NFL PICKS WEEK 8 MONDAY NIGHT 2016

MIN -4.5 @CHI (41)
Projected MIN 26-6 (32)
Pick >  MIN -4.5 

Case for MIN
Vikings should get 3 & Outs Off Bears and capitalize thru the Air.  
They need to Throw First to Open up Run and Take a Lead, Cutler bad from behind.  
Also Cutler projected at 4 Saks. MIN Wins turnovers by +1, So, with Saks I'd give them 2. 
Cutler is just Bad, so is his attitude. CHI Injuries @ WR, RB and LB. Vikings Roll by 10+

Case for CHI
Not much,  They have a good Rush Def. They can stop the MIN Run Game. But would need to step up on Pass Def and Throw the Ball. They wont be able to Run on Vikings 9th Ranked Rush Def. It's a Big Ask. Bears will need Turnovers and Luck to stay in this one.

Head to Head

Fantasy Players 
Start:  
QB: Bradford
WRs: Diggs, Thielen
TE: Rudolph
Sit 
RBs both Teams
Note: MIN Pass may set up Run, Asiata may gets some yards. McKinnon listed (Doubtful)
  

NFL PICKS WEEK 8 2016 (OTHER GAMES)

For you Fantasy Fans!
Next to each Player is his Yards Per Game / TDs Year To Date
Beside that - you will see Projected YPG Vs the Opponent
Also TDs Allowed Per Game by Opponent (Vs)

NFL PICKS WEEK 8 2016

3 BETS THIS WEEK 
9 SYSTEM PICKS

SNAPSHOT

For you Fantasy Fans!
Next to each Player is his Yards Per Game / TDs Year To Date
Beside that - you will see Projected YPG Vs the Opponent
Also TDs Allowed Per Game by Opponent (Vs)
 

HEAD TO HEAD ( Part 1)
(Click, View Image, Magnify)

HEAD TO HEAD (Part 2)

 

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 8 THURSDAY

@ TEN -3 vs JAX (43.5)
Projected TEN 24-20 (40)
(We are OFF this Game) 

As you can see, we have the total and Line about the same as the Sportsbook. 

Case for TEN
They win Big on Rush Offense. So, big night for Murray @ Home Network Night Game?
They also win on Turnovers and JAX loses Big on Rush Offense. So, they should get 3 and Outs, But Titans do "not" dominate on Offense so may not capitalize.  If 3& Outs Tires out JAX Defense the Run should open the Pass and they could Route them, They are projected at 80% in the Red Zone. JAX 40%. Jag's also average over 100 yds per game in Penalties, and are on the Road, another advantage for TEN.

Case for JAX
Not much. But, the TEN 2ndary is hurting with and many as 3 starters out. This could open up the pass for Bortles. If so, they could keep it close.

Total
Off the Total. We project it at 3 UNDER the Total. But If I were to bet both Sides tonight - I'd Take TEN to route them at Home and take it OVER.  

HEAD TO HEAD

NFL PICKS WEEK 7 RECAP

Snap Shot (System Pretty Accurate)
Nearly Called the Exact Score on CIN game. Predicted Tie ARI v SEA. Predicted Total within 1 Point on 5 Games. Accurately Predicted Turnovers by 5 Teams (See Head to Heads) 

System Doing it's Job - Can't Predict Flukes
If you watch the games we handicap, it's like having a crystal ball. The predicted tendencies almost always show up. However, there are some things you just can't predict, Like: 

1. CHI vs GB
As Predicted: Chicago Defense Stalled Rodgers. Was staying within 7.  
Fluke: Hoyer Broken Arm, Rookie with NO Snaps finished the game = 3 & Outs = GB Win

2. WAS vs DET
As Predicted: WAS Dominated DET on Defense,
Fluke: WAS 2 Fumbles on Scoring Drives, 2 Missed FGs.


3. BUF vs MIA
As Predicted: Played a Weak Rush Defense with a Strong Pass defense
Fluke: 1 Run Option = TD for Bills. The Bills did Nothing but Pass, = 3 and Outs = Loss.

4. BAL vs NYJ
As Predicted: BAL Defense dominated vs Gino
Fluke: Jets QB Fitz was reported as (OUT) for this game - He (PLAYED)  and won.

