MONDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 12 2013

POST GAME

Man am I stupid!  I Knew SF was an easy cover. But I had 1 loss on a late 4 team parlay. So I needed a 2 team parlay for last night.  I was looking at the Over / Under to make it two teams. A close betting associate told me I was way too low on my original total. The book agreed. I was 13 under the Book Total (47).

The system had projected the total at 24 - 10  (34). (See Week 12 Matchups - below) 
So, I added and subtracted to get closer to the Book Total  -which I respect.
Came up with 48 and took the Over.

Final Score 27 - 6 (33). 
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SF - 5.5 @ WAS. Projected Score ( 31 - 17)

Niners: (31)
Was 25th Pass Def / 28th Rush Def vs SF Offense. SF also wins Field Pos Stats Big.  Subtracted -3 for Long Road Trip and SF still covers by (8.5). RG3 and Skins in turmoil. Too much Offense for the Skins Defense to handle. Cold 33 - but #1 Rush Offense easy Yards for Niners vs 28th Rush Def - giving less than a TD. 

Redskins: (17)
Was good Off Line (4th) and Rush Off vs 25th Def Line. But lousy Punter and FG%.

I updated the Matchup after giving it some extra time.

The Over under is a Tough Call. Cold and Mostly a Rush Dominated Matchup. 
31-17 best guess = 48 - Book Total 47.

http://www.happycapper.com/W12SF-WAS.html
The smart money is on (SF) and leave the Over Under alone.