Projected DEN 17-9 (26)
Gut Pick HOU 20-17 (37)
2 team Parlay $50
HOU +8.5 Under (40.5)
(Unqualified) System Pick
Tendencies
I see similar tendencies in this game as we did in last weeks DEN vs SD game. 3 and Outs, but neither team capitalizing on Offense. This led to an Under and a Moneyline Cover by the Dog SD.
DEN does have the stronger Pass Def, and Wins the T/O Match Up by 2. They are projected to Sack Osweiler 3 times. So there is a chance DEN blows them Out and Takes it Over. But DEN does NOT win any Offensive Match Ups, Projected only 56% in Red Zone, and Wins by an average of 2. HOU only loses by and avg of -3. Line -8.5
HOU Loses the Offensive Match Ups and only projected at 48% in the red Zone. But Lamar Miller could Rush for over 75 yds. If they stay patient and Run, they could set up the Pass and Keep it Close or Even Win? Osweiler would like to make Elway and the Broncos regret trading him, and has the advantage of having practiced against this DEN Defense.
Total
Anytime you have a lot of 3 and Outs, You can get a Route and a Late score by the Victim = Over. But with Neither team wining any Offensive match Ups - It should stay Low, bore us to tears and hopefully make us some money.
Summary
50/50? DEN could blow them out and take it over. But 60% chance or better HOU Covers and it stays Under. Even at 50-50 a 1 in 2 chance Pays 2.5 to 1. HOU +8.5 / Under
HEAD TO HEAD
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