Post Game
REALLY?
I called CLE +1.5 Over 35.5
27-27 42 seconds left in the 4th Quarter - Browns Pick Schaub or the 2nd time ( I called that too). CLE Inside the BAL 40. A pass play takes 6 seconds - So they had time for 6 plays before they had to kick a FG. With 2 times outs left - They let 20 seconds run off the clock and slide in bounds. Down to 8 seconds and 1 time out - Run to hash and used last time out. No time left but for a FG. A 50 yd FG is lower trajectory than a 30 yarder - Blocked - Run back for Ravens TD.
What do you have to do to call a winner in the NFL these days?
I think it i requires Voodoo and help from the Illuminati. LOL
@CLE -4.5 vs BAL (41.5)
See Match Up notes below. There are so many potential scenarios for this game. Stats love Ravens - But with Schaub at QB and Forsett gone - you cant really go by that. Browns could get a ton of 3 and out and turnovers out of Schaub and run away with this one at home. As much as I would love to add a win and a few bucks to the bank - I'm not gonna just throw bank money at a Dicey pick.
(OFF)
My Personal Pick - Off the Record
Raven win Pass Offense - But with Schaub at QB and Weak BAL Red Zone Defense ...
(This Ones for You Reid if it hits)
6 Point Teaser
CLE +1.5 OVER 35.5
HEAD TO HEAD
X
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Monday, November 30, 2015
Sunday, November 29, 2015
NFL PICKS WEEK 12 RECAP
I'll post a Match for Tomorrow Night in the Morning.
Keep in Mind Schaub in for Flacco. Makes Browns look good they will need to win Match Up to become a Bet. I'll Post by Noon Tomorrow.
We have never finishes less than 60% in our 5 yr history. I realized today it would not take much to get to 60% this yr. If our picks hit this weekend - we would at 59% with a $200 Gain for the year. One hell of a ride this week. It was Payday or Malay. Turned out to be more of a Malay. But - we have at least 30 or 40 more picks left in the season - Plenty of time to get there.
Just so you know - I Bet my own money on every pick I posted. I was not trying to go overboard this week - I believed in every pick we made (See Game Notes). Luck played a part in every game - each could have easily been a win for us. I do think luck is progressive and we are due. We did learn a lot and confirm several things moving forward this week (See Summary Below)
Game Notes:
PHI +8.5
System Pick won Match up and we teased - But bet on a Team in Disarray - My Bad.
CAR PK @DAL
Solid Call and Good Double Down when same game was Killed on Teaser Parlay
STL +9 @ CIN
Good Rams defense getting 9 made sense - But Weak Rams Offense vs Hot Bengals Offense made it a Dicey call on my part.
TB + 3 @IND
Bucs dominated Match Up and game 1st half - but Trending Colts team - Dicey call on my part.
NYG - WAS OVER (47)
Solid Over Statistically - Lesson Learned - No More Over or Unders
BUF +6 @ KC
Was a Great Call - Refs Gave the Game to KC - Rex to Dumb to Challenge - Twice.
MIN+1 @ ATL
Was a Great Call - Made Sense and Won
ARI -9.5 @SF
System tells me not to bet a team that does not win Red Zone - Cards didn't and lost.
NE -2.5 @ DEN
Good Call - Pats Dominated - Refs Gave the Game to Broncos - Bad - Game changing Calls on them all night. Denver played week 2nd half - But without the bad calls - Pats win and cover easy.
Summary
Losing only has value if you learn from it - we did. Sharpened our game going into the rest of the season. Here's what we learned for certain:
1. No Parlays - Teasers or otherwise.
2. No Over / Unders
3. Bad Red Zone Offense - No Bet - OK to Give - just make sure scoring stats are there.
4. If a Bet feels Dicey - Call Off - Every Win and Loss is Valuable.
I Promised we will get to 60% and make a Profit - Nothing has Changed.
Gotta Shake it off, Put it Behind Us and Rest up for Next Week
x
Keep in Mind Schaub in for Flacco. Makes Browns look good they will need to win Match Up to become a Bet. I'll Post by Noon Tomorrow.
We have never finishes less than 60% in our 5 yr history. I realized today it would not take much to get to 60% this yr. If our picks hit this weekend - we would at 59% with a $200 Gain for the year. One hell of a ride this week. It was Payday or Malay. Turned out to be more of a Malay. But - we have at least 30 or 40 more picks left in the season - Plenty of time to get there.