5. CIN vs CLE
As Predicted: Bengals Dominated and Covered 10 easy.


6. HOU vs DEN UNDER
As Predicted: Seriously? Called the Under perfectly. Texans 6-0 1st Qtr
Fluke: HOU Fumble Red Zone, Incomplete Pass Ruled Fumble?


This can't keep happening every week, Gonna trust the system the be ahead by year end. If it doesn't work, I replace myself with a Monkey and a Dart Board. 

Record / Bank Balance

NFL PICK WEEK 7 MONDAY NIGHT 2016

@DEN -8.5 vs HOU (40.5)
Projected DEN 17-9 (26) 
Gut Pick HOU 20-17 (37) 
2 team Parlay $50 
HOU +8.5 Under (40.5)
(Unqualified) System Pick  

Tendencies
I see similar tendencies in this game as we did in last weeks DEN vs SD game. 3 and Outs, but neither team capitalizing on Offense. This led to an Under and a Moneyline Cover by the Dog SD.  

DEN does have the stronger Pass Def, and Wins the T/O Match Up by 2. They are projected to Sack Osweiler 3 times. So there is a chance DEN blows them Out and Takes it Over. But DEN does NOT win any Offensive Match Ups, Projected only 56% in Red Zone, and Wins by an average of 2. HOU only loses by and avg of -3. Line -8.5

HOU Loses the Offensive Match Ups and only projected at 48% in the red Zone. But Lamar Miller could Rush for over 75 yds. If they stay patient and Run, they could set up the Pass and Keep it Close or Even Win? Osweiler would like to make Elway and the Broncos regret trading him, and has the advantage of having practiced against this DEN Defense.

Total 
Anytime you have a lot of 3 and Outs, You can get a Route and a Late score by the Victim = Over. But with Neither team wining any Offensive match Ups - It should stay Low, bore us to tears and hopefully make us some money. 

Summary
50/50? DEN could blow them out and take it over. But 60% chance or better HOU Covers and it stays Under. Even at 50-50 a 1 in 2 chance Pays 2.5 to 1.  HOU +8.5 / Under

HEAD TO HEAD

  

NFL PICKS WEEK 7 2016 (System Picks)

For you Fantasy Fans!
Next to each Player is his Yards Per Game / TDs Year To Date
Beside that - you will see Projected YPG Vs the Opponent
Also TDs Allowed Per Game by Opponent (Vs)

HEAD TO HEAD 
(Click, View Image, Magnify)

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 7 2016 (Other Games)

For you Fantasy Fans!
Next to each Player is his Yards Per Game / TDs Year To Date
Beside that - you will see Projected YPG Vs the Opponent
Also TDs Allowed Per Game by Opponent (Vs)

Injury Note
We do not check all injuries on Other Games
Go the the link (below), Click on Team, and check Latest Depth Chart Injuries:  
http://happycapper.com/teams.html

Head to Head Part 1 (Games we did Not Bet)
 (Click),View Image, Magnify)

Head to Head Part 2 (Games we did Not Bet)
 (Click),View Image, Magnify)

WEEK 7 THURSDAY NIGHT 2016

@GB -7.5 vs CHI (46.5)
Projected CHI 26-23

SYSTEM PICK CHI +7.5 

GB
Loses the Matchup Rushing. That is made worse by the absence of Both starting RBs. 
CHI RushD is Top 10, but PassD is 20th. Aaron is a great QB, but no Run game will not make it easy for him to end his slump. The key will be short passes to great receivers. Otherwise No Run game games more pressure on one the Best but also Most Sacked QBs in history. 

CHI
Can Pass on a Weak GB PassD. If RB Jordan Howard (74 YPG) gets going, they could put a win together

TOTAL
Both Teams will have Success Passing, But - Both Defenses are Stingy inside the 20. Both are projected around 45% Scoring TDs in the red Zone tonight. So that is really conflicting. The Scoring Projections have them 26-23 (49).

