Monday, October 21, 2013

OVER UNDER WEEK 7 NFL MONDAY NIGHT

HERE ARE THE STATS - YOU MAKE THE CALL:

PASS OFF BAD (Under)
PASS DEF - BAD (Over) ________PUSH
OFF LINES - BAD (Under)
DEF LINES - BAD(Over)________PUSH
FPOS - BAD (Under) 
TEAM EFF - AVG (Push)
RED ZONE OFF - GOOD - AVG 60% (Over) 
3RD DOWN % - GOOD (Over)
PUNTS / PEN -  AVG (Push)
PROJ YARDS PER TEAM - AVG (Push)
PROJ 1ST DOWNS - AVG (Push)
PROJECTED TDS PER GAME - GOOD (Over)

BOOK TOTAL - 48  PROJECTED TOTAL 49  MIN 29- 20 (Over) 

Based on what I see - The Pass Off and Off Lines (Unders) seems to cancel each other out as the Pass Def and Def Lines (Overs) are Bad too. That Leaves (1 Under) - Fpos, 
3 (Overs) and  3 (Pushes). Nothing Concrete!  But - Stats lean towards the (Over) (48).

The Over Under Stats may all be Non Sense - just my Humble attempt at trying to make an educated Guess.  If you think these teams will continue their stumbling, bumbling ways - take the (Under) You make the Call.

PICKING A WINNER

MIN
Both teams stats are equally bad.  The only edge in this game goes to MIN on a few Stat Categories - Rush Offense and Def Liine 10th and 15th vs NYG Rush Def and Def Line 24th and 32nd. This could set the stage for a big night for Peterson - playing for his dead son - which no one seems to have been overlooked with all the talk ogf Giants needing a win.  Also, Freeman averaged few (1.6) sacks per game in (2012). This could allow Jerome Simpson to have a big night. Offensive Field Position goes to MIN as well.

NYG 
On the other hand - the MIN Pass Def is (29th) vs Cruz and NIcks - dangerous targets. 

Obviously the intangible here is that Giants are at Home and desperately in need of a win. Just like Steelers last week - that motivation could make the stats worthless.

This game is worth watching. if only to see which scenario plays out.

The line has gone to NYG - 3.5.  So, with close losses being the trend with the Giants - when they are even in the game - If the Giants Win - it could be by a field goal - I love the .5 Hook and MIN to cover. 

Taking ( MIN + 3.5 and the Over )



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