Just so you know - I Bet my own money on every pick I posted. I was not trying to go overboard this week - I believed in every pick we made (See Game Notes). Luck played a part in every game - each could have easily been a win for us. I do think luck is progressive and we are due. We did learn a lot and confirm several things moving forward this week (See Summary Below)
Game Notes:
PHI +8.5
System Pick won Match up and we teased - But bet on a Team in Disarray - My Bad.
CAR PK @DAL
Solid Call and Good Double Down when same game was Killed on Teaser Parlay
STL +9 @ CIN
Good Rams defense getting 9 made sense - But Weak Rams Offense vs Hot Bengals Offense made it a Dicey call on my part.
TB + 3 @IND
Bucs dominated Match Up and game 1st half - but Trending Colts team - Dicey call on my part.
NYG - WAS OVER (47)
Solid Over Statistically - Lesson Learned - No More Over or Unders
BUF +6 @ KC
Was a Great Call - Refs Gave the Game to KC - Rex to Dumb to Challenge - Twice.
MIN+1 @ ATL
Was a Great Call - Made Sense and Won
ARI -9.5 @SF
System tells me not to bet a team that does not win Red Zone - Cards didn't and lost.
NE -2.5 @ DEN
Good Call - Pats Dominated - Refs Gave the Game to Broncos - Bad - Game changing Calls on them all night. Denver played week 2nd half - But without the bad calls - Pats win and cover easy.
Summary
Losing only has value if you learn from it - we did. Sharpened our game going into the rest of the season. Here's what we learned for certain:
1. No Parlays - Teasers or otherwise.
2. No Over / Unders
3. Bad Red Zone Offense - No Bet - OK to Give - just make sure scoring stats are there.
4. If a Bet feels Dicey - Call Off - Every Win and Loss is Valuable.
I Promised we will get to 60% and make a Profit - Nothing has Changed.
Gotta Shake it off, Put it Behind Us and Rest up for Next Week
x
Saturday, November 28, 2015
NFL PICKS WEEK 12 WEEKEND
I could place it safe and pack it in after the big Panthers win. However, there are games that just make sense to me.
A couple teams I like STL and BUF are getting 9 and 6.
I like 2 bad defenses with great pass offenses - the Giants and Redskins to run it up and go over 47
TB scares me but is getting 3 and wins the match up big vs Colts - Hopefully the system is right, or we lose by a FG and push.
System predicts 3 and out by Denver and We got the Pats by less than FG - Belichick has made a living winning without his start players - pets hope than continues.
I just added MIN+1 @ ATL - Freeman out for Falcons who have lost to 3 much weaker teams 3 weeks in a row. Vikings have been money all yr long vs good defenses.
I said I was looking for domination or to take points. The line dropped to ARI -9.5 (Wynn) Cardinals should Dominate SF. SEA bet SF 29-13 - Cards have an strong defense too and better offense. ARI ran up 34 vs #4 Ranked CIN Defense, SF very weak defense. RB Hyde still out for SF - look for 3 and outs and Cards to Route.
STL +9 @ CIN
TB + 3 @IND
NYG - WAS OVER (47)
BUF +6 @ KC
NE -2.5 @ DEN
MIN+1 @ ATL
ARI -9.5 @SF (Late addition - Line Dropped "Wynn")
HEAD TO HEAD
(Left Click, Right Click- Left Click - View Image - Magnify)
BANK RECEIPT
GAMES WE'RE OFF AND WHY
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
NFL PICKS WEEK 12 THURSDAY NIGHT
Follow us on Twitter
Live Game Posts
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
FINAL POSTGAME THURSDAY
Learned more this year than in the last 5. As you can see (below) We Aint Playin!
We are not here to get paid win or lose. We are here to make you money. Working Overtime on a Holiday. That may be a "Virtual" Bank - but that represents real money you re really betting - based on my picks - I take that real seriously. We will make a profit and go 60% or better this year. Bring on the Weekend!
____________________________
Well I can sit around whining or do my job and clean up this mess. Let's see if we can get our money back and never repeat this mistake again. No Parlays, Teaser or any other kind - I promise.
BET ADDED!
CAR PK @DAL
$200
You may have noticed I do not cap every game anymore. That's the only time my gut comes into play. We have stayed off a lot of trap games this year. If I do not like either team - I skip the game and move on to other games - spend more time evaluating final picks. This is why I hate Thursdays. Once I cap all the games - the Eagles would not have made the cut. System didn't know Lions trending and Eagles in decline. I Should have went with my initial decision to stay off this one. Trying to give you guys some picks for the Holiday games.