WEEK 6 RECAP

Panthers didn't show up until the 2nd Half.
Steelers showed up for about 5 Minutes. Todd Haley's Offense screwed us Again.
and Our Parlay 2-1. 
3-2 for the Week

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 6 MONDAY NIGHT

@ARI -7 vs NYJ (45.5)
Projected ARI 29-16
(off this Game) 

The 2-3 Cards art 1-2 @Home. The 1-4 Jets have played are harder schedule. 

Case For Cards
NYJ has a tough (8th Ranked) Rush Defense but Weak (25th) Pass Defense. If Palmer comes out throwing they Roll and set up the Run. RB Johnson has mad skills - just don't put the game on his back early. 

Injury Note: 
Jets Starting LB (David Harris) with 25 tackles is Doubtful tonight. This could help the Cards Run Game. 

Case For Jets
The Cards have a Weak Rush Defense. So NYJ needs to have the exact opposite game plan of ARI. Be patient, establish the Run to open up the Pass. This would also keep Palmer and Fitzgerald "off" the field vs the Jets (25th) Pas Defense. 


Total
If Jets can keep Palmer Off the field, it could go under. At the same time, Cards could score and Jets use the Run to set up the Pass and join the party = Over. 

Summary
We're (Off) this Game. Cards should Roll, but if they play they're "Cards" right, Jets could steal this one. I have a little $40 Moneyline on Jets with the Over just for fun and $240. But that pic is as much about how to make any money on a 2 teamer with $40 - as any prediction of a Jets Victory. Only took the Over so my bets not dead in the 3rd quarter if they both do score.

HEAD TO HEAD

 

NFL PICKS WEEK 6 2016

I Finally Finished Fine Tuning the Head to Head System Grid. If you take the time to read it, it actually provides a lot of good insight into each game. Good Luck...

It Features:

Head to Head Team Match Ups

Head to Head Players Stats 

Injury Data 

HEAD TO HEAD
(System Picks Only)

BANK BET
Notes: QB Stats Updated 
Not Great Match Up for ATL, you may wanna Substitute BUF for ATL?
They did just beat 2 Good Defenses - CAR , DEN, so I'll leave them on there 

OTHER GAMES

NFL PICKS WEEK 6 THURSDAY NIGHT

Denver didn't listen. I had SD Money Line! 
Off the Record. With the Over. Sigh...

https://twitter.com/RickOnTheStrip
________________

Tonight Game is another Box of Chocolates. 

SD Wins Rush Offense Big, but Loses Big on Pass Offense.

DEN Wins Pass Offense Big - But Loses Big on Rush Offense. 

Recipe for DEN Win:
Denver needs to Go Tom Brady tonight. The Pats survived a decade without a decent running back. They did so (and still do) by getting rid of the ball quickly - with 3 Step Drop Passing. DEN should do the same tonight. The Broncos 26th Rush Offense won't Run well vs SD 10th Rush Def, Don't try. Siemian is Vulnerable to Saks anyway. If he hangs in the pocket or wait for plays to develop they risk a loss. On the other hand - SD is 23rd in Pass Defense, short passes will set up Big Scores for 2 premier WRs. Denver also wins the Turnover match up if they don't take saks.

Recipe for SD Win
The Chargers are at Home. IF SD establishes the Run w/ Gordon (6 TDs), It could Open up the Pass Game. Rivers has Targets worth about 200 yds tonight (See Head to Head). But they must Avoid Turnovers and Score TDs in the Red Zone. Two things they have Failed to do very often this season. They are also weak in Red Zone Defense. The Run is there and it is Key! SD 7th Rush Offense vs DEN 22nd Rush Defense. This would Keep a Talented Pass team Off the Field and open up the pass. They also need to get to Siemian when he's on the field. They can - he's projected at 3+ Sacks tonight.  

Head to Head
(Check Out Our New Player match Up!)

