pull the Ranks from websites. I pull the Data and use a unique formula to rank each category. Offensive and Defensive Line stats for instance - are two of the most important. We have a formula for that.
Is Rank Enough?
So, we know who ranks highest overall in the Stat Categories. Is that enough?
What if a team played 4 Really Weak Teams? They have a High Stat Rank. Does that mean they are Contenders?
Let's look at two examples:
I like KC and they seem to be a contender.
KC - (R) 13TH (OP) 23RD (ADJ) 22ND.
Does this mean KC is not a contender - NO!
It does mean - you should look at the (OP) rank of the next teams they play and wait and see how they do verses a team with a High (R) and Low (OP). Then we will know. Use caution in the meantime.
Here's an Eye Opener:
JAC - (R) 32ND (OP) 2ND (ADJ) 19TH.
Does this mean JAC is a good team? NO! Does it mean they might not be the worst team in the league? YES! It also means they might upset a pretender with a good rank and few wins.
This week they play STL - A team I happen to like. Bradford has done amazing with no Off Line or Rush Off. That is not a recipe for long term success.
STL - (R) 24th (OP) 27th (ADJ) 29TH.
Who knows - JAC may just cover +12 vs STL this week or even upset them.
Don't bet the farm on JAC this week. Just saying.
Just One Factor.
(OP) should not be the sole factor used in calling a game. A team can beat 4 weak teams and then beat 4 good teams too. The point is to include (OP) or Opponent Rank when capping games.
Here are the Adjusted Ranks for all 32 Teams:
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