No more Thursday parlays - No more Parlays or Teaser Parlays - Period! I'm betting the Panthers roll and we make nothing because we teased them with the Eagles. We didn't even get a final on starting QB for PHI pregame. Sportsbooks must love Thursdays. 16 games, One good pick today - Panthers - Not Two. Lions -10 Turnovers, we need like 4. "Whah huh Whah" Sorry for whining guys. 1 Quarter left, +9, Need a miracle. Go Sanchez! Wow did that just come out of my mouth? Has it come to that? I think I'm channeling Fred Sanford. "I'm comin Ester!
Screw Sanchez! Put in Thad Lewis - whys didn't they start him? He's way better than Sanchez!
GB vs CHI does not qualify as a pick for either team. Bears should cover 8.5 but if Packers are back they won't - 2 horrible losses and 1 win - the verdict is still out on GB and they do not qualify as a system pick or project to cover. GB could win 31-10 so teasing CHI to 15 does not make sense either - OFF that game.
FINAL PICKS THURSDAY
2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER
PHI + 8.5 @DET
CAR +7.5 @DAL
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE, MAGNIFY)
________________________
WE NORMALLY POST BY NOON THURSDAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT - THERE ARE 3 GAMES TOMORROW. I AM NOT GONNA RUSH AND POST HALF ASS PICKS.
I WILL HAVE FULL STATS AND PICKS FOR ALL 3 GAMES BY 6AM (PST) TOMORROW MORNING.
LOADING NOW UP IN 5 MINUTES!!
ALL DONE JUST PULING THE TRIGGER ON THE ACTUAL BETS TODAY - DON'T WANNA RUSH JUST A COUPLE MINUTES MORE
X
Live Game Posts
https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
FINAL POSTGAME THURSDAY
Learned more this year than in the last 5. As you can see (below) We Aint Playin!
We are not here to get paid win or lose. We are here to make you money. Working Overtime on a Holiday. That may be a "Virtual" Bank - but that represents real money you re really betting - based on my picks - I take that real seriously. We will make a profit and go 60% or better this year. Bring on the Weekend!
____________________________
Well I can sit around whining or do my job and clean up this mess. Let's see if we can get our money back and never repeat this mistake again. No Parlays, Teaser or any other kind - I promise.
BET ADDED!
CAR PK @DAL
$200
Go Panthers!
BANK RECEIPT
PostGame_______________
DET 38-7 3rd QuarterYou may have noticed I do not cap every game anymore. That's the only time my gut comes into play. We have stayed off a lot of trap games this year. If I do not like either team - I skip the game and move on to other games - spend more time evaluating final picks. This is why I hate Thursdays. Once I cap all the games - the Eagles would not have made the cut. System didn't know Lions trending and Eagles in decline. I Should have went with my initial decision to stay off this one. Trying to give you guys some picks for the Holiday games.
No more Thursday parlays - No more Parlays or Teaser Parlays - Period! I'm betting the Panthers roll and we make nothing because we teased them with the Eagles. We didn't even get a final on starting QB for PHI pregame. Sportsbooks must love Thursdays. 16 games, One good pick today - Panthers - Not Two. Lions -10 Turnovers, we need like 4. "Whah huh Whah" Sorry for whining guys. 1 Quarter left, +9, Need a miracle. Go Sanchez! Wow did that just come out of my mouth? Has it come to that? I think I'm channeling Fred Sanford. "I'm comin Ester!
Screw Sanchez! Put in Thad Lewis - whys didn't they start him? He's way better than Sanchez!
PreGame________________
I Love the Panthers as Dogs. The System Calls CAR and PHI. I have No confidence in the Eagles but do not want to ignore that System Pick. So, after swearing off Parlays - Teasing Both games actually seems like the Prudent move. The clincher for me with PHI is the #1 Off Line and #2 Rush Off of PHI and Murray getting plenty of carries with RB Ryan Mathews out - VS the 20th ranked Rush Def of DET.GB vs CHI does not qualify as a pick for either team. Bears should cover 8.5 but if Packers are back they won't - 2 horrible losses and 1 win - the verdict is still out on GB and they do not qualify as a system pick or project to cover. GB could win 31-10 so teasing CHI to 15 does not make sense either - OFF that game.