NFL PICKS WEEK 5 RECAP

SYSTEM RESULTS

BANK BALANCE SUNDAY

BANK BALANCE MONDAY

NFL PICKS WEEK 5 MONDAY NIGHT

@CAR -5.5 vs TB (45.5)
Projected CAR 34-17 (51)

I have added a great deal of Player and Injury data to the System. Good night for that. Both Teams have a Laundry List of Injuries. 4 Def Linemen Did Not Practice for TB. The Result - Adding a System Pick:

CAR -5.5 and The Over (45.5)
  HEAD TO HEAD
(Click,View Image,Magnify)

 

BANK BET

NFL PICKS WEEK 5 THURSDAY NIGHT

Post
I ended up taking 10 points off for Stanton. -7 plus -3 the system added for projected 3 & outs by SF = -10. Right fully so, kind of. If you watch the game - his completion % was horrific as predicted.  But, if you add those 10 points back - the System called the exact final score of ARI.  Even being off a little on SF - it called the Side and the Over (43).

Total Posted: 23 -16

System Total: 33 -16

Final Score: 33-21  
__________________________ 

ARI -4 @SF (43)

We are Off Tonight's Game. 

ARI
At first I had Cards by 20, But, Stanton Career stats avg 1 TD per game. Adjusted with Palmer out - AZ by 7. But, it all comes down to how well Stanton plays. He will be without his starting TE, usually a safety net for a Back Up QB.

SF
SF is Bad too, near last in Pass Offense and Rush Defense. But, Both teams will Run Well and Niners are at home. 

The Spread (-4) Now (-3.5)
is a slippery slope. If Cards Roll, they cover 4 easy. But if Stanton struggles and AZ :Loses or even wins by a FG - that minus 4, or even -3.5 becomes a deadly hook.
 
The Total (43)
 is no Picnic either. AZ is 10th in Pass Offense, but SF top 15 Pass Defense, A Weak SF Rush defense could open up that pass game and take it over.   

HEAD TO HEAD 

NFL PICKS WEEK 5 2016

Once again, I do not love this weeks game match ups. Parody is slowing the separation of contenders and pretenders. But, I found 2 I'll go with...

Patriots
I think NE has been saving Gronk as a welcome home gift for Brady. The Pats should Run easily on Browns. This will take the pressure off Tom and open up the Pass Game. The CLE Red Zone Defense allows 80% TDs inside the 20. They do not officially qualify as a System Pick. But, Pats Run it up on some a few times per yr. This could be the week. Its a big spread, but I added 7 for Brady's return, Gronk is 100% too - more like 10-14. That would put it at about 35-20

Eagles (Pick of the Week)
PHI Dominates the Match up across the board. Lions weak Offense vs a Strong PHI Defense.

HEAD TO HEAD

BANK PICK 

NFL PICKS WEEK 4 (RECAP) 2016

Parody Out of Control!
For the 2nd week in a row, Sportsbooks cleaned up and handicappers got clobbered.
Think about it. The season started with NE, CAR, DEN, ARI, PIT and NYG looking like the top teams. None of them have established any consistent dominance. BUF, LA, and MIN are on winning streaks? 

Gut vs Stats
I try not to let my gut feelings about games take president over System Picks. However, So far this year, My gut feelings have been pretty good, and ignoring them have cost us losses. 90% plus Experts Picked Lions and Cards. I had reservations about both and posted an actual ticket with Rams Moneyline. The simple solution is, if those conflict - stay off the game. Not because I have a crystal ball, just because, like you, I watch these games, and see things that can effect next weeks outcome. 

Statistical Accuracy
The accuracy of NFL stats increase as as each week of play is completed. Historically, by week 4 or 5, several teams have established a pattern of strength or weakness.
Parody dilutes or delays that accuracy. However, our system has a proven track record of measuring those strengths and weaknesses. This should start to pay dividends by exposing contenders and pretenders.

Progressive Parlay Works!
We bet an average of $50 per week. We have had 1 Winning week out of 4 and are only down 1 unit or $50! That is Amazing! Our system will compile more data each week and teams will assume scoring patterns for the rest of the season. Once this happens our Progressive Bank should show excellent gains.
  
Note: System Called Exact Score IND vs JAC
Head to Head Results

Bank Balance

NFL PICKS MONDAY NIGHT WEEK 4

@MIN -4.5 vs NYG (43)
Projected:NYG 20-6 (26) 
We bet on Open NYG+5

We have a Horse in the Race Tonight! 
Unlike DET and ARI, where my Gut said Dog and the Stats said Favorite - I agree with the system (NYG) on this one. 90% plus of the experts picks DET and ARI. That scared me to begin with. I actually have a ticket for Rams moneyline.

The goal is to follow a system that will give us more wins than losses. So far it has for 5 years, and this year too. The hard part is what to do when Gut and Stats conflict. I realized today - the answer is simple. Just don't bet those games. Our gut tells us things for a reason, most of the time.



Tonight's Game Lines Up. 

Vikings
Statistically, Giants win the match up Outright (See All White Below) and are getting almost 5  points. We got 5 on an early system bet. From a Gut standpoint, Bradford has always been considered a 2nd tier QB. Now he's heralded as the 2nd coming for the Vikings. Maybe he is?
But I'm not sold yet. His Completion rate is only 60%. The Vikings do have a good defense though and that may be the key to Bradford's success. A good defense produces 3 and outs. This gives your QB good field position and Mulligans. More reps and chances to score. However, the offense is near last in Rush and Pass Offense yardage. They are also near last in Red Zone Offense 29%, and Red Zone Defense gives up 71%. 

Giants
NYG only score 45% n the red Zone, but allow only 25%. They wont run on MIN, neither team will. Both teams lose that RO vs RD match up big. But NYG is 5th in Pass offense. 
By wining the Head to Head outright, they become a Moneyline option tonight at +180.

The Under
Both teams will struggle to run. This will put pressure on the QBs to pass. Giants will pass better. However, 2 good defenses should keep it under. My only fear is that 3 and outs = route and with MIN allowing 71% in the red zone - the score could go up. But with 2 Red Zone Offenses under 50%, and total TDs projected under 5 -  I think the under is a pretty safe bet. I have it at (26) 18 under the total. If I'm off by 2 TDs, still under.

HEAD TO HEAD 

Spare Cash
We bet in increments of $50. We have $470 in the bank. So, there's $20 spare cash on hand. I'll spend it on a Parlay - NYG Moneyline (+180) and the Under (43) tonight to make $87.

Added Bank Bet

NFL PICKS WEEK 4 [NEW GRID]

I've been aware for sometime now that our Head to Head System Grid looks like a box of crayons exploded. I use color to show strength and weakness - so they stand out. However, in an effort to prevent anyone from having a seizure, or going blind reading it - I toned it down considerably. 

It's a lot of data, but I've always tried to give as much info as possible, so you can make educated decisions. We've always been a mix of the only NFL Head to Head stat source, and a handicapper. I have added QB Completion % and condensed the chart in size as well.
It works about the same as the previous chart. 

There are 5 Categories:

Head to Head (H2H TOT)
This one shows you who Wins the Overall Match up Head to Head, (Qualified or Not) 
The Total  it Wins the Head to Head "by" is in Light Green.  Also, whichever team wins each category  RO, PO, etc, appears in White.

Head to Head Qualified (Q)
This shows if the Winning Team Qualifies as a System Pick (Head to Head) 
Favorites must win by 20 or more and project 60% or better int he red Zone.
Dogs just need to win the Head to head by 10 or more. 
If a Team Qualifies Head to Head - a Light Green Check Mark Appears.
 
Example: Pats win the match up by 30 and project to Cover by 14.5, But only project at 50% in the Red Zone, as a Favorite giving 5. So, New England does not qualify as a System Pick.

Cover the Spread [By] (Q)
As always a team must cover by 4 or more. Example: A Team -3 must project to Win by 7.
If a Team Covers the Spread by 4 - a Light Brown Check Mark appears. 
 
System Picks
To Qualify: 1. Win Match Up. 2. Qualify H2H. 3 Cover Spread by 4. 
Qualified System Pick Team Names stand out in White on Black.

Over and Unders
This takes the Book Total, compares it to Our Total [Us] and shows the difference, or 
[DIF] on the far right - it must be greater than  +10 Over (Blue) or -10 Under (Red).
That's just scoring though. If the two teams also show extreme Head to head data to suggest an Over or Under - [Ovr] or [Und] will appear beside that game. (None this week).  

The System qualified one more team, Titans, But not adding it this late in the game this week, as we already posted system on Thursday, 

Hope you like it. Comments and critics welcome.

-Rick Jansen

HEAD TO HEAD

(Left click, Right click - View Image, Magnify)