FINAL PICKS THURSDAY
2 TEAM 6 POINT TEASER
PHI + 8.5 @DET
CAR +7.5 @DAL
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK, VIEW IMAGE, MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
________________________
WE NORMALLY POST BY NOON THURSDAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT - THERE ARE 3 GAMES TOMORROW. I AM NOT GONNA RUSH AND POST HALF ASS PICKS.
I WILL HAVE FULL STATS AND PICKS FOR ALL 3 GAMES BY 6AM (PST) TOMORROW MORNING.
LOADING NOW UP IN 5 MINUTES!!
ALL DONE JUST PULING THE TRIGGER ON THE ACTUAL BETS TODAY - DON'T WANNA RUSH JUST A COUPLE MINUTES MORE
X
NFL PICKS WEEK 11 RECAP
Here's a little Golf cranberry sauce to go with your football. These start early morning tomorrow.- get them in early afternoon today:
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (40-1) @William Hill
ALFRED DUNHILL
LUCAS BJERREGAARD (20-1) @Westgate
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/
3-1 75% WEEK 11
Only a Missed extra point kept us for 4-0. After going 4-0 in week 9, I was unable to cap the games in week 10 - result 1-2. That will never happen - once I hire people and start charging. We bounced right back this week. We are trending in the right direction - with about 9 weeks left - including the playoffs - Our playoff record is near perfect.
SHOPPING LINES
I usually just post the line from William Hill for each game. When I was capping the Buffalo game I noticed BUF +7.5 at Stations casino - good thing - most lines were +7 - turned a push into a win. I will post the house each line is from next year too - as part of the service - so you get the best bang for your buck
STRATEGY WORKING
I mentioned last week I was looking for absolute domination or to take points. That worked again this week.
ERROR CORRECTED
We were 1 -1 in week 7. I entered us as 1-4 that week - that has been updated now.
OUR WIN / LOSS RECORD IS IN THE BLACK
My buddy at the sports book reminded me the magic number is 52.8 that you have to achieve in order to make money. We are currently at 52.9.
COMPARE OUR RECORD TO THE PROS
I am not celebrating - we can and will do so much better than this. However, if you look at the records of the best pros in the world this year - we are in the top 5 - a little more than half way through our worst year ever. Keep in mind - they all charge a lot more than $40 a month for unlimited picks- like we will. See for Yourself:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/
MONEY MANAGEMENT AND BANK
Kind of nice that we had a year to work out the bugs "before" we start charging. The bank is down a little - however, if we bet 20% of bank each week this year - single straight bets - as originally planned - the bank would also be in the black. That was nothing more than me trying to re-invent the wheel as far as money management. I'm over that now.
PARLAYS AND TEASERS
Parlays are the only reason the bank is down at all. Like I said, we worked out the bugs. Teasers can be great - but you must bet a minimum of 2 legs - so again, these are parlays. For the most part - we need to stick to the pro strategy of single straight bets from here on out.
That doesn't prevent you from using our picks as teasers - which has payed off nicely so far for Reid.
ON TO WEEK 12
Not looking to change anything this week. 3 games on Thursday - lotta work to do early - so look for my picks by about 5pm tonight. Travel safe.
BANK STATEMENT
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (40-1) @William Hill
ALFRED DUNHILL
LUCAS BJERREGAARD (20-1) @Westgate
http://golfpicks.blogspot.com/
3-1 75% WEEK 11
Only a Missed extra point kept us for 4-0. After going 4-0 in week 9, I was unable to cap the games in week 10 - result 1-2. That will never happen - once I hire people and start charging. We bounced right back this week. We are trending in the right direction - with about 9 weeks left - including the playoffs - Our playoff record is near perfect.
SHOPPING LINES
I usually just post the line from William Hill for each game. When I was capping the Buffalo game I noticed BUF +7.5 at Stations casino - good thing - most lines were +7 - turned a push into a win. I will post the house each line is from next year too - as part of the service - so you get the best bang for your buck
STRATEGY WORKING
I mentioned last week I was looking for absolute domination or to take points. That worked again this week.
ERROR CORRECTED
We were 1 -1 in week 7. I entered us as 1-4 that week - that has been updated now.
OUR WIN / LOSS RECORD IS IN THE BLACK
My buddy at the sports book reminded me the magic number is 52.8 that you have to achieve in order to make money. We are currently at 52.9.
COMPARE OUR RECORD TO THE PROS
I am not celebrating - we can and will do so much better than this. However, if you look at the records of the best pros in the world this year - we are in the top 5 - a little more than half way through our worst year ever. Keep in mind - they all charge a lot more than $40 a month for unlimited picks- like we will. See for Yourself:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/picks/records/
MONEY MANAGEMENT AND BANK
Kind of nice that we had a year to work out the bugs "before" we start charging. The bank is down a little - however, if we bet 20% of bank each week this year - single straight bets - as originally planned - the bank would also be in the black. That was nothing more than me trying to re-invent the wheel as far as money management. I'm over that now.
PARLAYS AND TEASERS
Parlays are the only reason the bank is down at all. Like I said, we worked out the bugs. Teasers can be great - but you must bet a minimum of 2 legs - so again, these are parlays. For the most part - we need to stick to the pro strategy of single straight bets from here on out.
That doesn't prevent you from using our picks as teasers - which has payed off nicely so far for Reid.
ON TO WEEK 12
Not looking to change anything this week. 3 games on Thursday - lotta work to do early - so look for my picks by about 5pm tonight. Travel safe.
BANK STATEMENT
Monday, November 23, 2015
NFL PICKS WEEK 11 MONDAY NIGHT
POSTGAME
(Final) Pats 20 Bills 13 (winner) Bills +7.5
I'm happy to have the win. But - Bills should have won outright. Beat themselves all night. Defense dominated Pats. Brady was throwing F bombs on the sideline. But the offense really let the Bills D down. Run was working - keeping Brady off the field.
Then they kept trying to go deep, wasting series after series. 4 or 5 16 yd routes would have won this for them. Every pass attempt was for 30 or 40 yards. Taylor was double pumping and staring down receivers so long they were out of reach by the time he pulled the trigger. As I have said over and over again, most incomplete passes are thrown behind the receiver.
Don't blame Tyrod - Blame Greg Roman. He did pretty much exactly what I said they can not afford to do (pregame below).
[ "They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them" ]
If you want to beat the Pats you have to "Beat Brady" and "Become Brady". That means getting rid of the ball quickly.
BTW I mentioned the Pistol Offense (pregame below). Greg Roman was credited with bringing that to SF. He did not invent it - just stole it from Reno Nevada college coach Chris Ault. He needs to steal another bright idea cause he doesn't have any.
Even the Run plays tonight were ill conceived. Backs were running sideways half the night. The bootleg was wide open out of a 2 back set. They ran it once out of an empty backfield for a huge loss. Taylor and company are immensely talented. Too bad the offensive coordinator is not.
I'm really tired of seeing 25 year old kids look bad because somebody with a headset is overpaid and under skilled.
The good news - if there is any - is that "if" Taylor is OK, and "if" Rex fixes the Offensive play calling - Bills could go 10-6 and we could see a rematch in the NFC championship.
Like I said pregame - the secret is simple
"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.
Rex got it half right tonight.
___________________________________
PREGAME
BUF +7.5 @NE
(Note: we locked in 7.5 at Stations Casino early - Line dropped to -7)
Projected NE 23 BUF 17
(I do think Bills have a chance to win outright tonight - more gut than brains though?)
Hopefully I'm a Bills fan for a good reason. I think I am - Great talent on Offense and a defense that was pretty damn good. Lack of offense can drain a defense. Hopefully with the offensive starters back and clicking - Bills defense won't be so worn out. If I were not a Bills fan I might have stayed off tonights game. NE dominates this Match up statistically.
I predicted that when Tyrod, McCoy, Williams and Watkins got healthy - they would go undefeated. They have so far 2-0. They do have as much talent as any team in the league. I just put $20 on them at 50-1 to win the Superbowl - why not - if they can get past the Pats - they are as good as the rest. This is the one game I did "not" expect them to win.
One Advantage
The Bills have is that Brady is without his go to Receiver Edelman and a cutback speed tailback in Lewis. Blount is great - but leaves the run game somewhat one denominational with just a power back and without a 2nd set of fresh legs. The patriots rely on the short pass game and are not deep In talent at running back. White and Boldin avg less than 3 yds per carry. They do "not" have a 2nd Dion Lewis to fill in.
Only problem here is that the Bills are playing the only team that probably deserves to be undefeated. With the possible exception of the Panthers. Pats have it all on Offense and Defense. The Match up shows that too. Brady has made a living - winning with whomever walks in the revolving door of players in New England. They win every category except Red Zone Defense. Even that has a "BUT" to it - Bills projected at just 33% in the red zone. They have a big play offense - but that wont be the secret to their success tonight if they pull off an upset.....
Cracking the Code
I discovered the secret to winning in the NFL a few years ago. Seahawks had it off and on, and Pats still do. We bet both to win Superbowls and they did. The secret is pretty simple really:
"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.
Defensive lines are too fast to allow time for plays to develop. Offensive lines can not hold off defensive lineman that long. Give Bill Walsh credit for designing the West Coast offense around that problem - long before I noticed it. What boggles my mind is why any offense would even attempt any other offensive strategy. Peyton would still be healthy and starting for the Broncos if they stuck to it. Kubiak is a Moron.
Remember When
The Niner's and Redskin's were unbeatable with the "Pistol" offense? Kaepernick will be selling cars soon and RG3 is holding a clipboard. Nothing lasts forever?
Here's my point...
[ Rex will need to Jam Receivers Off the Line and pressure Brady to win tonight. The only way to stop the quick pass is to keep receivers from getting to their marks. ]
Giants sacked Tom 3 times and almost beat them. Rex will need to establish a Run Game with McCoy and Williams to keep Brady off the field. Period! Do not abandon the run - even if they get down by a TD or two. Tyrod Taylor will also need to take what they give him with a short pass game. They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them. It will be all about first downs and getting to Brady. Rex knows a lot more about football than I do - let's hope it shows tonight.
Go Bills!
HEAD TO HEAD
(Left Click to Enlarge)
(Final) Pats 20 Bills 13 (winner) Bills +7.5
I'm happy to have the win. But - Bills should have won outright. Beat themselves all night. Defense dominated Pats. Brady was throwing F bombs on the sideline. But the offense really let the Bills D down. Run was working - keeping Brady off the field.
Then they kept trying to go deep, wasting series after series. 4 or 5 16 yd routes would have won this for them. Every pass attempt was for 30 or 40 yards. Taylor was double pumping and staring down receivers so long they were out of reach by the time he pulled the trigger. As I have said over and over again, most incomplete passes are thrown behind the receiver.
Don't blame Tyrod - Blame Greg Roman. He did pretty much exactly what I said they can not afford to do (pregame below).
[ "They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them" ]
If you want to beat the Pats you have to "Beat Brady" and "Become Brady". That means getting rid of the ball quickly.
BTW I mentioned the Pistol Offense (pregame below). Greg Roman was credited with bringing that to SF. He did not invent it - just stole it from Reno Nevada college coach Chris Ault. He needs to steal another bright idea cause he doesn't have any.
Even the Run plays tonight were ill conceived. Backs were running sideways half the night. The bootleg was wide open out of a 2 back set. They ran it once out of an empty backfield for a huge loss. Taylor and company are immensely talented. Too bad the offensive coordinator is not.
I'm really tired of seeing 25 year old kids look bad because somebody with a headset is overpaid and under skilled.
The good news - if there is any - is that "if" Taylor is OK, and "if" Rex fixes the Offensive play calling - Bills could go 10-6 and we could see a rematch in the NFC championship.
Like I said pregame - the secret is simple
"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.
Rex got it half right tonight.
___________________________________
PREGAME
BUF +7.5 @NE
(Note: we locked in 7.5 at Stations Casino early - Line dropped to -7)
Projected NE 23 BUF 17
(I do think Bills have a chance to win outright tonight - more gut than brains though?)
Hopefully I'm a Bills fan for a good reason. I think I am - Great talent on Offense and a defense that was pretty damn good. Lack of offense can drain a defense. Hopefully with the offensive starters back and clicking - Bills defense won't be so worn out. If I were not a Bills fan I might have stayed off tonights game. NE dominates this Match up statistically.
I predicted that when Tyrod, McCoy, Williams and Watkins got healthy - they would go undefeated. They have so far 2-0. They do have as much talent as any team in the league. I just put $20 on them at 50-1 to win the Superbowl - why not - if they can get past the Pats - they are as good as the rest. This is the one game I did "not" expect them to win.
One Advantage
The Bills have is that Brady is without his go to Receiver Edelman and a cutback speed tailback in Lewis. Blount is great - but leaves the run game somewhat one denominational with just a power back and without a 2nd set of fresh legs. The patriots rely on the short pass game and are not deep In talent at running back. White and Boldin avg less than 3 yds per carry. They do "not" have a 2nd Dion Lewis to fill in.
Only problem here is that the Bills are playing the only team that probably deserves to be undefeated. With the possible exception of the Panthers. Pats have it all on Offense and Defense. The Match up shows that too. Brady has made a living - winning with whomever walks in the revolving door of players in New England. They win every category except Red Zone Defense. Even that has a "BUT" to it - Bills projected at just 33% in the red zone. They have a big play offense - but that wont be the secret to their success tonight if they pull off an upset.....
Cracking the Code
I discovered the secret to winning in the NFL a few years ago. Seahawks had it off and on, and Pats still do. We bet both to win Superbowls and they did. The secret is pretty simple really:
"3 step drop from shotgun" and a good defense.
Defensive lines are too fast to allow time for plays to develop. Offensive lines can not hold off defensive lineman that long. Give Bill Walsh credit for designing the West Coast offense around that problem - long before I noticed it. What boggles my mind is why any offense would even attempt any other offensive strategy. Peyton would still be healthy and starting for the Broncos if they stuck to it. Kubiak is a Moron.
Remember When
The Niner's and Redskin's were unbeatable with the "Pistol" offense? Kaepernick will be selling cars soon and RG3 is holding a clipboard. Nothing lasts forever?
Here's my point...
[ Rex will need to Jam Receivers Off the Line and pressure Brady to win tonight. The only way to stop the quick pass is to keep receivers from getting to their marks. ]
Giants sacked Tom 3 times and almost beat them. Rex will need to establish a Run Game with McCoy and Williams to keep Brady off the field. Period! Do not abandon the run - even if they get down by a TD or two. Tyrod Taylor will also need to take what they give him with a short pass game. They should look for 1 or 2 deep ball openings - not try to live off them. It will be all about first downs and getting to Brady. Rex knows a lot more about football than I do - let's hope it shows tonight.
Go Bills!
HEAD TO HEAD
(Left Click to Enlarge)
Saturday, November 21, 2015
NFL PICKS WEEEK 11 WEEKEND
Post Game
Decent Start to the week 2-1.. Should be 3-0. A missed extra point by Rams or we would be.
STL +2.5 Lost by 3, 16 -13. 16-14 covers.
Rams defense was superb and led 13-3 only to lose 16-13. Case Keenum had so much potential. Rookies only get a few starts these days. Hie career was on the line and he knew it. He was obviously scared to death of failing and it showed. Troy Aikman was 0-15 before he found his grove. Keenum will never get that game time to develop. Too bad.
This Helps!
This a few Weeks ago
Golf Pays Baby!
GO BILLS!
_______________________________
No sure things this week. Stayed off the really close games and dicey injury match ups - there were a lot of those this week. check our depth charts before you bet games we did not cover.
Just click on the Team Name:
http://happycapper.com/teams.html
I was looking for teams that dominate and to take points vs those who do not this week.
I do Like the players we have money on. The Panthers defense, Hasselbeck & Gore, Case Keenum and Tyrod Taylor.
@CAR -7 vs WAS
IND +5.5 @ATL
STL +2.5 @BAL
BUF +7.5 @NE
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK-VIEW IMAGE TO MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
Decent Start to the week 2-1.. Should be 3-0. A missed extra point by Rams or we would be.
STL +2.5 Lost by 3, 16 -13. 16-14 covers.
Rams defense was superb and led 13-3 only to lose 16-13. Case Keenum had so much potential. Rookies only get a few starts these days. Hie career was on the line and he knew it. He was obviously scared to death of failing and it showed. Troy Aikman was 0-15 before he found his grove. Keenum will never get that game time to develop. Too bad.
This Helps!
This a few Weeks ago
Golf Pays Baby!
GO BILLS!
_______________________________
No sure things this week. Stayed off the really close games and dicey injury match ups - there were a lot of those this week. check our depth charts before you bet games we did not cover.
Just click on the Team Name:
http://happycapper.com/teams.html
I was looking for teams that dominate and to take points vs those who do not this week.
I do Like the players we have money on. The Panthers defense, Hasselbeck & Gore, Case Keenum and Tyrod Taylor.
@CAR -7 vs WAS
IND +5.5 @ATL
STL +2.5 @BAL
BUF +7.5 @NE
HEAD TO HEAD
(LEFT CLICK, RIGHT CLICK-VIEW IMAGE TO MAGNIFY)
BANK RECEIPT
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